Opinion: John McCain can’t make it in New York, and he long ago knew it

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Let’s give John McCain’s staff credit for knowing, several months ago, when to fold ‘em.

As the Ticket noted at the time, the Republican presidential campaign went through the formality of establishing a campaign headquarters to serve heavily Democratic New York -- and located it in New Jersey. A new survey by pollsters associated with Marist College in Poughkeepsie, N.Y., speaks to the wisdom of that move. It shows that among likely voters in New York, Barack Obama enjoys a crushing 36-percentage-point lead over McCain (65% to 29%).

Ronald Reagan was the last GOP presidential candidate to carry New York -- in 1984 -- and Democrats have cruised to victory there in the last four elections for the White House. Obama, though, seems to have a shot at exceeding his party’s high-water mark in the state: the 28-point win Bill Clinton posted there in 1996 over Bob Dole and Ross Perot.

Unlike New York, New Jersey once looked like it held some potential for McCain. Back in mid-September, a Marist poll and a couple of others showed him competitive there.

No more, according to the new poll; the numbers from Marist put Obama ahead among likely voters by 17 points (56% to 39%).

McCain is not without his own redoubts. A new poll from South Carolina, for instance, puts him up by 20 points (55% to 35%).

Surveys by the same pollsters -- Winthrop/ETV -- gave Obama the barest of edges, 1 point, in both Virginia (better news for McCain than other recent polls there) and North Carolina (bad news for him in a state that typically would safely be in the Republican column at this point.).

-- Don Frederick