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CES: Goodbye, 2008! Hello, 2009! Consumer electronics industry looks forward to growth amid recession

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LAS VEGAS -- So much for 2008. Though 2009 looks just as grim, companies at the Consumer Electronics Show are seeing a few rays of sunshine.

The Consumer Electronics Assn., the industry group that puts on CES, projects growth in organic LED displays, digital book readers, Blu-ray disc players and so-called netbooks, or lightweight laptops. Despite a 0.3% projected decline in overall consumer spending in 2009, people will continue to spend a large chunk of their income on technology.

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“Technology’s share of consumer spending compared to other durable goods has never been this high going back to the 1960s,” Shawn DuBravac, CEA’s chief economist, said this afternoon during a state-of-the-industry preview for the press at CES in Las Vegas. That share, DuBravac said, is expected to grow, thanks to four technology trends that are expected to unfold in 2009 -- the appeal of environmentally friendly electronics, wireless gadgets that can be used in more places, expanded access to the Internet and a growing number of ways people can interact with their devices, from voice to gesture.

“Consumer electronics has become a necessity, not a luxury,” said Steve Koenig, director of industry analysis.

Here are CEA’s 2009 forecasts for wholesale revenue growth for a few key segments:

  • Organic LED displays: +149%
  • Digital book readers: +110%
  • High-definition flash camcorders: +106%
  • Blu-ray disc players: +62%
  • LCD televisions with 120-or-higher-megahertz refresh rate: +57%
  • Netbooks: +80%

But as consumers delay, substitute or outright forgo purchases, some categories will take a hit. Consumers are likely to delay buying a new desktop computer, for example. Some may substitute a a less expensive netbook or laptop for a new PC. Other categories feeling the pain include aftermarket car audio and home audio systems, DuBravac said.

-- Alex Pham

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