Southern California leading economic indicator ticks up again

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Economic activity should continue to increase slightly in Southern California, according to new data released Thursday. The Southern California Leading Economic Indicator, as calculated by economists at Cal State Fullerton, increased by 0.14% in the fourth quarter of 2009.

‘It’s good news -- at least it’s staying positive,’ said Adrian Fleissig, a Cal State Fullerton professor who released the indicator. ‘But it’s not suggesting much of an increase.’

Fleissig takes into account national figures such as the real money supply, interest-rate spreads and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. He also considers regional factors such as non-farm employment, the unemployment rate, building permits and the Pacific region consumer confidence index. The S&P 500, interest-rate spread, consumer confidence index and building permits all had a positive effect on the indicator.

This is the third consecutive quarter in which the indicator has increased.

The upward tick doesn’t likely indicate trends for the rest of the country, though. A report out this morning from the BNY ConvergEx Group suggests that economic indicators in states such as Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and South Carolina track the most closely to the national situation.

-- Alana Semuels