Iowa determined to go first in GOP presidential nomination race

  

Herman Cain upset the Republican presidential apple cart with an impressive win Saturday in the Florida straw poll. Now it looks like the Sunshine State could once again disrupt the march toward picking an opponent for President Obama.

According to published reports, Florida's presidential primary could move to Jan. 31, more than a month ahead of schedule. A panel named by Gov. Rick Scott and GOP legislative leaders is expected to complete the move Friday, and that could put the state in hot water with the Republican National Committee.

(UPDATE: And the panel indeed did move the primary to Jan. 31)

According to RNC rules designed to prevent a chaotic rush during primary season, only Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina can hold elections before March 6.

But Florida, which will play host to the 2012 Republican National Convention, in Tampa, wants to have a more central role in picking the nominee. To achieve that, it would run afoul of the RNC, which will dock it about half of its 116 convention delegates.

Speaking to the Miami Herald, Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos (R-Merritt Island) said: "That's the price we have to pay. I feel bad for those folks who might not be able to be delegates. But ... we'd love to give the entire Republican Party membership in Florida the ability to have an influence on who the nominee would be."

Florida also pulled a similar move in 2008, moving its primary to Jan. 29, and helping to lock up the nomination for Sen. John McCain. Though all the Florida delegates made it to the convention floor in Minneapolis-St. Paul -- with about half being characterized as "honored guests" -- the RNC seems in no mood to make a deal this time.

Also speaking to the Herald, RNC spokeswoman Kirsten Kukowski said: "Any state that violates the rules will lose half their delegates. This is not a negotiation. These are the rules."

The current schedule has the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 6, followed by the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 14, the Nevada caucuses on Feb. 18, and the South Carolina primary on Feb. 28.

Determined not to be knocked off its perch as the first-in-the-nation caucuses, Iowa will do what it takes to keep its place of honor.

In a statement, Iowa Republican Party Chairman Matt Strawn said: "The four sanctioned, early states have been very clear that we will move together, if necessary, to ensure order as outlined in RNC rules. If we are forced to change our dates together, we will."

In a Sept. 29 interview on Fox News' "On the Record with Greta Van Susteren," GOP candidate Sen. Rick Santorum (obviously not a disinterested observer), said: "For the life of me, I don't understand what Florida's trying to accomplish, because whatever they're going to accomplish, they're going to fail. ... All you've effectively done is cut off one month of the lead-up time to this primary process."

He also defended the role of the smaller states, saying: "They've had a pretty good track record of taking the responsibility very seriously. ... These states are smaller states. It's manageable for them to meet the candidates, to kick the tires, to find out who these people really are."

Theoretically, Iowa could go as early as the first week of the year.

Democrats avoid all this hullabaloo by having their incumbent run unopposed (at least so far). But if former Clinton advisor Dick Morris is to be believed, the Democratic race could become as complicated as the GOP's.

In a Sept. 21 article on his website, DickMorris.com, the former Democrat strategist writes: "As bad news piles up for the Democrats, I asked a top Democratic strategist if it were possible that President Obama might 'pull a Lyndon Johnson' and soberly face the cameras, telling America that he has decided that the demands of partisan politics are interfering with his efforts to right our economy and that he has decided to withdraw to devote full time to our recovery.

"His answer: 'Yes. It’s possible. If things continue as they are and have not turned around by January, it is certainly possible.' "

Though Morris is leaning toward prediction territory, he's not the first person to publicly suggest the same thing.

On Sept. 18, Steve Chapman, a columnist for the Chicago Tribune (a sister paper of the Los Angeles Times, under the Tribune Co. umbrella), wrote a piece called "Why Obama Should Withdraw."

He wrote: "In the event he wins, Obama could find himself with Republicans in control of both houses of Congress. Then he will long for the good old days of 2011. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker John Boehner will bound out of bed each day eager to make his life miserable.

"Besides avoiding this indignity, Obama might do his party a big favor. In hard times, voters have a powerful urge to punish incumbents. He could slake this thirst by stepping aside and taking the blame. Then someone less reviled could replace him at the top of the ticket."

And who did he think that someone should be? The answer can be found in the picture at the top of this post, a shot from the New Hampshire primaries of 2008.

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-- Kate O'Hare

Photo: Hillary Rodham Clinton and daughter Chelsea visit Democratic supporters in Nashua, N.H., on primary day, Jan. 8, 2008. Credit: Joe Raedle / Getty Images

Gary Johnson added to Fox News/Google GOP debate

 

Gary Johnson has just been added to the roster for the Fox News/Google GOP presidential debate, set for Thursday, Sept. 22, in Orlando, Fla.

The event also features the eight usual participants from the last GOP debate on CNN on Sept. 12 --  Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman Jr., Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.

Plus now add the former New Mexico governor, who hasn't been in a debate since the first one, a Fox News debate in South Carolina on May 5.

Johnson is included over the objections of the cosponsoring Florida Republican Party, because he fit the criterion set by Fox News. That is to have at least 1% of the vote in the most recent editions of the five national polls that included him: Fox News, CNN, McClatchy-Marist, ABC and Quinnipiac.

Still no Thaddeus McCotter, as we noted here.

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Late-night jokes: Secret Service responds to Facebook threats with its own

-- Kate O'Hare

Media critic Kate O’Hare is a regular Ticket contributor. She also blogs about TV at Hot Cuppa TV and is a frequent contributor at entertainment news site Zap2it. Also follow O'Hare on Twitter @KateOH.

Speaking of 2012, follow The Ticket via Twitter alerts of each new Ticket item. Or click this: @latimestot. Our Facebook Like page is over here. We're also available on Kindle. Use the retweet buttons above to share any item with family and friends.

Photo: Gary Johnson addressing "tea party" supporters in May in South Carolina. Credit: Richard Shiro / Associated Press

Late-night jokes: Secret Service responds to Facebook threats with its own

As The Ticket's 73,000-plus Twitter followers and 7,200 Facebook friends/fans know, we regularly share our daily picks of the late-night jokes of interest, usually before broadcast each evening. Feel free to pass this weekly collection on to friends using the "Share" buttons above.

Conan: Big announcement today: Facebook says it's appointed a new director of privacy. His name is Dave Jenkins. He lives at 17 Oakwood Lane and his PIN number is 3153.

Leno: Someone left threatening messages on the White House Facebook page. The Secret Service takes this very seriously and warns if caught, you will be Unfriended.

Fallon: A new study finds that a mother's diet affects her baby's allergies. Which can only mean one thing: My mom ate cats.

Conan: A Michigan man wearing a President Obama mask robbed a bank. Either that or President Obama has an exciting new plan to reduce the deficit.

Letterman: Did you hear in Brooklyn a guy found a three-foot rat! Ever hear of Gambian pouch rats? The pouch, that's where they keep their guns.

Leno: A new study says women are being more honest about their weight. Warning for Guys: That doesn't mean YOU can be more honest about their weight. It's a one-way street.

Fallon: A South Carolina company is selling a device that tracks how many bites of food you have daily. I think we already have one. It's called your butt.

Fallon: In the last 30 years, the average homesize has increased 600 square feet. That's fitting since in the last 30 years the average person's size has increased 600 square feet.

Conan: A South Carolina man sneaked a TaserGun into an NFL game and tased somebody. The man was arrested and immediately signed by the Oakland Raiders.

Leno: Hmmm. You know that Philadelphia mint officer accused of stealing $2.4 million in coins? Well, he just paid his $50,000 bond all in nickels.

Leno: So this local porn studio is building a big underground bomb shelter for 1,500 people. Can you imagine that many poolboys, pizza guys and naughty nurses in one place?

Fallon: Researchers find that  your first decision is usually the right one. Then they were like, ‘Actually, wait, no. The second decision – THATS the right one.'

Leno: Good news for Obama. His approval overseas is very high, higher than at home. But then he's created more jobs overseas than at home.

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-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photos: Marcio Jose Sanchez / Associated Press (an Oakland Raider fan); Ricardo DeAratanha / Los Angeles Times.

Rick Perry's debut gives MSNBC top GOP debate ratings so far

   

You could call it the Rick Perry bump.

Fox News trumpeted its ratings after the Aug. 11 Republican presidential debate in Ames, Iowa, and now MSNBC is snapping its suspenders about its numbers for Wednesday's GOP debate from beneath the wings of Air Force One inside the Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley.

Wednesday was the much-anticipated debate debut for Texas Gov. Perry, who announced his candidacy Aug. 13 and is already the field's front-runner. The debate aired on MSNBC, CNBC and Telemundo, and streamed live on Politico.com.

It drew 5.4 million viewers for MSNBC, with 1.7 million viewers in the key Adults 25-54 demographic. It's the highest-rated of the four Republican debates aired so far in 2011, with two previous ones on FNC and one on CNN.

MSNBC's predictable main post-debate "analysis," which spanned the cable channel's ideological spectrum from Ed Schultz to Al Sharpton, lost half the viewers, down to 2.7 million total, with 817,000 in the target demographics.

Also on hand were Rachel Maddow, Lawrence O’Donnell and, for humor, Chris Matthews, who got no tingle from Perry.

But while MSNBC fielded its "A" team on analysis, no MSNBC personalities participated in the debate itself.

Moderators were Brian Williams of "NBC Nightly News" and John Harris, Politico's editor-in-chief, with a cameo question period by Telemundo's Jose Diaz-Balart for the immigration interrogations.

By contrast, June's CNN New Hampshire debate featured anchor John King, and both Fox News debates -- May in South Carolina and August in Iowa -- featured FNC anchors Bret Baier and Chris Wallace.

The next GOP debate is Monday at 5 p.m. Pacific in Tampa, Fla., co-sponsored by CNN and the Tea Party Express. It will be carried live on CNN, CNN International, CNN.com and CNN Radio. Also available via live-stream in the CNN Apps for iPhone, iPad and Android.

While MSNBC got the Wednesday numbers, NBC was actually Politico's co-sponsor.

Since it's summer, it's a bit surprising that NBC didn't air its own debate -- except that Wednesday is the night of the "America's Got Talent" results show, which easily trumps choosing a presidential nominee.

The "AGT" show drew 7.9 million viewers, giving NBC the win for the evening in total viewers, and tying it with second-place CBS for the advertiser-coveted 18-49 demo.

When it comes to competitions, Americans are still more interested in who will wind up with the $1 million and headline a Las Vegas show than who might move into the White House in January 2013.

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Presidential debate: The most entertaining, unexpected, weirdest and awkward moments

-- Kate O'Hare

Media critic Kate O’Hare is a regular Ticket contributor. She also blogs about TV at Hot Cuppa TV and is a frequent contributor at entertainment news site Zap2it. Also follow O'Hare on Twitter @KateOH.

Speaking of 2012, follow The Ticket via Twitter alerts of each new Ticket item. Or click this: @latimestot. Our Facebook Like page is over here. We're also available on Kindle. Use the retweet buttons above to share any item with family and friends.

Photos: Rick Perry on a monitor at the Republican presidential debate at the Reagan Library; dance group Silhouettes on "America's Got Talent." Credits: Kevork Djansezian / Getty Images (Perry); Trae Patton / NBC (Silhouettes).

Sunday shows: Cheney, Huntsman, DeMint, Trumka

ABC's "This Week" with Christiane Amanpour: Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) with Dana Loesch, Jon Karl, Clarence Page, Michael Gerson, Carol Lee, Jared Bernstein and Douglas Holtz-Eakin

Bloomberg's "Political Capital with Al Hunt:" AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka

CBS' "Face the Nation" with Bob Schieffer: Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, a Republican, and Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.)

CNN Fareed Zakaria "GPS": Frank Gehry, Heather Knight, Zanab Salbi, Sheryl WuDunn and husband Nicholas Kristof, and Platon

CNN's "State of the Union" with Candy Crowley: DeMint, James Hoffa of the Teamsters, Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I-Conn.), Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), Michael Duffy and Peter Baker

Fox News Channel "Fox News Sunday" with Chris Wallace: Dick Cheney with Ed Gillespie, Bill Kristol, Kirsten Powers and Mara Liasson

NBC's "Meet the Press" with David Gregory: Doris Kearns Goodwin, Paul Gigot, Mark McKinnon and Tom Friedman

-- Andrew Malcolm

Why wait until Sunday for politics? Click here now to follow The Ticket via Twitter alerts of each new Ticket item. Or follow us @latimestot. Our Facebook Like page is over here. We're also available on Kindle now. Use the ReTweet buttons above to share this item with friends.

Rick Perry broadens national lead over Romney, Bachmann, Palin

Fourteen days after announcing his Republican presidential candidacy, Texas Gov. Rick Perry has expanded his lead in a new national poll, while both Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin slide slightly and Michele Bachmann is in single digits.

A new CNN/ORC International Poll of Republicans out today shows Perry now holds the support of more than one-in-four (27%), up significantly from the 15% he had before his Aug. 13 announcement at the Redstate Gathering of conservative writers in South Carolina.

Romney, who had 17% then, now has 14%. Sarah Palin, who's expected to make her candidacy plans or lack thereof known at an Iowa tea party rally Saturday, has slipped from 12% to  10%.

Bachmann, the Iowa native and early tea party favorite, has the support of 9%, down from 12% in mid-July. The congresswoman's win at the Ames Straw Poll seems to have provided a short-lived bump.

In a poll that removes Palin and non-candidate Rudy Giuliani from the race, Perry's support jumps to 32% and Romney's to 18%.

The latest poll numbers reveal the tectonic shifts caused by Perry's energetic entry as the nation's longest-serving governor. Perry's support is strongest among tea party supporters but crosses a broad swath of the GOP and appears to be drawing support away from Bachmann and even perennial candidate Ron Paul.

The numbers also highlight the potential dangers of Romney's strategy so far of focusing heavily on New Hampshire and attacking President Obama while largely ceding Iowa and South Carolina to other GOP hopefuls.

His strategy is based on the belief that, in the end, Republican primary voters will eschew the excitement of the moment and choose someone, anyone, they believe can defeat the Democratic incumbent on Nov. 6, 2012.

The new CNN/ORC Pollalso shows that despite his dedicated disciples' determination, Paul's national standing has faded by half from early August, from 12% down to 6%.

A recent Gallup Poll of Republicans found a similar commanding lead for the Texan with a broad base of support among GOP incomes, gender and educations. And a new Rasmussen Reports survey found 38% of likely U.S. voters agree with Perry's professed goal of making Washington as inconsequential as possible in Americans' lives.

Even further changes in allegiance are likely in coming days as Labor Day and the fall campaign season arrive.

In addition to  Palin's long-teased decision Saturday, this weekend features a tea party candidate forum in South Carolina run by Sen. Jim DeMint where for the first time Perry will mix it up with GOP competitors like Bachmann and persistent critic and fellow Texan Paul. Romney is taking a pass on that event.

Then comes a flurry of debates including one at the Reagan Presidential Library on Sept. 7 and another in Tampa, Fla.

The same CNN/ORC poll found that fewer that three out of four Democrats favor Obama's renomination. The 72% who do is statistically about the same as the 70% who said that in early August but down from the 81% who liked that idea in early June. Likewise, those favoring a different Democrat as presidential nominee has surged from 18% in June to 27%.

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Rick Perry: 'We cannot afford 4 more years of this rudderless leadership'

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photos: Rick Perry shows his intense campaign style. Perry's campaign logo.

Credits: Jim Young / Reuters; Andrew Malcolm/Los Angeles Times

How a hurricane becomes a political opportunity

For the vast majority of Americans who could give a seagull's tail feather about Tropical Storm/Hurricane Irene, good luck trying to find something else interesting on television over the weekend.

The storm story had everything America's East Coast-centric media loves, especially on a slow-news August weekend: Unpredictability, the possibility of death and destruction and an East Coast location.

Which makes it by definition important.

Like it or not, Americans living thousands of miles away were going to see network reporters leaning into driving winds and rains like people who didn't know enough to come in out of the rain. CNN International even went full time with the U.S. East Coast storm although it had a ready-made Asian typhoon blasting through the Philippines and Taiwan too.

The storm had a little New York mayor ordering a big evacuation, a big New Jersey governor halting  gambling in Atlantic City -- gasp! -- and a White House chief executive who acted as if there's a presidential election next year. All bipartisan instincts.

On one hand, the ubiquitous responses of Eastern governments provided a stark contrast to the pathetic incompetence of the Louisiana governor and New Orleans mayor during Katrina's devastation and aftermath a few years back.

As bad as it was in pockets, this storm didn't meet a week of hype; can you say carmageddon?

But it did offer elected and appointed officials a golden opportunity to show how really ready they were to respond to an emergency.

That's not such a bad thing, actually, when the federal government has been in such steady ill repute the last couple of years for its inability to handle most anything, except over-spending to little effect.

Prime weapon in these political PR offensives are so-called briefings, which can actually get quite long. They provide a must-cover photo op showing an elected official on top of an emergency situation, learning, ordering. And then he/she can in turn authoritatively brief the news media and voters on where things stand. Someone is in charge.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was everywhere in recent days, checking preparations, consoling evacuees, briefing the state. Once he tore himself away from Martha's Vineyard, President Obama, who missed the earthquake during another golf game, showed he's learned his lesson from being a week late to recognize the import of the Gulf oil spill last year.

Their government agencies released copious notes on preparations, conference calls and the developing situation. And Obama hailed governments' response in a brief Rose Garden appearance Sunday.

None of this prevented millions from losing power, millions of dollars in damages and about 20 somehow related deaths.

And, yes, such a show of government presence is self-serving for elected officials, who show up, shake hands and talk at the cameras, having done none of the dirty work all night.

But for more than two years now many Americans have grown cynical, fearful and angry watching their federal government incapable of producing even a basic budget while suing state governments acting to do what the feds haven't. And state governments suing the feds for doing things they and some federal courts regard as unconstitutional.

So, yes, there may have been more revving of engines than actual operations. But, all in all, not a bad national civics lesson for the country to see its governments actually prepared and able to act in concert to perform their most basic duties, protect the citizenry in the face of some threat, natural or otherwise.

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Golfing Obama oblivious to East Coast earthquake but gets briefed later

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photos: Eduardo Munoz / Reuters (New York City is still standing); Julio Cortez / Associated Press (New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno talk with storm evacuees); Paul J. Richards / AFP / Getty Images (Obama gets a briefing at FEMA headquarters, Aug. 27); Kathy Kmonicek / Associated Press (N.Y. Gov. Andrew Cuomo makes the rounds of a Long Island fire station, Aug 28).

Sunday shows: Ron Paul, Fugate, Warner, Powell

ABC's "This Week" with Jake Tapper: N.J. Gov. Chris Christie and FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate, with George Will, Donna Brazile, Ron Brownstein, Cokie Roberts, Robert Kagan, Robin Wright and Rajiv Chadrasakaren.

Bloomberg's "Political Capital" with Al Hunt: Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.).

CBS' "Face the Nation" with Bob Schieffer: Colin Powell on Martin Luther King Jr..

CNN's "State of the Union" with Candy Crowley: Hurricane Irene coverage.

Fox News Channel's "Fox News Sunday" with Chris Wallace: Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) and Fugate, with Bill Kristol, Dana Perino, Mara Liasson and Juan Williams.

NBC's "Meet the Press" with David Gregory: Fugate with Jamie Gangel on Dick Cheney's new book, "In My Times," Katy Kay and Michael Dyson.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Why wait until Sunday for politics? Click here now to follow The Ticket via Twitter alerts of each new Ticket item. Or follow us @latimestot. Our Facebook Like page is over here. We're also available on Kindle now. Use the ReTweet buttons above to share this item with friends.

Photo:Joshua Roberts / Bloomberg (Ron Paul).

Rick Perry: Use Predators to track illegal drug traffic on U.S. border

Two themes have already emerged in the still-early 2012 presidential contest:

Republicans are running against Washington and President Obama is running against part of Washington, the Congress that gave him his early legislative achievements.

The newest entrant to the GOP race is Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who touched on one of the most emotional and volatile issues sitting on the nation's debate table: border security, illegal drugs from Mexico and illegal immigrants.

In his announcement speech in South Carolina on Saturday, Perry said:

America’s standing in the world is in peril, not only because of disastrous economic policies, but from the incoherent muddle that they call foreign policy. Our president has insulted our friends and he’s encouraged our enemies, thumbing his nose at traditional allies like Israel.

He seeks to dictate new borders for the Middle East and the oldest democracy there, Israel, while he is an abject failure in his constitutional duty to protect our borders in the United States.

And the nation's longest-serving governor waved his right hand toward Mexico as he said it before a national TV audience and an enthusiastic crowd of conservative online writers at the RedState Gathering.

Now comes word that the border-state governor thinks as long as the U.S. is using unmanned aircraft so effectively in Afghanistan and Pakistan, why not use the same Air Force surveillance assets to protect the homeland?

The feds, former Air Force pilot Perry told a campaign gathering in New Hampshire, should use unarmed Predator drones to monitor the flow of illegal drugs coming from Mexico. Predators can fly for up to 20 hours undetected and are equipped with sophisticated video and tracking technology.

We know that there are Predator drones being flown for practice every day because we're seeing them; we're preparing these young people to fly missions in these war zones that we have. But some of those, they have all the equipment, they're obviously unarmed, they've got the downward-looking radar, they've got the ability to do night work and through clouds.

Why not be flying those missions and using (that) real-time information to help our law enforcement?

Such double use of military assets is not unprecedented, using training flight hours for real-time law enforcement work.

National Guard helicopter pilots, who need to log regular flight hours each month to maintain proficiency, were for a time tasked to do that over national parks. There, they'd scout for illegal drug operations using pockets of those vast public acreages as free farm land for marijuana growing. Some were well-guarded and even mined against poachers and authorities.

The Customs and Border Protection arm of the Department of Homeland Security says on its website it has been using unmanned aerial craft for several years, although the agency is vague on the crafts' specific missions other than "support of disaster relief efforts."

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Rick Perry is all in: 'We cannot afford 4 more years of this rudderless leadership'

-- Andrew Malcolm

For unpredictable commentary on politics, follow The Ticket via Twitter alerts of each new Ticket item. Or click this: @latimestot. Our Facebook Like page is over here. We're also available on Kindle. Use the ReTweet buttons above to share any item with family and friends.

Photo: Don Bartletti / Los Angeles Times (A California National Guard chase plane monitors a Predator  flight over populous Southern California.)

C-SPAN and The Ticket discuss the latest politics

For a summer weekend in a non-national election year, it was a busy time.

Michele Bachmann won the Ames Straw Poll, but not by much over the loyal legions of Ron Paul. Tim Pawlenty finished a distant third and dropped out. (Scroll down for related links.)

And Texas Gov. Rick Perry jumped into the Republican race, stealing some of the media thunder from Ames by announcing his candidacy at the RedState Gathering, an annual meeting of conservative online writers, in South Carolina, the first Southern primary state.

We joined C-SPAN's Steve Scully Sunday morning on 'Washington Journal' to talk about the unfolding events. Watch the video below.

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Rick Perry is all in: 'We cannot afford 4 more years of this rudderless leadership"

For refreshing commentary on politics, follow The Ticket via Twitter alerts of each new Ticket item. Or click this: @latimestot. Our Facebook Like page is over here. We're also available on Kindle.Use the ReTweet buttons above to share any item with family and friends.

Video courtesy of C-SPAN, 'Washington Journal.'