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Oscar nominations poll: Which film will win the Oscar for best picture?

January 25, 2011 |  7:15 am

Kings speech social network 2

"The Social Network" may have won the vast majority of precursor awards for best picture, but "The King's Speech" just rallied spectacularly at the Oscars, where it reigns with the most nominations (12). Over the last several decades, the movie with the most bids has won best picture 75% of the time. Does that mean it will stop "The Social Network" juggernaut?

A big surprise among contenders was the strength of "True Grit," which scored 10 nominations. That's two more than "Social Network"! Everybody underestimated the wily western at the box office too, where it hit the mother lode ($138 million). Can it strike major Oscar gold next?

Recently, there was a lot of talk about a possible knockout punch by "The Fighter." Voters sure do love boxing flicks ("Million Dollar Baby," "Rocky"). Is it still in the ring? And, if so, that means there are a lot of heavyweight contenders for best picture. If they split their vote, maybe another strong rival with a passionate fan base can break through -- like "Black Swan"?

-- Tom O'Neil

Photos: "The King's Speech" (Weinstein), "The Social Network" (Columbia)