Opinion: Ticket electoral map: McCain gains as Obama’s convention nears
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No states changed their category in the past week, although in 13 states local polls showed continued movement toward Republican Sen. John McCain, away from Democrat Sen. Barack Obama.
Among the most important, the Rove research reveals, is ‘Ohio with 20 electoral votes, which went from dead even last week to a three-point McCain lead this week, just on the cusp of moving out of toss-up territory.’
‘In Colorado with nine electoral votes, McCain further narrowed Obama’s edge to just a point. McCain also solidified his lead in Missouri and North Carolina while cutting Obama’s margin to just five points in both Minnesota and Pennsylvania with 31 electoral votes between them.
‘Obama’s electoral lead still stands at 260 votes to McCain’s 194 with 84 toss-up votes, but another good week for McCain will undoubtedly see the Electoral College tighten.’
On the other hand, the nation is heading into a week certain to be dominated by news of Obama’s vice presidential pick and the four days of the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Monday through Thursday.
On Friday, Aug. 29, McCain is expected to try and abort any Obama post-convention bounce by announcing his GOP running mate at a rally in Dayton, Ohio.
Previous weeks’ maps are available by clicking on Electoral Map or Electoral College in the subject cloud in the righthand column of this blog. Methodology of the research and a chart showing weekly results since March are available by clicking on the Read more line below.
-- Andrew Malcolm
Map and research reprinted courtesy of Rove&Co.
METHODOLOGY
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Montana was taken on July 15, the average includes all polls conducted between June 15 and July 15.
States within a three-point lead for McCain or Obama are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective candidate.
There is no polling data available for the District of Columbia, but its three electoral votes are allocated to Obama.