Opinion: Past Iowa results
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The Iowa caucuses first gained a modicum of national attention in 1972, when a surprisingly strong second-place finish by Democratic insurgent George McGovern helped chart his course to a presidential nomination. Four years later, Iowa’s profile spiked when Jimmy Carter built his early momentum there (though technically, he did not finish first in the night’s voting).
Since then, the caucuses have been irrelevant in contested races only once -- in 1992. One of Iowa’s own senators, Tom Harkin, sought the Democratic nomination that year, causing his rivals to cede the state to him and focus on New Hampshire. And among the Republicans, Pat Buchanan took a pass on the caucuses, choosing New Hampshire as the initial battleground in his ultimately unsuccessful bid to derail then-President George H.W. Bush.
Sometimes, winning in Iowa has proved only a momentary triumph for a candidate who eventually fell by the wayside. But the last time -- in both parties -- an Iowa winner in a competitive contest failed to capture the nomination prize was in 1988. Here are the results in those races:
DEMOCRATS
2004: John Kerry* (38%), John Edwards (32%), Howard Dean (18%), Richard Gephardt (11%) and Dennis Kucinich (1%)
2000: Al Gore* (63%), Bill Bradley (37%)
1988: Dick Gephardt (31%), Paul Simon (27%), Michael Dukakis* (22%) and Bruce Babbitt (6%)
1984: Walter Mondale* (49%), Gary Hart (17%), George McGovern (10%), Alan Cranston (7%), John Glenn (4%), Reubin Askew (3%) and Jesse Jackson (2%)
1980: Jimmy Carter* (59%), Ted Kennedy (31%)
1976: ‘Uncommitted’ (37%), Jimmy Carter* (28%), Birch Bayh (13%), Fred R. Harris (10%), Morris Udall (6%), Sargent Shriver (3%) and Henry Jackson (1%)
1972: Edmund Muskie (36%), George McGovern* (23%), Hubert Humphrey(2%), Eugene McCarthy (1%), Shirley Chisholm (1%) and Henry Jackson (1%)
*Went on to win nomination
REPUBLICANS
2000: George W. Bush* (41%), Steve Forbes (30%), Alan Keyes (14%), Gary Bauer (9%), John McCain (5%) and Orrin Hatch (1%)
1996: Bob Dole* (26%), Pat Buchanan (23%), Lamar Alexander (18%), Steve Forbes (10%), Phil Gramm (9%), Alan Keyes (7%), Richard Lugar (4%) and Maurice Taylor (1%)
1988: Bob Dole (37%), Pat Robertson (25%), George H.W. Bush* (19%), Jack Kemp (11%) and Pete Du Pont (7%)
1980: George H.W. Bush (32%), Ronald Reagan* (30%), Howard Baker (15%), John Connally (9%), Phil Crane (7%), John B. Anderson (4%) and Bob Dole (2%)
1976: Gerald Ford* defeats Ronald Reagan (numbers not available)
*Went on to win nomination
-- Don Frederick