Barack Obama ad targets include some shockers

Much attention, understandably, is being paid to the notes Barack Obama sounds in his first general election television ad, which starts running Friday and can be viewed here.

Its emphasis on family values, self reliance and patriotism would have made Ronald Reagan's media shop proud. And in case anyone misses the point, the spot's title -- "Country I Love" -- says it all.

What really grabs us, however, is where the ad will appear (and, in one case, where it won't).

For the most part, the 18-state list is predictable. It includes the battlegrounds, large and small, that political analysts expect to watch through election day: Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico among them.

But the list also includes a handful of reliably Republican places where Obama aides have been saying they believe he can compete, based on strength he showed among certain voting blocs during the primary season.

The states in this category are Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Carolina and Virginia.

And then there are two states -- Alaska and North Dakota -- where the airing of the Obama ad demonstrates that:

A) His campaign knows something about these GOP redoubts that the rest of us doesn't;

B) When you're riding herd over an organization that raises massive amounts of cash seemingly without breaking a sweat -- and just today announced it was breaking free of the restraints imposed by the campaign finance system, as our friends at The Swamp write about here -- you can afford to take a flier on a couple of longshots, especially when the media markets are inexpensive;

C) It's always fun, when the November election still seems a long way off, to play in a few of your rival's backyards, if for no other reason than to cause some headaches on the other side.

Probably some combination of A, B and C explains the decision to advertise in Alaska (which President Bush carried with 61% of the vote in 2004) and North Dakota (which Bush won with 63% of the vote four years ago).

Looking at all seven states where the Obama ad buy raises eyebrows, here are some of the daunting historical facts ...

Top of the Ticket, the start of Year Two

On this, the first anniversary of our Top of the Ticket blog, we are reminded of the mercurial, unpredictable nature of U.S. politics -- part of what makes what we do so fascinating.

Our goal -- one of us on the East Coast and the other on the far more important or at least less humid West Coast -- was to write about Campaign '08 virtually around the clock.

Our second-ever posting, 12 months ago today, previewed an upcoming L.A. Times/Bloomberg Poll; later in the day, we detailed the results of the nationwide survey. The findings were in line with other polls of the time.

In the Republican presidential race, which then seemed the most likely to last deep into the primary season, Rudy Giuliani was perched in first place. His lead wasn't overwhelming, but it was strong enough that he appeared certain to remain a major contender.

His liberal record on social issues loomed as an obvious liability within his party, but his tough-on-terrorism message was attracting substantial support from moderates and GOP-leaning independents.

His major headache among rivals last June was an as-yet-undeclared candidate who was riding a wave as the great conservative hope -- Fred Thompson. He ran a strong second in the poll.

Lagging far behind were John McCain and Mitt Romney, each barely with double-digit support. In our preview posting, we were especially scornful of McCain, noting sarcastically (and foolishly, as it turned out) that in the poll, he found himself "in heated competition with the 'Don't Know' category."

Meriting no mention from us was Mike Huckabee, one of several back-of-the-pack candidates barely earning any support across the country.

The Democratic race, at that point, seemed so much more cut-and-dried.

Hillary Clinton was the clear front-runner; Barack Obama was just as clearly ...

Breaking News: Hillary Clinton now thinks Karl Rove's a political genius

Until very recently -- like suddenly this afternoon -- Karl Rove was to most Democrats the Great Satan, the political mastermind of two outrageously stunning Republican presidential victories by a Texas goofball governor and, before that, the unfortunate upset ousting of a popular Democratic governor named Ann Richards, as well as the overall rejuvenation of the Lone Star state GOP in statewide offices.

In fact, there are few things politically evil that Rove has not been blamed for by Democrats, even nine months after he exited the White House to write a book, consult and opine in Newsweek, the Wall Street Journal and as an analyst for Fox News.

In recent months one of the worst things Sen. Hillary Clinton could say about her chief opponent, Sen. Barack Obama, was that he was taking moves out of the "Karl Rove playbook." Can you imagine?! "Shame on you, Barack Obama!" she said. Which, if you stop to think about it, means Obama was being successful.

So successful, in fact, that the Illinois freshman senator, ahead in delegates and popular votes, is on the brink of snatching the party's nomination and even acting like the presumptive nominee, ignoring Clinton and taking on who's-its from Arizona.

For his part, a year ago Rove was saying Clinton was the prohibitive favorite for the Democratic presidential nomination and then, later, he said she was a tremendously flawed candidate with extremely high negatives for a national candidate. Both true at the time.

How quickly things change in this season's presidential politics.

Today, Clinton began citing Rove as the ultimate expert on who was the strongest Democratic candidate in the Nov. 4 general. And we've got the exclusive maps below to prove it, all four confidential pages.

No, really!

Campaigning in Kentucky today for tomorrow's....

What if Hillary Clinton had treated Iowa like Barack Obama has Ky. and W. Va.?

Barack Obama ultimately disrespected Kentucky even more than he did West Virginia; he at least made an 11th-hour stop (albeit a brief one) in the latter state the day before its presidential primary last Tuesday.

In the walk-up to Kentucky's nomination contest this Tuesday, the closest he's come to its borders was when he was at home in Chicago on Thursday.**

Since then, he's gone off to South Dakota, Oregon (which also has a primary Tuesday, and where he was greeted by a massive crowd, at left, on Sunday) and Montana (June 3). Tuesday night will find him in Iowa -- not only the site of the caucus win that first fueled his candidacy, but a likely key swing state come November.

Obama's hands-off approach to West Virginia and Kentucky is striking to us on two counts.

One, public protestations notwithstanding, his willingness to concede them to Hillary Clinton in the Democratic race is an unmistakable signal that as he and his aides look toward the general election, neither state figures in its Electoral College calculations. (They are not alone in this assumption -- an astute overlook of the electoral map posted on Salon.com late last week by Democratic pollster Paul Maslin did not include either on the list of 17 states he views as competitive, to varying degrees, in an Obama-John McCain match-up.)

Secondly, it caused us to hark back to the very early stages of the campaign and wonder: What if Clinton had followed the controversial advice of her then-deputy campaign manager, Mike Henry, and taken a pass on a full-fledged effort to win the Jan. 3 caucuses in Iowa?

It was almost exactly a year ago -- May 21 -- that Henry (who left the campaign shortly after Campaign Manager Patti Solis Doyle was replaced early this year) wrote an in-house memo ...

Can new Chairman Hillary-style poster turn the race for Clinton?

Just in time for next week's Kentucky and Oregon Democratic primaries -- what do you want to bet they each win one? -- the campaign of Sen. Hillary Clinton has a new poster to play with.

Who could quit with this hanging around?

It's heroic, don't you think? Chairman Hillary. Like what's-his-name, the little guy with the crew cut who runs North Korea, and his dead father who had that immense goiter that everyone pretended not to see to avoid execution. Their grand portraits like this are everywhere, usually several stories tall.

We can see these everywhere. And you can read more about them in an entertaining piece by James Oliphant right here.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Ignoring McCain and Obama, Hillary Clinton slogs on in Oregon

Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton. The name sounds so familiar, doesn't it?

But unless you're in Oregon these days, you don't hear much about her. As the Illinois Democratic senator and the Arizona Republican senator go after each other in international spats as if the general election was already underway, the trailing New York senator tries to make her publicity marks with attacks on President Bush, who's far away, not really listening.

The Swamp's Jim Tankersley has today's Clinton campaign story here.

-- Andrew Malcolm 

Barack Obama confronts the all-important tattoo question

From the no-question-gets-unasked department:

While he was blowing off West Virginia (and paying the price for that on Tuesday), Barack Obama spent several recent days campaigning in Oregon (where the May 20 primary now looms as his latest must-win). As part of his foray into the state, he made time for a brief chat with Portland's alternative newspaper, the Willamette Week.

The session wrapped up with this query:

Question: "If you had a tattoo, what would it be and where would you put it?"

Obama: "Uh, I cannot imagine any circumstances in which I would get a tattoo."

The candidate then allowed that if placed under gunpoint, "then I suppose I’d have to have [my wife] Michelle’s name tattooed somewhere very discreet."

The rest of the interview, which covered more conventional ground, can be read here.

-- Don Frederick

Victorious Clinton vows to fight until 'everyone' is heard

Tuesday night, Barack Obama conceded West Virginia to Hillary Clinton in a cellphone voicemail from the runway in Cape Girardeau, Mo., to the phone of the New York senator's assistant, after an appearance aimed at the general election against the Republican dude from Arizona.

A little PR payback perhaps for the private concessions Clinton has delivered after her previous defeats to Obama that deny the victor any TV footage of the loser talking defeat?

So this morning the Clinton-Obama wrestling match continues unabated and the New Yorker gave no sign in her public remarks of relenting in her campaign, although the delegate math seems so fully stacked against her.

"I am," Clinton told the crowd of West Virginia supporters, although she was really warning a couple hundred uncommitted Democratic superdelegates not to jump yet, "more determined than ever to carry on this campaign until everyone has had their voices heard."

Let's see, "everyone" means then at least all the way through June 3 and Montana where, coincidentally, another Clinton, named Bill, was speaking outdoors at the same moment as a mountain spring rain began to fall. So, no quitting after another Clinton win next week in Kentucky? Until all the ...

A Democratic governor puts wind in John McCain's sails

John McCain got an unexpected boost in his bid to woo independent and Democratic voters this afternoon: a shared stage with Oregon Gov. Ted Kulongoski.

Kulongoski is a Democrat who has endorsed Hillary Clinton for president. So reporters were stunned to see him turn up at wind-power firm Vestas near Portland International Airport along with McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee. The event, a major speech on global warming, was designed to pitch McCain's environmental views to moderate Western voters.

The governor didn't mention McCain in his brief remarks. Instead, he introduced Jens Soby, the president of Vestas, and promoted Oregon's attempts to be "the renewable [energy] capital of America."

Soby introduced McCain, who did not miss the chance to thank Kulongoski and use his presence to push a second independent-wooing pitch: his ability to work across party lines.

McCain lauded Kulongoski -- a former Marine who attends every funeral for an Oregon serviceman or woman killed in Iraq -- for his military service. He called him "a great governor" whose leadership had lured Vestas to Oregon.

"As president of the United States," McCain said, "I will sit down with Gov. Ted Kulongoski and all of the governors of this country, whether they are Democrat or Republican, and work for the betterment of the nation."

-- Jim Tankersley

Jim Tankersley writes for the Swamp of the Chicago Tribune's Washington bureau.

Barack Obama is quite taken with Oregon ... perhaps too much so

BEND, Ore. -- Central Oregon doesn't see many presidential candidates, particularly Democrats, which perhaps explains why a rocking high school crowd this weekend let Barack Obama get away with a cardinal sin around these parts: Expressing a desire to move in.

Not so long ago, Bend was a sleepy little cowboy town that doubled as a jumping-off point for some of America's best skiing (Mt. Bachelor), rafting (the Deschutes River) and backpacking (the Cascade Range). Then the outside world discovered it. Some folks came from Portland three hours north, some from California. Most brought money, which fueled a huge wave of building and sent housing prices soaring. The newcomers and various annexations served to quadruple the town's population over two decades.

And so, when the Obama campaign and the national press descended on Bend and marveled at the crisp air, the sagebrush smells and the snow-capped mountain views, the general, only half-joking response from the local press was, yes, it's a great place. But you'd hate living here. Please, please ...

Barack Obama responds to a report about his wife

Barack Obama, wrapping up a news conference while campaigning in Bend, Ore., had a terse reply when asked about a terse report by columnist Robert Novak on the prospects of an Obama-Hillary Clinton ticket.

"Close-in supporters" of Obama's presidential campaign, Novak wrote, "are convinced he never will offer the vice presidential nomination" to Clinton because of antipathy toward her by the frontrunner's wife, Michelle Obama.

"My wife does not talk to Bob Novak on a regular basis," Obama told the reporters gathered around him, who included The Times' Robin Abcarian.

Somehow, we don't imagine the candidate does, either.

We also don't know if Sen. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts was one of Novak's "close-in" sources, but he had gone on the record about an Obama-Clinton ticket, telling Al Hunt of Bloomberg News that, "I don't think it's possible.''

Michelle Obama was not cited by Kennedy as the reason for his comment; instead, a spokesman for him later said his prediction was based on the "tenor of the campaign'' of late.

-- Don Frederick

A Barack Obama aide pays her dues

The hours can be never-ending and the pay is nothing to write home about. But perhaps it's the minor indignities that offer reminders that toiling in the trenches of a presidential campaign is something short of glamorous.

Just ask Samantha Tubman, a member of Barack Obama's media advance team.

Tubman was on the job Friday when the Democratic presidential contender made an unscheduled stop at a taqueria in the small Oregon town of Woodburn. No doubt she was pleased that Obama -- who sometimes has been mocked for passing on some of the more caloric fare candidates are expected to sample while on the trail -- dug into a hearty plate of chavindeca, a Michoacan dish of chicken and beef with tortillas.

The Times' Robin Abcarian was also on the scene and reports that as patrons and journalists crammed around the table Obama shared with some locals, a waiter holding a tostada above the crowd tripped on a highchair. The tostada went flying -- and splattered Tubman.

"Last time it was the cow," cracked Obama, referring to an encounter Tubman had in a Pennsylvania barn last month when she leaned over and a friendly bovine licked her face.

No word on whether Tubman will be able to expense her cleaning bill.

-- Don Frederick

Ticket Notice: Sunday morning talk show guests

Here it is again, our regular Saturday noon Ticket Notice listing of the Sunday morning TV talk shows, so you can choose who you're going to talk back to from your couch.

ABC's "This Week": Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.), McCain supporter and former CEO of Hewlett-Packard Carly Fiorina, and a round table with the Washington Post's Ruth Marcus, ABC News' Sam Donaldson, Cokie Roberts and George Will

Bloomberg's "Political Capital With Al Hunt": Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.)

CBS's "Face the Nation": John Edwards, McAuliffe and Politico's Jim VandeHei

CNN's "Late Edition": Reps. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez (Ret.), Iraqi Ambassador to the U.S. Samir Sumaidaie, and a round table with CNN's Ed Henry and Jessica Yellin

C-SPAN's "Newsmakers": Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.) will be interviewed by New York Times congressional reporter David Herszenhorn and Damian Paletta of the Wall Street Journal.

"Fox News Sunday": Obama strategist David Axelrod and Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson; the power player is Ben Stein.

MSNBC's "The Chris Matthews Show": Ron Allen, NBC News Clinton campaign correspondent; Katty Kay, BBC American politics correspondent; John Heilemann, political reporter, New York magazine; and Michelle Cottle, senior editor, the New Republic

MSNBC's "Tim Russert": Barbara Walters, TV journalist and author of "Audition"

NBC's "Meet the Press": Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.), Clinton chairman Terry McAuliffe, and a round table with Washingtonpost.com's Chris Cillizza, CNBC's John Harwood, NPR's Michele Norris and the Wall Street Journal's Gerald Seib

-- Andrew Malcolm

Photos: Associated Press

ALERT: This item contains secrets of an unidentified female presidential candidate named Clinton and 2 new backers who can't be ID'd but you might guess if you read this

The Ticket* has been tipped off by a secret source that we cannot reveal that an unnamed ex-diplomat and his wife, who has a name but we're not saying she used to be a CIA operative, are about to endorse a certain female Democratic candidate for president. But we can't say who.

That's because the unidentified couple, who were so secretive they drove around Washington in a convertible sports car and posed for photographs in fashion magazines, seem prepared to sue anybody who ever identifies them doing anything except the publicity they want.

So watch out, K.R.!

Not that this will give anything away but the husband was allegedly involved in tracking down some no-longer-with-us Middle Eastern dictator's non-existent but credible plans to acquire yellowcake uranium in some very hot place in Africa, which could be used in constructing nuclear weapons. (The yellowcake, not the hot place.) Although The Ticket can't really talk about that a lot right now.

So, anyway, the ex-diplomat thought that some other unidentified people in the unnamed blandly-colored office/house where the president of the United States works when his unidentified daughter is not getting married was trying, in fact, to discredit him by identifying his still unnamed wife as a secret agent, although a lot of....

Barack Obama wants to be president of these 57 United States

Ah, Oregon. The beautiful Northwest. Rain. Trees. Clouds. Rain. Friendly territory for Sen. Barack Obama, the leading contender for the Democratic Party's long-disputed presidential nomination.

So there he was in Beaverton today at the start of a two-day swing through Oregon, virtually ignoring his remaining Democratic opponent, what's-her-name from New York, as part of his new strategy to act like the actual nominee while she flails around way behind in numbers.

Naturally, this being the Northwest where everything is not ruined quite yet, his staff had Obama visit an eco-friendly company, Vernier Software & Technology, that makes products for science teachers. He could get education in there too, see?

In his prepared remarks Obama was ready to start blasting Arizona Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, to show the Illinois Democrat is moving on to the general election campaign.

But first the freshman senator had to go through all the....

Why Barack Obama fears a sudden end to Hillary Clinton's campaign

"The Democratic race now moves to West Virginia," Jay Leno noted during his monologue Thursday night on "The Tonight Show." "Today, Hillary Clinton claimed she always wanted to be a coal miner. But those dreams were dashed when she was forced to attend Wellesley and Yale."

The political focus now does, indeed, shift to the Mountaineer State for its primary there next Tuesday. And then Kentucky and Oregon and Puerto Rico down to the very end in Montana on June 3 when springtime there is just weeks away.

The Times' not-so-old political pro, Mark Z. Barabak, had an interesting conversation with another not-so-old political pro, Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist who cut his presidential political teeth in the 1980 Jimmy Carter campaign. Later he worked in the unsuccessful presidential efforts of Al Gore and John Kerry. Devine is not involved with any candidate this time around.

But the way he sees the inevitable delegate math in favor of Barack Obama and the current Democratic race ending is, counterintuitively, the worst thing that could happen to the Illinois senator in....