Opinion: Joe Biden speaks boldly about possible Iowa outcomes
This article was originally on a blog post platform and may be missing photos, graphics or links. See About archive blog posts.
DES MOINES -- As our colleague Peter Nicholas reported the other day, Hillary Clinton has told supporters in California that she expects the campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination will be over Feb. 5, which means Clinton and the political analysts at least agree on that. And late Friday Barack Obama made a bold admission recorded by The Times’ Mark Z. Barabak: that whichever Democrat wins the Iowa caucus will win the nomination and the election.
But this week, Joe Biden went Clinton one better. In an interview with The Times after a brief speech before the Polk County Democratic Committee, he sketched out how he sees the voting season getting launched here with the Jan. 3 caucuses. And as he’s said before, only the top three finishers have much of a future.
Of course, Biden thinks there could be a surprise in the works and that his so-far low poll numbers could climb quickly. And given the disconnect between polls and the caucuses -- another ice storm on caucus night, for example, could upend the political landscape -- there’s a reason why the lower-tier candidates are hanging in there. In this case, uncertainty could breed opportunity. But a bad showing could mean early retirement. Said Biden:
‘How you come out of the gate here is going to tell a lot. I don’t expect this at all, but to make a point, if Hillary finishes fourth, she’s gone. If John Edwards finishes second, he’s gone. If I finish fifth, sixth, seventh, you know, it’s over. And if I’m a fourth and it’s not a close fourth, I’m gone. So this is the big test. And I don’t presume to know what’s likely to happen. All I can tell you is I’m a pretty good politician and my fingertips out there on the road tell me something’s moving. Is it going to move fast enough, big enough, quick enough? I don’t know.’
Again, that’s why they keep campaigning. As has been pointed out before, we’re entering the stage when the undecideds begin to decide. And in a race this close in Iowa, anything can happen. A perceived dirty trick can blow up. An old local favorite can rise again. Deep on-ground organizing can trump television ads.
To paraphrase an old sports axiom, that’s why they hold the elections. Expectations are one thing. The cold, hard reality of vote counts is something else entirely.
-- Scott Martelle