Top of the Ticket, the start of Year Two

On this, the first anniversary of our Top of the Ticket blog, we are reminded of the mercurial, unpredictable nature of U.S. politics -- part of what makes what we do so fascinating.

Our goal -- one of us on the East Coast and the other on the far more important or at least less humid West Coast -- was to write about Campaign '08 virtually around the clock.

Our second-ever posting, 12 months ago today, previewed an upcoming L.A. Times/Bloomberg Poll; later in the day, we detailed the results of the nationwide survey. The findings were in line with other polls of the time.

In the Republican presidential race, which then seemed the most likely to last deep into the primary season, Rudy Giuliani was perched in first place. His lead wasn't overwhelming, but it was strong enough that he appeared certain to remain a major contender.

His liberal record on social issues loomed as an obvious liability within his party, but his tough-on-terrorism message was attracting substantial support from moderates and GOP-leaning independents.

His major headache among rivals last June was an as-yet-undeclared candidate who was riding a wave as the great conservative hope -- Fred Thompson. He ran a strong second in the poll.

Lagging far behind were John McCain and Mitt Romney, each barely with double-digit support. In our preview posting, we were especially scornful of McCain, noting sarcastically (and foolishly, as it turned out) that in the poll, he found himself "in heated competition with the 'Don't Know' category."

Meriting no mention from us was Mike Huckabee, one of several back-of-the-pack candidates barely earning any support across the country.

The Democratic race, at that point, seemed so much more cut-and-dried.

Hillary Clinton was the clear front-runner; Barack Obama was just as clearly ...

Breaking News: Romney quits; McCain now likely GOP nominee

Facing the political reality of an almost certain nomination victory by Sen. John McCain -- and vowing to return to politics -- former Gov. Mitt Romney formally dropped out of the GOP race for president minutes ago.

Clearly, Romney had been pondering this decision for days, as reported in detail here Monday. Despite large boldfaced vows to continue the fight for months, aides say he reached a tentative conclusion with his wife Ann to quit last night, but decided to sleep on it before making it formal today.

In Washington, where he advanced his well-financed but at-the-time little-known run about 10 months ago before the same CPAC group of conservatives, the 60-year-old Romney said all the right words in a speech to....

Breaking News: Des Moines Register picks McCain, Clinton

A big, big night for John McCain, scoring two major unexpected newspaper endorsements in two varied regions.

The Des Moines Register, the most important newspaper in the first state to choose presidential nominating delegates, will endorse the senator from Arizona for the Republican nomination and Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nod in Sunday's editions.

“The times call for competence," the newspaper stated."Americans want their government to work again. The times call for readiness to lead. Americans want their country to do great things again. They’ll regain trust in their government when they see a president make that happen.”

McCain, who was tied for fifth in the Register’s November Iowa poll of likely caucus-goers, was described this way in the Register editorial:

“Time after time, McCain has stuck to his beliefs in the face of opposition from other elected leaders and the public. He has criticized crop and ethanol subsidies during two presidential campaigns in Iowa. He bucked his party and president by opposing the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts. A year ago, in the face of growing criticism, he staunchly supported President Bush’s decision to increase troop strength in Iraq.

“McCain would enter the White House with deep knowledge of national-security and foreign-policy issues. He knows war, something we believe would make him reluctant to start one. He’s also a fierce defender of civil liberties. As a survivor of torture, he has stood resolutely against it. He pledges to start rebuilding America’s image abroad.

“The force of John McCain’s moral authority could go a long way toward restoring Americans’ trust...

Not Breaking News: Note to Top of the Ticket Readers

Attention Top of the Ticket readers (especially Ron Paul supporters):

Due to the growing popularity of the Top of the Ticket blog and its welcome and somewhat overdue inclusion into the Internet area now routinely scanned by the Web's independent search engines, there has been in the last several hours a sudden appearance of many older items from this blog on the web.

These are not re-postings, as easy as that would make our work for today. And as perfectly as that would fit into the conspiratorial suspicions of some political partisans who've left comments today. This is quite simply the discovery today by the search engines of several hundred items written over the past five months since we opened this blog dialogue on June 11.

All of the comments have been posted, albeit on items that are many weeks old. They can be accessed through the subject category words in the right-hand column of this blog. (There's even a separate subject line for Ron Paul, who is allegedly ignored so much by the media.)

We heartily welcome all of our new readers and hope you will make this unusual and eclectic political blog a regular part of your browsing day, along with this vibrant, constantly changing LATimes.com website.

There are two or three of us regularly posting political items here -- one from the East Coast and one from the West. So we span a lot of country as well as several time zones through each long blogging day. You never know what you'll find here at all hours.

Bookmark this: www.LATimes.com/TopoftheTicket

And keep on reading and leaving those comments. This is intended as a place for fans of politics written by fans of politics.

--Andrew Malcolm and Don Frederick

Ron Paul gets his late-night moment with Jay Leno

Well, the tension is mounting today as the world waits to see what scripted joke Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul will drop tonight during his negotiated dialogue with Jay Leno.

Paul, whose political passion can come across as strident and pushy on the TV debates, is not known for his comebacks, one-liners, quips or even smiles, although he's got a big grin on his website.

As we've noted before here and here and here, NBC's "Tonight Show with Jay Leno" has become a required stop for candidates to show a more human side to potential American voters when the kids are tucked in and the adults are preparing for bed and have fewer distractions, though it's actually taped late afternoon California time.

Already this year Jay has hosted John Edwards twice (Jan. 10 and June 25 with Elizabeth), Tom Vilsack (Feb. 15), whose candidacy didn't last much longer than his program segment, Joe Biden (March 22), Mitt Romney (May 2), Bill Richardson (May 11), John McCain (June 28), Barack Obama (Oct. 17), Dennis Kucinich (Sept. 24) and Fred Thompson on June 12, when he announced he might announce, and Sept. 5, when he actually announced he would announce.

Paul, a former Libertarian Party candidate for president, has, as we've noted, a range of non-traditional ideas that have placed him on the flanks of the Republican Party debates. He's a strict Constitutionalist with outspoken views against the Iraq war and American interventionism. He's suggested that the U.S. caused the 9/11 attacks by its bombing of Iraq, which drew barbs from other Republicans, mainly national GOP front-runner Rudy Giuliani.

Paul did well in numerous minor straw polls and has attracted to his political niche a fervent band of thousands of followers who patrol the sidewalks and interstate bridges with "Ron Paul 08" signs and monitor the Internet for any mention of their underdog candidate and jump in to praise or defend him. The Times' Scott Martelle recently followed two Paulites seeking some GOP delegates in the Bay Area.

In their own chat rooms Paul supporters discuss writers they don't like and advise each other on...

Mike Huckabee's long-shot last shot

The Marines are looking for a few good men. But former Gov. Mike Huckabee would settle for one -- a new national campaign finance chair.

The genial Arkansan, a Baptist minister, got a rush of publicity when he finished a surprising second to Mitt Romney in the high-profile Ames, Iowa, straw poll in July, albeit a straw poll without John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. Huckabee was then invited to appear on a lot of national TV shows, where he made his conservative case and enjoyed a modest rise in some polls.

But it turns out his low-budget campaign -- Huckabee flies commercial and is often delayed like the rest of us -- was simply not organized to take advantage of the publicity bonanza, a potentially fatal flaw for what was always a long-shot bid, despite the esteemed columnist David Broder being impressed with him.

In the third quarter Huckabee reported raising barely $1 million, enough, he claims, to keep going. Never mind his party's finance leaders -- Romney with an additional $18.5 million and Giuliani with $11 million. Huckabee's total was barely 20% of what libertarian long shot Ron Paul raised through his fervent followers and niche-market on the Internet.

"I don't want some fast-talking, slick guy. I want somebody who believes in me," Huckabee says, before joking: "That's the hard part: finding somebody who believes in me."

Huckabee had some trouble recruiting staff because not everyone believed he had a chance. And he said his original finance chair had to quit for personal reasons. Huckabee blamed campaign finance laws that he says favor the wealthy and elected officials like senators who can transfer funds between campaign accounts.

And while much can still change between now and January, Huckabee's chances of the second spot on a GOP ticket might be better--a conservative Baptist southern former governor could be a felicitous balance for, say, an urban northeastern former governor or former mayor. Americans in recent history have overwhelmingly favored electing executives to the presidency, not legislators.

But Huckabee's hanging in there. He maintains he's assembled a group of 100 supporters who've each pledged to raise $100,000. And now he faces the hard part, finding a finance chair. "We've got to find somebody who is interested in moving to Little Rock and raising money," he says.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Breaking News: Ron Paul scoops in $5 million!

The fervent supporters of Ron Paul, who seem to swim the internet 24 hours a day, are always complaining about their candidate being ignored. Sometimes they even do it politely.

They'll get back to that tomorrow. But for today they'll have to shut up and revel in a singular achievement--and its growing notice in the media. They contributed more than $5 million to the Texas representative's insurgent campaign in the third quarter. $5,080,000 to be exact. A 114% increase over the second quarter, while some other prominent candidates had lower numbers.

"As these fundraising numbers show," said Kent Snyder, Paul campaign chairman, "more Americans each day are embracing Dr. Paul's message."

For weeks Paul supporters, who huddle on their own chatsites to organize Comment-writing campaigns on widespread websites, have been claiming that the 72-year-old ob-gyn was gaining strength. But all they could point to as evidence were minor straw polls. Now, they've got a not-insignificant pile of money, which serves as votes in the public mind until the actual balloting begins come January.

True, $5 million pales in comparison to the $27 million Hillary Clinton raised this past quarter or the $100 million she and Barack Obama are each expected to raise this year. But Paul's haul isn't far behind the far-more-established John Edwards' $7 million for the third quarter.

And get this: Ron Paul's $5 million is about five times what former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee raised last quarter, despite all his enhanced publicity springing from a second-place finish in the Ames straw poll.

Despite his good reviews--last weekend former president Bill Clinton, also from Hope, Ark. even called Huckabee the best GOP speaker--Huckabee's long-shot campaign like Edwards' may face increasing money difficulty these next three months as the elections near and financial supporters start inching--or flooding--toward the favorites' camps to protect themselves and their interests. For now, the Newsweek poll has the Arkansan statistically tied with Giuliani for third in Iowa.

Huckabee's name, however, continues to be mentioned as a nice Southern/Heartland conservative flavor to add as a vice presidential partner if the top of the GOP ticket is from the Northeast.

Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani's campaign are playing press release chicken with each other today, each holding back their third-quarter numbers for the best timing for them. They're the consistent poll and fundraising leaders with Paul in the low single digits. His supporters claim the polls are biased and under-report Paul people.

But for this afternoon the attention is focused on Paul. Oh, and by the way, his low-budget campaign reported having $5.3 million cash on hand, which may even enable it to buy a TV ad in Iowa and New Hampshire. If they purchase 9,999 more, they'll equal just Romney's TV buys so far.

--Andrew Malcolm

Ron Paul and his fans celebrate

Republican presidential contender Ron Paul turned 72 today, but his devoted supporters delivered an early present Saturday, showing up in sufficient numbers to dominate two little-noticed -- and sparsely attended -- straw polls.

At a gathering of the West Alabama Republican Assembly in Tuscaloosa, Paul's people apparently were the only ones who had kept their calendars clear.  He garnered a whopping 81% of the straw poll vote (out of 266 ballots cast).  His showing at a similar contest in New Hampshire's Stafford County was only slightly less impressive: Paul won 73% of the 288 votes.  No other candidate broke into double digits in either competition.

Let's give this to Paul's backers: they're willing to put in the time on behalf of their man.

Paul now turns his attention to his home state -- a straw poll of Texas Republicans is scheduled for Sept. 1 in Fort Worth.  This presents more of a challenge for the anti-establishment candidate; participation is limited to those who were delegates to past state or national GOP conventions, which isn't exactly Paul's constituency.  Still, he's hosting a "Texas Pride" party the night before the vote, with music provided by blues guitarist Jimmie Vaughan (brother of the late, legendary Stevie Ray Vaughan).

Score one for Paul on the entertainment front.

-- Don Frederick

 

Tommy Thompson drops out of GOP race

Former Gov. Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin, who said he would drop out of the Republican race for president if he didn't come in first or second in Saturday's Ames Straw Poll, finished sixth of 11 candidates. And minutes ago he made it official.

The 65-year-old former secretary of Health and Human Services said he was officially dropping out of the race. "I respect the decision of the voters," he said. Despite visiting all 99 Iowa counties, his campaign never got much traction, though he did push his colleagues to talk more about health care.

In a brief statement he said he would take some time off before returning to the private sector and his nonprofit work. Historically, the role of the Ames straw poll has been as an early spring weeding of the candidate garden, as discussed here yesterday.

Thompson's departure, which follows that of former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore last month, leaves the GOP pack at eight. It is unlikely to change the current field's dynamics that await the anticipated arrival of another Thompson (Fred) in early September. Tommy Thompson gave no indication of endorsing another Republican yet.

The Times' Michael Finnegan has the complete story on the day after the Ames straw poll here on the website and in Monday's print editions.

--Andrew Malcolm

Mitt Romney takes some heat

The top three finishers in the Iowa straw poll of Republican presidential contenders --- Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Sam Brownback --- reaped immediate benefits from their showings: free air time on the Sunday morning chat shows. But if Romney, who won Saturday's contest in Ames, thought he was simply going to bask in his victory during an appearance on "Fox News Sunday," host Chris Wallace disabused him of that notion.

At the start of the interview, Romney was allowed to detail why his win should be seen as a big deal (a contention that remains a bit of a hard sell). Those preliminaries out of the way, Romney got a pretty good grilling on several fronts, including the familiar issue of his reversal on abortion rights, the less familiar topic of his less-than-stellar economic record as Massachusetts' governor and what Wallace aptly termed "the big dog controversy."

Wallace replayed the already widely circulated clips of Romney, during his campaigns for office in Massachusetts, stressing his support for "safe and legal" abortion and his commitment to preserving and protecting "a woman's right to choose."

As he has many times before, and as he will have to many times in the future, Romney made the case that his switch on the issue --- he now strongly opposes abortion rights --- was not a matter of political expediency (i.e., the difference between running in a liberal state and wooing socially conservative Republicans nationwide).

Wallace also threw this at Romney: "Researchers at Northeastern University (in Boston) looked at the economic performance of Massachusetts during the Romney years (2003-07) and said it was one of the worst in the country."

The former governor's initial response: "Well, I've got very different statistics than you do and than they do."

We don't doubt that he does, but politicians generally don't benefit from getting down into the weeds with statisticians. We imagine Romney will be trying out more effective ways to parry such queries as his campaign progresses.

He clearly learned a lesson on one front. ...

Breaking News: Ames straw poll results!

The straws are in and counted and Mitt Romney accomplished what he set out to do--win the Ames Republican straw poll, the first real test of statewide organizational strength for GOP candidates heading for January's caucus in Iowa.

He captured nearly a third of the ballots--31.5% of the 14,302 votes cast, to be exact. Second was Mike Huckabee at 18.1%, meaning that two former governors topped the list; four of the last five presidents have been governors. Sen. Sam Brownback came in third at 15.3%. Tom Tancredo was fourth at 13%. Ron Paul took 9% of the vote, just ahead of Tommy Thompson at 7.3%.

The others with just handfuls of votes were in declining order Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, Duncan Hunter, John McCain and John Cox.

In 1999, with little preparation time George W. Bush won the straw poll with 31% of some 23,000 votes to beat Steve Forbes by 10 percentage points.

Opponents had tried to raise expectations for Romney to the 40% level, which he'd be unlikely to meet. The anticipated win set back the former governor a lot financially; each ballot cost $35 per person plus more than 100 chartered buses to ferry supporters from around the state. He's also invested in months of TV and radio advertising, personnel and logistics.

But the convincing victory, with nearly twice the votes of the second-place finisher, may well be worth the investment if in coming days it fuels more free media attention and a growing awareness of his candidacy elsewhere, and boosts his name recognition and ranking in national polls. Much the same could happen to the underfunded Huckabee for his surprising second place; the media love underdogs, especially on slow summer days. Tonight, Romney pronounced himself "pleased as punch."

Romney has trekked along in the 8-12% range of national polls, well behind Rudy Giuliani and even undeclared Fred Thompson, who with Sen. John McCain opted out of Ames when they saw Romney's lead developing. Romney is also ahead in statewide New Hampshire polls.

Straw poll wins do not guarantee success in the ensuing winter's Republican caucus, but historically no one has won that Iowa caucus without competing at Ames the previous summer.

As we noted this morning and several other times this past week here and here and here, this may mean the end of the '08 campaign road for some Republican candidates. Former Wisconsin governor Thompson, for instance, had vowed to quit if he didn't finish first or second. He finished sixth. And Brownback could be shaky, having been bumped into third place by fellow social conservative Huckabee.

The Times' Michael Finnegan has a complete story on the sweltering competition on this website now and in Sunday's print editions.

--Andrew Malcolm

Washington, go ahead please

Attention Top of the Ticket readers:

Don Frederick, the handsome East Coast member of this blogging partnership (the one who won't -- or can't -- grow a mustache), will appear on C-SPAN live Sunday morning to discuss the ongoing presidential campaigns in general and today's Ames straw poll results in particular.

The veteran political editor will be on from 7:45 A.M. until 8:30 A.M. Eastern time, which may require use of your TiVo in the Pacific time zone. Unless you want to see him live really badly.

--Andrew Malcolm

In Ames, who gets the short straw?

As the most recent Republican presidential debate was wrapping up last Sunday, we couldn't help but feel a bit melancholy.  Not because we wanted to spend our weekend hearing more; no, it wasn't that. Rather, as we took one last glimpse at the gaggle of candidates, we wondered: Who won't be there at the next GOP forum?

If tradition holds, today's straw poll of Iowa Republicans in Ames will serve one main purpose: It will delitter the field.  Not by a lot, to be sure.  We know Mitt Romney will still be around, crowing about the straw poll that he won through dint of hard work and, more to the point, a willingness to spend an obscene amount of money.

Rudy Giuliani and John McCain aren't going anywhere, because they blew off the Ames beauty contest. And Fred Thompson, of course, has to get in the race before he can exit it.

Then there are the crusader candidates: Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter. They'll still be hanging around.  Each hopes to do well at Ames, but none will lose much sleep if that doesn't happen because each also sees himself as promoting causes that can't be laid to rest at this stage of the process.

That leaves three on the bubble: Mike Huckabee, Tommy Thompson and Sam Brownback.  Each has indicated that a poor showing today could end the road they want to take to the White House

Contemplating their possible departures, we realized that, in different ways, we'd miss them.  You think we jest?  Not at all.

Romney leads GOP into the Iowa straw poll

Well, it's the last 24 hours of campaigning in Iowa for GOP competitors in the Ames straw poll, and Mitt Romney dropped a pork chop.

But that's about the only bad thing happening to him entering the most important confrontation to date in the Republican struggle to win the Iowa caucuses.

Because of the costs (dozens of buses plus $35 per ballot) and Romney's early organization, determination and spending, Rudy Giuliani (in Colorado today) and John McCain (New Hampshire) opted not to compete at Ames tomorrow. Its importance is as a midsummer burst of media coverage, a state party fundraiser and a sign of having the statewide organizational capability to turn out thousands of supporters on a cold January night. Romney alone will be bringing more than 100 charter busloads of supporters.

While winning at Ames, as George W. Bush did in 1999 despite a late start, does not guarantee victory in the caucuses, no Republican who has skipped Ames has ever won the caucuses.

Romney is expected to win easily, but today aides sought to tamp down expectations lest their win not look large enough. "For people to think we're going to get 30, 40 or 50% is just ridiculous," Carl Forti, a senior Romney political aide, told The Times' Michael Finnegan.

Romney spent much of the day in nearby Des Moines at the state fair, where Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo and Ron Paul also campaigned. Walking among thousands of Iowans ...

Collecting religious straws

Quietly beneath the bright lights of the big-city media, the second tier of Republican candidates is scrapping hard across Iowa to gain position for the upcoming Ames straw poll on Aug. 11. Not that they'll win it necessarily; Mitt Romney seems to be in excellent position to capture that symbolic prize since Rudy Giuliani and John McCain have opted out to save money and maybe face.

But they need to score high enough to appear viable politically and money-wise to continue on to January's Iowa caucuses.

Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback is taking an unusual twist in his straw poll preparations. Twelve hours a day, he's got 45 interns in his Iowa campaign office calling McCain supporters and suggesting, since he's not competing in Ames, they might want to show their support for his values by backing Brownback in the straw poll. It's worth a try, right?

But the easiest way to gain media attention is through arguments. Conflict, like car wrecks on the freeways, draws attention, even if it's puffed up at times. The latest flap in this struggle involves Brownback and former Gov. Mike Huckabee. Brownback is a Methodist who flip-flopped to Catholicism. Huckabee is an evangelical Protestant; in fact, he's an ordained minister.

Brownback seeks an apology from Huckabee for an e-mail that a Huckabee supporter recently sent. The e-mail, written by the Rev. Tim Rude, pastor of the Walnut Creek Community Church, to other supporters called Huckabee "one of us" and said: "I know Sen. Brownback converted to Roman Catholicism in 2002. Frankly, as a recovering Catholic myself, that is all I need to know about his discernment when compared to the governor's."

Rude later acknowledged he was careless with his words, thought a Catholic could make a great president and even suggested he'd support Brownback if Huckabee drops out. A Huckabee...

A Brownback fan seeks special help

Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback has his work cut out for him in Iowa. Despite Midwestern roots and solid conservative credentials, he is hovering around 1% in the most recent state poll, right up there with fellow Republicans Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter and Ron Paul. Mitt Romney leads with 25%, 11 points ahead of undeclared Fred Thompson and 12 points ahead of Rudy Giuliani.

If he doesn't do well -- that is, finish in the top two or three -- in the Ames party straw poll Aug. 11, Brownback may be forced out of the field by the political and financial realities of the race.

So Lonnie Berger is rolling out the big guns in what he calls "spiritual warfare." He's appointed himself prayer coordinator of praying friends of Sam Brownback and he's mobilizing the thoughts and prayers for his man.

Working from his website, Berger warns believers, "When Christians vote, our values move forward in the culture war when Christians stay home, the enemy wins." Berger also sends out regular e-mail reminders with specific things for Brownback supporters to pray for:

"that God would supernaturally activate the Christians in Iowa to pray and go to the straw poll to vote for Sam."

"for God to break the spiritual strongholds over Iowa that would keep Sam from being brought more into the national spotlight."

"that God would use this poll to weed out those candidates that would push our country away from the Lord."

"that God would bring Sam to the top and that his campaign would get huge national coverage in the media."

Whether a single blog item and a mention in USA Today constitutes huge national coverage, Berger is not deterred. The Brownback campaign says it has no connection to the prayer group, which is not seeking to raise funds. A website disclaimer says, "These prayers are sent out as a personal courtesy for Senator Brownback and his family and have no association with any ministry or tax exempt organization."

On the other hand, what harm could come from such efforts? The campaign has not gained much traction the regular political way.

--Andrew Malcolm

Romney lobs a grenade at Edwards

Yes, yes, elections are all about divisions, splitting the primary or general election electorate into little pieces like a jigsaw puzzle and then meticulously reassembling us through promises, platforms and personalities into a new coalition that theoretically adds up to more votes than the opponent.

In the primaries, candidates of each like-minded party are usually trying to split hairs to concoct distinctions among themselves. O.K., that doesn't include Ron Paul and Mike Gravel. But occasionally it's useful for a candidate to lob a grenade over at another party's candidate just to help emphasize his own stance using the media.

Such was the case this week with Democrat John Edwards, who is successfully trying to stake out a populist position among the major candidates so far to the left that he is unflankable way out there. That gives him more to live down during the drive to the center if he makes it to the general election.

But first come the primaries. Recently, he did his poverty tour, as described by The Times' Richard Fausset. All the major Democratic candidates agree on letting the Bush tax cuts expire during the next presidential term, meaning taxes will increase. But now Edwards....

Does Fred Thompson know timing?

It looks like Fred Thompson is doing so well in the polls by not running yet that he's decided to not run for a while longer.

His campaign announcement, first rumored for July 1st, then July 4th and then mid-July, now won't come until August, according to both Fox News and CNN. If that's true, mid-August would make the most sense. That timing would enable Thompson, still organizing a campaign, to duck the expensive Aug. 11 Republican straw poll in Ames while almost immediately overshadowing the anticipated victory and momentum of Mitt Romney.

It would also save one month's campaigning expenses and postpone the increased scrutiny by both media and opponents' researchers. With expectations already so high among conservatives for a Thompson candidacy, he wouldn't want to stumble out of the gate.

Such a move would fly in the face of tradition, however. In politics, August is widely believed to be a time when virtually no one outside the campaigns is listening to anything but the sounds of vacation. And no Republican who has skipped the Ames straw poll has ever gone on to win the Iowa caucus the following winter.

--Andrew Malcolm

The other Thompson's challenge

Fred Thompson surges in the polls of Republican candidates without even declaring his candidacy yet. Tommy Thompson can't get anywhere in the same polls by working Iowa possibly harder than any other candidate.

The former governor from next-door Wisconsin, who calls himself "a reliable conservative," has set out to visit all 99 of Iowa's counties before the straw poll in Ames about a month from now. Which, if you've ever tried to drive across Iowa even one way, is an awful lot of driving and visiting. While other candidates come in and hit the Des Moines and Dubuque TV markets the same day by plane, Thompson's grassroots tour in a Winnebago (Iowa-made, by the way) stopped in Grinnell, Marengo, Mount Vernon, Shellsburg, Gladbrook and Marshalltown yesterday.

Today he's in Allison, Hampton, Mason City, New Hampton, Waterloo and Grundy Center. Tomorrow it's Independence, Dubuque, Maquoketa, Clinton, Davenport and Oelwein. The guy just won't give up. He speaks to... 

Grasping at straws

Rudy Giuliani, who rocked the world of Iowa Republican politics last week by pulling out of the traditional Ames straw poll in August, has now decided to participate in an ABC-TV debate there on Aug. 5. Just as John McCain followed the former mayor's lead and also pulled out of the straw poll, McCain and the other prominent GOP candidates are now likely to join the ABC debate.

Giuliani has less of a ground operation than his competitors in the Hawkeye state and McCain's struggling campaign is now downplaying fundraising expectations for the second quarter. A televised debate reaches many more people for free than a dusty county fair straw poll.

Political straw polls are expensive to bus in and buy tickets for your supporters to pack the ballot boxes. And straw polls are absolutely meaningless--unless you win one.

Still, they provide priceless publicity (especially for no-name candidates) and are a concrete measure of a candidate's on-the-ground organizational abilities. Which is why George W. Bush, with short preparation time and against the advice of some advisors, assigned Ken Mehlman to go after an Ames straw poll victory in 1999 and won it.

Giuliani and McCain said they left this summer's straw poll to save money for other activities. And straw polls are silly.

The real reason: They saw Mitt Romney coming. He's been up with ads in Iowa for months, built a solid team there, has the money to bus in sufficient supporters and leads the polls. Other than that McCain and Giuliani had a real chance of grasping at straws.

Winning the Ames straw poll certainly doesn't guarantee victory in the Iowa caucuses the following January. Pat Robertson knows that. But overlooked in most of the news coverage of the McCain/Giuliani decisions was another historical fact. No Republican has ever won the Iowa caucuses without first competing in Ames.

Let's check back on this come January.

--Andrew Malcolm

Tommy's troubles

For a few minutes Wednesday, Tommy Thompson achieved something that has been sorely lacking during his Republican presidential campaign: the attention of the political media. A fair number of reporters joined in a conference call his campaign set up for what it billed as a "major announcement."

The big news? He will go ahead and compete in the August straw poll in Ames, Iowa --- just as planned.

Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, as was widely reported, each dropped out of the nonbinding contest last week, deciding it would be a waste of resources. But last time we checked, the question of what Thompson (Tommy, not Fred) would do was not a pressing concern.

The former Wisconsin governor was savvy enough to acknowledge that, "I know most of you have tuned in to see if I was dropping out of the race." Then he insisted the Ames contest offered "a tremendous opportunity for our campaign to show" organizational strength.

Thompson's campaign, in fact, desperately needs to demonstrate that it has a pulse. At the moment, he's struggling to restore even a whiff of credibility to a candidacy that began as a longshot and now seems to fall short even of that label.

Why wait til next year? Vote now.

Have you ever been called by one of those political surveyors about the current candidates and how you might vote?

Me neither.

But The Times webfolks have constructed a special, shall we say, preliminary primary contest where you can cast a ballot for your favorite candidate. Even better, you can vote twice, once in each party.

Go to the middle of this page and have your say.

--Andrew Malcolm