Opinion: Barack Obama plays a new number for V Day -- May 20

This article was originally on a blog post platform and may be missing photos, graphics or links. See About archive blog posts.

While everyone keeps running through the math of the Democratic primary battle, Barack Obama’s campaign already has come up with its own bottom line: The contest effectively ends on May 20.

There are 217 pledged delegates up for grabs in the remaining six primaries, fewer than the number of as-yet-undeclared superdelegates. The Obama camp will bolster its efforts to court these votes this weekend, when it kicks off a 50-state voter registration drive.

Each of the remaining contests lines up neatly for one candidate or the other-- West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico for Clinton, and Oregon, South Dakota and Montana for Obama.

The Obama campaign is likely to start pressing for commitments from superdelegates -- if not right away, then after the May 20 primaries in Kentucky and Oregon. At that point, under any likely scenario, Obama will lock up a majority of the pledged delegates.

Hari Sevugan, an Obama campaign spokesman, said today: ‘We are currently 33 delegates away from clinching a majority of all pledged delegates. Looking at this conservatively, coming out of the primaries in West Virginia, Kentucky and Oregon, we expect to be able to go over the top by the night of May 20th.’’

CBS 2, WBBM, in Chicago picked up on this today, declaring that ‘Barack Obama plans to claim the Democratic presidential nomination on the evening of May 20.’’

Obama strategist David Axelrod told the station ...

that on May 20, when Oregon (with its mail-in voting system) declares ‘the polls’ closed, Obama will have 1,627 pledged delegates -- a majority of those who were up for election throughout the process.

‘To my knowledge, the party has never nominated anyone other than the winner of the most elected delegates,’’ Axelrod said.

‘The Obama campaign is planning a big victory rally on that date, in a scope well beyond the typical rally following past primary victories,’’ the station notes.

‘However, the (Hillary) Clinton camp claims the majority number would be 1,784 if the party decides to include delegates from the disputed states of Florida and Michigan.’’

And, of course, when superdelegates are added in, a candidate currently needs to reach the 2,025 mark at the party’s convention in Denver to claim the nomination (and perhaps more, depending on how the ongoing dispute over the rogue Michigan and Florida primaries is resolved).

-- Mike Dorning and Mark Silva

Mike Dorning and Mark Silva write for the Swamp of the Chicago Tribune’s Washington bureau.

Christi Parsons contributed to this report.