Movie projector: ‘Bruno’ has designs on strong $30 million-plus debut

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Weeks of calculated PR by Sacha Baron Cohen and a marketing campaign that has closely tied the film to ‘Borat’ looks like it will pay off for Universal, as ‘Bruno’ is on track to open to more than $30 million in ticket sales this weekend in the U.S. and Canada.

That should prove a big win for the studio, which bought rights to the distribute the picture domestically and in eight foreign countries from financier Media Rights Capital for $42.5 million.

According to people who have seen pre-release audience polling, ‘Bruno’ is tracking very strongly among young males and is generating interest from older males and younger women. Adult women, however, seem turned off by the movie based on Cohen’s flamboyantly gay character.

Comparing ‘Bruno’ to previous openings is difficult, because Cohen’s last film based on his TV series ‘Da Ali G Show,’ ‘Borat,’ opened at only 837 theaters in 2006, while ‘Bruno’ is debuting at 2,756. ‘Borat’ earned a stunning $26.5 million on its first weekend. Despite playing more than three times as many locations, ‘Bruno’ will likely earn only a little more.

But while it may not prove quite as much of a money-minting machine for Universal as ‘Borat,’ which ultimately grossed $128.5 million domestically, was for Fox, ‘Bruno’ could still be profitable. After recouping its acquisition fee along with its costs for distribution and marketing, the studio will provide a portion of the film’s revenue to MRC and keep the rest.

International markets will likely prove as or more lucrative for Universal than the U.S. and Canada. ‘Borat’ sold $133.1 million worth of tickets overseas.

The studio opened ‘Bruno’ on Wednesday in Australia, Belgium and New Zealand. The film grossed more than ‘Borat’ in all three countries for a total of $1.6 million. Universal premieres it in Germany and the Netherlands today and in the United Kingdom and South Africa on Friday.

Also today and Friday, Sony Pictures is opening the film in Portugal and Greece, while local distributors are launching it in several other foreign countries, including Finland, Hungary, and Norway. It rolls out to other international markets throughout the summer and fall.

The only other picture opening Friday is Fox’s low-budget comedy ‘I Love You, Beth Cooper,’ which is generating limited interest from teenage girls and will probably gross under $10 million.

More interesting will be how several films already in theaters hold up this weekend at the box office, most notably ‘Public Enemies.’ Universal needs the Michael Mann-directed drama, which cost a little over $100 million to produce, to see a relatively small decline this weekend after its $40.1 million five-day opening if it’s going to end up a success. Grosses Monday through Wednesday were a solid $9.8 million, indicating audience interest may be holding up, in which case the studio will be looking for a weekend drop of under 50%.

-- Ben Fritz