Opinion: National electoral map: Ominous Obama trend against McCain

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It’s only three electoral votes, but new state polls in once reliably Republican North Dakota have shifted the state from the column of Sen. John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin.

And new state poll research provided to The Ticket by Karl Rove & Co. now puts that state in the tossup column. Not a good sign for the GOP this close to Nov. 4.

The hypothetical electoral vote count by Rove now gives Barack Obama 313, 43 more than necessary for victory, while McCain has 171 and 54 electoral votes remain in the tossup category.

‘McCain,’ Rove notes, ‘needs to begin moving states out of Obama’s column to remain competitive.’

Click on the Read more line below to view a weekly chart of the electoral vote movements since July 1 and for an explanation of the research’s methodology.

— Andrew Malcolm

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For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the most recent poll available in each state.

For example, if the most recent poll in Montana was taken on July 15, the average includes all polls conducted between July 1 and July 15. States within a three- point lead for McCain or Obama are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective candidate.

There is no polling data available for the District of Columbia, but its three electoral votes are allocated to Obama.

This national electoral map and weekly chart are published courtesy of Karl Rove & Co.