Movie projector: ‘Night at the Museum’ could make $80 M in four days, ‘Terminator’ $70 M in five

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Hollywood could be looking at its biggest Memorial Day weekend ever.

With two big-budget ‘event’ films opening and both expected to perform very well, if not quite spectacularly, total ticket sales Friday through Monday could easily surpass the $254.6-million record that, according to Hollywood.com Box Office, was set in 2007.

It has been four years since studios released two major pictures against each other over Memorial Day weekend. But ‘Terminator Salvation,’ which will attract primarily men, and ‘Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian,’ a family film, appeal to entirely different audiences, meaning they’re unlikely to substantially cut into each other.

Neither ‘Terminator,’ which Warner Bros. opened today, nor ‘Museum,’ which Fox debuts tomorrow, are expected to do as well as the last three movies to launch on Memorial Day weekend. ‘Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull,’ ‘Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End,’ and ‘X-Men: The Last Stand’ all grossed substantially more than $100 million over four days.

Pre-release tracking indicates ‘Terminator Salvation’ could make around $70 million by Monday. The fourth film in the 25-year-old series grossed $3 million from midnight shows last night and is, according to people following ticket sales, likely to gross in the low teens today.

Last year on the Thursday before Memorial Day, ‘Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull’ grossed $25 million and went on to gross $152 million by Monday.

‘Terminator Salvation,’ which cost about $200 million, was financed by Halcyon Co. and is being distributed by Warner domestically and Sony Pictures overseas, where it will launch in two weeks.

‘Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian’ is tracking even stronger and should benefit from the lack of other family movies in the marketplace. It will easily surpass the $30.4-million opening of the first ‘Night at the Museum’ in December of 2006 and could earn more than $80 million over four days. It’s playing at 160 Imax theaters, which should provide an extra boost to the grosses.

‘Smithsonian’ opens simultaneously in every major foreign market except Japan, Mexico, South Korea and China. The original ‘Night at the Museum’ performed better overseas, where it grossed $323.6 million, compared with $250.9 million in the U.S. and Canada.

Also opening this weekend is Paramount’s ‘Dance Flick,’ a spoof of dancing movies such as ‘Step Up’ from the Wayans Brothers. It’s targeting a narrow niche of teenage girls and probably will gross only around $10 million.

Updates: Full box office analysis from Tuesday’s Los Angeles Times; Friday box office grosses; ‘Terminator’s’ Thursday performance

--Ben Fritz