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Job market not as grim as people think, economist says

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And now for a bit of good news on the employment front. Or at least some much-needed wishful thinking.

The employment picture isn’t nearly as dire as generally perceived, a prominent economist said in a research report today.

The report by Michael Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners in Greenwich, Conn., disputed the seemingly ubiquitous notion that unemployment will remain achingly high for an extended period.

Several factors, including a relatively speedy decline in jobless claims from their peak earlier this year, suggest that net job creation could resume in the first quarter of next year, Darda argued.

Continuing jobless claims have fallen faster from their peak in April than they have in any of the last six recessions, he said. First-time claims have dropped more quickly than in any of those periods except 1980-1982, he wrote.

‘It is still too early in our view to assert that this recovery will be a ‘jobless’ one,’ Darda wrote. ‘Importantly, leading indicators of labor market trends like jobless claims, temporary help, corporate earnings and the credit markets all suggest that we are getting closer to a labor market turn.’

Let’s hope he’s right.

--Walter Hamilton

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