Opinion: Hurricane Fred blows ashore

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After a summer of procrastination, distraction, reorganization and delay, former senator and pretend prosecutor Fred Thompson enters the race for the Republican nomination today in as carefully-scripted manner as any network show.

His long-awaited entry, positioning himself as a true conservative, could fundamentally alter the GOP race or he could flame out like one of those jets landing on his carrier in ‘The Hunt for Red October.’ It won’t take long to find out. All eyes will be on him, especially the next 10 days, to see if he can get up to the same speed as his eight other Republican competitors who’ve been at it for months, refining their speeches, their movements, their messages before crowds and challenging reporters.

Not that any of them have dominated previous debates. And so eager are a substantial number of Republicans for an exciting conservative alternative that the avuncular Thompson has earned strong second-place showings in many polls by not campaigning.

To avoid immediate direct comparisons, Thompson and his newly-reassembled campaign team are wisely skipping the Republican debate tonight in New Hampshire, which angers the Manchester Union Leader and both of its readers.

Instead, his campaign will play off the program with its first 30-second television ad just before the debate on the Fox News Channel, steering viewers to his website where early Thursday he will officially launch his campaign with a 15-minute web speech that will be closely-watched for Thompson’s campaign themes. Talk about controlling the message. No pestering reporters or hecklers. The same approach as Hillary Clinton took last winter, which hasn’t hurt her chances.

And, wait one minute, does any of this sound like another actor’s successful entry into the California gubernatorial race back in the anti-Gray Davis days? It should. A bunch of Gov. Arnold’s folks are on the Thompson team now.

‘On the next president’s watch,’ Thompson says in the ad, ‘our country will make decisions that will affect our lives and our families far into the future. We can’t allow ourselves to become a weaker, less prosperous and more divided nation.’

‘Today, as before,’ Thompson adds, ‘the fate of millions across the world depends on the unity and resolve of the American people. I talk about this tomorrow on Fred08.com. I invite you to take a look and join us.’

But first comes an appearance on NBC’s ‘The Tonight Show with Jay Leno,’ which will...

likely draw a couple million more viewers than yet another debate on a cable news channel with the same familiar dark suits and red ties uttering the same themes and phrases. And Ron Paul as the familiar loose cannon.

For the next little while it’s likely be all-Fred all-the-time. He’ll hit Iowa first thing Thursday afternoon, which also will annoy the Union Leader. But there’s plenty of time to suck up to New Hampshire’s spoiled voters who are accustomed to far more attention than their numbers deserve every four years. Thompson will dominate the political news today and tomorrow and the political shows this weekend.

He will, as former governor Mike Huckabee has complained, suck up all the oxygen for a while. The upside to owning the stage a while is that everyone is looking. That’s also, however, the downside. He could be judged harshly, certainly by his opponents.

You’re unlikely to see the other GOP candidates announce any new initiatives during the Fredstorm. They’ll try to ride it out and grit their teeth as reporters ask them what they think of Thompson’s entry or statements or policies. Candidates hate few things more than losing the initiative and being asked about an opponent instead of their own message.

Yesterday Sen. John McCain said Fred was a friend and he welcomed him into the race and got in a little dig about new Hampshire voters expecting candidates to appear there and work hard as he did and creamed George W. Bush in 2000 and as he’s doing again this year and not doing so well. Rudy Giuliani called Thompson a fine senator. Mitt Romney, who until now has been leading the GOP field in Iowa and New Hampshire, said as long as Thompson had waited this long, why didn’t he keep waiting til Christmas or January? That’s Newt Gingrich’s assignment.

‘For every person watching that debate who thinks they’ve made up their mind,’ Todd Harris, Thompson’s newest communications director, told AP, ‘there are probably going to be 20 who haven’t decided.’

In the sped-up spirit of the presidential campaign for 2008, those decisions may come very quickly.

--Andrew Malcolm