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On this, the first anniversary of our Top of the Ticket blog, we are reminded of the mercurial, unpredictable nature of U.S. politics -- part of what makes what we do so fascinating.
Our goal -- one of us on the East Coast and the other on the far more important or at least less humid West Coast -- was to write about Campaign '08 virtually around the clock.
Our second-ever posting, 12 months ago today, previewed an upcoming L.A. Times/Bloomberg Poll; later in the day, we detailed the results of the nationwide survey. The findings were in line with other polls of the time.
In the Republican presidential race, which then seemed the most likely to last deep into the primary season, Rudy Giuliani was perched in first place. His lead wasn't overwhelming, but it was strong enough that he appeared certain to remain a major contender.
His liberal record on social issues loomed as an obvious liability within his party, but his tough-on-terrorism message was attracting substantial support from moderates and GOP-leaning independents.
His major headache among rivals last June was an as-yet-undeclared candidate who was riding a wave as the great conservative hope -- Fred Thompson. He ran a strong second in the poll.
Lagging far behind were John McCain and Mitt Romney, each barely with double-digit support. In our preview posting, we were especially scornful of McCain, noting sarcastically (and foolishly, as it turned out) that in the poll, he found himself "in heated competition with the 'Don't Know' category."
Meriting no mention from us was Mike Huckabee, one of several back-of-the-pack candidates barely earning any support across the country.
The Democratic race, at that point, seemed so much more cut-and-dried.
Hillary Clinton was the clear front-runner; Barack Obama was just as clearly ...
Read more Top of the Ticket, the start of Year Two »
While the world of politics waits around for Sen. Barack Obama to finally get the message and give up his hopeless chase of the Democratic nomination for president because he lost yet another heartland state to Hillary Clinton, Texas Rep. Ron Paul continues to creep up on the once-presumptive Republican nominee, S en. John McCain.
Overlooked in all the hoopla about the big Portland, Ore., music rally that Obama piggybacked onto and his winning the Forever Cloudy State in Tuesday's voting was the fact that the 72-year-old libertarian-like Republican rebel snagged two of Oregon's 27 GOP delegates.
Sure McCain got the other 25. But depending on whose count you go by, this gives Paul a total of either 21 or 28 delegates to the September Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn. Maybe even a few more.
That puts Paul only about 1,245 delegates behind McCain, who weeks ago captured the necessary 1,191 delegates to guarantee him the nomination.
And as The Ticket reported Wednesday morning, Paul is careful with the dollars his loyal followers have donated. Since early 2007, these dedicated bands of imaginative fund-raisers have donated nearly $35 million and Paul still has almost $5 million of that left. Recently, he's been advertising a lot on radio. And unlike most candidates, he lives with no political debt.
So by September it may come down to mano a mano between two 72-year-olds to see who goes up against the 60-year-old New Yorker or the Illinois kid who'll be 60 in about 13 years.
--Andrew Malcolm
If anybody thought the Ron Paul Revolution had expired, they need to rethink that one.
Clearly, the 72-year-old libertarian-minded Texas representative was not going to win the Republican Party's nomination this year with his 12, 20 or 42 delegates, whomever you believe. Sen. John McCain already has enough to win the GOP nod in St. Paul in September. So Paul has taken his well-funded campaign and gone rather underground to the local level where his loyal Paulunteers are organizin g and taking over numerous county party operations in several states.
Quietly, beneath the political radar of the Republican Party establishment and mainstream media, they're laboring at the local level. Last month Paul forces read the party rule book in Missouri and elected about a third of the delegates to the state convention that will pick the delegates to the national convention.
Last weekend in Nevada they drove through a rules change in the state party convention that halted the approval of pre-approved slates of convention delegates as a means to eventually substitute their own supporters to travel to St. Paul and boost Paul's delegate totals for platform and other struggles this fall.
Using sophisticated communications techniques on the Nevada convention floor in Reno, Paul supporters transmitted mass text messaging to maneuver and direct their troops. When Paul appeared to speak, the ovation was thunderous.
At other times they shouted down the convention chair, Sen. Bob Beers. Taken by surprise the convention organizers and the McCain camp, which for instance had no supply of campaign signs to compete with the blizzard of Paul signs, eventually adjourned the convention in chaos without electing any delegates.
The excuse was the expiration of the convention's contract with the host casino. No new convention date was announced. The Ron Paul crews move on to their next target.
--Andrew Malcolm
Photo Credit: RonPaul.com
Clearly spooked by a few of Rep. Ron Paul's second-place finishes kind of close behind him, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has dropped out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination.
Romney was so flustered in his dropout speech to the Conservative Political Action Committee in Washington Thursday, that he didn't even mention Ron Paul.
That's not unusual, actually. Hardly any other candidate and virtually no major media, especially CNN, has mentioned his name for the last year, so terrified are they of his stare and his libertarian-like views, including downsizing the federal government, bringing American troops home and abolishing the Federal Reserve.
Sometimes it seems almost like a media conspiracy to ignore the former ob-gyn. Except for not one....
Read more Ron Paul forces Mitt Romney out of the GOP race »
This could be a big weekend for Rep. Ron Paul's longshot but determined campaign to acquire some Republican delegates in the race for his party's presidential nomination.
The 72-year-old, 10-term Texas congressman has been largely dissed and dismissed by party politicians and the media in this lengthening primary race. But his loyal followers have been more than generous in recent weeks, donating nearly $20 million in the last three months of 2007 to make him the most successful GOP fundraiser then and the only one to increase his donations every quarter last year.
According to Paul's website, supporters have given an additional $5 million-plus since Jan. 1.
On Friday, Republicans started three days of caucusing in Maine, a largely ...
Read more Ron Paul's big chance for a modest splash »
Now that the South Carolina Democratic primary is only four days away, Sen. Hillary Clinton has high-tailed it out of that state for a few days. Say what?
Some see the strategy as a hedge against a loss there Saturday to Sen. Barack Obama, who's shown increasing strength in the African-American community, which makes up about half of that state's Democratic voters. After losing in New Hampshire and Nevada, South Carolina has become something of a must-win for Obama, as he eyes future votes in Georgia and Alabama, also with large black populations.
Clinton spokesmen deny they're conceding anything in South Carolina. In fact, they will have several surrogates in-state including....
Read more As crucial S.C. vote nears, Hillary Clinton goes elsewhere »
LAS VEGAS -- Amid all the confusion of the Nevada Democratic caucuses, from people leaving in frustration to Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama each claiming separate victories, an interesting pattern emerged. And building on what happened in the "non-primary" that Democrats conducted in Michigan, it is going to make next weekend's South Carolina primary "verrrrry interesting," as Arte Johnson used to say.
Nevada's caucus was the first full Democratic presidential nominating contest to include a significant number of black voters, and Obama won overwhelmingly here in predominately black Precincts 4028 and 4461, reflecting what national polls show has been a significant shift in support by black voters from Clinton to Obama.
Obama was similarly strong in in last week’s Michigan primary. "Uncommitted" –- seen largely as votes for Obama and John Edwards, whose names were not on the ballot –- took 68% of the African American vote, with Clinton getting 30%, according to exit polls. But those results came in a race in which only half the candidates were on the ballot and no one was awarded any delegates, dampening turnout.
On Saturday, the votes mattered. Obama’s success among black voters wasn’t enough to give him the win. About 8% of Nevada residents are African American, compared with nearly 13% nationally. But Obama’s growing support among African Americans could shape ...
Read more It doesn't necessarily stay in Vegas »
LAS VEGAS -- Not sure what today's results from the Nevada caucuses and South Carolina Republican primary mean? Well, that's why they make the Sunday morning shows (and no, there is not a movement in Congress to rename it "Spinday").
On CBS' "Face The Nation," you get John Edwards and, in a lovely moment of irony, David Axelrod, who was one of Edwards top advisors four years ago but is working for Barack Obama this time around, along with Politico's Roger Simon to keep them honest.
"Fox News Sunday" has Mitt Romney, and "ABC This Week" has Rudy Giuliani. "CNN Late Edition" has what might be the most interesting panel of the day with South Carolina Democratic Rep. James Clyburn and Michigan Democratic Rep. Carolyn Kilpatrick, chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, who will probably be looking ahead to next week's South Carolina Democratic primary on the heels of the Nevada caucuses today and the party's Michigan non-primary last week. And Clyburn is part of a double-header -- he's also on C-SPAN'S "Newsmakers" show at 7 a.m. and 3 p.m. Pacific time.
And if that's not enough spin, we offer you this:
-- Scott Martelle
Boy, oh, boy! Hidden behind all the hoopla, headlines and the Nevada caucus victories of Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton is one little-noticed but stunning political development and number:
Ron Paul, the one-time Libertarian candidate and 10-term Republican congressman from Texas, was in second place. That's right, Second Place. The 72-year-old ob-gyn who's always on the end of the line at GOP debates or barred altogether, was running ahead of John McCain, Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, in fact, ahead of....
Read more Breaking News: A Ron Paul surge in Nevada »
Michelle Obama has clearly become very comfortable as co-campaigner with her husband, Barack. This morning, according to The Times' Seema Mehta, she confidently bounded onto the gym stage at a morning rally at the University of Nevada's Reno campus.
"Your Love is Lifting Me Higher" was booming out, and the crowd of way more than 1,000 potential caucus-goers roared.
"Hey! Wow! Look at all these folks," Obama said. "Where did you come from? It is so nice to be back in Nevada! We are so happy to be here!" But, suddenly,....
Read more Michelle Obama makes a Chicahgah kind of mistake »
Would-be-president Mitt Romney starts every morning with a bowl of granola with oats, honey, sesame seeds and almonds. Every other morning he jogs three miles. "And then at the end of the day," Romney tells Jay Leno on tonight's "Tonight Show" on NBC, "just to really relax, I take off a dark suit like this and put on a light one."
(Laughter)
Fresh off his Michigan GOP primary victory and on the eve of the South Carolina Republican primary and the Nevada caucuses, Romney was making fun of his own stiff image. The other day on the stump Romney asked his wife Ann to muss up his famously-perfect hair. But she wouldn't.
As usual, Leno asks a wide range of topical questions. Romney said his confrontation with an AP reporter Thursday was "a normal thing. These guys have a responsibility to be adversarial, and, you know, we don't treat them real well. The guys that follow us in the presidential race come in a whole group. We put them ...
Read more Mitt Romney, a Republican who actually likes granola! »
LAS VEGAS -- Oh, irony of ironies.
As we all know by now, Michigan and Florida got themselves in a boatload of trouble with the national Democratic and Republican parties by trying to jump to near the head of the line of states that get to vote first for the presidential nominees.
It cost the Democrats in Michigan and Florida their convention delegates -- and, maybe more importantly, the presence of candidates campaigning. The Republicans in those states lost half their delegates. In both party's cases, they lost a lot of face.
But now, especially on the Republican side, it's beginning to look as though those two states may have done themselves even more of a disservice. Nobody could have foreseen this, but if there is no clear winner coming out of the massive -- and de facto -- national primary on Feb. 5, when more than 20 states vote, the states that hold their nominating contest after that could be in play as kingmakers.
See you in Montana, New Mexico (Republicans only) and South Dakota on June 3.
-- Scott Martelle
LAS VEGAS -- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid -- known hereabouts as the senior senator -- was one of the key players behind the Democratic National Committee's approval for Nevada to hold Saturday's caucuses.
Reid has been scrupulously neutral in the nomination race, which has boiled down to two current Senate colleagues -- Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama -- and one former colleague -- John Edwards. And Reid has maintained that the decision by his son, Rory Reid, to sign on as Clinton's Nevada campaign manager was not a family commitment.
So what is Reid going to do Saturday, when the caucuses begin at 11 a.m. (which is about when Vegas wakes up)? From the state Democratic party release: "Reid's precinct caucus will take place at the Community Center in his hometown of Searchlight. Because his position as Senate Majority Leader requires Reid to work with all senators to deliver results for Nevada, he will caucus as 'uncommitted,' rather than declaring support for a specific candidate."
Yep, still uncommitted. He should have moved to Michigan.
-- Scott Martelle
LAS VEGAS -- As our colleague and Las Vegas Bureau chief Ashley Powers points out, you're nobody in Vegas until you get used in a promotion.
The Las Vegas Motor Speedway says it will refund the purchase price for the first customers each day with presidential surnames who buy passes to its Neon Garage zone for th e Nascar weekend coming at at the end of February.
But like debate sponsors, they have a cutoff point. If your last name is Clinton, Edwards, Obama, Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain, Romney or Thompson, you're eligible. If you're a Kucinich or a Paul, forget about it.
But at least Dennis Kucinich got a mention in the release. Ron Paul's name was nowhere to be found.
"We gave strong consideration to anyone named 0Kucinich," said Chris Powell, the track's general manager. "But the poor showing of Dennis Kucinich in both Iowa and New Hampshire simply made that impossible."
The Neon Garage is billed as an entertainment center at the track, giving fans access to drivers and racing teams and the occasional celebrity. The promotion ends with the caucuses on Saturday
Oh, and the candidates themselves can get the refund just for showing up. Couldn't hurt to do it -- especially for those trying to campaign in South Carolina too.
-- Scott Martelle
The important Nevada caucuses are Saturday, so many of the presidential candidates are working the crowds wherever they can find them and putting in long days -- and evenings.
And so is The Times' Seema Mehta.
Last night, she reports, Barack Obama was speaking in a large common room at Rancho High School in Las Vegas. The place was so packed with hundreds of people that they ran out of chairs. Many had to stand. Obama was going through his standard stump speech when he slipped in a humorous little confession about his recent MSNBC debate performance against Hillary Clinton and John Edwards.
"I was laughing when we had the debate a couple days ago," Obama said. "You remember: People were asked, 'What's your biggest weakness?' So I thought, because I'm like an ordinary person, I thought that they meant what's your biggest weakness?
"So I said: 'Well, you know, I don't handle papers that well. My desk is a mess. I need somebody to help me file stuff all the time.' So the other two, they say, 'My biggest weakness is I'm just too passionate about helping poor people.' 'I am just too impatient to bring about change in America.'
"If I had gone last, I would have known what the game was. I could have said: 'Well, you know I like to help old ladies across the street. Sometimes they don't want to be helped. It's terrible.' Folks, they don't tell you what they mean."
That comes with experience, no doubt.
-- Andrew Malcolm
LAS VEGAS -- When the Nevada Democratic Party, with the national party's blessing, decided to move its caucuses to Jan. 19, voters in places like Elko were all atwitter. The reasoning was that as the main population center in northeastern Nevada, with 16,700 people (the security line at LAX might have more people in it), the major candidates would have to visit.
Someone, finally, would pay attention to the "rurals," as they're called here, which is pretty much everywhere across the deserts and mountains outside Las Vegas and Reno-Carson City. And a few politicians did come. But it wasn't the political lovefest they had anticipated.
Until now.
Beginning with a John Edwards rally at 8:30 tonight, four of the major presidential contenders will be holding rallies in Elko over a span of about 18 hours. On Friday, residents might as well take the whole day off work and watch the spectacle. Mitt Romney -- the only Republican spending any time in Nevada -- starts the day with a 7:40 a.m. rally at Adobe Middle School. (Will they need a hall pass?) Hillary Rodham Clinton has a rally at 1 p.m. at the Elko Indian Colony Gymnasium, and 90 minutes later Barack and Michelle Obama rally supporters and the curious at Elko High School.
And in a mark of how upside the whole process has become, Elko County Republicans outnumber Democrats 8,668 to 3,878, or more than 2 to 1. But Elkonans, if that's what they're called, will see three Dems and one Republican.
Which makes you wonder how the turnout will skew come Saturday.
-- Scott Martelle
LAS VEGAS -- This feels sort of like those Wall Street guys who sell stocks short, then make a mint when the company -- or the economy -- tumbles. The folks over at Time magazine are wondering whether economic uncertainty, and fears of a recession, might salvage Mitt Romney's presidential bid.
In the first two major nominating contests, the Michigan native and former Massachusetts governor who made a mint as a venture capitalist kept winning the silver, as he put it, coming in second to Mike Huckabee in Iowa and to John McCain in New Hampshire.
Then came Michigan, where eight years of hemorrhaging jobs have led to a 7.4% unemployment rate, and Romney got his first significant gold. While many ascribed that to his roots in Michigan -- his father was a popular governor there in the 1960s -- his campaign in the state focused on the economy. Not all economists were impressed with his message, but enough Michigan Republicans were.
As economic fears spread -- tumbling shares on Wall Street both reflect and exacerbate that -- the economy has seized even more of the political stage for both the Democrats and the Republicans. In Michigan, exit polls showed that among Republicans concerned about the economy, Romney was the clear victor.
That won't help Romney in South Carolina, where evangelicals hold the key, but it could help him here in Nevada -- and likely explains why he's campaigning here among the gamblers rather than down South among the palmettos. (Word is the Las Vegas Review-Journal will release a poll tomorrow showing Romney with a big lead in Nevada.)
With Feb. 5 looming, the national polls in flux and all campaigns subject to the winds of narrative -- has McCain peaked? Did Giuliani's Feb. 5 strategy leave him out of the race too long? -- economic fears and a CEO's resume could help Romney.
But then, a turnaround on Wall Street and more suicide bombers in Iraq over the next two weeks could change everything.
-- Scott Martelle
It's actually a standard political gimmick in most every traveling presidential campaign to allow the candidate to show a sense of humor. He/she comes on the airplane intercom with the too-familiar flight attendant briefing for the press corps seated in the rear.
But this time Sen. Hillary Clinton put her own twist on the "announcement" as her campaign plane left Las Vegas for Reno recently.
"Welcome aboard the maiden flight of Hill Force One," she said. "My name is Hillary and I am so pleased to have most of you on board. FAA regulations prohibit the use of any cellphones, Blackberries or wireless devices that may be used to transmit a negative story about me."
"In the event of an unexpected drop in poll numbers, this plane will be diverted to New Hampshire... Once we've reached cruising altitude, we'll be offering in-flight entertainment: my stump speech.... we are grateful that you chose the plane with the most experienced crew."
The plane landed safely anyway.
-- Andrew Malcolm
A judge in Nevada has just ordered MSNBC to include Rep. Dennis Kucinich in Tuesday's Democratic Party presidential debate in Las Vegas or he will cancel the forum.
Senior Clark County District Court Judge Charles Thompson vowed to issue an injunction halting the nationally televised debate if MSNBC failed to comply. Kucinich had filed a lawsuit seeking to be included just this morning.
(UPDATE: Late Monday, according to the Associated Press, NBC indicated that if Judge Thompson officially signed his order Tuesday morning, it would appeal that decision to the Nevada Supreme Court, seeking to keep Kucinich out of the evening's debate.)
The judge ruled Monday it was a matter of fairness and Nevada voters would benefit from hearing from more than just Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama. Kucinich had been invited to participate in the 6 p.m. Pacific debate Tuesday, but that invitation was rescinded last week following the ....
Read more Breaking News: Judge says MSNBC must include Kucinich »
Rep. Dennis Kucinich has just sued NBC-TV in Las Vegas over his exclusion from the MSNBC debate among top Demcoratic candidates in Nevada tomorrow.
According to the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Kucinich filed his lawsuit moments ago seeking a temporary restraining order allowing him to participate in the nationally-televised debate among Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama. A copy of the lawsuit is available here.
As reported here over the weekend, Kucinich was originally informed that he was invited. But that invitation was later rescinded, prompting an outraged press release about giant corporate powers controlling voters' access to all candidates.
Kucinich's lawsuit claims, “Kucinich is a credible and serious candidate in Nevada, where he is actively and vigorously campaigning and has statewide headquarters in Las Vegas.” The suit could threaten tomorrow evening's debate.
It comes just days before the hotly-contested Nevada caucuses that has drawn all the Democratic candidates, seeking votes and endorsements. A District Court hearing was scheduled for this afternoon.
Kucinich's exclusion from Tuesday's debate is the ....
Read more Breaking News: Kucinich sues NBC over Nevada debate »
Rep. Dennis Kucinich, the perennial Democratic presidential candidate who just as perennially loses, is fast becoming a perennial debate absentee too.
The former Cleveland mayor, who has been spending the better part of a year now campaigning everywhere but his home district, was left out of the Des Moines Register's debate last month because he did not have a separate campaign office in the state and didn't meet polling minimums. Then last weekend he was left out of the ABC-TV Democratic debate in New Hampshire, much as Reps. Duncan Hunter and Ron Paul were excluded from the Fox News Channel Republican debate the next evening. So Paul went before his own nationwide audience on NBC's "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno" and wowed that host.
Kucinich thought he'd made the cut for this coming week's MSNBC Democratic ....
Read more Dear Dennis, You re hereby uninvited to the debate »
Over the last week we've listened to her. And in the process we found her voice, not to mention Hillary Clinton's new ad that centers on those carefully crafted lines of humility from her victory speech in New Hampshire.
Clinton is releasing a new ad in the morning in Nevada and South Carolina. You can hear it here, but you've already heard it all many times already. Her talking during that joyous speech laid over lots of shots of a smiling female candidate with lots of real people. No more of this all-alone wonky woman wrapping Christmas presents of new government programs to give to the common citizens of America.
Of course, the Republican National Committee had something ...
Read more A more accessible Clinton stops for tacos »
US Airways flight 1159 from Manchester, N.H., to D.C. this morning truly was carrying a special cargo -- a hefty hunk of the suddenly ebullient Hillary Clinton brain trust.
Those operating on little, if any, sleep to make the 6 a.m. (EST) departure time included campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe, ad guru Mandy Grunwald, longtime advisor Harold Ickes, longtime aide Ann Lewis and -- practically beaming as he made his way down the aisle in coach -- Mark Penn. That would be the chief strategist who, if New Hampshire's Democratic presidential primary had turned out the way polls predicted, some thought might be out of a job.
The primary, of course, delivered a wonderful surprise for the Clintonites, and Penn's visage matched the mood on board. It was too early for much chatter, but there were wide smiles aplenty. Lewis was heard to remark that the tough wins are the most satisfying.
McAuliffe, expansive under most circumstances, was especially so as he chatted with reporters after deplaning. He also seemed ...
Read more Clinton's brain trust decamps, joyfully »
On the night that he came in second in the New Hampshire primary, Barack Obama came in first with the Nevada chapter of the large Service Employees International Union. He won that important union's official endorsement a few minutes ago.
The influential union's 17,500 health care and county worker members will come in very handy for Nevada's Jan. 19 caucuses. The union's choice will come as a serious disappointment for both Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, who both coveted it too. And the timing late tonight is likely no accident.
Union president Vicky Hedderman said just before midnight that the union's decision came during a late-night conference call of the executive board Tuesday, the Associated Press reported. But the timing of such a rapid news release without elaborate media attendance comes as a convenient public relations counterpunch to Clinton's narrow New Hampshire election win Tuesday night.
It also gets the SEIU endorsement in ahead of another anticipated Obama endorsement Wednesday by Nevada's Culinary Workers Union, Local 226, which has 60,000 members.
Hedderman said Obama is a candidate "who could take the campaign all the way to November."
Obama has previously received the endorsement of SEIU state councils and locals in five states, including Illinois. Edwards has won the endorsement of SEIU's California State Council, which could make its 600,000 members available to help him.
Under SEIU union rules, the Nevada endorsement allows SEIU locals in other states to lend volunteers and resources to its Nevada counterpart on behalf of Obama.
Ten days left.
-- Andrew Malcolm
DES MOINES -- A new Rasmussen poll shows that Rudy Giuliani's once-comfortable lead in Florida has gone, well, south on him. And he can once again blame Mike Huckabee.
The poll shows that Giuliani, whose 27% in November was enough to give him an 8-point lead over Mitt Romney, has fallen to 19% support. Huckabee now stands at 27% and Romney has gained some ground to 23%. But most significant is that the poll found only half of the Florida voters polled are certain of their vote.
That means the fast-shifting campaign for the Republican nomination is getting even more uncertain. And the scenario indicated by the current polls spells trouble for Giuliani.
A Huckabee win here in Iowa on Jan. 3 and a Romney win in New Hampshire on Jan. 8 would send the campaign to Michigan on Jan. 15, where another recent Rasmussen poll showed a three-way tie among Huckabee, Giuliani and Romney, then on to Nevada on Jan. 19, where the most recent polls have Romney and Giuliani statistically tied.
On the same day, South Carolina Republicans vote and Huckabee is leading there. Nevada, like Iowa, is a caucus state and no one knows what turnout will be like there -- especially since the candidates have been essentially ignoring the state. But Romney's Mormonism could help him, given that the key to winning caucuses is being organized enough to get your people out.
So it's very conceivable that Giuliani could go into Florida 0-for-5, or as much as 2-for-5 if he ekes out Nevada and Michigan. If he loses in Florida as well, or just squeezes through, Giuliani could go into Feb. 5 -- the make-or-break day -- surrounded by question marks. And who knows what that will do to his leads in places like California, Illinois and Pennsylvania -- where the big delegate counts are divvied up and the nomination most likely won.
So next time Giuliani campaigns in Florida, he might want to stop in at the amusement parks around Orlando, where the roller-coaster rides are likely smoother than the one he's on now.
-- Scott Martelle
The narrative of the Republican nomination battle has been a little disjointed. Would the social conservatives ever embrace Rudy Giuliani? Will John McCain board that Straight Talk Express one more time? Anyone want seconds on the potatoes and gravy? ... Oh, sorry, getting ahead of ourselves.
Actually, in a lot of ways the Republican campaign, even though it hasn't generated the kind of base excitement as the Democratic campaign, could in the end prove to be more interesting. For the Democrats, the choice seems to be coming down to old versus new with a few folks hopping up and down yelling, "Hey, we're running too!"
For the Republicans, depending on how the nomination plays out, we could see a significant shift in control within the party. The power that the social conservatives have wielded with such success over the last few election cycles could have run its course, and how the party votes will be the tea leaves for analysts to pore over.
The upshot: Giuliani would not likely have had much success running against George Bush in 2000. That he may be the candidate to beat now speaks volumes about the shift within the party -- and the changed political environment, post 9/11. It also underscores the failure, so far, of a socially conservative party to demonstrate wide appeal. Fred Thompson seemed to have that potential, but his strength remains rooted in the region he comes from -- the South.
Giuliani remains the national poll leader. Mitt Romney holds the lead in Iowa and New Hampshire, has surged to a tie in South Carolina and, while trailing in Nevada, can't be counted out there, given the relatively high number of Mormons in the state. McCain hopes that, as in 2000, New Hampshire voters will flock to his banner. Mike Huckabee has been moving up in the polls, particularly in Iowa, and he seems to be gaining momentum within the Christian Right. Ron Paul has galvanized libertarians and some economic conservatives; the question is whether he can attract sufficient support to affect the nomination.
So there's a lot of uncertainty there, which is what ultimately could make the GOP nomination battle the more interesting of the two. As you head to the dessert table for more pie, keep this in mind: Romney can win Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, giving the pre-Feb. 5 media narrative a "Giuliani stumbles" track going into Super Duper Tuesday. But with Giuliani enjoying strong backing in delegate-heavy states such as California, Illinois, New York and New Jersey, he would seem in good position to bounce back.
Unless, of course, a new theme develops -- that the rank-and-file Republicans, many of whom view another Clinton administration as a sign of the apocalypse, decide someone else would be in better position to beat her.
Which, of course, is why the candidates keep slogging away. It also spotlights one of the delicious ironies of American political life: Most voters are cynical and doubt anyone can make much of a difference while most politicians are optimists and believe they can make a difference.
It's a wonder we speak the same language.
-- Scott Martelle
Well, as we all head into the annual Thanksgiving nap -- maybe it has less to do with turkey tryptophan than football matchups like this -- we thought it would be useful to boil down the recent shifts in the Democratic landscape.
The two most significant shifts: Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama talking smack (we're keeping the football theme going here) about each other, which lets John Edwards off the aggressor hook a bit and maybe revert to the nice-guy persona that marked his 2004 campaign. That strategy only landed him the No. 2 spot on the losing ticket, so maybe a toughening up was due -- but is snarkiness presidential?
How the verbal knock-around will play out is anyone's guess, since there's a fine line between pointing out differences with your opponents and coming off as a negative campaigner (Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean went negative in Iowa in 2004, contributing to their weak showing and early exits).
In this year's race, the most recent poll in Iowa contained good news for Obama, though one survey does not necessarily a trend make. If it is indicative, with only six weeks to go, this is getting to be the time where momentum begins to be good.
In New Hampshire, Clinton has been losing some support, though still has a lot of ground to give. And she has comfortable leads in Nevada and South Carolina, as well.
So the challenge for Clinton is to keep Obama far enough back that a tight finish or even a loss in Iowa will, in hindsight, seem like an aberration as she racks up wins in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, then heads into Feb 5. with the big states -- California, New York and Illinois among them -- up for grabs.
Shifting to a pool metaphor, she might not run the table, but it's looking pretty good for her. Which is why you're seeing sharper attacks by her rivals. As Clinton said in the Las Vegas debate, they're not going after her because she's a woman, they're going after her because she's ahead.
Now wake up -- there's only 32 shopping days left till Christmas.
-- Scott Martelle
A couple of intriguing--maybe even disturbing--postscripts to last night's Democratic debate. It wasn't so much a debate as a chaotic uncoordinated interview of a gang of candidates in front of a Las Vegas crowd accustomed to prize fights and cheering for their favorite (Hillary Clinton) and booing the bad guy (John Edwards, when he criticized their favorite).
If the point was to elicit illumination, the transcript shows more interruptions than anything else. The low point--and it's a very revealing low point--came right at the end when Maria Luisa Parra-Sandoval, a UNLV student, asked Clinton if she preferred diamonds or pearls. Talk about a softball question. It's not exactly "boxers or briefs," but it's close.
True to form, Clinton straddled the answer, saying she likes them both. We sure don't want to offend the pearl crowd, do we? But what the heck does that have to do with picking a president? The answer, of course, is absolutely nothing.
And the truth came out today when CNN, which is widely believed among Clinton opponents and others to favor the New York senator's candidacy, admitted that a producer allegedly seeking to end the "debate" on a light note gave the question to the student. (Does giving a question to a student to ask Hillary Clinton ring a bell for anyone?)
As an embarrassed Luisa explained on her MySpace today, everybody was told to submit days ago a list of questions, including light-hearted ones, for approval by CNN. Because of her interest and previous research into Nevada's Yucca Mountain as a potential repository for nuclear waste, she wanted to ask Clinton about that. (Marc Ambinder provides the actual question Luisa wanted to ask here.)
But at the last second a producer told Luisa that Yucca had already been discussed and instructed her to ask her pearls-diamonds question.
Any candidate, especially a female front-runner, would rather provide a non-answer to a jewelry question than discuss how to safely store nuclear waste in a desert state that doesn't see its future built around becoming a nuclear dump.
Now, Luisa has been subjected to criticism from friends and strangers about asking a dumb question. On her MySpace, she wrote: "Every question from the audience was pre-planned and censored. That's...
Read more Two stories behind the alleged Clinton debate success »
LAS VEGAS -- Well, when we doused the lights last night, the general sense here was that Hillary Clinton -- wearing her "asbestos" pantsuit -- had managed to right her slightly listing ship during Thursday's Democratic debate at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas. And after a short night's sleep, we don't see much reason to change that early assessment.
In what may have been the night's signature theme, John Edwards got in the first harsh criticism of Clinton after moderator Wolf Blitzer asked him about his pre-debate slap that she was engaged in the "politics of parsing." Responded Edwards: "The most important issue is she says she will bring change to Washington, while she continues to defend a system that does not work, that is broken, that is rigged and is corrupt; corrupted against the interest of most Americans and corrupted for a very small, very powerful, very well-financed group."
You can't really call it a trap, because Clinton didn't ask the question. But she obviously was ready for it: "I respect all of my colleagues on this stage. And, you know, we're Democrats and we're trying to nominate the very best person we can to win. And I don't mind taking hits on my record on issues, but when somebody starts throwing mud, at least we can hope that it's both accurate and not right out of the Republican playbook.... [F]or him to be throwing this mud and making these charges I think really detracts from what we're trying to do here tonight. We need to put forth a positive agenda for America telling people what we're going to do when we get the chance to go back to the White House."
Bill Richardson picked up the theme and that set the undercurrent for the debate. Even Edwards came back and said none of the harshness was personal, simply the politics of pointing out the differences among the candidates. To be sure, there was some bickering and a few more rocks thrown, but none of them were the kind of pace-shifting moments that could make or break a campaign. And how could they, after the chief rock-thrower essentially told voters not to take them seriously?
In broad terms, Clinton showed that the last debate was the aberration, and that she's resumed her firm grasp of the reins on that front-running horse. And no, she hasn't been targeted by the others because she's a woman, a theme that emerged after the last debate. "They're attacking me because I'm ahead," Clinton said.
Overall, Clinton did what she needed to do. Barack Obama again gave a rather lackluster performance, marked by a few sharp moments. Edwards, as we pointed out, self-negated and did nothing to help himself climb out of his swing spot as either being the bottom of the top tier or the top of the bottom tier. Chris Dodd, Joe Biden and Bill Richardson came off as amiable, capable candidates but, again, no fires were lit. Dennis Kucinich, in his best moment, didn't know when to stop, capping a compelling soliloquy with the kind of comment that energizes the progressives but alienates the core of the party: "The president of the United States is called upon to make the right decision at the right time. And you've seen here tonight people who voted for the war, voted to fund the war, now they have a different position. People voted for the Patriot Act. Now they have a different position. People voted for China trade. Now they have a different position. People who voted for Yucca Mountain. Now they had a different position. Just imagine what it will be like to have a president of the United States who's right the first time. Just imagine.... [W]hat are you going to do about this president, and for that matter the vice president, because they're out of control, and Congress isn't doing anything. It's called impeachment, and you don't wait. You do it now. You don't wait."
But in what may become the debate's biggest echo, Obama booted the question that everyone in the English-speaking world knew was coming -- whether he supported issuing driver's licenses to undocumented immigrants. That's the question that Clinton fumbled in the last debate, and that Obama's campaign had been using as a bludgeon ever since, accusing Clinton of being incapable of delivering a straight answer to a simple question. Obama's answer Thursday? Well, you navigate these currents: "When I was a state senator in Illinois, I voted to require that illegal aliens get trained, get a license, get insurance to protect public safety. That was my intention. And -- but I have to make sure that people understand. The problem we have here is not driver's licenses. Undocumented workers do not come here to drive. They don't go -- they're not coming here to go to the In-N-Out Burger. That's not the reason they're here. They're here to work. And so instead of being distracting by what has now become a wedge issue, let's focus on actually solving the problem that this administration, the Bush administration, had done nothing about it."
Blitzer followed by asking Obama whether he supported issuing the licenses, and Obama said: "I am not proposing that that's what we do." When Blitzer then said, "This is the kind of question that is sort of available for a yes or no answer," the crowd laughed -- clearly getting that Obama had lost his way home. Asked moments later for a "yes or no" answer, Obama said, "Yes." Now, how hard was that?
Of course, not that many of you watched the debate (you can read it here while pretending to work, but be warned, this morning it was still an early transcript and incomplete). One of the realities of presidential campaigns is that what gets said in the media today has more of an effect on perceptions of what happened than the event itself. That's why debate organizers open up those little "spin rooms" outside the debate halls to let the candidates or their surrogates try to persuade the media that they didn't just see what they just saw.
So feel free to add your two cents' worth in the comments section -- consider it your personal spin room -- and we'll figure out if we all saw the same debate. But since this is Vegas, we'll wager that'll be a no.
-- Scott Martelle
Delaware's Sen. Joe Biden had perhaps the best line of the night a few minutes ago during the Democratic debate on CNN.
All of the candidates on stage were asked if they would commit right now to support the nominee of the Democratic Party next year? Almost all of the candidates said they would, including John Edwards, who seemed to fudge on that point once recently. "Is that a planted question?" he asked.
They went down the line of candidates -- yes, yes, yes. Dennis Kucinich conditioned his support on the nominee renouncing war as an instrument of national policy. The last candidate was Biden. Would he support the candidate, whomever that was?
"Hell, no," he said, "I wouldn't support any of these guys."
He got a huge round of laughter and applause, as he added, yes, of course, he would.
The Times' story by Mark Z. Barabak and Scott Martelle is available here. The complete debate transcript is available here.
--Andrew Malcolm
LAS VEGAS -- With the Democratic presidential contenders playing debate roulette here at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas today, we thought we'd check in on the Republican candidates to see what they're doing outside the spotlight.
Mitt Romney is in Burbank this afternoon for one of his "Ask Mitt Anything" forums, and cycles his way through Vegas tomorrow for the Las Vegas Chamber of Commerce Economic Roundtable. He plans to stick around Saturday for another "Ask Mitt" forum and to rally volunteers.
Rudy Giuliani campaigns in Florida today and speaks before the Federalist Society 2007 Lawyers Convention in Washington, D.C., on Saturday, while letting his first TV ad do the campaigning for him in New Hampshire, where John McCain begins four days of retail stops and speeches tomorrow after raising money in California and Colorado today.
Tom Tancredo is also in New Hampshire today and tomorrow. The rest of the Republicans -- Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul and Fred Thompson -- apparently are off the trail today, although with this picture anchoring his website, you gotta figure Huckabee is here in Vegas somewhere, at least in spirit.
-- Scott Martelle
LAS VEGAS -- We're sitting in a basement practice gym at the Cox Pavilion, home to the UNLV Runnin' Rebels, waiting for the interesting stuff to start -- the Democratic debate. In the interim, what we have are eight very long rows of folding tables, divided into red, white and blue sections (we're in the white seats -- no chance of being inadvertently cast as Red or Blue), a bunch of TV sets and the incessant chatter of political writers talking politics.
Thank goodness for headphones and Dave Alvin. With time on our hands, we thought we'd check and see what the different candidates are generating for news releases leading up to the debate, which is one of the more anticipated of the long series of encounters among the candidates. Why? Because there's a sense that after the last debate, we might actually see something more than dueling talking points.
Hillary Clinton's chief strategist, Mark Penn, sent out a "state of the race" memo spinning the "leadership card" -- a reference to the last post-debate wrangling over the "gender card" and whether she was targeted as the field's only woman.
Barack Obama and John Edwards issued appeals for cash, with Obama running a contest in which some lucky supporter gets to campaign with him in Iowa and Edwards pushing to raise $500,000 by the end of the month, to be matched by federal funds, to help finance the campaign in -- Iowa.
As for today's debate? Both campaigns mentioned it literally as a postscript. Talk about trying to reduce expectations (and the rest of the pack reduced expectations even further -- no pre-debate spin at all).
-- Scott Martelle
LAS VEGAS -- Ron Paul and Fred Thompson have seen strong gains in a recent Zogby poll here, but they still have a long way to go. And the poll has some bad news for Rudy Giuliani -- an erosion of support from 37% to 28% since the last Zogby poll here in April, though he still leads Mitt Romney by 8 percentage points.
Thompson's numbers climbed from 7% to 13%, and Paul saw a gain from 1% to 7%. Interestingly, Paul has a bit of a gender gap here -- 12% support among Republican men and 2% among Republican women.
For the Democrats -- who will debate Thursday night at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas -- the poll found little has changed, which is interesting because the Democrats have been spending more time campaigning here than the Republicans.
Hillary Clinton moved up two percentage points to 37% from April; Barack Obama moved down two percentage points to 19%. John Edwards was unchanged at 15%. Bill Richardson, the New Mexico governor, isn't getting much neighborly affection -- he moved up 1 percentage point to 6%.
The polls found the undecideds at 16% for Republicans and 17% for Democrats, which is high -- but Nevadans apparently are more sure of themselves than folks in New Hampshire.
-- Scott Martelle
Bill Richardson, obviously with an eye on the polls, apparently is shifting more staff from Nevada and South Carolina to Iowa, where the caucuses are less than two months away. The polls are viewable over at Real Clear Politics, and when you digest them you realize the New Mexico governor's problem is that he hasn't caught on with many Democratic voters despite an engaging series of ads hyping his executive-branch experience.
So two narratives emerge here. First, Richardson is putting nearly all his chips on Iowa hoping to catapult himself from second tier to a respectable first-tier showing. The most recent Iowa Zogby poll showed him with 9% support, compared with 28% for Hillary Clinton, 25% for Barack Obama and 21% for John Edwards. In poll-speak, that's a virtual three-way tie for first. And Richardson isn't one of them.
If Richardson doesn't crack through and edge out one of the top three in Iowa, his chances of doing much in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina get much longer -- he's in the single digits in all three places now, and barely registers at all in South Carolina.
So Iowa might not be do or die for Richardson, but it's pretty close. And remember, he doesn't have to win, just exceed expectations. By a lot. So how do you do that? You start moving the warm bodies in -- joining Edwards and Chris Dodd in moving the troops, like a game of Risk.
But is it too little, too late? Iowa is not the kind of place where you can drop in and make a splash. The caucuses respond best to solid local organization, which takes time, staff and cash. And although there are a fair number of undecided voters -- 12% in the Zogby poll -- there aren't enough to matter for Richardson.
Which brings us to the second narrative. There's less than two months before the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, but the candidates lose most of Thanksgiving week and pretty much all of Christmas week and the days leading up to New Year's Day, because if they aren't dressed like elves the first week or wearing college football uniforms the second, then no one is going to care.
So it's an eight-week calendar with more than two weeks already blacked out. Add in holiday shopping as a voter distraction and suddenly the election calendar bears a sticker sort of like the one you see in your car's side mirror: Dates in the future may be a lot closer than you think.
-- Scott Martelle
The Republican National Committee made good on its earlier threats and voted today to seat only half of the delegates to be selected in the New Hampshire, Florida, South Carolina, Michigan and Wyoming primaries -- all states likely to vote before Feb. 5, the date the RNC has deemed the start of the Republican nomination calendar.
We say "likely" because New Hampshire hasn't set its date yet, though Jan. 8 seems to be the latest they'd go. Iowa and Nevada escaped the wrath of the GOP because their delegate selections are made in caucuses, not primaries, so score two on a technicality. (The Democratic National Committee is facing its own calendar insurgency.)
Still, party leaders in the formally scolded states -- this is the political version of a timeout for a misbehaving child -- are gambling that by the time the convention rolls around, all will be forgiven. And that's mainly because the last thing either major party wants to do is alienate their bases in states like Michigan and Florida, with relatively high numbers of those all-crucial electoral votes for the general election.
-- Scott Martelle
Part of the strategy of being a front-runner is to look like a front-runner, and apparently Mitt Romney has begun trying on that particular suit in Iowa, where he leads in polls despite finishing back in the pack in national surveys.
In a swing through the state late last week, the former Massachusetts governor generally ignored Rudy Giuliani (who has on occasion donned the front-runner mantle for himself), Fred Thompson, John McCain and the other rivals for the Republican presidential nomination, and instead focused on a target on the other side of the aisle: Hillary Clinton.
Of course, the immediate benefit of beating up on Clinton is that it appeals to the Republican base. Beating up on fellow Republicans, on the other hand, can backfire.
Romney has made no secret of his early-state strategy. He's doing well in Iowa and New Hampshire, and come mid-January, if he can boast of taking those two early plums, then the momentum could build through Nevada. He trails there now, but a relatively high Mormon population could help on caucus day. He's already tracking surprisingly high in South Carolina, making a race of it despite the influence there of evangelical Christians who tend to be suspicious of Romney's Mormonism. He's also doing well in Michigan, where he was born and where his father was once governor. Good showings in some or all of those states could mitigate a likely drubbing in Florida (too many retired New Yorkers).
Under that scenario, Romney could go into Feb. 5, when 20 or so states hold nominating contests, riding a wave. And that will be a true test of strategies. Can an early-state focus work when there are so many states up for grabs Feb. 5? Can locally focused campaigns change the national narrative? And is there a brainwash, emotional breakdown or unrevealed skeleton still out there as a wild card?
Great spectator sport, no?
-- Scott Martelle
It's beginning to look a lot less like Christmas. The Manchester Union-Leader reports that New Hampshire is now leaning toward an early January primary date, probably Jan. 8, due in part to changes in Iowa and a possible decision by Michigan Democrats to stick with their Jan. 15 primary (along with the Republicans) instead of an earlier caucus -- even though half the candidates aren't on the ballot.
So, for those of you marking your calendars at home -- and we do hope you're using pencil, lightly -- it looks like Jan. 3 for the Iowa caucuses, Jan. 8 for the New Hampshire primary, Jan. 19 for Nevada and South Carolina Republicans, with that state's Democrats possibly moving to the same date from Jan. 26. Then there are the interlopers: Wyoming Republicans on Jan. 5, Michigan on Jan. 15 and Florida on Jan. 29.
Amid all that flux, what seems more and more certain is that despite efforts by the national parties to make the early states more inclusive and broadly representative of the nation, the opening narrative of the nomination voting will still likely be set by Iowa and New Hampshire.
But Nevada's relevance could move up a notch or two if Iowa and New Hampshire have different winners, casting Nevada as something of an early tie-breaker.
What hangs in the balance is the analysts' consensus of who is waxing and waning going into Feb. 5, when the sheer number of states up for grabs -- California, Illinois and New York among them -- means the candidates will likely have their images and messages cast by the free media coverage, since few can afford to mount ad campaigns in all 20 or so states making decisions that day.
And you think predicting the winner of "Dancing With the Stars" is hard. Remember, four years ago at this time speculation was building that Howard Dean could be the next president of the United States.
And we all know how that turned out.
-- Scott Martelle
Our national political correspondent Mark Z. Barabak reports in from the road this morning that Iowa's Democrats will likely be joining Iowa Republicans in holding their caucuses on Jan. 3.
State Democratic leaders are to hold a conference call at 8 p.m. local time Sunday, during which state party chair Scott Brennan will recommend the caucus be moved from the current Jan. 14 date, according to Carrie Giddings, the party's communications director.
That means Iowans can look forward to a flood of both Christmas and campaign ads running up to the holiday season -- the earliest start to presidential voting in American history.
This could also signal the start of a settling in of the primary and caucus calendar, which has been in flux since Florida and Michigan decided to flout national party rule and schedule votes ahead of the ordained Feb. 5 start date. The parties had given permission to Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada to vote earlier in an effort to broaden the demographics of early voting states.
But Michigan and Florida -- and Wyoming Republicans -- decided they wanted a piece of the national spotlight, too, and broke ranks. The unexpected result: Half of the Democratic candidates pulled their names from the Michigan ballot, and the national parties have told the state parties they will not seat delegates elected in an unsanctioned primary. Wyoming -- well, everybody seems to be ignoring the vote there.
Of course, the big question still looming is when will New Hampshire go to the polls? It is expected to set its primary date for no later than Jan. 8, though Secretary of State William M. Gardner has said he could push the voting ahead to December -- in about two months -- to preserve New Hampshire's tradition and to build a little breathing space between the primaries and caucuses.
Ah, the holiday traditions -- gifts, over-eating, college football and now politics.
-- Scott Martelle
Well, the newer, tougher-talking Barack Obama came out smooth and friendly tonight on "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno." No campaign attacks, no flagrant charges to jar sleepy Americans preparing for bed. So you can hit the sack early now and check the TiVo come morning.
Chatting with the jut-jawed Leno has become a presidential campaign requirement. He's already had John McCain on and Bill Richardson and Elizabeth and John Edwards and Fred Thompson (twice, but then he's from an NBC show, "Law & Order").
Jay is not Tim Russert, a Sunday morning D.C.-in-your-face kind of host for people who didn't go to church. Jay was gentle with his guest tonight, offering up soft pitches like, "I have to ask you about your family. Dick Cheney, you and he are eighth cousins."
"Not kissing cousins," replied Obama. (Audience laughter.) He said you always hope your relatives are great kings or queens.
Jay wanted to know if Obama's popularity had dropped since yesterday, when the world learned he was related to a Republican. "The truth is," the senator replied, "I am OK with it. You know, now I don't want to be invited to the family hunting party." (More laughter.) Gee, do you think that one was scripted too?
Jay asked about the Bush administration, which frustrates Obama because it's "all about military force, has not done the diplomatic work." Obama said he had found Iowa voters well-informed; they even...
Read more Obama chats with Leno, leaves the tough line till last »
For a while there, there was a measurable erosion of competition in Nevada leading up to the scheduled Jan. 19 caucuses. Chris Dodd shifted | |
