Opinion: With primaries over, challenges are clear for Barack Obama
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The political drama of the day seems to be when will Hillary Clinton quit, but the real issue facing the Democrats now is how to retool themselves for the fall showdown with John McCain. And as our colleague Doyle McManus points out in today’s paper, Barack Obama has some clear strengths, and some decided weaknesses, to work on -- many of them exposed by the same primary and caucus process he narrowly survived to claim he has enough delegates to win the nomination at the August convention. Writes McManus:
‘Even while celebrating his improbable achievement Tuesday night, Obama faced stinging reminders of challenges he has yet to overcome.
‘He lost the primary election in South Dakota, as senior citizens and working-class white voters defiantly stuck with a fading Hillary Rodham Clinton, exit polls showed. Both voter groups are considered crucial to victory in November. ‘After controversies over his former pastor and other issues, Obama has lost ground among the independent voters who are important in any presidential election. In February, 63% of independents said they had a favorable impression of the Illinois senator; last month, that number was down to 49%, the Pew Research Center said.’
It’s worth taking a moment to recall what’s happened so far, because sometimes the full weight of history is hard to feel when you’re in the midst of it. With the nation at war and the economy teetering on recession, a white woman -- a former first lady no less -- and a biracial man were the last two serious nomination contenders in a Democratic primary battle that lasted five months, burned through $400 million and shattered state voter-turnout records for primary elections and caucuses.
On the Republican side, we could well have witnessed the end of the dominant influence of social conservatives within the party, a role that has had a deep effect on national policies going back to the rise of Ronald Reagan a quarter-century ago.
And the fall general election could well be just as historic, as the Vietnam War generation squares off against those for whom that war exists in textbooks rather than personal memory. It also will likely be a fight over class -- the white working-class -- as well as Latinos, and independent and moderate Democratic women.
And, after eight years of an increasingly unpopular administration, and with Congress already shifted from Republican control to Democratic, the Fall could complete a realignment that began with the 2006 midterms -- a shift just as radical as the change between Jimmy Carter and Reagan, and between Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.
History unfolds, and as Walter Cronkite used to intone, ‘You are there.’
-- Scott Martelle
Obama photo: Rick Loomis/Los Angeles Times
McCain photo: Mark Boster/Los Angeles Times
