With Michael Jackson still dead, Democrats launch major caucus-primary reforms

Despite the nation's pop paralysis over the death of sad singer Michael Jackson, the Democratic National Committee's Change Commission begins its complicated work tomorrow of reforming the procedures, timing and rules of that party's convention delegate selection process.

What comes from this series of meetings, that sprouted from the long bitter struggle last year between Barack Obama and a NMissouri Democrat Senator Claire McCaskillew York senator, could radically alter the way Democrats pick their presidential candidates for many elections starting in 2012.

As The Ticket reported here in March, it's a delicate delegate process because certain states -- we'll call them Iowa and New Hampshire -- believe they have a right handed down by Thomas Jefferson to go first in the selection process, which is deemed to make them more important. Or at least help fill the state's hotels and restaurants and empty the rental car lots during a normal winter's months when inbound flights to Des Moines often have vacant seats.

At the "suggestion" of its nominee at last summer's Democratic National Convention in Denver, delegates voted to establish a commission to examine everything including improving the caucus process, which can seem even longer than Iowa winters, reducing the number of unpledged delegates and quite possibly tinkering with the calendar window for the caucuses and primaries for the 2012 presidential election cycle.

Co-chairs of the Change Commission are Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Rep. James Clyburn of South Carolina. There'll be a lot of talking starting Saturday at 9:30 Eastern in the Capitol Hilton. They'll start with history lessons and a speech by DNC Chair Tim Kaine, who isn't the governor of New Jersey despite VP Joe Biden's comments.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photo: Dick Whipple / Associated Press

In nifty political play, Obama ponders GOP's Gregg for Commerce

New Hampshire Republican Senator Judd Gregg speaks while Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell listens

Word out tonight from the Obama Democratic White House that the new guy is said to be so really strongly interested in bipartisanship that he's seriously thinking of adding another Republican to his Cabinet, New Hampshire GOP Sen. Judd Gregg as secretary of Commerce.

Gregg would join former Illinois Republican Rep. Ray LaHood, who's secretary of Transportation, as the GOP contingent at the left-handed president's Cabinet table, presumably at the far right end. (Defense Secretary Robert Gates worked for a Republican president, but technically he's an independent.)

Gregg would replace the departed New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who had a little problem with a lingering federal grand jury probe of pay-to-play down there.

Surprising, right? After all, Gregg's not a Latino. He's a conservative morphing into a moderate in the current political climate change. He's a Bushie. In fact, he was GWB's political point man in that crucial primary state in the 1999-2000 campaign that launched the last eight years of Republican White House rule.

Not a good political point man, as it turned out. Because Sen. John McCain waxed the Texas governor in Gregg's state on GOP primary day in 2000.

Karl Rove knew his boss was going down at breakfast that gray primary day -- by 15 points, he thought. It got worse. Nineteen points by nightfall. Very embarrassing. Karen Hughes started talking publicly about Harry Truman for some reason.

What, you might ask, besides overpriced B&B's and souvenir shops, qualifies anyone from New Hampshire to be secretary of Commerce?  Especially a Republican. Weren't they the ones who, we heard all last fall, got us into this historically terrible economic mess?

All good questions.

So here's the real play:

If Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell can't keep Gregg from leaving, that creates a Senate vacancy, right? And that means the replacement would be named by New Hampshire's governor, right? His name is John Lynch. He's a Democrat. What party candidate do you think he would nominate? Not likely a Libertarian.

Assuming comedian Al Franken's narrow Senate lead in Minnesota is not one of his bad jokes, that would give Democratic Majority Leader Leader Harry Reid a Senate majority of -- tah-dah -- 60. The magic GOP filibuster-proof majority.

Si se puede. The kind of bipartisanship Harry and Rahm can believe in.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photo credit: Alex Wong / Getty Images (Sen. Judd Gregg speaks and Sen. Mitch McConnell listens).

Ticket Replay: A double O moment -- Oprah and Obama at the same inaugural

The Ticket is republishing this weekend some of our favorite items from recent campaign months. This one looking toward the Obama inauguration on Jan. 20 originally appeared in this space on Dec. 5, 2008:

Shortly before the Nov. 4 presidential voting closed, noted Obama-backer Oprah Winfrey announced that she'd already picked out her inaugural ball gown, a sign of overconfidence that she did not have to pay for in the end.

Now that Barack Obama's inauguration is virtually certain (unless the Supreme Court's ponderings lead it to get involved), Oprah has announced she's taking her Chicago talk show to WOprah had Barack and Michelle Obama on her nationally syndicated TV show which she's taking to Washington for the inauguralashington, which is also famous for lotsa talk. (And that'll allow her to write off the gown cost as a business expense.)

She's rented the 2,300-seat Kennedy Center to do two shows there right around Jan. 20.

You may remember Oprah came out early for her fellow Chicagoan. She held a huge celebrity fundraiser for him at her Montecito house.

And she emceed giant primary rallies for him in Iowa and North Carolina, which he won, and New Hampshire, which he lost to Hillary Clinton, the first serious female presidential candidate who many former Oprah fans thought she should support. Winfrey's ratings took a hit.

We don't want to let anything out of the bag and spoil the screaming.

But wouldn't it just be a perfect television moment if, while Oprah is talking to the excited Kennedy Center audience in January at inauguration time, a certain someone who's about to become president and maybe his wife too walked out on the stage behind the show host?

Everyone would cry, except those execs watching the ratings.

--Andrew Malcolm

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Photo credit: Oprah.com

Ticket Replay: Inside the shocking Ron Paul Republican conspiracy

The Ticket is occasionally republishing some of its favorite items from the recent political season. This one originally appeared here on Nov. 30, 2007:

Maybe you've heard rumors about an explosive newspaper expose on a major political figure that would rock the political world juHeroic poster of Texas Republican Representative Ron Paulst as the presidential voting is about to begin.

We haven't either.

But we do know that today is when this newspaper blows the top off of the Ron Paul Conspiracy, that vast unorganized protest movement that has silently become one of the more interesting political phenomena of the current election season.

A Times reporter -- we'll call him James Rainey to protect his identity -- has managed to penetrate the Paul presidium.

In his story he recounts for the very first time the shockingly ordinary details of a movement of thousands of disparate, dissatisfied people, some of whom want an end to the Iraq war, an end to gun controls and the IRS, an end to laws banning marijuana and a return to the gold standard, whatever that means.

These Paulites believe the government has been hijacked by a bevy of big interests that threaten the freedoms of ordinary Americans. They're not going to take it anymore. Locally, they're even organizing a re-enactment of a brazenly defiant act, the BostonTea Party, except it'll be in Santa Monica and won't involve tea or white people dressed as Indians. And the protestors promise not to leave anything foreign floating in the water.

These committed partisans, bonded by their suspicion of authority and venal influences like the mainstream media that ignored them until they did something, have united behind a 72-year-old....

Read more Ticket Replay: Inside the shocking Ron Paul Republican conspiracy »

Ticket Replay: Something's missing from Hillary Clinton's photo album

From time to time during the next couple of weeks The Ticket is republishing some of our favorite items from the past 18 months. This item was originally published here on June 17, 2008:

For those of you who still can't quite accept the fact that Hillary Clinton is gone, finished, beaten, defeated as a Democratic presidential candidate, her campaign has just posted an online photo album.

For a walk down memory lane, go here. But FIRST, be warned: She's gonna hit you up for money on every page. There's that $2New York Senator Hillary Clinton in happier Democratic presidential campaign times0-million-plus campaign debt to pay off.

It seems like only two weeks ago today that the gritty, determined candidate who went farther than any other serious female candidate declined to concede and appeared to be ready to fight on for some time.

But then the next morning the Three Democratic Musketeers -- Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid -- launched their preplanned pre-dawn publicity offensive giving party superdelegates two whole days to make up their mind on their favorite candidate, Clinton or Barack Obama, knowing full well the latter already had it in the bag, delegate-wise.

They headed Hillary off at the pass. And after moving through her five stages of grief Clinton gave her gracious surrender/endorsement speech the following Saturday. With those secret signs of friendship buried within.

Since then -- poof! -- she's disappeared. Seems like there's a hole in our life after 17 months of Hillary Clinton all day most days, nothing. Suddenly. Nada.

Some polls seem to show her followers, namely older women, falling in line behind Obama, although our comment board sure doesn't show that.

Anyway, for a little trip down memory lane complete with photos of Hillary and Chelsea and, oops, wait, no Bill photos. Not one little snapshot to commemorate his angry outbursts. No head about to explode after another primary defeat for his spouse. Not one hubby pic in the whole book. Hmmm.

Wonder what that's about? We'll have to wait and see what the National Enquirer can make out of that.

--Andrew Malcolm

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Photo credit: Associated Press

A double O moment: Oprah and Obama together in D.C.

Shortly before the Nov. 4 presidential voting closed, noted Obama-backer Oprah Winfrey announced that she'd already picked out her inaugural ball gown, a sign of overconfidence that she did not have to pay for in the end.

Now that Barack Obama's inauguration is virtually certain (unless the Supreme Court's ponderings lead it to get involved), Oprah has announced she's taking her Chicago talk show to WOprah had Barack and Michelle Obama on her nationally syndicated TV show which she's taking to Washington for the inauguralashington, which is also famous for lotsa talk. (And that'll allow her to write off the gown cost as a business expense.)

She's rented the 2,300-seat Kennedy Center to do two shows there right around Jan. 20.

You may remember Oprah came out early for her fellow Chicagoan. She held a huge celebrity fundraiser for him at her Montecito house.

And she emceed giant primary rallies for him in Iowa and North Carolina, which he won, and New Hampshire, which he lost to Hillary Clinton, the first serious female presidential candidate who many former Oprah fans thought she should support. Winfrey's ratings took a hit.

We don't want to let anything out of the bag and spoil the screaming.

But wouldn't it just be a perfect television moment if, while Oprah is talking to the excited Kennedy Center audience in January, a certain someone who's about to become president and maybe his wife too walked out on the stage behind the show host?

Everyone would cry, except those execs watching the ratings.

--Andrew Malcolm

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Photo credit: Oprah.com

In one 11-state swath, House Republicans are a vanishing breed

Aside from John McCain, another defeated Republican garnered a fair share of attention Tuesday night -- Rep. Chris Shays of Connecticut (below), who after fending off several spirited challenges in recent elections finally got knocked off.

Since the Democratic surge in the 2006 midterm election, Shays had been the last man standing -- the sole Republican House member from any of the six New England states. (For a video on the Congressional races, click on the Read more line below.)

With his defeat, the tally for the congressional districts in his state plus Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Rhode Island now stands at Democrats: 22, Republicans: Zip.

Republican Rep. Chris Shays of Connecticut was defeated for re-election That got The Ticket wondering about the breakdown, more broadly, in the northeast (once home to multitudes of so-called Rockefeller Republicans) and parts of the mid-Atlantic region.

So we looked at what the new House delegation counts will be in five more states -- New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware and Maryland.

Assuming that a Democrat retains a slim lead in a close race in Maryland, when Congress reconvenes in January Barack Obama's party will occupy 74 House seats in this 11-state area extending from the Chesapeake Bay to the Gulf of Maine. The GOP number: 17.

Put another way, the Democrats will control 81% of the total seats, Republicans 19%.

Along with the wipeout in New England, the shrinkage of GOP House members hailing from New York is especially notable.

After the 2002 midterm, the Empire State's 29-member delegation consisted of 19 Democrats and 10 Republicans. The GOP number has been steadily reduced in every election since then. After Tuesday night, the figures are Democrats 26, Republicans 3.

Nationwide, the GOP losses in Senate and House races could have been worse. The party appears to have avoided a Democratic Senate that is filibuster-proof. And the net Republican hit in the House will be in the mid- to low 20s, not as bad as many forecast.

Still, we think the folks producing MSNBC's "First Read" political briefing nailed it today when they wrote that "the glass isn't half full for the GOP, it simply has some condensation."

-- Don Frederick

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Photo credit: Associated Press 

Read more In one 11-state swath, House Republicans are a vanishing breed »

Two huge projected wins for Barack Obama -- Pennsylvania and New Hampshire

So much, it appears, for John McCain's Pennsylvania strategy.

The instant the polls closed in the state, as well as in New Hampshire, ABC News and NBC News called them both for Barack Obama.

It should be noted that CBS News and CNN held off on Pennsylvania.

(UPDATE: CBS, as well as Fox News, have given Pennsylvania to Obama; CNN, as was the case during the primary season, is being more cautious in its projections and is holding off in making a call for the Keystone State.)

(UPDATE II: CNN just joined the pack -- Pennsylvania for Obama.)

If these calls prove correct, it seems unlikely that McCain can win any of the states -- which accounted for 252 electoral votes -- that Democrat John F. Kerry won in 2004. The Republicans had seen New Hampshire, to some degree, and Pennsylvania, to a much larger degree, as possible pickups.

Without either, every state deemed competitive across the rest of the country -- all carried by George W. Bush in 2004 -- would have to end up in McCain's column for him to win.

That's a tough task. Still, among these other states where the polls have closed -- which include Virginia, Indiana and Florida -- none have yet to be called for Obama.

-- Don Frederick

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Political junkies have a new place to get their fix

Perhaps you are curious about the millions that the Republicans are spending on Norm Coleman, or the sums that the Democrats are spending on Al Franken?

Or maybe you need to know how much Democrats are throwing at Carol Porter Shea up in New Hampshire.

Well, here’s the link for you.

The Campaign Finance Institute, which does some of the most thoughtful work on campaign money, is boiling down on a daily basis the amounts that the Democratic and Republican parties are spending on independent expenditures in congressional, senatorial and presidential races.

-- Dan Morain

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Ted Stevens' conviction the crowning blow in bad year for GOP senators

More than a year ago, The Ticket noted how everything seemed to be coming up roses for the Democrats as the landscape took shape for 2008 Senate races. Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska

Now, with the election a week away, the party caught still another break with the conviction this afternoon of the longest-serving Republican in the Senate -- Ted Stevens of Alaska -- on all seven counts of failing to report an array of gifts.

Most obviously, the jury's verdict is a huge blow to Stevens' bid for a seventh full Senate term.

Is it a fatal one?

We'd pause before writing off Stevens -- even with a felony conviction weighing him down -- because of the  status he long enjoyed among his constituents. And in a statement he issued, Stevens, right, made clear he'll depict himself as the target of unscrupulous and unethical federal prosecutors. "This verdict is the result of the unconscionable manner in which the Justice Department lawyers conducted this trial."

But Anne Hays of the Anchorage-based Hays Research Group showed no hesitation to make a political prediction as word spread in her state of Stevens' conviction.

"I think it sinks him," she told us as word spread of Stevens' conviction. His race against Democrat Mark Begich "had tightened up," she noted. "But I think this will break it out again" in Begich's favor.

More broadly, the verdict is yet another stain on a GOP brand ...

Read more Ted Stevens' conviction the crowning blow in bad year for GOP senators »




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Our Bloggers

Andrew MalcolmAndrew Malcolm's immigrant parents repeatedly stressed the importance of active participation in a democracy. Early lessons included learning the alphabetical list of states by watching televised roll calls of national political conventions. That childhood exposure led to a lifelong fascination with politics, including 40-plus years of covering them and a brief stint practicing them as press secretary to Laura Bush in 1999-2000. A veteran foreign and national correspondent, Malcolm served on the Times Editorial Board and was a Pulitzer finalist in 2004. He is the author of 10 nonfiction books and father of four.

Johanna NeumanJohanna Neuman is a veteran Washington correspondent for both The Los Angeles Times and USA Today, having covered presidents and politics as far back as Ronald Reagan. A former president of the White House Correspondents Assn., she authored a book on media and foreign policy, “Lights, Camera, Wars.” Most recently she was co-author of the Countdown to Crawford blog here at The Times.
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