Opinion: Making the most out of a few poll points

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The new Washington Post/ABC News poll of likely Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa shows just the barest of changes in presidential preferences since a similar survey was taken way back in late July.

For the Barack Obama campaign, that was greeted as very good news.

Obama ran slightly ahead in the new poll, with 30%, followed by Hillary Clinton (26%), John Edwards (22%) and Bill Richardson (11%). In the summer survey, the breakdown was Obama 27%, Clinton 26%, Edwards 26% and Richardson 11%.

At first glance, what seems remarkable is how static the race appears. Even Obama’s bump may be illusionary -- the poll, conducted among 500 Iowans between Wednesday and Sunday, has an error margin of plus or minus 4.5 %.

Still, what thrilled the Obama camp -- and immediately captured the attention of others -- is that during a period when Clinton’s advantage in national polls soared, there was no comparable sign of progress in the state where the nomination battle begins ...

and where the results on caucus night could dramatically reshape the contest.

A quick e-mail from Obama aides highlighted other favorable findings in the poll for their candidate. The message noted that ‘Obama is running even with Clinton among women in Iowa, drawing 32% to her 31%, despite the fact that the Clinton campaign has built its effort around attracting female voters.’

Also: ‘Iowa Democrats are tilting toward change: 55% reported that a ‘new direction and new ideas’ are their top priority, compared with 33% who favored ‘strength and experience.’ That is a shift from July, when 49% sought change and 39% experience.’

(We would note that in a different context, Obama and his aides, while eagerly embracing the ‘change’ mantle, would be loath to concede that another candidate might better embody the ‘strength and experience’ description.)

The Obama team was particularly pleased, justifiably so, by the strength he showed as the second choice among the likely caucusgoers. Obama led in that category, with 34%, followed by Edwards (28%) and Clinton (15%). That could be key because if a candidate (say, for argument’s sake, a Joe Biden or a Chris Dodd) falls short of 15% backing at a caucus site, their supporters often change their allegiance to one of the front-runners.

You can see the complete poll here.

The hard workers at RealClearPolitics quickly took note of the new survey and found that, in an aggregate of several recent polls in Iowa, Clinton remains ahead of Obama, 27.% to 24.8%. You can find those computations here.

-- Don Frederick