Opinion: Democrats soon to pay their union dues
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Candidate forums are becoming ubiquitous in the Democratic presidential race, but the Aug. 7 get-together in Chicago announced today by the AFL-CIO carries an extra bit of heft. It could lead to a pre-primary endorsement by the massive labor organization.
MSNBC’s Keith Olbermann will host the 90-minute gathering, which will be broadcast live on his network and XM Satellite Radio, starting at 4 p.m. (PDT).
Fifty-five separate unions, claiming a total membership of 10 million, comprise the AFL-CIO, so a nod from the group would be significant. Not all union members follow their leaders but, based on an analysis of recent elections, most do, according to AFL-CIO spokesman Steve Smith.
The AFL-CIO took a pass on endorsing early in the 2004 contest, waiting to join the John F. Kerry bandwagon at a point when it was clear he was steaming toward the Democratic presidential nomination. Months before then, individual unions that were part of the umbrella group had charted their own courses.
Several backed Richard Gephardt, a longtime friend of labor, while Howard Dean’s insurgent candidacyappeared to get a huge boost when it was embraced by the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, as well as by the Service Employees International Union (which has since split from the AFL-CIO).
Neither of those endorsements hit pay dirt, of course, which is one reason the AFL-CIO is tempted to engage itself en masse earlyin the process this time around. But the organization, led by John Sweeney, has set up a complicated system for reaching a consensus. Ultimately, each union may again be on its own while the Democratic contest is still competitive.
The day after the Chicago forum ...
... the AFL-CIO Executive Council plans to meet to decide whether to have another meeting. This one, if it’s agreed to, would convene the group’s larger board in the fall to consider an endorsement.
But even if the AFL-CIO decides to grapple with making a pick, settling on a candidate is another matter. To gain the endorsement, one contender would have to snare support from unions that represent two-thirds of the organization’s total membership.
That will be no easy task. Hillary Rodham Clinton would seem the best betto pull it off, given her strong level of support within the party’s establishment. But with so many other prominent Democrats in the race -- and with virtually all of them promoting themselves as a tried-and-true friend of labor -- getting over that two-thirds mark will be challenge.
One postscript concerning the forum’s lineup: It’s no surprise that no Republicans will be there. AFL-CIO spokesman Smith said the GOP candidates were sent a questionnaire about their views on various labor issues as a prelude to an invitation, but none responded. Not much point, considering their chances of currying favor from union leaders.
Smith says Democrat Mike Gravel also will not be on the stage because he did not return the questionnaire. We doubt the major contenders will miss the harangues that the former Alaska senator likes to direct at them.
-- Don Frederick