Opinion: Dissecting the numbers

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Political analyst Stuart Rothenberg posted a good breakdown of recent New Hampshire polling numbers earlier this week that in some ways affirms a general sense of the tone of the campaigns so far: The Democrats are more engaged than the Republicans -- at least in New Hampshire.

Rothenberg delves into a St. Anselm College survey that found 46% of those polled who were following the campaign ‘a lot’ plan to vote in the Democratic primary, compared with 36% who said they plan to vote in the Republican primary. Among the undeclared voters, who can pick which primary to vote in, 41% said they will likely vote in the Democratic primary and 19% said they’re likely to vote in the Republican primary.

As Rothenberg notes, that signals ‘Democrats are already invested in the Democratic race, while Republicans are less engaged. It’s uncertain, of course, whether Republican voters will become more interested in the GOP primary as the actual vote approaches, or whether they are generally less interested in the 2008 election, which could mean depressed Republican turnout in November.’

We’ve been noting all along that there’s still a lot of time left before the first nominating votes, but if you look at the calendar, time is narrowing. People in some states will be getting absentee ballots in a couple of months -- lots of time for candidate surges and collapses, but not so much time for quantum shifts in the mood of the electorate.

Of course, the Republican disengagement now just affects who their candidate will be. If Hillary Clinton survives the Democratic gantlet of primaries and caucuses, her presence at the top of the national Democratic ticket could be just the thing to jump-start the conservative base among the Republicans.

-- Scott Martelle