Top of the Ticket, the start of Year Two

On this, the first anniversary of our Top of the Ticket blog, we are reminded of the mercurial, unpredictable nature of U.S. politics -- part of what makes what we do so fascinating.

Our goal -- one of us on the East Coast and the other on the far more important or at least less humid West Coast -- was to write about Campaign '08 virtually around the clock.

Our second-ever posting, 12 months ago today, previewed an upcoming L.A. Times/Bloomberg Poll; later in the day, we detailed the results of the nationwide survey. The findings were in line with other polls of the time.

In the Republican presidential race, which then seemed the most likely to last deep into the primary season, Rudy Giuliani was perched in first place. His lead wasn't overwhelming, but it was strong enough that he appeared certain to remain a major contender.

His liberal record on social issues loomed as an obvious liability within his party, but his tough-on-terrorism message was attracting substantial support from moderates and GOP-leaning independents.

His major headache among rivals last June was an as-yet-undeclared candidate who was riding a wave as the great conservative hope -- Fred Thompson. He ran a strong second in the poll.

Lagging far behind were John McCain and Mitt Romney, each barely with double-digit support. In our preview posting, we were especially scornful of McCain, noting sarcastically (and foolishly, as it turned out) that in the poll, he found himself "in heated competition with the 'Don't Know' category."

Meriting no mention from us was Mike Huckabee, one of several back-of-the-pack candidates barely earning any support across the country.

The Democratic race, at that point, seemed so much more cut-and-dried.

Hillary Clinton was the clear front-runner; Barack Obama was just as clearly ...

Why Oprah quit Jeremiah Wright's church and Barack Obama didn't

Early in the 1980s rising television star Oprah Winfrey was looking for a local church in Chicago. Not surprisingly, she like many blacks including four years later a community organizer named Barack Obama, was attracted to Trinity United Church of Christ and its dynamic, outspoken pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

That South Side church was THE place for upwardly mobile Windy City blacks to connect and it had an aggressive community outreach program. And attendance continued Winfrey's childhood connection with black churches and their shared sense of community and support.

As The Ticket noted Sunday morning, the same reasons caused other black clergy to steer the young Obama there, saying he'd have more luck connecting with black churches in his urban organizing efforts if he actually belonged to one himself. Obama's friends later added that alighting at Trinity with its forceful male leader was also part of the mixed-race Obama's exploration of his black identity in the absence of his father.

Things went along fine for several years, as Oprah's fame and fortune exploded and as Obama laid the groundwork in local efforts and political connections for his political career.

But something began bothering Winfrey. By the....

Ticket Special Report: How and why Barack Obama allied himself with the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr.

The day Barack Obama first appeared in the church office of the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., more than 20 years ago, the pastor warned him that getting involved with Chicago's Trinity United Church of Christ might not be "a feather in your cap."

Obama was a community organizer then trying to build support for his group on the South Side of Chicago, and a friendly minister at another church had suggested that he'd have more luck with black clergy support if he actually joined a congregation himself.

"Some of my fellow clergy don't appreciate what we're about," Wright told him that day, as Obama would later recount it. "They feel like we're too radical. Others [think] we ain't radical enough."

Obama ended up joining, a story he tells in his memoirs, and later was influenced enough by Wright to derive the title of a subsequent book, "The Audacity of Hope," from one of the pastor's sermons.

Some have speculated that Wright became a father figure for Obama, whose father had left the family and returned to Africa. As The Ticket noted the other day, others believe Obama was attracted by Wright's cerebral nature, as opposed to other less-educated black ministers on Chicago's South Side.

But despite the warning, the association did not seem to be a terribly risky one for Obama, given the arc of the career he was beginning to craft even then.

He was carefully constructing his resume as a street-savvy community organizer while also applying for admission to law school. Within the walls of Trinity, he found a connection to the African American community he'd lacked as a child raised by his white mother and grandparents, an important cultural marker for a biracial candidate who later would try to appeal to black and white voters alike.

He'd share church membership with some of Chicago's influential thinkers and leaders, among them lawmakers, judges and Oprah Winfrey. And in Wright he would find ...

Rev. Jeremiah Wright says he was hurt by reaction to his sermons

In a rare interview, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. says media organizations that circulated controversial sound bites of his sermons wanted to paint him as "un-American" or "some sort of fanatic" to bring down Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.

"I think they wanted to communicate that I am unpatriotic, that I am un-American, that I am filled with hate speech, that I have a cult at Trinity United Church of Christ," Wright tells PBS host Bill Moyers, a member of the same denomination as Wright, the United Church of Christ.

It's Wright's first interview since his comments critical of U.S. policies surfaced on television and the Internet, raising questions about Obama's 20-year association with someone who suggests that the U.S. invited the 9/11 attacks and that the federal government inaugurated the AIDS epidemic to eradicate African Americans.

" 'And by the way, guess who goes to his church, hint, hint, hint?' " Wright adds. "That's what they wanted to communicate. They know nothing about the church."

Wright, who for four decades built his reputation on straight talk and imperviousness to politicians, has been atypically quiet in recent weeks -- canceling four appearances, declining all interview requests and bowing out of a news conference with other clergy. So controversial were his ...

Barack Obama removes his U.S. flag lapel pin once more

Well, it's gone again.

Barack Obama's little American flag lapel pin, which a disabled veteran gave him Tuesday and the Democratic presidential candidate announced he would demonstrably don for the crowd of applauding Pennsylvania voters and assembled cameras, went missing for the big debate last night with Hillary Clinton in Philadelphia.

The nationally televised debate was the final encounter between the two Democrats before Tuesday's potentially decisive primary balloting in the Keystone State.

Last fall, as we recalled here Wednesday morning, Obama removed the flag lapel pin that he, like many in public and private life, had worn since after 9/11. The gesture called public attention to Obama's early and continued opposition to the continuing Iraq War.

After a national controversy erupted over the symbolic removal, Obama....

Barack Obama finds himself haunted by the '60s

Will the taint of the late 1960s and early '70s -- at least as it affects mainstream politics -- ever fade?

Barack Obama, who was grade-school age during the peak of the counter culture, could be excused for muttering that question to himself after Wednesday night's debate in Philadelphia on ABC-TV.

Throughout much of its first half, the faceoff with Hillary Clinton must have seemed like a root canal for him -- and no more so than when his links (however tenuous) to an extremist from the days when radicalism was often the norm on college campuses was explored.

As we noted in a running blog on the debate, questioners Charles Gibson and George Stephanopoulos were in a no-win situation. After a period when it seemed there was a debate every other day, almost two months had passed since the last one.

Gibson and Stephanopoulos could have ignored the various furors that have flared -- and been thoroughly covered -- over that time. But they would have been widely scorned had they done so.

So they raised the expected topics (and, as a result, have been widely scorned anyway): Rev. Jeremiah Wright's rants; the non-existent sniping in Bosnia; "bittergate."

The unexpected came when Stephanopoulos, under what he termed "the general theme of patriotism," asked Obama about "a gentleman named William Ayers (pictured above and, as a young man, below). He was part of the Weather Underground in the 1970s. They bombed the Pentagon, the Capitol, and other buildings. He's never apologized for that."

Ayers and his even more notorious wife, Bernadine Dohrn, were on the lam ...

Giuliani campaign's got serious financial cracks

Evidence is mounting that the campaign of former mayor Rudy Giuliani, once the national frontrunner for the Republican nomination, is in serious financial trouble that could adversely affect its ability to continue competing.

News emerged today that the campaign had "asked" its top staff members to work without pay, at least for January and possibly beyond. The idea is to conserve dwindling financial resources to invest in the now crucial Florida campaign. But that is always a bad sign in politics.

Giuliani had based his nomination strategy on basically forfeiting early states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, where his liberal social views might not have done well anyway...

The terrain shifts on Giuliani

The changing mix of issues in the presidential campaign -- and the difficulty that poses for Rudy Giuliani -- was on vivid display during Thursday night's debate among the Republican White House contenders.

A significant shift has occurred in the topics that dominate the political discussion in both parties. As The Times' Peter Wallsten wrote almost a month ago, the spotlight has moved "from the battlefields of the Middle East and toward kitchen-table issues, such as the economy."

So it was that the first question posed by the Fox News team moderating Thursday's get-together concerned the likelihood of a recession and what should be done about the growing signs of economic problems. And so it was that the first question concerning foreign affairs came about 40 minutes into the 90-minute forum.

Giuliani's presidential bid is premised on party stalwarts setting aside his liberal record on social issues and rallying to him because of his commitment to tackle the terrorism threat head-on and with vigor. The more that subject is not front and center, the more there is a sense of drift to his efforts.

-- Don Frederick

Giuliani, back on the trail, explains his medical problem

Having felt completely miserable and been briefly hospitalized in the Midwest the other day, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani returned to the campaign trail today and tried New Hampshire this time for a change.

An energetic Giuliani hit the home of Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta late this afternoon to make his regular pitch to supporters and some undecideds. Afterwards, he told The Times' Maeve Reston, “It was a severe headache, yeah, and everything has turned out fine. All the tests turned out 100%. As you can see, I’m very healthy.” 

Though his campaign, to ease the load a little, canceled a town hall meeting scheduled for Friday in Merrimack and removed an Exeter house party from his public schedule for Sunday, Giuliani insisted his campaign was back in full swing.  “Now we’re right on schedule,” he said.

News bulletins flashed late the other evening when Giuliani, en route home to New York after a full day of campaigning across Missouri, ordered his plane turned around and returned to St. Louis. There, on the telephoned advice of his New York doctor, Giuliani spent the night in Barnes-Jewish Hospital, which specializes in cardiac care. The ex-mayor's staff cited "flu-like symptoms," a catch-all public relations phrase that sounds minor and forthcoming while really saying nothing that can be contradicted later. They said the symptoms had been worsening all day. 

In a taped interview to air Sunday morning on ABC-TV's “This Week with George Stephanopoulos," Giuliani says it was actually a severe headache -- the most painful he's ever had -- that worsened all day and especially after takeoff. Within 10 minutes of departure, he said, he ordered the plane turned around.

Giuliani, a prostate cancer survivor, said he was tested for "everything" and "every test came back normal." His doctor saw him Thursday in New York and pronounced him in good health, but Giuliani said the doctor would be making a full statement after Christmas, when more test results will be back, to assure all of his continuing fine health.

"I'm back on the trail, hale and hearty, ready to go, feeling great," said Giuliani, "and, you know, actually reassured by the fact that I had so many different tests and they all came back 100%."

So after all that, what kind of prescriptions did the doctors give him? Said Giuliani: "Take one aspirin a day."

--Andrew Malcolm

Only 4 letters but a big name for McCain

Tom Kean, the chairman of the 9/11 Commission and former governor of New Jersey, endorses Sen. John McCain for the GOP presidential nomination.

The two Republicans held a news conference at Boston's Logan Airport, the departure point for two airliners that crashed into the World Trade Center's twin towers. "This is the first time in 20 years I've endorsed anyone on the national level," Kean said. "Usually I stay out of these things. This is an endorsement, frankly, of conscience."

"This is a man who has all the qualities, when put together, to lead our country," Kean added.

The Kean endorsement plays to McCain's campaign theme on national security and can help balance the constant drumbeat of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani on his 9/11 leadership including a new ad today that cites his crisis management skills. Not coincidentally, such a strategy by the Arizonan also could help him circumvent lingering animosity among conservative Republicans over McCain's stand on immigration and campaign finance reforms.

"In the history of our nation," Kean said today, "a mere handful of senators have exerted a greater influence over free men and free women than even some presidents of the United States. John McCain has been one of those senators, and he has tremendous respect throughout the world." Kean also credited McCain with strong support for the 9/11 panel's 41 safety recommendations, as well as a post-attack overhaul of the nation's intelligence services.

McCain clearly reveled in the endorsement and noted that Kean had joined his team of national security experts that include Henry Kissinger, George Schultz, Alexander Haig, James Woolsey, Lawrence Eagleburger and James Schlesinger.

According to the Real Clear Politics average of public polls, McCain stands in third place in New Hampshire and nationally, fourth in South Carolina, Michigan and Florida and fifth in Iowa. A McCain advisor told Politico.com that the campaign intended to keep a nominal presence in Iowa but was counting on New Hampshire as a last chance for victory and momentum.

Tom Kean Jr., a New Jersey state senator and son of the former governor, has endorsed Giuliani.

The next big news would be if Lee Hamilton, the vice chairman of the 9/11 Commission, endorses McCain. He's a former congressman from Indiana -- and a Democrat.

--Andrew Malcolm

Rovian ruminations: Karl Rove scans the presidential races

You might think that after being the architect of so many political campaigns, including two successful  presidential election runs by George W. Bush, few things would surprise Karl Rove, recently retired as a top White House advisor.

But yesterday, in an unusual and long, ruminative interview with C-SPAN's Distance Learning Class and Steve Scully, with dozens of college students hooked up at universities around the country, Rove admitted he was surprised by several things in the current campaign. The program will also be archived here.

One was the ability of Rudy Giuliani to stay atop the Republican field for as long as he has and to draw the support of Republicans such as Pat Robertson "that I would not have expected him to draw."  He attributed this to Giuliani building his campaign around the war on terrorism and his successful experience as a leader running New York City -- reducing crime, welfare and the general coarseness of urban life there.

"He's got a record," Rove said, "and part of that record involves speaking his mind bluntly and plainly and acting on his convictions."

Rove said he was also impressed with Mitt Romney.  "He's done a very good job and has run a textbook campaign in building strength in Iowa and New Hampshire.  He's very well organized ... and the strength he has in the early states is authentic."

Rove said he was surprised "at how weak (Barack) Obama and (John) Edwards have turned out to be. Both of them are going to give her some scares.  She's (Hillary Clinton) going to lose something along the way, maybe starting with Iowa.  But the surprise to me is how they haven't been able to take advantage of the openings they've been given and exploit them."

One missed opportunity, Rove said, was Clinton's evasive answer on opening the archives ...

Giuliani, weeks and points behind, starts N.H. TV ads

Fourteen-thousand-five-hundred ads and $10.2 million behind Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani goes up with his first television ads of the GOP presidential campaign in New Hampshire today.

With his heroic 9/11 exposure, of course, the former New York mayor has benefited enormously nationally in name recognition over the former Massachusetts governor, who's built poll leads in Iowa and New Hampshire anyway and a developing conservative personality in South Carolina. Giuliani, who has been buying radio ads and direct mail already, is counting on riding out an initial Romney surge in early states and coming on strong in later states like Florida.

The new 60-second ad, which will air for about six days at a cost of more than $300,000, shows Giuliani looking straight into the camera. "I've been tested in a way in which the American people can look to me," Giuliani says.

"They're not going to find perfection, but they're going to find somebody who has dealt with crisis almost on a regular basis and has had results. And in many cases, exceptional results. Results people thought weren't possible."

A new CBS/New York Times poll yesterday shows Giuliani trailing Romney in New Hampshire 16-34.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Ex-POW McCain denounces torture as U.S. policy

Judge Michael Mukasey seems to be well along the path to Senate confirmation as attorney general despite his refusal to declare waterboarding a form of torture.

But, campaigning in Iowa today, former POW John McCain says he intends to continue talking about the procedure, which involves placing a prisoner on his back, head down on an inverted board, covering his face with a wet towel and pouring water on him. It is said to produce the intense sensation of drowning.

At an Iowa Falls event, The Times' Aaron Zitner heard the Arizona senator criticize Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani for saying, in McCain's words, that waterboarding could be used under certain circumstances. "Now, my friends," McCain said in his familiar speech pattern, "waterboarding is torture . . . No mistake about that."

He also said, "We have to have the moral high ground," and said use of waterboarding hurts the United States' reputation worldwide. The procedure is said to have been used a handful of times on hardened Al Qaeda prisoners.

Later in a short news conference, McCain vowed to continue discussing the issue, which has the not coincidental side effect of underlining the candidate's military and war experience and six years of sacrifice as a prisoner. McCain and California Rep. Duncan Hunter are the only GOP candidates with wartime military experience.

Asked by one reporter about Giuliani mocking sleep deprivation as a harsh interrogation technique and comparing it to running for president, McCain referenced a fellow Vietnam POW who was chained to a stool for 10 days and then unchained for one day and then chained again for 10 more days, according to the senator.

"Ask him," McCain demanded, "if that has any relation to running for president."

-- Andrew Malcolm

News shocker! Rudy and Hillary agree on one thing

This just in. Despite weeks of sniping at each other across barbed wire party lines, national presidential front-runners Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton agree on one thing: Barack Obama is a naive young fellow when it comes to foreign policy. (The other agreement is that a New Yorker should become president.)

The former New York mayor is on "Political Capital with Al Hunt" this weekend and was chuckling over Obama's idea of using economic incentives and possible membership in the World Trade Organization as incentives to get Iran to negotiate over abandoning its nuclear weapons program.

"This may be one of the few areas in which I agree with Hillary Clinton," Giuliani said, "that Barack Obama in this area shows a great deal of – a great deal of inexperience and very, very naïve.  This is like, you know, begging your enemy to negotiate with you.  You don’t beg your enemy to negotiate with you; you change the leverage."

Obama, his supporters no doubt recall, was also criticized when he said that as president he'd meet with despots without preconditions and when he suggested unilaterally bombing our ally Pakistan if it didn't cooperate in routing al Qaeda from isolated frontier areas.

Giuliani added, "They totally misunderstand what Ronald Reagan did.  Ronald Reagan didn’t beg the Soviets to negotiate with us; Ronald Reagan changed the leverage; he changed the power position.  Barack Obama doesn’t have the slightest idea how to do that. I mean, it’s sad actually. He’s, like, fallen all over himself begging to negotiate with Ahmadinejad."

In case you didn't get what Giuliani was not exactly hinting at, he added, "And what Barack is trying to do is really naïve.  You know, beg a terrorist supporter to come and negotiate with you."

(UPDATE: Late today Obama spokesman Bill Burton, who thinks a Chicagoan should be president, fired back: "It's time for tough and direct diplomacy with Iran, not lectures from a Mayor who skipped out on the Iraq Study Group to give paid speeches, and who was naive and irresponsible enough to recommend someone with ties to convicted felons for Secretary of Homeland Security.")

The Bloomberg program is broadcast tonight at 8 Pacific time on, not too surprisingly, Bloomberg Television, which, along with the E! Network, rebroadcasts it many times over the weekend, when you really should be reading this non-naive blog.

--Andrew Malcolm

Biden scores with debate zinger

Even if Joe Biden fails to overcome the long, long odds he faces in his bid for the presidency, his legacy may live on with the crack he delivered about Rudy Giuliani at tonight's debate among the Democratic White House contenders.

Asked about his experience compared to Hillary Clinton's, Biden short-circuited the effort by MSNBC's two questioners, Brian Williams and Tim Russert, to make the debate's first hour-plus all about her.

"I'm not running against Hillary Clinton," he began. "I'm running to lead the free world.  I'm running to lead this country."

That, in itself, was a refreshing change of pace from what had been the relentless focus on Clinton. Then Biden turned his sights on Giuliani -- a shift probably welcomed by Democrats who had been watching the bickering among their candidates.

First, he termed Giuliani "probably the most under-qualified man since George Bush to seek the presidency." That garnered some laughter and applause, but Biden was merely setting up the sound bite of the night.

"Rudy Giuliani," he went on. "I mean, think about it.  Rudy Giuliani. There's -- there's only three things he mentions in a sentence:  a noun and a verb and 9/11."

That sparked a huge response from an otherwise restrained audience. And if Giuliani emerges as the GOP nominee, it's likely to be a line Democrats reprise among themselves again and again.

-- Don Frederick 

                                                                                                 

Romney, Giuliani get some key Southern endorsements

A couple of dueling endorsements for Republican candidates Wednesday. Actually, three. No, make that four.

Rudy Giuliani picked up the backing of Texas Gov. Rick Perry, a Southern conservative, which could be very helpful for the socially liberal Northeasterner. Perry didn't get into any of that abortion or gay stuff during his two-page paean of praise to the former New York mayor. He focused on Giuliani's executive experience prosecuting the mob, running the nation's largest city, handling the 9/11 crisis.

He called him "the most capable, the most prepared individual of either party to be the next president."

"He's a consistent leader with a track record of of consistent results," Perry said. "He offers America a much better vision than another Clinton president."

Mitt Romney picked up two endorsements from Southerners. One was from Rep. Connie Mack of populous Florida, son of the former Florida senator of the same name, and the other endorsement, interestingly enough, was from Bob Jones III. He's a very influential fellow from an old conservative Christian family in South Carolina, where Romney, another Northeasterner from a liberal state, trails in Republican polls.

The idea that such a prominent conservative evangelical like Jones backs Romney could assuage a lot of concern about the candidate's Mormon religion among many in South Carolina, where, you may have heard, the Mormon church is not all that big. And with the president's blessing, the school's alumni and friends could provide some effective troopers in the primary's political ground war.

Jones is president of the very socially conservative Christian Bob Jones University in Greenville. BJU, by the way, was the very first place George W. Bush headed in 2000 to launch his conservative Southern initiative the day after John McCain gave him that 19-point drubbing in New Hampshire. Not only did Bob Jones endorse Romney, but so did Dr. Bob Taylor, the dean of the university's School of Arts and Sciences.

Both men said they were making personal endorsements. Got that? A special unsigned statement at the top of the homepage on the university's website, right next to today's recommended Bible reading, said the school had never "officially" endorsed a political candidate and still wasn't (wink, wink), that Jones and Taylor were speaking personally in endorsing Mitt Romney, that everyone must make a decision of conscience, and these men had made theirs and they had chosen Gov. Mitt Romney as their candidate.

So anyone who supports Bob Jones University should have no doubts whom these two leaders support -- personally, of course. Naturally, everyone can make their own choice about which candidate named Mitt Romney they choose to vote for. Because the president's endorsement and the dean's endorsement, presented on the university's website homepage, is purely a personal decision. Totally up to you to pick your own candidate, because the university doesn't make such official choices.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Breaking News: Giuliani learns how to silence his cellphone

This just in: Rudy Giuliani will not be taking any more cellphone calls from his wife -- or anyone -- during speeches.

"I have become technologically more proficient," Giuliani admitted this evening during a conversation on the Fox New Channel's "Hannity & Colmes." "I figured out how to put it on vibrate ... If anybody is offended by it, I won't do it again."

Giuliani, interviewed with his wife, offered thoughts on a variety of issues:

On Hillary Clinton's experience: "I don't know Hillary's experience. She's never run a city. She's never run a state. She's never run a business. She has never met a payroll. She has never been responsible for the safety and security of millions of people, much less even hundreds of people. So I'm trying to figure out where the experience is here."

On Hillary Clinton's Iraq position: "I mean, how many positions have we had on Iraq? Six. We had her condemning Obama for saying that he would talk to Iran without preconditions. And now she is going to talk to Iran without preconditions. There is an ambiguity and a shifting of position here that indicates that there isn't like that firm ground that you need."

On Hillary Clinton's "willful suspension of disbelief" comment to Gen. David Petraeus: "I think she has some nerve, calling an American general, in command of our troops, putting his life at risk for this country, that Democrats have even said was doing a good job. I think she has some nerve attacking the man's character."

On his appearance this weekend at the Family Research Council forum: "There are differences on the abortion issue, not really on marriage. We agree 100% that marriage should be between a man and a woman ... on abortion, I'll try to tell them we want to get to the same place. I would like to see abortion ended except I believe you have to retain this individual liberty that in the kind of society we have you have to protect that." As for James Dobson and his followers: "I would urge on them ... to look at the whole candidate."

His wife, Judith, said of her role: "I'm not a political person. And I have no desire to sit in on Cabinet meetings. And I promise you, I'm not going to morph into a politician."

--Andrew Malcolm

A Massachusetts House race is closely watched

In a few hours, we'll learn whether voters in Massachusetts' 5th Congressional District have decided to send the widow of onetime Democratic presidential contender Paul Tsongas to Congress.  The most interesting aspect of the special election is that people are not sure whether Nikki Tsongas will win.

(UPDATE: Late Tuesday night, with most of the votes counted, the Associated Press reported that Tsongas scored a fairly narrow victory over her GOP opponent, 51% to 46%.)

Perhaps no other state in the nation is more identified with the Democratic Party than Massachusetts. The last time its 10-member House delegation included Republicans was in the mid-1990s.  Martin Meehan, the Democrat who represented the 5th District but who stepped down this year to become a college president, ran unopposed in 2006.  And in 2004, when he faced a GOP opponent, he won with 67% of the vote.

So, as we previously noted, it seemed safe to assume that the Democratic nominee to replace Meehan would have an easy time in today's balloting.  So much for assumptions.

Tsongas got roughed up a bit in winning the Democratic primary last month, taking some flak because she has never held an elective office.  That problem was pretty much neutralized when the GOP nominated Jim Ogonowski to oppose her -- he's also a first-time candidate.  But he's proved to be a good one.  And even if he only comes close to Tsongas in the final tally, many analysts ...

Giuliani accepts invite to conservative family forum

Stop the presses! Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor with the liberal social views, has become the last Republican presidential candidate to accept an invitation to appear at a "values voter" conference in Washington on Oct. 20.

The conference, expected to draw some 2,000 conservatives, is being organized by the Family Research Council, an influential conservative group whose leader, Tony Perkins, has been among those quietly meeting amid mumbling about running a third-party evangelical candidate if someone with a pro-choice stand on abortion and gay rights like Giuliani gets the GOP nomination.

One of the more surprising long-term developments in the Republican race this year has been the continued national polling strength of Giuliani in a party where an estimated 30-40% of its membership are considered evangelicals opposed to abortion and other of Giuliani's views.

Conventional wisdom has been that his support would melt as conservatives, at first blinded by the halo of his 9/11 leadership, come to know the thrice-married Giuliani and his liberal views. He trails in Iowa, where he has not invested as much time or money as Mitt Romney, but has pulled close or even with the former Massachusetts governor in New Hampshire and regularly polls among Republicans as the most electable of the party's candidates.

Perkins, in a recent exchange with David Brody of the Christian Broadcasting Network, predicted Giuliani's popularity would still diminish once Americans "realize how far outside of the mainstream of conservative thought that Mayor Giuliani's social views really are." If "by some chance" Giuliani did ...

Fundraising ploy backfires

The Sept. 11 attacks provide the rationale for Rudy Giuliani's presidential candidacy, allowing him to argue that his differences with the Republican base on key social issues are overshadowed by the terrorism threat -- and his credentials to combat it.  But for one day, at least, the Sept. 11 link is causing him some embarrassment.

Supporters in Palo Alto, Calif., trying to drum up interest for a Wednesday night fundraiser decided to set a specific figure for donors: $9.11.

Giuliani's campaign, not surprisingly, is chagrined.  Spokeswoman Maria Comella called the gimmick "an unfortunate choice."  She also noted that it was devised by "two volunteers who acted independently of, and without the knowledge of, the campaign."

Be that as it may, Democrat Chris Dodd's presidential campaign wasted little time reacting with a statement that expressed not only outrage but called attention to the ongoing umbrage Giuliani has taken to the much-discussed ad that questioned the integrity of Gen. David Petraeus, the commander of U.S. troops in Iraq.

"Exploiting the Sept. 11 attacks for fundraising purposes is absolutely unconscionable, shameless and sickening," the Dodd release says. "Mr. Giuliani was quick to express much vitriol for the independent ad created by MoveOn.org last week; we would hope he would express the same kind of outrage and indignation about this group that he is the beneficiary of.

"Furthermore, Mr. Giuliani should reject and/or return any money raised and ask that their activities on his behalf stop immediately."

One thing you can count on in politics -- hyperbole builds upon hyperbole.

-- Don Frederick

Sunday morning: Can't-miss Hillary TV

If guessing three winners in three races at the horse track is called a trifecta, what do you call Hillary Clinton's scheduled near-sweep of the Sunday news shows?  We count five separate appearances.  Would that be a quinfecta, then?

So far, Clinton's set to appear on "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" on ABC, "Meet the Press with Tim Russert" on NBC, "Face the Nation with Bob Schieffer" on CBS, "Late Edition with Wolf Blitzer" on CNN and "Fox News Sunday" with Chris Wallace.  It's the last show that has the most potential, frankly.  It comes almost a year to the day after Wallace had a not-so-warm-and-fuzzy moment with Bill Clinton when asking about the former president's efforts to neutralize Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda.

Hillary Clinton's appearances are all playing off her healthcare plan announcement this week, which gives it a news peg.  Still, it's quite a scheduling coup.

-- Scott Martelle

A New York Yankee abroad

No more diners in Durham or hog pens in Ottumwa.

Rudy Giuliani was hobnobbing with the bigs today over in London, where he met with Prime Minister Gordon Brown and former P.M. Margaret Thatcher, spoke about foreign affairs, talked tough about Iran and raised a little scratch for his American campaign fund.

On Iran getting a nuclear weapon, the former mayor said simply: "We will prevent them or we'll set them back five or 10 years." He added: "That is not said as a threat. That should be said as a promise."

Giuliani was clearly using London as a stage to talk back to American voters and portray himself as the toughest Republican candidate. As president, he said, he would increase the U.S. military by at least 10 combat brigades, combat Islamic terrorism and push for further NATO expansion.

"This is no time for defeatism and appeasement," Giuliani told the Atlantic Bridge, a group promoting ties between American and British conservatives. "It may be better to put it as Margaret Thatcher might have done--this is no time to go wobbly."

Giuliani said it would be a mistake to return to the defensive pre-9/11 posture rather than maintaining a strong offensive stance against terrorism. On Iran again, he said, "The policy of the United States should be very, very clear that we will use any option we believe is in our best interest to stop them from becoming a nuclear power. And that we're not going to allow that to happen."

The Times' Michael Finnegan has the complete story on this website and in Thursday's print editions.

--Andrew Malcolm

Can 9/11 hurt Rudy?

The "Swift boating" of Rudy Giuliani has begun. As long promised, the International Association of Firefighters plans to premier a 13-minute video documentary, "Rudy Giuliani: Urban Legend," at 2 p.m. (PDT) today, accusing the former New York mayor of twisting the facts of his role before and after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in order to portray himself as a hero.

The video will be debuted at this site.

In an April story (which you can read here), our colleague Peter Wallsten laid out the union's complaints about Giuliani and its plans to try to use 9/11 --- the centerpiece of the Republican's campaign for president --- against him.

The union has long been hostile to Giuliani, and earlier this year its members gave a rousing reception to another New Yorker, Hillary Clinton, the frontrunner in the Democratic presidential race, during a conference in Washington.

The new video uses interviews of family members of firefighters who died in the World Trade Center to blame Giuliani for an outdated radio communications system, for placing a key command center in a risky spot within the center itself, and for attempting to block the recovery effort before the firefighters' remains were found.

-- Don Frederick

Photo: Rudy Giuliani; Credit: Matthew Cavanaugh/EPA