Sarah Palin vs. Barack Obama: The approval gap silently shrinks to a few points

Not that it matters politically because obviously she's a female Republican dunce and he's obviously a male Democrat genius.

But Sarah Palin's poll numbers are strengthening.

And President Obama's are sliding.

Guess what? They're about to meet in the 40s.

Depending, of course, on which recent set of numbers you peruse and how the questions are phrased, 307 days into his allotted 1,461 the 44th president's approval rating among Americans has slid to 49% or 48%, showing no popularity bounce from his many happy trips, foreign and domestic.

Riding the wave of immense publicity and symbiotic media interest over her new book, "Going Rogue," and the accompanying promotional tour, Palin's favorable ratings are now at 43%, according to ABC. That's up from 40% in July.

One poll even gives her a 47% favorable.

Most recent media attention has focused on the 60% who say she's unqualified to become president. Her unfavorable rating is 52%, down from 53%, which still doesn't ignite a lot of optimism for Palin-lovers.

On the other hand, 35 months before the 2008 election, that Illinois senator was such a nobody that no one even thought to ask such a question about him. Things seem to change much more quickly these days.

Saturday night Palin's book bus swung by a mall in Roanoke, Va., a state Obama won a year ago but just recently elected a Republican governor to replace departing Tim Kaine, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee. The former Alaska governor wanted to greet the hundreds of fans already lining up in 39-degree weather for her Sunday morning signing.

"She brings out a different crowd, " Salem Republican Party Chairman Greg Habeeb told the Roanoke Times. Habeeb was struck by the numerous non-Republicans he spotted in the line snaking all over the mall. "She taps into something that the Republican Party really needs to tap into."

Sunday, Palin flew ahead of her bus to visit the Rev. Billy Graham and his son Franklin at the father's North Carolina home before her appearance today at Fort Bragg.

Overall, Palin's, well, campaign will visit 25 states, most of them politically crucial. Florida gets the most stops, three.

Everybody thinks 2012 when they think of Palin, who last week pushed Oprah's show to....

As Obama leaves for Asia, GOP gains first lead on generic congressional ballot since he took office

Time was when American presidents in domestic trouble would travel abroad to be seen positively back home as a world leader.

Then-freshman Sen. Barack Obama was hoping for a little of that back in the summer of 2008 when he staged his expensive campaign rally with an adoring throng in downtown Berlin. Alas, Germans couldn't vote for him -- or a Republican. But it looked great stateside for a few days.

After a brief media statement this morning to get him plastered on the daytime news, President Obama will make the long flight (just ask Sarah Palin) to Alaska to talk with U.S. troops at Elmendorf Air Force Base at local lunchtime while Air Force One refuels for a flight to Tokyo, beginning the president's nine-day trip across Asia. Talk about throngs.

Obama could use some good political news because as he boards the plane with his own bedroom and shower stall, word spread from the Gallup Poll folks that for the first time in over a year, more Americans say they would pick Republicans on a generic congressional ballot than a Democrat.

It's now 48% Republican and 44% Democrat. And this comes after months of the ...

New poll shows Americans' confidence wanes in Obama's bid to halt H1N1 swine flu pandemic

With the H1N1 swine flu continuing to spread faster than the government's creaky distribution system can get out the vaccine, Americans' confidence in the Obama administration's ability to prevent a nationwide pandemic of the deadly illness is crumbling.

A new CNN/Opinion Research Poll of 1,018 adult Americans finds that a shrinking number are very or somewhat confident about the Democratic administration's plans, while those lacking confidence are increasing.

Although much of the popular media's attention has been devoted to the congressional struggle and vote over costly healthcare reform legislation — and then last week's Ft. Hood shooting that killed 13 and wounded dozens — the threat of a massive pandemic claiming hundreds of lives looms as the kind of public disaster for Obama that the Bush administration's poor preparedness was after Hurricane Katrina.

Last month Obama declared a national emergency over the H1N1 flu potential.

But steady delays in manufacturing the vaccine and the federal government's distribution have continued. Deliveries of millions of doses have gone way beyond the original schedule. So late are deliveries that some medical experts say an epidemic will be well underway or over before all the doses become available in late December.

GOP Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, never a fan of big new government programs, has called this year's H1N1 swine flu preparations a "total failure." His belief seems to be spreading like a virus as well, with several polls showing a majority of Americans now have no intention of getting the doses, even if and when they become available.

Now, the new CNN Poll, taken Oct. 30-Nov. 1 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points, finds that the proportion of Americans who are very confident that the Obama White House can prevent a pandemic has fallen from a meager 15% around Labor Day to a worse 11% now. The proportion of those feeling "somewhat confident" has dropped from 44% to 40%.

Meanwhile, the proportion of those lacking any confidence has jumped from 40% to 49%.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Click here to get Twitter alerts of each new Ticket item. Or follow us @latimestot. And we're also over here on Facebook.

What H1N1 swine flu? Majority of Californians intend to ignore the late vaccine: Times/USC poll

A new poll confirms that the Obama administration and federal health officials have failed to convince Americans -- at least those in the most populous state of California -- of the seriousness of a H1N1 swine flu pandemic.

A majority of those registered voters polled by a new survey team involving The Times and the University of Southern California said they believed the new, delayed vaccine was safe.

But a majority also said they had no intention of getting it.

The findings come from a new Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California College of Letters, Arts & Sciences Poll. The survey, which interviewed 1,500 registered voters from Oct. 27 through Nov. 3, was conducted for The Times and USC by two nationally prominent polling firms, the Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies.

Today's results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

Only 5% of those polled said they had already been vaccinated. Of the rest, 52% said they didn't plan to get vaccinated. Of the 40% who said they wanted the vaccine, 12% said they already had attempted to find it but couldn't. 

Of those polled, 70% said they think the H1N1 vaccine is safe for most people, and only 17% said there was a strong chance the vaccine is unsafe.

Last month the Obama administration declared a national emergency over the H1N1 pandemic, as The Ticket reported here. But the government program has come under fire for long delays in deliveries of the vaccine.

Rep. Ron Paul has even called the federal program a "total failure." Obama officials, who are overseeing the vaccine distribution, have blamed the delays on manufacturers.

A previous national poll, as The Ticket reported here, found a large majority of Americans also intended to skip the recommended medical action.

-- Andrew Malcolm

No margin of error here. One-hundred percent of those clicking here get Twitter alerts of each new Ticket item. Or follow us   @latimestot  And we're also available over on Facebook.

Photo: Baltimore Sun (Another satisfied young vaccination customer).

Californians say no more gay marriage votes: Times/USC poll

A majority of California voters opposes putting the issue of gay marriage back on the ballot for another referendum.

According to a just-released survey by the new polling team of The Times and the University of Southern California, a small majority of Californians favors the right of gay couples to marry.

But a far larger proportion of the 1,500 registered voters in the new poll opposes putting the issue back on another statewide ballot next year. This week Maine became the 31st state where voters, in effect, defeated the idea of gay marriage in a statewide vote.

Not surprisingly, same-sex-marriage views were sharply polarized by political party; 66% of Democrats thought it should be legal and 71% of Republicans opposed it. Nonpartisan voters were less enthusiastic than Democrats but still backed it, 59% to 34%.

Overall, the smallest majority of 51% of California voters favored marriage rights for same-sex couples and 43% opposed them, according to the survey, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

However, a surprisingly large number of Californians -- almost 60% -- were certain that they did not want the issue revisited in 2010, just one election cycle after it last hit the ballot.

-- Andrew Malcolm

No margin of error here. One-hundred percent of those clicking here get Twitter alerts of each new Ticket item. Or follow us  @latimestot  And we're also available over on Facebook regardless of gender.

Photo: Associated Press

Election 2009: Where have all the young voters gone?

The tale of the tape is in the turnout.

In New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie pulled out a surprisingly comfortable victory over a better-financed incumbent. In Virginia, Republican Bob McDonnell won an impressive victory touting what he could do to create more jobs. 

In both cases, the key to victory was in who showed up. Put another way, the young people who fueled Barack Obama's historic presidential victory last year stayed home.

In New Jersey in 2008, the under-30 vote made up 22% of the electorate. One year later, the tally dropped to 8%.

And in Virginia, the under-30s made up 10% of this year's election, down from 21% when Obama was at the top of the ticket.

All of which may be another way of saying that Obama had enough charisma to overcome the historic apathy of the youth vote.

The issue for Democrats this morning: how to get the vote folks back before the 2010 elections.

-- Johanna Neuman

Photo:  Bob McDonnell  greets supporters during a campaign rally on Monday in Alexandria, Va. Credit: Getty Images

If you click here, you'll get Twitter alerts of each new Ticket item. Or follow us @latimestot. And we're also over here on Facebook.

Last-minute NY 23rd poll: Conservative Doug Hoffman surges, but ...

A last-minute poll of New York's suddenly significant 23rd District interim House race shows that with less than 12 hours before voting begins, the Conservative/Republican candidate Doug Hoffman has built a 5-point lead over Democrat Bill Owens.

But the newfound allies of Hoffman and the Republican National Committee had best hold off on the champagne purchases. The undecided voters there have doubled to nearly 1 in 5, making the final hours volatile.

With so much symbolism at stake in the minor race, Vice President Joe Biden parachuted into the district today, as The Ticket reported here earlier, to fire off several thousand words in support of Owens.

And the RNC made a quick ad buy to push the Conservative Party's Hoffman, who inherited the GOP's support when Dede Scozzafava, the official GOP candidate, saw the handwriting on the wall and quit Saturday under accusations that her pro-union, pro-abortion-rights views were not really Republican. Sunday she seemed to prove it by endorsing the Democrat.

New York's 23rd Congressional District was the scene of significant military....

Democrats facing Terrible Tuesday, polls say. So Biden heads to NY23 in last-minute rescue mission

It's looking like a dark day for Democrats tomorrow.

In the Virginia gubernatorial race, polls suggest Republican Bob McDonnell is poised for a rout.

And even in New Jersey, even with a not-exactly-photogenic Republican candidate Chris Christie (the overweight pol is seen above shaking hands with voters in June) and a last-minute appeal from the ever-photo-ready, stylishly-svelte President Obama, incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine is behind in the polls.

So, suddenly, Democrats are looking for hope in a New York congressional district so far north that it abuts Canada. There, a Republican family feud spurred by conservative ideologues could provide the party's only good news of the day.

Even that is a long shot -- the latest Public Policy Polling survey has conservative Doug Hoffman winning over Democrat Bill Owens by 17 points. And that's after Tea Party activists forced Dede Scozzafavo out of the race, prompting the Republican assemblywoman -- with a push from the White House -- to endorse Owens. So the Obama administration is dispatching Vice President Biden to stump for Owens today.

You can tell things are not looking good because Democrats are talking about how worrisome a Hoffman victory would be for the Republican Party. Take a listen to James Carville, waxing nostalgic for the "big tent" Republican Party. If you're not a Glenn Beck or Sarah Palin kind of Republican, he said, then conservative activists are "going to primary you."

The Republican Party seems to be going through some kind of purge, returning to its roots as an anti-tax, anti-spending, anti-government movement, with litmus tests for abortion and gay marriage. The Carville thesis is that if the GOP goes Right, it is doomed from winning national elections in the future.

Small comfort if Democrats lose the trifecta on Tuesday.

-- Johanna Neuman

Click here for Twitter alerts on each new Ticket item. Or follow us  @latimestot. We are also on Facebook.

Photo credit: Brendan Hoffman / Getty Images North America

Republican Bob McDonnell builds 11 point lead over Creigh Deeds in Virginia gov race: New poll

The good news for Republicans is that heading into the last week of the closely watched Virginia governor's campaign, their candidate, Bob McDonnell, leads his Democratic opponent by 11 points, according to a just-published poll.

Despite energetic campaign efforts by both President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden, plus extra spending by the Democratic National Committee, the Washington Post reports this afternoon that McDonnell has a majority of likely-voting Virginians, 55 to 44, over Democratic rival R. Creigh Deeds.

The last time McDonnell and Deeds faced each other on the ballot, in the 2005 attorney general's race, the Republican won by fewer than 350 votes.

The bad news for both Virginia and national Republicans: Seven in 10 likely voters told pollsters that the president's personality, character and record will not be a factor in their ballot choice next Tuesday.

This, of course, will not stop either winning side from discrediting/crediting the Democratic president, whose hand-picked DNC chairman, Tim Kaine, is also the current Virginia governor.

The same, of course, goes for the outcome in the other major governor's race, New Jersey, where Obama spoke last week for the reelection of Jon Corzine, who appears to be leading Republican Chris Christie.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Click here and get Twitter alerts of each Ticket item. Or follow us  @latimestot  Also on Facebook here.

Photo: Associated Press

N.Y. politics turns nasty -- so what's the news?

Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani looks like he's having a great time lately, stumping for successor Michael Bloomberg's who-cares-about-term-limits third term. Just Sunday, Giuliani got a standing ovation from an audience of orthodox Jews in Brooklyn when he predicted that if Bloomberg doesn't win, crime in New York could soar, turning the city into another Detroit.

“Detroit went from a great city with lots of good-paying jobs to a city that’s basically holding on for dear life,” Giuliani told the Boro Park Jewish Community at a Bloomberg rally. If William Thompson, an African American, is elected, Giuliani intoned, crime will escalate to levels not seen since the early 1990s. "You know exactly what I’m talking about,” he said.

No worries on that front apparently. With one week to go before the election, the Quinnipiac Poll reports that Bloomberg leads his rival by 18 points. "It's been shaping up all along, and now the new numbers say it looks like a Bloomberg blowout," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

A popular former mayor who was dubbed "America's mayor" for his handling of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Giuliani has long eyed a race for higher office. He almost ran for the Senate against Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2000, but, diagnosed with prostate cancer, elected to wait. Last year, he ran for the Republican presidential nomination, dropping out early and throwing his support to John McCain.

Now, with Gov. David Paterson far behind in the polls and President Obama signaling that he does not support the governor, all bets are off. Giuliani is said to be weighing a bid for the job. But so is ambitious state Atty. Gen. Andrew Cuomo, son of a former governor, who is so eager not to run against Giuliani that he reportedly sent a secret emissary to warn Rudy off the race.

"Rudy doesn't want to run against Andrew, and he has been told Andrew is running," one Democrat told the New York Post. The news was described as a brass-knuckles message between "friends."

Hey, it's New York.

-- Johanna Neuman

Click here and get Twitter alerts of each Ticket item. Or follow us  @latimestot  Also on Facebook here.