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Joe Biden, the senator from Delaware and one of those vanquished by Barack Obama in the Democratic presidential race, remains a hot prospect in the vice presidential sweepstakes (something retired Gen. Wesley Clark probably can't claim).
The 65-year-old Biden, as chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, would bring the deep-seated experience in international matters that Obama lacks. Although Delaware and its 3 electoral voters almost assuredly are in the Democratic column, Biden could help his party's ticket in two nearby and crucial states. He's well-known in some parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey, by virtue of having been in the public eye for so long.
But perhaps his biggest asset is his Roman Catholic faith; in the view of many political handicappers, an Obama/Biden ticket could make inroads with a bloc of voters that has been resistant so far to the presumptive presidential nominee.
There is one slight complication. Biden is up for reelection this November -- he's heavily favored to snare a seventh six-year term -- and in some states it is illegal to be on the ballot for two offices at once.
In Delaware, the issue is simply not addressed, state Commissioner of Elections Elaine Manlove recently told an NBC affiliate in New Jersey. "It's not that our law says he can't (run for Senate and vice president at the same time). It's that it doesn't say it at all. There's nothing in Delaware law that says he can't."
The National Journal's Hotline noted earlier today that if state officials were asked to weigh in on the issue, Biden might have a built-in advantage. Delaware's attorney general happens to be Beau Biden, one of the senator's sons.
Within the last 50 years, three vice presidential nominees -- all Democrats -- have simultaneously sought reelection to Senate seats: Lyndon Johnson of Texas in 1960, fellow Texan Lloyd Bentsen in 1988 and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut in 2000.
Each won their Senate races, but only Johnson also was part of a winning national ticket (meaning he gave up his seat on Capitol Hill).
-- Don Frederick
Photo credit: Associated Press
The Republican National Committee has spun off its own independent expenditure committee and plans an initial $3 million ad buy targeting Barack Obama in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Politico reports.
Why the separate group?
Brad Todd, who will run the effort, blamed Obama in a statement to Politico: "Following Barack Obama's decision to become the only major party presidential candidate in history to not adhere to campaign spending caps, the Republican National Committee has begun an independent expenditure campaign in accordance with FEC regulations."
Under federal law there are no limits on how much the group can spend, though it cannot coordinate efforts with John McCain's campaign or the RNC. Still, both have helped to raise some of the funds that will launch the new effort.
So now we know where the RNC will be funneling some of its cash advantage over the Democratic National Committee to try to compensate for the record-breaking fundraising Obama has enjoyed. And the decision to target those Rust-Belt states underscores the GOP view that Obama is vulnerable in that part of the nation. Three of the four -- Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- went Democratic in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections.
Lot of white working-class men and women in those states, which account for 68 electoral votes.
-- Scott Martelle
It wasn't the sort of issue that John McCain (or Barack Obama) needed to prepare for Saturday in Washington when each courted Latino elected officials at their annual meeting. But Monday, at a McCain town hall meeting in Pipersville, Pa., a woman had a pointed question for the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, a query sparked by America's changing demographics.
 "Why, as an American, do I have to push a button to speak English or hear English?"
The audience, a sea of mostly white faces, erupted in deafening applause.
"I think you struck a nerve," said McCain, for whom this is a delicate issue, given his support in recent years of efforts to reform U.S. immigration law that included a "path to citizenship" for most illegal immigrants that was derided by its foes as "amnesty."
"I tell ya," continued the woman, "I really get ticked. I really do."
"I can tell," said McCain.
"And then you go into Lowe's," she continued, referring to the home improvement store, "and it says 'Entrada.' And every utility bill you got has got a foreign language on it."
Oh, and by the way, she added, would he autograph a copy of his book, a gift to her husband for his 71st birthday?
On immigration, McCain gave his now-standard reply, acknowledging ...
Read more John McCain gets put on the linguistic spot »
Aboard the 'Straight Talk Express' -- No one cracked a bottle of Champagne on its nose. No one cut a ribbon. Perhaps that was because the maiden voyage of John McCain’s new campaign plane was missing one vital ingredient: the senator himself.
McCain's new 95-seat Boeing 737-400 left Washington this morning carrying journalists and staffers to Harrisburg, Pa., where McCain had spent the night. The plane, paid for by the campaign (media riders reimburse the campaign for their shares), had been refurbished to re-create an airborne version of the Straight Talk Express bus, McCain's signature campaign vehicle, and replaced a plane leased from Jet Blue.
As always, press rides in the back, Secret Service agents in the middle cabin, and the candidate in first class. To replicate the horseshoe shaped banquette of the bus, where the candidate engages in free-wheeling discussions with reporters, one of the forward cabins has been modified to include a captain’s chair for McCain and a straight banquette for the press. FAA regulations require clear aisles, so a curved bench was out.
The plane's outer shell was repainted, as well, with McCain’s motto "Reform, Prosperity, Peace" on the side and the campaign's Web address -- www.johnmccain.com -- on the blue-and-gold tail. McCain got his first ride for the short hop from Harrisburg to Allentown, Pa., and apparently missed some of the most salient exterior décor.
"I thought it just says 'Straight Talk Express,' " he told reporters who asked how it felt to see his name emblazoned on the tail. "Whoops. I feel wonderful ... Maybe it’s a little added free publicity, I don’t know, at various airports."
There is one thing he’ll miss about his old Jet Blue-leased plane, though, and he’ll be feeling the loss starting Tuesday, when he is scheduled to fly from Indianapolis to Cartagena, Colombia, for a trip that will include a stop in Mexico.
"In interest of full disclosure," said McCain, "you know we used to have television sets on Jet Blue, and I miss out on my fix."
-- Robin Abcarian
Much attention, understandably, is being paid to the notes Barack Obama sounds in his first general election television ad, which starts running Friday and can be viewed here.
Its emphasis on family values, self reliance and patriotism would have made Ronald Reagan's media shop proud. And in case anyone misses the point, the spot's title -- "Country I Love" -- says it all.
What really grabs us, however, is where the ad will appear (and, in one case, where it won't).
For the most part, the 18-state list is predictable. It includes the battlegrounds, large and small, that political analysts expect to watch through election day: Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico among them.
But the list also includes a handful of reliably Republican places where Obama aides have been saying they believe he can compete, based on strength he showed among certain voting blocs during the primary season.
The states in this category are Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Carolina and Virginia.
And then there are two states -- Alaska and North Dakota -- where the airing of the Obama ad demonstrates that:
A) His campaign knows something about these GOP redoubts that the rest of us doesn't;
B) When you're riding herd over an organization that raises massive amounts of cash seemingly without breaking a sweat -- and just today announced it was breaking free of the restraints imposed by the campaign finance system, as our friends at The Swamp write about here -- you can afford to take a flier on a couple of longshots, especially when the media markets are inexpensive;
C) It's always fun, when the November election still seems a long way off, to play in a few of your rival's backyards, if for no other reason than to cause some headaches on the other side.
Probably some combination of A, B and C explains the decision to advertise in Alaska (which President Bush carried with 61% of the vote in 2004) and North Dakota (which Bush won with 63% of the vote four years ago).
Looking at all seven states where the Obama ad buy raises eyebrows, here are some of the daunting historical facts ...
Read more Barack Obama ad targets include some shockers »
It strikes us that both presidential campaigns this week ignored the cardinal rule of real estate: location, location, location.
 It was a foregone conclusion that Barack Obama would receive an official blessing from Al Gore, the question was when and where. The ringing endorsement Gore bestowed Monday came a bit later than might have been expected, but the real surprise was the setting -- a rally in Detroit, the leading city in the one state where words from perhaps the world's best-known advocate for transforming oil-based economies might be greeted with chagrin.
True, Gore carried Michigan by about 5 percentage points in his 2000 presidential bid. But in that campaign he did not stress the environmental call to arms that since then has become his life's mission.
Although we appreciate the skepticism with which many greet any analysis of Democratic maneuvering by Karl Rove, we do think he got it right on Fox's Hannity & Colmes when he said, "If you're an autoworker or in the auto-parts business or somebody who feels strongly about the auto economy, you don't want to have Al Gore sort of rubbing your nose in it in your own hometown."
Rove mentioned alternative sites for the Gore/Obama love-fest, and two made particular sense to us: Colorado or New Mexico, states expected to be battlegrounds in the general election and places where the environmental movement is revered by some and supported by most.
Similarly, of the possible venues for John McCain to announce his change in position of offshore oil drilling, was Houston the best choice? We don't think so.
McCain's decision to propose an end to the longstanding federal moratorium on oil exploration in coastal waters -- a ban he had long backed -- may play out as a bold stroke that benefits from growing public anger over rising gasoline prices. And, as the Houston Chronicle reported, McCain's audience at a ballroom "in the nation's energy capital gave him two standing ovations as he called for fewer federal regulations on oil exploration."
Maybe his campaign wanted to ensure he received a warm response. But the chosen audience also made it that much easier for critics to argue that McCain, on most issues, was little different than President Bush and that his policies were more oriented toward big business than the average citizen.
An audience of long-haul truckers or residents of exurbs in Ohio or Pennsylvania -- two of the key targets in November -- probably would have been just as welcoming toward McCain's new policy.
-- Don Frederick
Photo credits: Associated Press
Don't bring a knife to a gun fight, the old saying goes, but Sen. Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, has suddenly escalated his rhetoric this weekend.
Sounds like he's anticipating some tough political struggling with the Republicans in these next few months, or trying to create that impression anyway. Or he just watched a 21-year-old movie (see video below).
"If they bring a knife to the fight," Obama told a crowd in Philadelphia last night about his Republican opponents, "we bring a gun."
Say what? This is only June! For pete's sake.
Is this the new kind of politician full of hope who wants to change Washington's ways? He anticipates some kind of close-in fighting with his 71-year-old opponent, John McCain, and his gang of GOP suits with their own secret signs?
Obama was responding to a man in the Pennsylvania crowd who, as the freshman Illinois senator was describing the no-doubt nefarious tactics he expects from GOP opponents this fall, shouted out, "Don't give in!"
"From what I understand, folks in Philly like a good brawl," Obama went on, according to the pooled press report. "I've seen Eagles fans."
Set aside for a moment the dissonant sound of an urban lawmaker speaking lightly about guns.
Or how about the fact that he stole that line from Sean Connery in "The Untouchables," which is from Chicago too, come to think of it. See video below. For a little more on this story, go here.
--Andrew Malcolm
Photo Credit: AP
On this, the first anniversary of our Top of the Ticket blog, we are reminded of the mercurial, unpredictable nature of U.S. politics -- part of what makes what we do so fascinating.
Our goal -- one of us on the East Coast and the other on the far more important or at least less humid West Coast -- was to write about Campaign '08 virtually around the clock.
Our second-ever posting, 12 months ago today, previewed an upcoming L.A. Times/Bloomberg Poll; later in the day, we detailed the results of the nationwide survey. The findings were in line with other polls of the time.
In the Republican presidential race, which then seemed the most likely to last deep into the primary season, Rudy Giuliani was perched in first place. His lead wasn't overwhelming, but it was strong enough that he appeared certain to remain a major contender.
His liberal record on social issues loomed as an obvious liability within his party, but his tough-on-terrorism message was attracting substantial support from moderates and GOP-leaning independents.
His major headache among rivals last June was an as-yet-undeclared candidate who was riding a wave as the great conservative hope -- Fred Thompson. He ran a strong second in the poll.
Lagging far behind were John McCain and Mitt Romney, each barely with double-digit support. In our preview posting, we were especially scornful of McCain, noting sarcastically (and foolishly, as it turned out) that in the poll, he found himself "in heated competition with the 'Don't Know' category."
Meriting no mention from us was Mike Huckabee, one of several back-of-the-pack candidates barely earning any support across the country.
The Democratic race, at that point, seemed so much more cut-and-dried.
Hillary Clinton was the clear front-runner; Barack Obama was just as clearly ...
Read more Top of the Ticket, the start of Year Two »
In the pantheon of Bill and Hillary Clinton loyalists, Lanny Davis continues to carve out a special niche for himself.
A friend of Hillary's since they were law students together at Yale, he served as a White House special counsel to Bill from 1996 to 1998 and in that position and as a private attorney fiercely defended him during the impeachment saga.
Davis has shown that same ferocity in promoting Hillary's '08 presidential campaign, particularly in its latter stages. The day after her victory in Pennsylvania's April 22 primary, he penned a blog headlined: "The Top Ten List of Undisputed Facts Showing Barack Obama's Weaknesses in the General Election Against John McCain." And in early May, he was at the center of memorably contentious discussions of her candidacy on CNN.
On Tuesday night, he launched -- without, he said, coordination with the Clinton campaign -- a petition drive aimed at persuading Obama to tap her as his running mate. The effort officially begins today at a new website, womenforfairpolitics.com. And here's a missive Davis sent to Obama: "We write you because we believe it is very important for the Democrats to win back the presidency in 2008. To do so, we must field the strongest possible ticket for the Democratic Party. We believe the 2008 election could be close. And your selection of a vice presidential candidate may make the difference between victory and defeat.
"We write to urge you to select Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton to be your choice for vice president because we believe that she would be, by far, the most qualified and strongest candidate to be your running mate.
"Both you and Sen. Clinton during this campaign have demonstrated strengths in different segments of the electorate and in different parts of the country. Together, you stand the best chance of making U.S. history not once but twice -- the first African American president and the first female vice president since the founding of our great nation.
"We know this is ultimately your decision on who is to be your running mate. But with the greatest respect, we ask you to select Sen. Clinton in recognition of the more than 17 million Democrats who supported her at the polls and who, in combination with your more than 17 million supporters, would form the base of a successful presidential campaign in the November election."
The new website joins one set up a few weeks back by a lower-level Clinton acolyte, voteboth.com, that has sought to build momentum for an Obama-Clinton pairing. Davis is listed as one of its "key supporters."
-- Don Frederick
As has been frequently noted, Sen. Ted Kennedy's much-publicized endorsement of Barack Obama paid little or no direct dividend a few days later in the Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary; Hillary Clinton easily carried the state on Super Tuesday back in February. One advantage she enjoyed -- mostly overlooked in the hoopla over Kennedy's nod -- was backing from longtime Boston Mayor  Thomas Menino.
What Menino lacked as a national political figure he more than made up for by galvanizing a well-oiled political machine on Clinton's behalf, much as Govs. Ted Strickland of Ohio and Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania did on her behalf in primaries that followed.
Menino, though, has strayed from the party line pushed by Strickland, Rendell and other staunch Clinton supporters that, on a ticket headed by Obama, she is the obvious choice as a running mate.
In a recent comment to the Bloomberg News Service, Menino said, "If she got back into the White House, she'd bring along Big Daddy, and he would overshadow the president."
Big Daddy, of course, would be the ex-president, Bill Clinton. And we have to give Menino credit for colorfully encapsulating ...
Read more Not all Hillary Clinton backers buy "dream ticket" idea »
Largely obscured in the understandable uproar over Hillary Clinton's Friday reference to the 1968 assassination of Robert F. Kennedy has been the fallacy of the basic point she sought to convey -- that there is nothing all that unusual about the trajectory of her battle with Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nod.
Before invoking the Kennedy killing in comments to a South Dakota newspaper that she quickly rued, Clinton said, "My husband did not wrap up the nomination in 1992 until he won the California primary, somewhere in the middle of June, right?"
Actually, wrong in all but the most technical sense.
Bill Clinton became the hands-down front-runner in his party's contest 16 years ago in mid-March, when his main competitor, Paul Tsongas, exited the race. There was an outbreak of buyer's remorse a few weeks later ...
Read more Hillary Clinton as historian: a bad match »
Yes, there are still states -- and a territory -- to vote, Democratic delegates to select, superdelegates to decide and conventions to be held, but it's hard not to peek ahead to the fall matchup. You can make your own presumptions about whether the Dems will go with Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, but for the sake of argument, we'll presume it's Obama.
And polls, fickle though they may be, show that the general election could be just as tight as the Democratic primaries in crucial swing states where Obama's race and perceived class work against him (witness Kentucky). The tallies maintained at Real Clear Politics give a broader sense of the challenge for Obama and for John McCain.
You can go over there and play, but the overview is the latest state poll aggregates give the current advantage (some of these are within the margin of error) to McCain in Ohio, Florida and Missouri and the advantage to Obama in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (though McCain led in the most recent poll) and Iowa with Michigan essentially a dead heat.
Now take those poll numbers over to an interactive electoral college map and the advantage is: Nobody. Under that scenario, with Michigan a virtual tie and polls too erratic in New Mexico to count, Obama and McCain would be separated by four electoral votes and both would need Michigan to put them over the 270 threshold.
Let the fun begin. Oh, wait -- it already has.
-- Scott Martelle
Along with winning the Oregon primary and passing his self-declared milestone of obtaining a majority of pledged Democratic convention delegates, Barack Obama had another reason to be in a good mood Tuesday, even as he absorbed a thumping in Kentucky. 
The Rev. Jeremiah Wright -- his preacher-turned-bete noir, canceled two approaching appearances in all-so-important Pennsylvania.
Wright was scheduled to headline a revival at a church in the Philadelphia area on May 28 and 29, and then preach at another local church on June 1. But the Philadelphia Inquirer reported that he had decided to take a pass, citing fatigue.
Understandable; we imagine that almost single-handedly wrecking the presidential campaign of a former parishioner can be quite exhausting (to recollect his now-infamous appearance at Washington's National Press Club, go here).
This quote from one of the ministers who was going to host Wright, however, must have sent shivers up the spines of Obama aides. The Rev. Martini Shaw told the Inquirer that Wright "desired some time for refreshment and refueling."
Just what the campaign doesn't need -- Wright resurfacing at some point with a full tank of gasoline (figuratively speaking, of course).
-- Don Frederick
Photo credit: Getty Images
Hillary Clinton stalwart Geraldine Ferraro got the week off to a rousing start by declaring to the New York Times that Barack Obama is "terribly sexist."
She elaborated this morning on the "Today" show, describing as "dismissive" Obama's crack, during the heat of the Pennsylvania primary campaign, that Clinton was "talking like Annie Oakley" as she sought the support of hunters.
Clinton herself did not mention Obama in a story in today's Washington Post based on an interview during which, the paper says, she "for the first time addressed what women have been talking about for months, what she refers to as the 'sexist' treatment she has endured at the hands of the pundits, media and others."
That would include, reporter Lois Romano writes, "The lewd T-shirts. The man who shouted 'Iron my shirt' at a campaign event. The references to her cleavage and her cackle."
All of this, Clinton says, has been "deeply offensive to millions of women."
(The piece does not note that the brief cleavage controversy of last summer was ignited by the paper's own fashion writer, Robin Givhan. The Clinton camp made its outrage known at the time; in fact, Givhan's article became the basis of a fundraising appeal.)
The Clinton comment gaining the most attention came when, Romero writes, she was asked "if she thinks this campaign has been racist [and] she says she does not."
Instead, Clinton said: "The manifestation of some of the sexism that has gone on in this campaign is somehow more respectable, or at least more accepted, and . . . there should be equal rejection of the sexism and the racism when it raises its ugly head. It does seem as though the press at least is not as bothered by the incredible vitriol that has been engendered by the comments by people who are nothing but misogynists."
The entire Post story can be read here.
Democrats worried about Barack Obama's primary losses to Hillary Clinton in key states might find some solace from a poll of Pennsylvania voters released earlier this week.
Yes, the survey by the Harrisburg-based Susquehanna Polling and Research showed Clinton the stronger November contender against John McCain in the state; she led the presumptive Republican presidential nominee by 11 percentage points, 49% to 38%.
But Obama was up by 7 points, 46% to 39%, a margin just outside the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.
The pollsters, in writing about their findings, noted that compared with Clinton, Obama had problems in Pennsylvania's southwest corner -- an area "where Democrats are more culturally conservative on social issues like gun control, abortion and gay marriage and have voting patterns similar to so-called 'Reagan Democrats.' "
That's John Murtha country, home turf of the legendary House member who worked hard for Clinton in the April 22 primary. So with Obama presumably on the path to his party's nomination, one of his challenges will be to bring Murtha fully on board.
Given Obama's front-runner status -- the New York Times has a telling piece today on the "subdued" nature surrounding Clinton's campaign appearances of late -- attention is shifting wholesale to the shape of the Electoral College map ...
Read more Pennsylvania poll offers good news for Democrats »
Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, who describes himself as the "last of the Mohicans" sticking by Hillary Clinton to the bitter end of the Democratic presidential primary, today endorsed the idea of a ticket that combines her with rival Barack Obama.
Pundits have speculated that a high-profile Clinton supporter -- such as Rendell -- would make a good running mate for Obama, should the Illinois senator finally lock down that party's nomination.
But Rendell says Obama shouldn't settle for a Clinton substitute.
"If Sen. Obama becomes our nominee and he wants . . . someone to carry the Clinton banner," Rendell told CNN, "there's no question in my mind they should ask Hillary Clinton to be that candidate."
Would she accept? Rendell, one of the Clinton family's closest advisors, conceded he's not sure.
"I don't know whether she would accept," he said. "I don't know whether he would do it. But don't settle for . . . a Clinton supporter. You've got the real thing, someone who has energized voters."
-- Christi Parsons
Christi Parsons writes for the Swamp of the Chicago Tribune's Washington bureau.
Tuesday night, Barack Obama conceded West Virginia to Hillary Clinton in a cellphone voicemail from the runway in Cape Girardeau, Mo., to the phone of the New York senator's assistant, after an appearance aimed at the general election against the Republican dude from Arizona.
A little PR payback perhaps for the private concessions Clinton has delivered after her previous defeats to Obama that deny the victor any TV footage of the loser talking defeat?
So this morning the Clinton-Obama wrestling match continues unabated and the New Yorker gave no sign in her public remarks of relenting in her campaign, although the delegate math seems so fully stacked against her.
"I am," Clinton told the crowd of West Virginia supporters, although she was really warning a couple hundred uncommitted Democratic superdelegates not to jump yet, "more determined than ever to carry on this campaign until everyone has had their voices heard."
Let's see, "everyone" means then at least all the way through June 3 and Montana where, coincidentally, another Clinton, named Bill, was speaking outdoors at the same moment as a mountain spring rain began to fall. So, no quitting after another Clinton win next week in Kentucky? Until all the ...
Read more Victorious Clinton vows to fight until 'everyone' is heard »
Virtually all the nation's political attention in recent weeks has focused on the compelling state-by-state presidential nomination struggle between two Democrats and the potential for party-splitting strife over there.
But in the m eantime, quietly, largely under the radar of most people, the forces of Rep. Ron Paul have been organizing across the country to stage an embarrassing public revolt against Sen. John McCain when Republicans gather for their national convention in Minnesota at the beginning of September.
Paul's presidential candidacy has been correctly dismissed all along in terms of winning the nomination. He was even excluded as irrelevant by Fox News from a nationally-televised GOP debate in New Hampshire.
But what's been largely overlooked is Paul's candidacy as a reflection of a powerful lingering dissatisfaction with the Arizona senator among the party's most conservative conservatives. As anticipated in late March in The Ticket, that situation could be exacerbated by today's expected announcement from former Republican Rep. Bob Barr of Georgia for the Libertarian Party's presidential nod, a slot held by Paul in 1988.
Never mind Ralph Nader, Republican and Democratic parties both face ...
Read more Ron Paul's forces quietly plot GOP convention revolt against McCain »
Some people have been looking for signs of a graceful exit from the Democratic presidential race by New York Sen. Hillary Clinton. They probably should not be holding their breath.
Terry McAuliffe, her campaign chairman and himself a former head of the Democratic National Committee, made it clear Sunday that isn't happening anytime soon.
And Clinton's chief spokesman, Howard Wolfson, went on "Fox News Sunday" to state and re-state a firm belief that his boss would win and she was in the race until somebody got 2,209 delegates, which would mean counting Florida and Michigan.
McAuliffe was in there swinging too on both "Face the Nation" and "Meet the Press," arguing that Clinton still has a chance to win the party nomination.
It's a good time for her campaign to make that argument because, if you believe some state polls, Clinton is poised to crush Barack Obama in West Virginia in Tuesday's primary voting there, some suggest by as much as a two-to-one margin. Once a solidly Democratic state, it's gone to the GOP two straight times now.
And if the superdelegates are smart, McAuliffe suggested, they'll resist the Obama bandwagon effect, hold out and not do anything that might turn off the many....
Read more Don't push her! Clinton's campaign chair warns fellow Democrats »
"The Democratic race now moves to West Virginia," Jay Leno noted during his monologue Thursday night on "The Tonight Show." "Today, Hillary Clinton claimed she always wanted to be a coal miner. But those dreams were da shed when she was forced to attend Wellesley and Yale."
The political focus now does, indeed, shift to the Mountaineer State for its primary there next Tuesday. And then Kentucky and Oregon and Puerto Rico down to the very end in Montana on June 3 when springtime there is just weeks away.
The Times' not-so-old political pro, Mark Z. Barabak, had an interesting conversation with another not-so-old political pro, Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist who cut his presidential political teeth in the 1980 Jimmy Carter campaign. Later he worked in the unsuccessful presidential efforts of Al Gore and John Kerry. Devine is not involved with any candidate this time around.
But the way he sees the inevitable delegate math in favor of Barack Obama and the current Democratic race ending is, counterintuitively, the worst thing that could happen to the Illinois senator in....
Read more Why Barack Obama fears a sudden end to Hillary Clinton's campaign »
With the Democratic primary struggle between Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton possibly prolonged by Republicans crossing over to perversely support the New Yorker, conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh has unfurled a figurative "Mission Accomplished" banner on his radio program.
And although the bombastic broadcaster has absolutely no control over any of it, he has also officially urged two seemingly contradictory things: that Clinton should continue her now nearly hopeless struggle to win the Democratic presidential nomination -- "You've come too far to quit now; don't listen to the voices of surrender" -- and urged Democrats to nominate Obama, the freshman senator from Illinois.
"I now believe he would be the weakest of the Democrat nominees," Limbaugh said. "“He can get effete snobs, he can get wealthy academics, he can get the young, and he can get the black vote. But Democrats do not win with that.”
That's the showbiz point of Limbaugh's initially silly but then seriously serious Operation Chaos, not to pick any particular Democratic candidate but to help them both bloody each other to irreparably hurt the liberal cause for the fall campaign.
Limbaugh says he came upon the disruptive idea when it ...
Read more Rush Limbaugh proclaims 'Mission Accomplished' in Operation Chaos vs. Obama, Clinton »
Rush Limbaugh, the self-appointed Commander-in-Chief of Operation Chaos, is puffing on his immense cigar and gloating at this very moment in his Florida bunker. And preparing to celebrate two more grand and glorious political victories over Democrats today, no matter who wins the primaries in Indiana and Florida.
 Usually as shy and retiring as, say, P.T. Barnum, the influential conservative radio talk-show host is in his bombastic element these past couple of months, ordering many of his 12 million-plus obedient daily listeners to switch their voting registration presumably from the Republican party and go cast a ballot wherever they are for Sen. Hillary Clinton.
Not because he suddenly likes her after all these years of anti-Clinton rants. Nor, judging by what he's said on the air, because he's a huge fan of the presumptive Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain, who isn't conservative enough for the broadcaster.
Rushbo says he couldn't care less who wins the Democratic Party's presidential nomination. He just wants the two surviving candidates to beat up on each other as long as possible, hopefully...
Read more Rush Limbaugh says Clinton-Obama race is proceeding precisely according to his plan »
Funny how that recent memo from Hillary Clinton loyalist Harold Ickes recapping all sorts of positive poll numbers for her didn't include a survey from her neck of the woods.
A late April poll of New Jersey voters by Braun Research found -- no real surprise -- that either Clinton or Barack Obama would win the state and its 15 electoral votes in November against John McCain. The surprise was that Obama ran substantially ahead of McCain, more so than Clinton. He beat the presumptive Republican presidential nominee by 24 percentage points; her margin was 14 points.
And here was the real shocker: In a state where Clinton, senator from neighboring New York, won the Feb. 5 primary by 10 points, 45% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents now said they wanted to see Obama as the party's nominee, compared with 38% who picked Clinton.
Less than three months after Clinton's primary win, "some New Jersey voters feel buyer’s remorse,” said poll director Patrick Murray.
The survey was conducted largely before the Rev. Jeremiah Wright's rancorous session at the National Press Club in Washington last week caused major political turmoil for Obama, so perhaps a snapshot taken this week of voter attitudes in the Garden State might not be so rosy for him.
By the same token, the Braun poll was taken in the immediate wake of Clinton's intensive campaign -- and solid primary win -- in Pennsylvania, a state that shares several media markets with a fair chunk of New Jersey.
-- Don Frederick
As far as Sen. John McCain is concerned, the Republican presidential nomination is a done deal and he's working on uniting the party behind him. But thousands of Republicans -- particularly supporters of Texas Rep. Ron Paul -- aren't buying that.
In the Pennsylvania primary, more than 215,000 Republicans cast ballots for Paul or former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabe e, who quit campaigning weeks ago. Together, they captured 27% of the Republican vote.
That was tame compared with the uproar last weekend at Nevada's Republican Party Convention. Or before that in Missouri.
About 600 well-organized Paul supporters overwhelmed McCain's forces, as The Ticket reported earlier this week, and engineered a rule change that permitted national convention delegates to be nominated from the floor, wresting the task from party establishment leaders.
That evening, party leaders unexpectedly adjourned the session, saying the proceedings would take too long to finish that night.
But tongues were set wagging about whether the adjournment was a maneuver to save McCain from the embarrassment of being swamped by Paul delegates.
Eric Herzik, a political scientist at the University of Nevada, Reno, said the disruption reflected, among other things, that McCain had "yet to capture the hearts and minds of Nevada Republicans." Previously, Paul forces had elected about one-third of the delegates to the Missouri state Republcan convention.
As the 72-year-old Paul, who is unopposed in the November election for his 11th House term, suggested to his dedicated troops earlier this year in a video, they should prepare for for the long haul.
And buy his new book, which has promptly soared to the top of Amazon.com's bestseller list.
All of which suggests there might be some drama or at least confrontations in St. Paul at the GOP's national convention in September after all.
-- Maeve Reston
Photo Credit: AP
A just-released "memo" from Hillary Clinton loyalist Harold Ickes -- ostensibly directed at Democratic superdelegates, but also meant for a broader audience (like us) -- succinctly and effectively rolls out the spate of new poll data that bolsters her case that she, rather than Barack Obama, offers Democrats their best chance in the looming matchup with John McCain.
Here are the key details from the release: "HEAD-TO-HEAD WITH MCCAIN: In a hypothetical general election match-up with McCain, Clinton wins handily (50-41) while Obama is virtually tied with McCain (46-44), according to the AP-Ipsos poll released Monday. A new poll from CBS/NYT show Clinton beating McCain by five points (48-43), while Obama ties McCain (45-45). The new Fox poll has Clinton beating McCain by one point (45-44), while Obama trails McCain by three points (43-46). And in Gallup's daily tracking poll, Clinton leads McCain by one point (46-45) while Obama trails McCain by two points (44-46).
"SWING STATES: New Quinnipiac polls out today show Clinton dramatically outperforms Obama in the critical swing states of Ohio in Florida. In Ohio, Clinton beats McCain by ten points (48-38), while Obama loses to him by one point (43-44). In Florida, Clinton beats McCain by 8 (49-41), while Obama loses to him by one point (42-43). Hillary also tops McCain by 14 points in Pennsylvania (51-37), while Obama's lead over McCain is in single digits.
"CLINTON BEATS MCCAIN AMONG INDEPENDENT VOTERS; OBAMA TIES HIM: The new AP poll has Clinton leading McCain among independents (50-34) while Obama is tied with him (42-42). The NBC/WSJ poll notes that Obama’s negative ratings among independents are they highest they have ever been."
As tracked by Time magazine's Page blog, some superdelegates just aren't getting the message, however.
Also, the polling results that most immediately will count in the Democratic battle will be what happens at the polling places in North Carolina and Indiana on Tuesday (for the latest trends, see here and here).
-- Don Frederick
"Every election season America is presented with a series of false choices," Texas Rep. Ron Paul writes in his new book. "And so every four years we are treated to the same tired predictable routine: two candidates with few disagreements on fundamentals pretend that they represent dramatically different philosophies of government."
If you agree with that summary, you may want to consider joining the Ron Paul Revolutionaries, several hundred thousand highly motivated political partisans, many new to politics, who despite their more than $34 million in donations over the last year have seen their 72-year-old candidate distinctly not catch fire with the broader electorate.
He took 16% of the vote in Pennsylvania's GOP primary, but Sen. John McCain got 73%, which he doesn't really need because he already has sufficient delegates to win the party's nomination in St. Paul come September. Second place or worse is a familiar spot for Paul, a former ob-gyn who'll be entering his 11th House term next January.
But no longer. At least in terms of his book, Paul is Numero Uno. Paul's Paulunteers have driven his brand-new book -- 'The Revolution: A Manifesto' -- to No. 1 on the amazon.com bestseller list. They're also packing the reader reviews with five-star evaluations, as they've been packing the comment columns of blogs like this for many months.
Paul's call to conservative, libertarian-like action is even selling better than Oprah's latest book recommendation. According to Lew Rockwell's blog, Paul's book will rocket into seventh spot on the New York Times nonfiction bestseller list later this month.
The book is designed to be both a call to arms for his would-be followers and a....
Read more Ron Paul, political loser, now best-selling author »
Anytime you hear a candidate in American politics propose a Lincoln-Douglas style debate, you know they're losing.
Hillary Clinton is making that proposal daily now. (See video below.) She knows Barack Obama is not going to accept. He's said that many times, including on national TV to Chris Wallace on 'Fox News Sunday,' where he finally appeared after two years of delays.
He's got nothing to gain by accepting -- give in and give her more TV face time with voters when, frankly, debating hasn't been his strong suit, especially the last one when he got pressed harder. And now his good friend, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, is back on the scene talking trash and raising new questions for the media.
As a debate response, Obama says he wants to spend the remaining time until May 6 meeting real voters and hearing and addressing their genuine concerns. He says he recalls from school days that....
Read more Clinton drives home her Lincoln-Douglas debate idea and Obama demurs -- again »
The Commander in Chief of Operation Chaos is in his Miami bunker, cigar firmly clenched in his teeth, radioing edicts and orders to his far-flung, obedient troops to wreak havoc on their perceived political opponents in this ongoing primary campaign.
Rush Limbaugh, he of the non Slim-Fast diet, is in his element these days. One of the loudest voices of the vast right-wing cons piracy is doing everything he can to help a Democrat named Hillary. Clinton. You read right.
Trailing Barack Obama in their party's presidential primary race, she's not about to say anything -- or discourage anyone from supporting her, even her old nemesis from the nineties, good old Rush.
It's not that Rush has seen The Liberal Light or anything like that. It's that he's determined that another Clinton would bring much larger Republican voter unity and turnout come fall than the Illinois guy.
And the longer the two surviving Democrats go at each other, the better it is for Republicans, even if the GOP standard-bearer this fall will be the notorious questionable conservative Sen. John McCain.
McCain is not a Limbaugh favorite. And to the extent that....
Read more Rush Limbaugh directs his Operation Chaos against Clinton and Obama »
TV talk show host Bill Maher, who's gotten in some past controversy for comments on politics -- something about the 9/11 hijackers being brave or not cowards -- got going the other night about the Rev. Jeremiah Wright rejoining the public discussion after weeks of quiet.
In recent days Wright's given TV interviews and several public speeches including a defiant one (with video) earlier today at the National Press Club in Washington.
Maher (see video below) says what many people, most of them supporters of Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, who refused to disown Wright in his recent race speech, are saying to themselves about the impact of the pastor's reappearance and resulting news coverage just as the Democratic Party presidential primary comes down to crunch time and the last few primaries between Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton.
-- Andrew Malcolm
WILMINGTON, N.C. -- The hot-talking Rev. Jeremiah Wright was back in the news today, speaking to a jammed National Press Club and giving no ground in the controversy over his taped sermons.
So, naturally, his most famous parishioner, Illinois Sen.  Barack Obama, was asked about it while he was campaigning in North Carolina Monday for the Tar Heel State's May 6 Democratic presidential primary. And Obama, in turn, asked voters to judge him by his own words and deeds rather than his past associations.
His controversial former spiritual mentor reemerged in the presidential campaign through a broadcast interview and a series of speeches over the weekend and today.
"I think people will understand that I am not perfect," Obama said, "and that there are going to be folks in my past like Rev. Wright that may cause them some concern."
"But that ultimately my 20 years of service and the values that I've written about and spoken about and promoted are their values and what they're concerned about," Obama added.
The Illinois senator spoke at a press conference (hastily arranged by campaign staffers after Wright's latest remarks) on the airport tarmac in Wilmington, N.C., as media traveling with him were about to board his campaign plane. Airplane engines roared in the background and a plane taking off interrupted the brief media availability, which lasted less than six minutes and permitted only three questions.
Obama sought anew to distance himself from Wright's incendiary remarks after the former pastor of Trinity United Church of Christ spoke Monday in Washington. Wright delivered a high-profile speech the night before at a NAACP dinner in Detroit and also appeared on a PBS program hosted by Bill Moyers for a lengthy interview in which he said he was hurt by the reaction to his inflammatory sermons.
"Some of the comments that Rev. Wright has made offend me, and I understand why they offend the American people," Obama said. "He does not speak for me. He does not speak for the campaign."
"Many of the statements that he's made, both that triggered this initial controversy and that he's made over the last several days, are not statements that I have heard him make previously," the senator added. "They don't represent my views."
--Mike Dorning
Mike Dorning writes for the Swamp of the Chicago Tribune's Washington bureau. Photo Credit: Trinity United Church of Christ
The struggle for the Democratic presidential nomination may come down not so much to their respective totals of delegates or popular votes but to a powerful political question in the minds of the party's superdelegates:
Would Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton be the stronger candidate in November?
"What you have to ask yourself is who you  believe would be the better nominee to go toe-to-toe against John McCain," Clinton said after beating Obama in Pennsylvania last week.
Clinton can't win the most delegates in the primaries. So she's trying to frame the choice for the party's superdelegates -- who will likely settle the nomination issue after the primaries end on June 3 -- around that question.
Obama, who would become the nominee if the superdelegates simply ratify the primary and caucus results, is playing along, though his performance over the last few weeks has done little, if anything, to advance the case for his electability.
Many wonder if there are more Rev. Jeremiah Wright issues to come out of Obama's background. And some writers are now questioning Obama's will to fight for the party's top prize.
"You can almost feel the air seeping out of the Obama phenomenon," the New York Times' Bob Herbert wrote Saturday, suggesting what was supposed to be a Democratic championship year was turning into "a potential train wreck."
And he questioned "Obama's strange reluctance to fight harder in public for the nomination."
Early voting for the May 6 primary begins this morning in North Carolina, but deciding which Democrat has the better chance of winning the presidency isn't nearly so simple as it might seem, according to independent analysts and party strategists who aren't working for either candidate. "It's more or less pick 'em, if you were a....
Read more Democrats' choice of Obama or Clinton may hinge on 'electability,' not delegates »
Watch for a little bounce in Hillary Clinton's steps these days in Indiana since her Pennsylvania primary win last Tuesday -- she got a little bounce in her national poll numbers, too.
It's all tied up again!
That daily tracking survey which the Gallup Poll has been running -- charting an uncannily close contest nationally between Clinton and Barack Obama for the hearts of Democratic voters -- shows Obama and Clinton virtually tied again. Obama at 48%, Clinton 47%.
And Clinton closed the gap in the few days since Pennsylvania's voters gave her a nearly 10% win.
The Gallup tracking from Tuesday through Thursday includes two days of interviews conducted entirely after Tuesday's Pennsylvania Democratic primary, Gallup notes. And it found something surprising: undecided voters are leaving the fence. And they're choosing to come down on the Clinton side of the party's divide.
"Support for Clinton is significantly higher in these post-primary interviews than it was just prior to her Pennsylvania victory, clearly suggesting that Clinton's win there is the catalyst for her increased national support,'' Gallup's Lydia Saad reports.
"Obama's lead dwindled steadily all week, falling from a high of 10 percentage points in interviewing conducted in the three days just prior to the Pennsylvania primary,'' Saad adds in the new results out today. "However, the percentage of Democrats supporting Obama has changed little (declining from 50% in April 19-21 polling to 48% today). Most of Clinton's increased support (from 40% to 47%) has come from previously undecided voters.
"Both Clinton and Obama have experienced surges in support for their candidacies at various times since the start of the primary season," she adds, "several of them linked with primary wins and other high profile events -- only to see the race revert back to a near tie position.''
-- Mark Silva
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