Advertisement

World trade: Slow, but there are promising signs

Share

This article was originally on a blog post platform and may be missing photos, graphics or links. See About archive blog posts.

The world’s major economies -- including ours -- are in recovery mode, with strong growth in international trade predicted for 2010 and 2011, according to IHS Global Insight, an economic research and consulting firm.

‘World trade by all modes declined 6.0% in 2009. As the economy improves through the beginning and middle of 2010, total world trade will grow 8.5% and 7.8% in 2011,’ the Lexington, Mass.-based firm’s short-term forecast report said.

Advertisement

‘This is very positive news. I wouldn’t say that it’s as optimistic as we could be, but we can say that the recovery is definitely underway,’ said Paul Bingham, who follows international trade and transportation for IHS Global Insight.

Some of the positive signs the firm noted were the reduction in the number of global cargo container ships that have been idled for lack of work. That has dropped to about 9.1% of the world’s fleet, By some other estimates, nearly 12% of the shipping fleet was idle last year because the ships had no cargo to transport.

Among the fastest trade routes to recover will be the so-called Transpacific, which runs between Asia and the western coast of North America, the firm said. Imports from Asia declined by nearly 18% overall in 2009, but IHS Global Insight said trade to North America’s western coast would increase by nearly 10% this year.

That’s faster than the larger-volume Far East Asia-to-Europe route, where trade is expected to grow by a less robust 8%. IHS Global Insight said that it was taking European economies longer to emerge from the global recession.

But the forecast predicted that it would take a long time for some trade routes to return to levels reached during the global economic boom, just three years ago. IHS Global Insight said the Atlantic trade route that brings imports to North America from Europe would not return to 2007 levels until the year 2015.

-- Ronald D. White

Advertisement