Murder and the economy

This article was originally on a blog post platform and may be missing photos, graphics or links. See About archive blog posts.

A reader asks an interesting question about the possible interplay between unemployment and homicide in response to Wednesday’s note about declining homicide rates in L.A. County.

Below is a rough chart comparing the number of homicides in Los Angeles County, as reported by the coroner, and the countywide unemployment rate, as reported by the California State Economic Development Department.

Roughly, homicides were higher when the jobless picture was somewhat dimmer. Those who remember the early 1990s in L.A.--back when home prices dived and the aerospace job base collapsed--may also remember the epic homicide spike in those years. More recently, the region has seen tight labor markets and, up until recently, booming real estate. This has coincided with fewer homicides. *The 2007 numbers are estimated projections. For the values on this chart, hit ‘read on’ below.

(chart by Times assistant graphics editor Thomas Suh Lauder)

Homicides, L.A. County

1991 2,054 
1992 2,113 
1993 2,070 
1994 1,816 
1995 1,789 
1996 1,535 
1997 1,295 
1998 1,053 
1999 965 
2000 1,076 
2001 1,161 
2002 1,231 
2003 1,142 
2004 1,131 
2005 1,152 
2006 1,085 
2007 968*
*estimate based on annualized figures, Jan-Aug. ’07

Unemployment rate 
1991 8 
1992 9.9 
1993 10 
1994 9.3 
1995 8 
1996 8.3 
1997 6.9 
1998 6.6 
1999 5.9 
2000 5.4 
2001 5.7 
2002 6.8 
2003 7 
2004 6.5 
2005 5.3 
2006 4.7 
2007 4.8*
*estimate, avg through Aug.