Analysis of Sarah Palin's strange move: Timeout or Flameout?

First, a few political givens:

These are different, changing times in U.S. politics.

The last three presidents each emerged from nowhere and achieved the White House on their first bid, though Bill Clinton and George W. Bush each had governor’s terms and reelections under their belts.

But what had Barack Obama ever accomplished as a freshman senator before announcing and achieving his desire for promotion? (And not finishing his first term either.)

The emergence of social media and online networking have created a whole new political environment beneath traditional media radar with untapped and unknown opportunities for unconventional politicians.

Sarah Palin is just such an unconventional politician, with surprising upsets in her past, a down-to-earth manner so different from the tired old suits you’ll see jabbering on morning TV this Sunday. And she has an astounding approval rate among her conservative base.

Most expected Palin not to run next year for reelection, like Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who now has the time and option to gear up for a 2012 presidential run.

Hardly anyone expected her to quit the governor’s office and turn it over to Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell on July 26, despite Palin’s slipped popularity at home. (Full Palin text here.)

Professionals watching a withdrawal like this conventionally and immediately wonder, what bad news don't we know about her that's about to come out? Is there some scandal, indictment or personal revelation that would cause her to step down even before its announcement? Friday, especially a pre-holiday Friday, is usually a time to announce what you don't want heard much.

But here’s why friends say she’s really doing it:

Palin is genuinely sick of, as she calls it, “the crap” that comes with national politics, especially the....

With Michael Jackson still dead, Democrats launch major caucus-primary reforms

Despite the nation's pop paralysis over the death of sad singer Michael Jackson, the Democratic National Committee's Change Commission begins its complicated work tomorrow of reforming the procedures, timing and rules of that party's convention delegate selection process.

What comes from this series of meetings, that sprouted from the long bitter struggle last year between Barack Obama and a New York senator, could radically alter the way Democrats pick their presidential candidates for many elections starting in 2012.

As The Ticket reported here in March, it's a delicate delegate process because certain states -- we'll call them Iowa and New Hampshire -- believe they have a right handed down by Thomas Jefferson to go first in the selection process, which is deemed to make them more important. Or at least help fill the state's hotels and restaurants and empty the rental car lots during a normal winter's months when inbound flights to Des Moines often have vacant seats.

At the "suggestion" of its nominee at last summer's Democratic National Convention in Denver, delegates voted to establish a commission to examine everything including improving the caucus process, which can seem even longer than Iowa winters, reducing the number of unpledged delegates and quite possibly tinkering with the calendar window for the caucuses and primaries for the 2012 presidential election cycle.

Co-chairs of the Change Commission are Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Rep. James Clyburn of South Carolina. There'll be a lot of talking starting Saturday at 9:30 Eastern in the Capitol Hilton. They'll start with history lessons and a speech by DNC Chair Tim Kaine, who isn't the governor of New Jersey despite VP Joe Biden's comments.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photo: Dick Whipple / Associated Press

Under Obama, Democrats plan a summer Western offensive

Back in early 2005 — when President Bush had a pile of political capital and Barack Obama was a rookie senator learning his way around the Hart Office Building — a group of forward-looking Democrats set their sights on the West.

John Kerry’s loss in 2004 was a disappointment, of course. But there were bright spots for them, as Democrats made significant inroads in the land of Reagan and Goldwater, gaining House and Senate seats and electing nearly three dozen state lawmakers across the region.

With an eye on 2008, party strategists set to work building on that progress, mindful of two trends running their way: the region’s growing suburbanization and the rising influence of Latino voters. Democrats placed their national convention in Denver (although that was largely symbolic) and, more significantly, granted Nevada one of the coveted early spots on its presidential calendar.

The moves, along with the dispatch of a ton of money and organizing talent, clearly paid off.

Once Obama cinched the nomination — after battling then Sen. Hillary Clinton to a draw in Nevada — he campaigned harder in the Rocky Mountain region than any Democrat in memory. His reward was....

RNC Chairman Michael Steele tries to re-rally the GOP - text

Today, after two national defeats and some recent weeks of stumbles -- some his, some others' -- Michael Steele, the new chairman of the Republican National Committee, tried to relaunch his committee presidency.

With no one else having risen to help the bruised conservative coalition get its bearings -- despite Rahm Emanuel's wishful thinking about Rush Limbaugh -- Steele told a Maryland gathering of party members that as far as he's concerned, the honeymoon with popular President Obama is over and the Grand Old Party needs to get back to the Grand part as well as the Old part of being a party.

His words will be chewed over by partisan pundits one way or the other. But his real audience was inside that banquet room and the millions of worried would-be party members watching quietly from home and work.

We have the entire text here for context. But Steele begins by retracing his personal steps through the party in tough places and times.

The Republicans appear to be in a deep hole, continued successful fundraising aside. Unpopular in polls, a minority in both houses of Congress, confronting just the opposite in the well-spoken and crafty White House, it must somehow publicly sort through and test-drive an array of potential leaders.

Most likely they'll come from the ranks of its do-something governors, which have usually produced the most successful Republican presidential candidates (along with generals and vice presidents). Four of the last six presidents have been state chief executives and a fifth was a VP. Obama is only the third sitting senator to enter the White House.

According to Steele's words here, the party will get back to its roots of fiscal responsibility, the GOP having "lost its way" under the spending of a certain recent unnamed Republican president.

It'll be an interesting 42 months. Republicans rebuilt after the 1964 Goldwater trouncing and Democrats recovered from 12 years of Reagan-Bush I. One of the enduring lessons throughout the ongoing American democratic experiment has been that a two-party system severely unbalanced in one direction for too long produces over time nothing but complacency, corruption and the certainty of an eventual crushing defeat.

And the start of yet another often awkward cleansing cycle like this one.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Remarks of Chairman Michael Steele at a Republican National Committee Lunch, May 19, 2009

Once again, welcome to Maryland. Welcome to Prince George’s County, Maryland. This is my birthplace, the place where I raised my family and the place of my first leadership position in the Republican Party. 

It was a tough job – and the pay wasn’t very good. Most of my time was spent walking neighborhoods, licking envelopes, and making phone calls for the County Republican Party.

You don’t know lonely until you announce: “Hi, I’m from the Prince George’s County Republican Party.”

But, I learned a great deal; and it served as a foundation on my journey to becoming....

President-elect Obama makes Tim Kaine DNC chairman-elect

Remember the other day when The Ticket reported that President-elect Barack Obama was going to name good pal and Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine as the new part-time chairman of the Democratic National Committee?

And the part-time-ness of the Harvard-trained lawyer would last through Kaine's last year in Richmond?

Before Kaine becomes a full-time chair or something bigger next year?

Remember that? It was right here with all the background on their connections and similarities. All that.

Well, Obama did all that today in Washington. So now it's politically official. And you knew about it days in advance because you came here. Or should have.

Kaine takes over the committee on Jan. 21, the day after Obama takes over the White House. Oh, and he inherits a $15-million campaign debt from the outgoing chair, Howard Dean, who also was a governor.

But there's a new wrinkle now: Bloomberg News points out that as chairman of the Southern Governors Assn., Kaine is intimately involved in raising funds from oil, pharmaceutical, tobacco and energy companies in exchange for access to the states' chief executives.

Obama, of course, made a big campaign deal over his opposition to lobbyists and special interests.

So how does Kaine's money-raising as governor and DNC chair jibe with Obama's stands on that?

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photo: Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine. Credit: Associated Press

Former VP nominee, GOP Rep. Jack Kemp has cancer

Former Buffalo Bills quarterback, New York Republican representative, secretary of Housing and Urban Development and vice presidential nominee Jack Kemp has cancer, his office disclosed today.

The 73-year-old Kemp, who served nine House terms, was Sen. Bob Dole's running mate on the 1996 Republican ticket forged in San Diego. Before that he was in the Cabinet of President George H.W. Bush as HUD secretary. And he had his own unsuccessful campaign for the GOP presidential nomination in 1988 against the same Bush.

A West Los Angeles native and graduate of celebrity-strewn Fairfax High School, until last year Kemp was probably the most famous politician to attend Occidental College. No longer.

Now, Barack Obama is. The president-elect is four inches taller than Kemp, but did not play quarterback, safety, punter and place kicker on the football team.

Kemp's 13-year football career involved the National Football League, the Canadian Football League and the defunct American Football League, where Kemp was an all-star for seven of the league's 10 years and played in five of its championship games.

Kemp is known fondly among Republicans for leaving Friday or Saturday meetings early to fly off to games of either of his sons, Jeff and Jimmy, both of whom also became pro quarterbacks.

Kemp's office said he would continue his consulting and charitable work but did not disclose what type of cancer he has, apparently pending further tests.

"His multitudes of friends are praying for the best," Dole told the Associated Press.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Photo: Cliff Schiappa / Associated Press

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Ticket Replay: No need to vote today, Oprah's so sure of Obama she's already got her inaugural gown

This weekend The Ticket is republishing some of our favorite items from the recent political season. This one anticipating the Jan. 20 inauguration originally appeared in this space about lunchtime on election day, Nov. 4, 2008:

Well-known Chicagoan and constant cover subject of "O" magazine Oprah Winfrey shed her nonpartisanship this presidential election cycle and not only endorsed her man Barack Obama.

She also actively campaigned for him in the primary, drawing huge crowds in Iowa (which he won), North Carolina (which he won) and New Hampshire (which he lost to another Democratic woman).

This despite a dip in her show's ratings among women who'd rather not get politics there or were disappointed that a woman who built her empire on women did not support the first serious woman candidate for president, Sen. Hillary Clinton.

But that's ancient history now.

According to our pals over at TMZ, the female big O called into Chicago radio station Power 105 this morning and told host Ed Lover that she's so sure her guy is gonna win, she's already picked out her Obama inaugural gown.

So now you don't need to vote or even watch the results tonight.

--Andrew Malcolm

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Photo credit: Associated Press

Ticket Replay: Obama's speech so moves Oprah her eyelashes fall off

This weekend The Ticket is republishing some favorite items from the past 2007-08 political season. This story originally appeared in this space on Aug. 29, 2008 immediately after Obama's stadium speech in Denver:

Daytime TV celebrity and billionaire businesswoman Oprah Winfrey, who played a crucial early primary role in raising the prominence of her fellow Chicagoan Barack Obama, was so moved by her man's Democratic acceptance speech Thursday night that she cried off her false eyelashes.

Winfrey, who had previously said she would play a small behind-the-scenes role in Obama's speech to 84,000 close friends at Invesco Field, was herself mobbed by enthusiastic fans after the address.

"I thought the speech was transcendent," she said. That's "what I thought. I thought the speech made us all feel we can do better, be better, walk taller, be higher. I just have never experienced anything like that.''

And she said "ANYTHING" as if it was ALL capitalized.

Winfrey hosted several huge rallies for Obama at the start of the primary season in Iowa and South Carolina, which he won, and New Hampshire, which he lost. As reported here in The Ticket, her daytime TV audience, while remaining the largest, did shrink after her first involvement in partisan politics.

Many women expressed strong disappointment that the woman had abandoned the first serious female candidate for the White House, Sen. Hillary Clinton, in favor of Obama.

Did Obama win the election as a result of the speech? "I think what he won was everybody wanting to go out and make sure he wins the election,'' she said.

Then came the fashion admission: "I cried my eyelashes off just when he walked out. What was the best part? Every part of it. Everything he said. I thought it was the promise of democracy fulfilled tonight.''

"You can make him win,'' an admirer shouted.

"We can make him win,'' Winfrey replied.

With the crowd closing in, Winfrey shouted: "Excuse me. This is Obama's staff, and we would love to take a picture.'' So they did.

-- Peter Nicholas

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Photo credit: Joe Raymond / Associated Press

Ticket Replay: Turning points of the Obama-McCain-Clinton campaigns

This weekend The Ticket is republishing some items from the recent 2007-08 political campaigns. This item by Don Frederick originally appeared in this space -- and in The Times' print edition -- on Nov. 9, 2008:

Regardless of what I did for a living, I would have been following this presidential campaign — obsessively.

It’s a deep-seated disorder, one that probably took root when the 1960 John Kennedy-Richard Nixon faceoff unfolded before my nine-year-old eyes.

As this similarly memorable race played out, I was allowed a vantage point made to order for such a character defect: Blogger.

It’s an evolving craft, with few set-in-stone rules. There’s a seat-of-the-pants quality to it — snap judgments and gut reactions predominate; more thoughtful analysis and sweeping perspective are best sought elsewhere.

Still, the post-now/move-on nature of blogging enables one to tap into a campaign’s daily rhythm. And it hones a sense for the unexpected twist or turn that alters its flow.

In the lengthy journey that culminated in Barack Obama’s election, three such times stand out for me — three moments when, from my bloggers perch, the campaign’s established course got rocked (to greater or lesser degrees).

The first occurred just before Halloween a year ago, when Hillary Rodham Clinton was still the accepted frontrunner in the....

Ticket Replay: Inside Obama's victory rally, the historical setting

During the next week or so The Ticket is republishing some of our favorite items from the 2007-08 political season. This one originally appeared in this space and in The Times' print edition on Nov. 11, 2008:

When those 200,000 or however-many Barack Obamians gathered in Chicago’s Grant Park late Tuesday and early Wednesday to celebrate the election of America’s first African American president, they were literally and figuratively standing on historic ground.

Democrats celebrated their black candidate’s victory in a 319-acre park named for a Republican president, Ulysses S. Grant, an Illinois native who was the final Union Army general of the many named by President Lincoln, another Illinois Republican, to crush the Confederacy and end slavery.

Grant Park was also the site of the 1968 self-immolation of Obama’s Democratic Party in violent antiwar (and witnesses testified) police riots that besmirched the city’s name for a generation.

It also shook Cook County’s long-running Democratic machine, then headed by Mayor Richard J. Daley and now not coincidentally headed by his son, Mayor Richard M. Daley, brother of William Daley, now not coincidentally a member of an Obama transition team.

Today’s Mayor Daley is political patron of both Obama and his newly-announced White House chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, a city....