Opinion: The view from Camp Obama

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Barack Obama’s campaign bided it’s time (to some degree) before wading in with its glass-is-half-full take on Super Tuesday results, unlike Hillary Clinton’s team (see here and here).

A few minutes ago, though, we got an e-mail from Ben LaBolt, a top Obama aide, that focused on the degree to which his candidate closed the gap on Clinton in various states, regardless of the ultimate victor.

We can’t blame LaBolt for building his case around polls, despite how off the mark so many surveys have proved in this hard-to-predict nominating fight. And in some cases, the data he cites is ancient.

Still, here’s LaBolt’s memo (with the winner, or the leader, as of now, added by us):

ALABAMA (Obama wins)

Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Alabama By 15 Points. According to polling done by Rasmussen released on January 25, Clinton led Obama by 15 points, 43% to 28%. [Rasmussen, 1/25/08].

ARIZONA (Clinton wins)

Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Arizona Obama By 21 Points. According to a poll done for the Arizona Republic that was released on January 23, Clinton led Obama 45% to 24%. [Arizona Republic, 1/23/08].

CONNECTICUT (Obama wins)

Hartford Courant: Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Connecticut By 14 Points. According to polling done for the Hartford Courant released on January 20, Clinton led Obama by 14 points, 41% to 27%. [Hartford Courant, 1/20/08].

DELAWARE (Obama wins)

October 2007 Poll Found Clinton Leading Obama By 24 Points. According to polling done by Farleigh Dickinson that was released on October 10, Clinton led Obama by 24 points, 41% to 17%. [Fairleigh Dickinson, 10/10/07].

GEORGIA (Obama wins).

In December 2007, Clinton Led Georgia By 7 Points. According to polling done by Strategic Vision released on December 12, Clinton led Obama by 7 points, 34% to 27%. [Strategic Vision, 1/22/07].

MASSACHUSETTS (Clinton wins)

Survey USA: Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Massachusetts By 37 Points. According to polling done by Survey USA released on January 24, Clinton led Obama by 37 points, 59% to 22%. [Survey USA, 1/24/08].

MINNESOTA (Obama wins).

October Poll Found Clinton Leading Obama By 25 Points In Minnesota. According to polling done by Mason Dixon released on October 2, Clinton led Obama 47%-33%. [Star Tribune, 10/2/07].

MISSOURI (Clinton leads)

Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Missouri By 19 Points. According to polling done by Rasmussen released on January 25, Clinton led Obama by 19 points, 43% to 24%. [Rasmussen, 1/25/08].

NEW YORK (Clinton wins)

Before February 5th, Clinton Led New York By 28 Points. According to polling done by USA Today and Gallup released on January 28, Clinton led Obama by 28 points, 56% to 28%. [Gallup, 1/28/08].

NEW JERSEY (Clinton wins)

Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led New Jersey By 17 Points. According to polling done by Quinnipiac released on January 22, Clinton led Obama by 17 points, 49% to 32%. [Quinnipiac, 1/23/08].

OKLAHOMA (Clinton wins)

Three Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Oklahoma By 20 Points. According to polling done by Survey USA released on January 14, Clinton led Obama by 20 points, 45% to 25%. [Survey USA, 1/14/08].

TENNESSEE (Clinton wins)

Less Than One Week Before February 5th, Clinton Led Tennessee By 33 Points. According to polling done by Insider Advantage in Tennessee on January 30th, Clinton led Obama by 33 points, 59% to 26%. [Insider Advantage, 1/30/08].

-- Don Frederick