Opinion: Rolling the dice on the Nevada caucus

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Count Chris Dodd among the Democratic presidential contenders disinvesting in the Nevada caucuses in favor of Iowa, where the media attention that would come with a strong showing in the Jan. 14 caucuses can help a low-funded, longshot campaign come alive.

John Edwards has already made a similar shift, moving bodies from the desert to the Iowa cornfields.

While Dodd and Edwards look to the Midwest, Bill Richardson, governor of New Mexico and the candidate with the best yet still tenuous claim of roots in the West, recently hired staff and opened a second office in Las Vegas, adding to offices in Reno and Elko.

Barack Obama also has two offices in Vegas, and one each in Reno and Elko. Hillary Clinton has offices in three cities, as well: Vegas, Reno and Pahrump. Dennis Kucinich opened his one-and-only headquarters in Las Vegas early yesterday (though that could just be because Vegas was on his way home from Hawaii).

There’s still a lot of work to be done by all of them. There have been no fresh Nevada polls, but a month ago Clinton had a comfortable 14-point lead over Obama and Edwards, whose combined 34% was just one tick above Clinton’s 33%.

And as in Iowa, succeeding in Nevada’s caucuses will all depend on the ground game -- which candidates can get the most people to the caucus sites on Jan. 19. Obviously, a win or strong showing in Iowa will help propel supporters in Nevada (and elsewhere), but it can’t all be done via free media. We’ll be keeping an eye on the Nevada ground game as the campaigns rev up, but Dodd and Edwards shifting resources out doesn’t bode well for their chances there.

--Scott Martelle