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Opinion: The question on Democrats’ minds

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And Barack Obama has been hearing it: Can he win the general election?

Beyond the give-and-take of the nomination fight, the thing Democrats want most from the 2008 election is to turn the White House from red to blue. And with such minor policy differences among the major Democratic candidates, the most significant aspect of any candidate could come down to whether the rank-and-file believe he or she can win in November.

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A recent Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 62% of Democrats think Hillary Clinton has the best chance of winning (scroll down to question 18c), up from 48% in a February poll -- a significant leap in faith. For Obama, only 15% thought he had the best chance, similar to February, a virtual tie with the 14% for John Edwards, who was down significantly from February.

Of course, those numbers could reflect the bandwagon effect. But then again, that’s a huge gulf between Clinton’s perceived viability and the rest of the Democratic pack. And in politics, perceptions often count more than reality.

On the Republican side, the poll reflected the unsettled state of that race, with 46% saying they thought Rudy Giuliani could win in the fall, compared with 18% for John McCain, 12% for Fred Thompson and 9% for Mitt Romney.

But there’s now a 100% chance someone will.

-- Scott Martelle

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