Opinion: National electoral map: McCain loses Nevada to Obama as time grows short

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As history predicts, national polls began showing a distinct tightening in the presidential race between the Republican ticket of Sen. John McCain and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and Democratic Sens. Barack Obama and Joe Biden this week.

But with time running out before Tuesday’s balloting -- and millions already having voted early -- state polls, which usually do trail national surveys, have yet to show any discernible movement toward McCain, according to new research just released by Karl Rove & Co.

Sixty-six new state polls since The Ticket last published this map on Sunday have seen Obama’s leads solidify and moved Nevada’s five electoral votes from the tossup category to Obama’s column.

This gives the freshman Illinois senator 311 hypothetical electoral votes to McCain’s 157 and 70 still tossups. (270 are needed for victory.)

McCain’s road is growing steeper as he must, according to Rove, pick up all the remaining tossup states plus win several larger states, such as Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

--Andrew Malcolm

But there’s no doubt about the outcome of Ticket readers registering here to receive free alerts to their cellphone when each new Ticket item is posted.

National electoral map and chart below published courtesy of Karl Rove & Co.

For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (Internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the most recent poll available in each state.

For example, if the most recent poll in Montana was taken on July 15, the average includes all polls conducted between July 1 and July 15. States within a 3-point lead for McCain or Obama are classified as tossups; states outside the 3-point lead are allocated to the respective candidate.

There is no polling data available for the District of Columbia, but its three electoral votes are allocated to Obama.

Published by Top of the Ticket with permission of Karl Rove & Co.