Opinion: Ted Stevens tanks
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Pollsters and pundits alike have waited in vain this political season for ‘bounces’ in the presidential race -- a swell of support for Mike Huckabee after he won the Iowa caucuses, a billowing of backing for Hillary Clinton after her upset victory in the New Hampshire primary, a surge for Barack Obama at any number of points.
Implosion, however, apparently remains a phenomenon, as in Alaska’s closely watched Senate race. Not surprisingly, a new poll finds that Ted Stevens’ indictment last week on federal charges related to a corruption probe has taken an immediate toll on the Republican’s reelection prospects.
In a masterful bit of timing, Alaskan pollster Ivan Moore had checked the status of Stevens’ reelection bid in mid-July, before before the charges were filed. Already singed by scandals that have roiled the GOP in his home state, Stevens trailed his Democratic challenger, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, but not by much. The numbers then were Begich 51%, Stevens 43% (the survey’s error margin was plus or minus 4.4 percentage points).
In Washington, where Stevens has served in the Senate for almost 40 years, few were prepared to bet against him.
But pollster Moore went back into the field for two days following the indictment and found Begich expanding his 8-point advantage to 21 points. In the new survey, 56% backed him, while Stevens’ support drooped to 35% (the error margin for this poll was plus or minus 4.8 points).
Stevens, who has proclaimed his innocence and asked for a trial that wraps up before the general election, remained far ahead of several heretofore little-known foes in his party’s primary, set for Aug. 26.
His numbers did slip in the primary matchup, but no doubt many of Alaska’s rank-and-file Republicans will be loath to turn away who has been the party’s most dominant figure for years. If he does clear the primary hurdle, his political fate seemingly will be riding on whether an expedited trial occurs -- and whether he is then acquitted (a guilty verdict presumably would sink him at the polls in November).
Moore’s mid-July poll reported voter leanings in the presidential race in Alaska -- one of several traditionally GOP states Obama has targeted in his advertising campaign. John McCain led, but barely, 47% to 44%.
Commentary on the new poll on the Senate race at RealClearPolitics.com noted that as Democrat Begich becomes the favorite, ‘an emerging question then becomes whether Alaska voters are willing to vote for the Democrat atop the ticket. With Obama trailing by just three points, well within the margin of error, his investment in the state looks more prescient at the moment.’
-- Don Frederick