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Last minute poll in New York City's special House election finds Republican leading

September 7, 2011 |  9:24 am

anthony Weiner

Remember New York's disgraced Democrat Anthony Weiner, the representative who shared his junk online with too many people?

Well, forget him. He's gone now, resigned.

Next Tuesday is the special election in New York's reliably Democratic Ninth congressional district to replace him.

And, breaking news, the Ninth seems to be no longer reliably Democratic. Whether it's Weiner or Obama's fault or a combo, we don't know. And who cares?

If the latest poll numbers from Magellan Strategies hold up six more days, the new New York representative from Brooklyn/Queens will be Republican Bob Turner . And the GOP will have at least temporarily turned its tide of special election losses.

The news this week will be President Obama's meaningless jobs speech to a joint session of Congress tomorrow evening. None of what he says he seeks will happen, which he knows and hopes. Because how's he going to run against a Republican House next year if he asked for something now he knew they'd give him?

It's Kabuki theatre at its most amateur. But that's where we all are right now because while Obama is still saying 'Yes, We Can,' he can't explain why we haven't these last 32 months. Obviously, it couldn't be his fault. Nothing ever is.

Anyway, Magellan surveyed 2,055 likely voters in the Ninth and found Turner leading Democrat David Weprin by four points, 44.6-40.4, with 36% firmly committed to Turner and only 28% firm for Weprin.

Interestingly, Obama's job approval there is 36%, compared with 52% disapprove.

If Turner wins, a Republican will soon sit in Weiner's presumably sanitized House seat. And a week from this morning the news will be all about what the latest defeat means for Obama.

Honestly, not much, just more bad PR to endure along with the sagging poll numbers. A loss won't change the balance in the House, which is overwhelmingly GOP now thanks to the historic voter turnaround in last November's midterms.

But the No. 9 would become the latest symbol of mounting political trouble for president No. 44.


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-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photo: Meagan Broussard / ABC News (Weiner).