Opening day: ‘Night at the Museum 2’ has a solid start, ‘Terminator’ losing momentum

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Fox’s ‘Night at the Museum: Battle for the Smithsonian’ grossed $15.3 million Friday, slightly ahead of the $14.85 million earned by Warner Bros. ‘Terminator Salvation.’

‘Museum’ is on track to sell between $65 million and $75 million worth of tickets by Monday, a solid performance given its studio-estimated $125-million budget and well within expectations for the weekend based on pre-release audience polling.

But most industry experts had expected ‘Terminator’ to win the day given that it appeals to older audiences more likely to go to the movies on a Friday night. In addition, films that open the Thursday before Memorial Day usually see a significant increase in ticket sales on their second day. ‘Terminator’ was up only 11% from its $13.37 million debut, a somewhat discouraging trend.

The film, which is being distributed domestically by Warner Bros. for The Halcyon Co. and cost about $200 million, is on track to gross around $50 million for the four-day weekend. Add in the Thursday numbers and its total ticket sales should be between $60 million and $65 million. That’s a relatively soft start, particularly given how quickly action movies tend to fade at the summer box office.

The one exception to that rule continues to be Paramount’s ‘Star Trek,’ which was down a relatively modest 51% on its third Friday, grossing $5.8 million. It was just a bit below the $6 million worth of tickets sold by Sony Pictures ‘Angels and Demons,’ which declined 64% from a week ago, a more typical drop for a summer event film. ‘Star Trek’ should end up grossing around $30 million for the four- day weekend, while ‘Angels’ will be in the mid-20s.

Paramount’s spoof movie ‘Dance Flick,’ the weekend’s only other wide release, earned $3.9 million Friday, indicating it will gross in the low- to mid-teens by Monday, which is in line with projections for the low-budget film from the Wayans brothers.

Despite earlier hopes that it could be a huge holiday for the movie industry, the Memorial Day weekend is no longer looking too hot. Total ticket sales might not even be up from 2008, bucking the hugely positive trend seen so far this year.

Update: Read the full box office analysis from Tuesday’s Los Angeles Times.

-- Ben Fritz