Opinion: New national electoral map: Obama’s lead grows, McCain loses more

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A flood of new state polls the last couple of days -- virtually one new survey an hour -- has widened the hypothetical electoral college lead of Barack Obama to its largest size yet, according to the latest state poll research published today by Karl Rove & Co.

Obama now holds 317 electoral votes (see map below) to 157 for John McCain-Sarah Palin ticket, and 64 more votes remain in the tossup category.

New poll results in Indiana turned that traditionally Republican state from McCain’s column into Obama’s, while new results from Montana pushed the Big Sky state from McCain’s camp into tossup. (The research methodology can be reviewed by clicking on the ‘Read more’ line below.)

Rove adds one cautionary note: ‘From here to the end, these electoral college maps will be slow to reflect last-minute shifts in opinion since they are based on an average of state polls over a two-week period.’

A fascinating chart showing the presidential race’s weekly ups and downs from July 1 is also viewable by clicking the ‘Read more’ line below.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (Internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the most recent poll available in each state.

For example, if the most recent poll in Montana was taken on July 15, the average includes all polls conducted between July 1 and July 15. States within a 3-point lead for McCain or Obama are classified as tossups; states outside the 3-point lead are allocated to the respective candidate.

There is no polling data available for the District of Columbia, but its 3 electoral votes are allocated to Obama.

Published by Top of the Ticket with permission of Karl Rove & Co.