"The Predator" proves a political spawning ground

When the cast of "The Predator" gathered in the jungles of Mexico to make the sci-fi/action/horror flick during the spring of 1986, someone must have been offering a correspondence course in civics during down time.

So far, two of the film's actors have gone on to win governorships -- leading man Arnold Schwarzenegger, in California, and supporting performer Jesse Ventura, in Minnesota.

This year, two could by running for the U.S. Senate.

One is Ventura, who has been suggesting he may try to resurrect his political career by offering himself as an alternative in a race that already features Republican incumbent Norm Coleman and Democratic challenger Al Franken (himself an entertainment-industry refugee).

The other is Sonny Landham (who, though lesser known than Ventura, shared with him a doomed fate in "The Predator").

In Kentucky, Landham recently announced that he would start collecting petition signatures to qualify as the Libertarian Party candidate against Republican Mitch McConnell (the reigning Senate minority leader).

Landham, who also appeared in "48 Hours" (starring Eddie Murphy and Nick Nolte), should qualify for the ballot. His chances of actually winning, of course, are about as good as were his prospects when he went up against that cinematic alien more than 20 years ago.

Still, at least one political observer in Kentucky believes Landham could have an impact on McConnell's reelection bid, as you can read about here (and also learn more about the actor's colorful past).

-- Don Frederick

Photo credits: 20th Century Fox (movie poster); Associated Press (Landham)

Top of the Ticket, the start of Year Two

On this, the first anniversary of our Top of the Ticket blog, we are reminded of the mercurial, unpredictable nature of U.S. politics -- part of what makes what we do so fascinating.

Our goal -- one of us on the East Coast and the other on the far more important or at least less humid West Coast -- was to write about Campaign '08 virtually around the clock.

Our second-ever posting, 12 months ago today, previewed an upcoming L.A. Times/Bloomberg Poll; later in the day, we detailed the results of the nationwide survey. The findings were in line with other polls of the time.

In the Republican presidential race, which then seemed the most likely to last deep into the primary season, Rudy Giuliani was perched in first place. His lead wasn't overwhelming, but it was strong enough that he appeared certain to remain a major contender.

His liberal record on social issues loomed as an obvious liability within his party, but his tough-on-terrorism message was attracting substantial support from moderates and GOP-leaning independents.

His major headache among rivals last June was an as-yet-undeclared candidate who was riding a wave as the great conservative hope -- Fred Thompson. He ran a strong second in the poll.

Lagging far behind were John McCain and Mitt Romney, each barely with double-digit support. In our preview posting, we were especially scornful of McCain, noting sarcastically (and foolishly, as it turned out) that in the poll, he found himself "in heated competition with the 'Don't Know' category."

Meriting no mention from us was Mike Huckabee, one of several back-of-the-pack candidates barely earning any support across the country.

The Democratic race, at that point, seemed so much more cut-and-dried.

Hillary Clinton was the clear front-runner; Barack Obama was just as clearly ...

Today! McCain, Obama, Clinton final political news-election results via Ticket Twitter

You know, today is the last day of primaries. (Yes, we know AP says Barack Obama has clinched the Democratic nomination by delegates, but there are still real votes to be voted.)

Just like spring, election day comes kinda late to Montana and South Dakota. And they really are the final ones. No, really.

And then almost immediately -- well, five months from tomorrow -- comes the general election on Nov. 4. So you better hurry and sign up for instant results via Ticket Twitter for tonight and beyond.

Had you already signed up for Twitter, you would have known about Obama clinching through a special news tweet. 

And, of course, by signing up you also get automatic notification of every new Ticket item as it's posted.

Look how excited someone's new grandson named Charlie is about the prospect of automatically getting election results Twittered to his Fisher play cellphone.

And he could have received news of Hillary Clinton's walloping of Barack Obama in Kentucky a whole lot quicker had he been a Ticket Twitter subscriber -- and born then. But he was otherwise occupied elsewhere. (Yes, that's his personal halo hanging nearby.)

Also, Charlie doesn't want to miss one moment of Rep. Ron Paul's surge now that he's within almost 1,300 delegates of catching Sen. John McCain for the Republican nomination in St. Paul. (Honest, that's where the GOP meets come September.)

For existing Twitterers, go to http://twitter.com/latimestot

Click Follow. Enroll there for alerts on every new Ticket item AND our instant, breaking-news election results whenever and wherever anyone is voting on the U.S. presidency. And it's all free, of course.

For about-to-be Twitter folks, think of it as text message headlines to any mobile device. Go here to enroll (also free). Click on Join, not surprisingly.

And join.

Once again, on this final primary election day and all the ordinary campaign days in between until the Bitter End when everyone has made their Thanksgiving airline reservations and winced at the new prices, we're going to have all the political news and election result updates for our Twitter subscribers. (Actually, to be honest, we'll be here well beyond Nov. 4 chronicling formation of a new presidential administration and the political fallout in the losing party.)

With notice of each regular Ticket posting.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Photo Credit: Grandpa 

Hillary Clinton counting votes, looking forward

Hillary Clinton's campaign just sent this e-mail to supporters, spinning off the results from the Puerto Rico primary.  It is missing the sense of urgency that such e-mails had after earlier primary wins -- and losses -- in which the campaign used the fresh results to spur on supporters.

"Another big win!  Today in Puerto Rico, the voters spoke with a powerful voice to say that this race is not over yet.  And thanks to your support, we're celebrating another great victory.

"When all the votes in Puerto Rico are counted, our popular vote lead will be even bigger. More than 17 million people have cast their ballots for our campaign, more votes than any candidate has received in the history of the Democratic Party. Now there can be no doubt: The people have spoken and you have chosen your candidate.  We are winning the popular vote.

"Every time the pundits count us out -- every time they declare the race over -- you, the voters, send a clear message that you have another idea.  And you and I just keep winning races together.

"Now there are just two contests left, the final primaries in South Dakota and Montana.  I know I can rely on your support for these last two races, just as I have throughout the campaign.

"Thank you so much for everything."

Then it was hand-signed "Hillary" over "Hillary Rodham Clinton," with a button to click for contributions. Click past the jump to see the letter she sent out after winning Kentucky.

-- Scott Martelle

One last Kentucky tidbit

No one was surprised by Hillary Clinton's absolute dominance in the hills, hollows and other rural stretches of Kentucky in the state's Democratic presidential primary Tuesday. But as she rolled up an overall victory margin of 35 percentage points over Barack Obama in the state, one local result stands out.

Magoffin County -- which according to the Lexington Herald-Leader has been identified by the Census Bureau as "the least diverse place in the nation" -- delivered Clinton her largest share of the vote among Kentucky's 120 counties.

She racked up 93% of the vote in Magoffin (named for a former governor and located in the state's eastern half). In raw votes, the totals were Clinton, 2,714; Obama, 146.

How homogenous is the county? According to the 2000 census, 99.29% of its population of 13,332 was white.

[UPDATE: For information on the primary result in the U.S. county with the largest concentration of black residents, go here.]

-- Don Frederick

Polls look ahead to fall showdown between Barack Obama and John McCain

Yes, there are still states -- and a territory -- to vote, Democratic delegates to select, superdelegates to decide and conventions to be held, but it's hard not to peek ahead to the fall matchup. You can make your own presumptions about whether the Dems will go with Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, but for the sake of argument, we'll presume it's Obama.

And polls, fickle though they may be, show that the general election could be just as tight as the Democratic primaries in crucial swing states where Obama's race and perceived class work against him (witness Kentucky). The tallies maintained at Real Clear Politics give a broader sense of the challenge for Obama and for John McCain.

You can go over there and play, but the overview is the latest state poll aggregates give the current advantage (some of these are within the margin of error) to McCain in Ohio, Florida and Missouri and the advantage to Obama in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (though McCain led in the most recent poll) and Iowa with Michigan essentially a dead heat. 

Now take those poll numbers over to an interactive electoral college map and the advantage is: Nobody. Under that scenario, with Michigan a virtual tie and polls too erratic in New Mexico to count, Obama and McCain would be separated by four electoral votes and both would need Michigan to put them over the 270 threshold.

Let the fun begin. Oh, wait -- it already has.

-- Scott Martelle

* Money shocker! Hillary Clinton's campaign debt soars

(*UPDATE: Due to a mathematical error, Hillary Clinton's loans to herself were added twice in the calculation of this item. Her total debts are about $21 million, not $31 million. A corrected item covering the first five paragraphs of this one has been published here.)

No wonder Sen. Hillary Clinton was so late filing her required campaign financial reports Tuesday night. Her political team didn't want the shocking news in it to overshadow her lopsided thumping of Sen. Barack Obama in Kentucky.

But here's the morning after, pay-up time. Clinton's campaign debt has now soared to nearly $31 million, according to numbers crunched early this morning by The Times' campaign finance guru, Dan Morain.

She added another $9.5 million in unpaid bills to vendors this last month alone, pushing her total debt to vendors and herself to the new astronomical figure, about a 50% debt increase in one month.

According to a campaign release put out Tuesday evening as election returns revealed her big win in Kentucky and loss in Oregon, Clinton raised "approximately $22 million" from other people in April. The release also touted that $10 million had poured in within 48 hours of another lopsided Clinton victory over Obama, that one in Pennsylvania, and said it was the second best fund-raising month of her entire campaign.

But the number collected is actually closer to $21 million and the release also neglected to mention that she spent $28.9 million, nearly $8 million more than she took in. She used personal loans to make up part of the difference. She also delayed payments to consultants. Including the $9.5 million in unpaid bills from April, she owes consultants and other vendors $19.5 million. Not to mention the total $11.4 million she has loaned herself.

For other campaign finance figures, including surprising financial success by the Republican Party aided by the president, continue reading below the video.

The likely Democratic nominee Obama continues to vastly out-raise Sen. John McCain, but the presumed Republican nominee is closing the money gap with the significant help of his party, according to new campaign finance reports filed Tuesday.

McCain disclosed he had $21.7 million in the bank at the end of April, compared with ...

Obama wins Oregon primary, tells Iowans change is coming, change is...

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama got mangled in Kentucky tonight by Sen. Hillary Clinton (see her video at bottom) by a better than two-to-one margin. But he basically ignored that setback and returned to an enthusiastic crowd at the scene of his initial primary season victory tonight and talked to Iowans over and over and over about change.

In fact, even before learning of his Oregon victory, standing before the state capitol in Des Moines, the freshman senator said the word change 14 times. That provides a pretty obvious clue to the major theme he envisions in the already building general election campaign against presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain of Arizona.

Obama congratulated Clinton on her overwhelming Kentucky victory and praised her as a pioneer,

perhaps an early indication of reaching out to Clinton supporters, many of whom still cling to hopes of a mathematical miracle in her struggle for convention delegates. Obama said, "Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has changed the America my daughters and your daughters will come of age."

The crowd gave a half-hearted cheer.

He made the obligatory attack on McCain, saying, "The lobbyists who rule George Bush's Washington are now running Sen. McCain's campaign."

"McCain," Obama added, "is not change."

"Our journey may be long," Obama said, his voice rising. "Our work may be great. But we know in our hearts we're ready for change."

"Iowa," he added to growing cheers, "change is coming to America. Change is coming."

In case, you didn't get it, Obama thinks change is coming. And he is it.

--Andrew Malcolm

Hillary Clinton, speaking in Kentucky, has superdelegates in mind

Hillary Clinton has indulged a taste for history of late. And that was on display tonight, as she claimed her overpowering victory in the Kentucky primary (while ignoring an expected defeat looming across the country in Oregon).

Campaigning in West Virginia earlier this month, on her way to a huge primary win last Tuesday, she stressed that since 1916, no Democrat had won the White House without carrying the Mountain State.

This evening, in Louisville, she put forth a vaguer proposition. It has often been said, she asserted, that "as goes Kentucky, so goes the nation."

Frankly, that was a new one on us. But if it's so, that's bad news for Barack Obama. As we noted earlier, he would seem to have little chance to being competitive in Kentucky as the Democratic presidential nominee.

Kentucky has had a winning track record in recent decades -- the last time the Bluegrass State picked a loser in a White House contest was in 1960, when it backed Richard Nixon instead of John Kennedy.

A handful of other states can make comparable claims as bellwethers. Still, Clinton pointedly noted that her husband won Kentucky in both of his successful presidential races. And that helped frame the message in a victory speech that was directed more at Democratic superdelegates than the cheering throng in front of her.

After she spoke kind and gracious words about Sen. Ted Kennedy in the wake of the revelation that he suffers from a malignant brain tumor, after she touched upon her commitment to universal healthcare and ending the war in Iraq, after she made her now ritualistic pitch for cash by reciting her website, she got to what she and her aides see as the nub of the matter.

When the primary season wraps up on June 3 ...

Exit polls spell out Barack Obama's Kentucky problem

Barack Obama, assuming that two consecutive primary thrashings don't cause the pause among Democratic superdelegates Hillary Clinton is hoping for, will get within shouting distance of Kentucky later this year as the party's presidential nominee. The key swing states of Ohio and Missouri border it. So do Virginia and Indiana, which Obama might be able to put in play.

But actually setting foot inside Kentucky would seem a fairly pointless gesture by Obama, unless he's got Clinton in tow as his vice presidential pick. Not only did she follow up her rout of Obama in last Tuesday's primary in nearby West Virginia with an overwhelming win in the Bluegrass State, but exit poll data showed her voters feel none too kindly toward him.

Those figures found that only a third of Clinton supporters would vote for Obama in November, while about 40% would cast their ballot for Republican John McCain and the rest -- roughly a quarter -- would stay home.

Some of those Clinton Democrats who now say they would reject Obama no doubt would reconsider once the heat of their battle cooled. Still, a vast majority of the Clintonites would have to change their minds to give Obama a chance in Kentucky (which President Bush carried with 60% of the vote four years ago) and that seems unlikely to happen.

The exit polls found Obama's backers to be much more forgiving -- seven in 10 said they would be willing to vote for Clinton in November, with the rest roughly split between those who would line up with McCain or simply ignore the presidential race.

-- Don Frederick

In Kentucky, a look at the white vote Barack Obama won't get

With the subject of sexism much in the news so far this week (see here), the Chicago Tribune has a story today out of Munfordville, Ky., that casts the spotlight on racism. Here's its lead:

Mike Rife is white, a semiretired factory worker with a high school education and a 2-foot-square sign on his lawn that makes friends and neighbors flip him the finger as they drive by.

The sign reads: "Obama for President."

"I think I almost know what it feels like to be a black guy," said Rife, his voice gravelly and defiant. "I take heat every day. I got an Obama sticker on my car, and I catch hell for it."

The rest can be read here.

Last week, the Washington Post cast a slightly wider net, writing about examples of racism encountered by Barack Obama's campaign workers in Indiana and Pennsylvania. The story, which can be read here, noted that campaign officials "say such incidents are isolated, that the experience of most volunteers and staffers has been overwhelmingly positive." 

-- Don Frederick

Breaking News: Hillary Clinton now thinks Karl Rove's a political genius

Until very recently -- like suddenly this afternoon -- Karl Rove was to most Democrats the Great Satan, the political mastermind of two outrageously stunning Republican presidential victories by a Texas goofball governor and, before that, the unfortunate upset ousting of a popular Democratic governor named Ann Richards, as well as the overall rejuvenation of the Lone Star state GOP in statewide offices.

In fact, there are few things politically evil that Rove has not been blamed for by Democrats, even nine months after he exited the White House to write a book, consult and opine in Newsweek, the Wall Street Journal and as an analyst for Fox News.

In recent months one of the worst things Sen. Hillary Clinton could say about her chief opponent, Sen. Barack Obama, was that he was taking moves out of the "Karl Rove playbook." Can you imagine?! "Shame on you, Barack Obama!" she said. Which, if you stop to think about it, means Obama was being successful.

So successful, in fact, that the Illinois freshman senator, ahead in delegates and popular votes, is on the brink of snatching the party's nomination and even acting like the presumptive nominee, ignoring Clinton and taking on who's-its from Arizona.

For his part, a year ago Rove was saying Clinton was the prohibitive favorite for the Democratic presidential nomination and then, later, he said she was a tremendously flawed candidate with extremely high negatives for a national candidate. Both true at the time.

How quickly things change in this season's presidential politics.

Today, Clinton began citing Rove as the ultimate expert on who was the strongest Democratic candidate in the Nov. 4 general. And we've got the exclusive maps below to prove it, all four confidential pages.

No, really!

Campaigning in Kentucky today for tomorrow's....

What if Hillary Clinton had treated Iowa like Barack Obama has Ky. and W. Va.?

Barack Obama ultimately disrespected Kentucky even more than he did West Virginia; he at least made an 11th-hour stop (albeit a brief one) in the latter state the day before its presidential primary last Tuesday.

In the walk-up to Kentucky's nomination contest this Tuesday, the closest he's come to its borders was when he was at home in Chicago on Thursday.**

Since then, he's gone off to South Dakota, Oregon (which also has a primary Tuesday, and where he was greeted by a massive crowd, at left, on Sunday) and Montana (June 3). Tuesday night will find him in Iowa -- not only the site of the caucus win that first fueled his candidacy, but a likely key swing state come November.

Obama's hands-off approach to West Virginia and Kentucky is striking to us on two counts.

One, public protestations notwithstanding, his willingness to concede them to Hillary Clinton in the Democratic race is an unmistakable signal that as he and his aides look toward the general election, neither state figures in its Electoral College calculations. (They are not alone in this assumption -- an astute overlook of the electoral map posted on Salon.com late last week by Democratic pollster Paul Maslin did not include either on the list of 17 states he views as competitive, to varying degrees, in an Obama-John McCain match-up.)

Secondly, it caused us to hark back to the very early stages of the campaign and wonder: What if Clinton had followed the controversial advice of her then-deputy campaign manager, Mike Henry, and taken a pass on a full-fledged effort to win the Jan. 3 caucuses in Iowa?

It was almost exactly a year ago -- May 21 -- that Henry (who left the campaign shortly after Campaign Manager Patti Solis Doyle was replaced early this year) wrote an in-house memo ...