GAZA STRIP: Caught by surprise

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The storm clouds have been building over the Gaza Strip for more than a week.

Hamas on Dec. 19 declared its shaky six-month truce with Israel finished. In the familiar tit-for-tat rhythm, Palestinian militants in Gaza quickly resumed rocket launches toward southern Israeli towns and Israel retaliated with airstrikes.

On Christmas Eve, Hamas and other armed factions launched a show-of-force barrage of more than 60 homemade rockets and mortar shells. Israeli officials promised drastic action and many Gazans braced for the onslaught.

But for some reason, Saturday’s massive Israeli missile barrage seemed to have caught Hamas by surprise.

Case in point: What was the Gaza Strip’s police chief doing at an outdoor ceremony for police academy graduates that must have been an irresistible target for an Israeli jet pilot?

Police Commander Tawfiq Jabber died in the attack, as did Ismail Jabari, head of the Security and Protection force, a squad similar to the Secret Service and responsible for protecting government officials and international organizations.

Several Hamas officials refused to comment on whether they had been caught off guard. But some Israeli commentators maintained that Hamas had wrongly interpreted Israeli political winds. Israel Radio analyst Gal Berger speculated that Hamas believed Israel was bluffing and wouldn’t dare launch a major attack six weeks before its Feb. 10 national election.

Now the focus turns to the inevitable cycle of retaliation. Saturday’s attack hurt Hamas, but probably didn’t cripple the militant group’s ability to maintain control of Gaza, or to launch its own counter-strikes. The deaths of more than 200 people and two senior police commanders will have to be avenged.

To be continued, unfortunately…

— Ashraf Khalil in Jerusalem