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CBS’ Poltrack says DVR growth slowing and that broadband better for the industry

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CBS research guru David Poltrack, who spins TV ratings the way a campaign adviser spins the polls, said online video streaming is the beleaguered broadcast industry’s best hope for a significant second revenue stream.

Appearing at the Television Critics Assn. meeting at the Langham Hotel in Pasadena, the indefatigable Poltrack says he envisions getting substantial advertising revenue for content offered online as well as subscription fees from broadband distributors. Broadband, he is betting, will ultimately surpass the digital video recorder as the preferred method to view content after it has already aired on television.

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‘The DVR is an underachiever,’ Poltrack said. He noted that 32% of the population has a DVR, but said its growth rate is slowing.

Of course, the DVR allows viewers to zap through TV commercials, something that is more difficult online, so Poltrack does have a vested interest in broadband becoming a more significant outlet for TV content.

Poltrack says research shows that not only are people watching more long-form content online -- such as full-length TV show episodes on Hulu -- but that older consumers, particularly the 25 to 54 demographic, are embracing the medium.

Television content online tends to have fewer ads than when the same program runs on broadcast or cable. While viewers like that, networks, which are in the business of selling advertising to eyeballs, don’t. Poltrack said that an online program currently carries an average of two minutes of commercials. But if that could be increasedto 4.5 minutes, it would be a better financial bet for the networks since the typical DVR user skips about about half of the commercials recorded.

Poltrack was silent on the possibility that sooner or later the technology to fast forward through Internet content will one day be a new thorn in the side to the television networks. We won’t hold him accountable for that, however. TV ratings spinners, like campaign consultants with polling reports, like to use the data that most advances their argument.

-- Joe Flint

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