Two huge projected wins for Barack Obama -- Pennsylvania and New Hampshire

So much, it appears, for John McCain's Pennsylvania strategy.

The instant the polls closed in the state, as well as in New Hampshire, ABC News and NBC News called them both for Barack Obama.

It should be noted that CBS News and CNN held off on Pennsylvania.

(UPDATE: CBS, as well as Fox News, have given Pennsylvania to Obama; CNN, as was the case during the primary season, is being more cautious in its projections and is holding off in making a call for the Keystone State.)

(UPDATE II: CNN just joined the pack -- Pennsylvania for Obama.)

If these calls prove correct, it seems unlikely that McCain can win any of the states -- which accounted for 252 electoral votes -- that Democrat John F. Kerry won in 2004. The Republicans had seen New Hampshire, to some degree, and Pennsylvania, to a much larger degree, as possible pickups.

Without either, every state deemed competitive across the rest of the country -- all carried by George W. Bush in 2004 -- would have to end up in McCain's column for him to win.

That's a tough task. Still, among these other states where the polls have closed -- which include Virginia, Indiana and Florida -- none have yet to be called for Obama.

-- Don Frederick

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An energetic, hoarse Sarah Palin races across 6 states from Ohio to Alaska

JEFFERSON CITY, MO. -- She's growing hoarse, no doubt tired, but less than 10 weeks after bursting onto the national political and cultural scene, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin showed no signs of fatigue today as she worked her way through stops in six states, including an overnight flight back home to Alaska to vote.

And then another long flight back down to Arizona on election day.

Other than that, the 44-year-old mother of five was taking it easy on the last day of the historic 2008 presidential race.

Aides said Palin was in high spirits this evening, as she flew from state to state across the nation and up to the top of it to rally supporters for the Republican ticket in five battleground states.

“She’s drawing lots of energy off these big crowds,” said Tucker Eskew, Palin’s senior communications and policy aide, on the tarmac of the Dubuque, Iowa airport. “I think she’s showing that behind the podium.”

Palin drew thousands of supporters at almost ever stop, boisterous crowds that chanted her name over and over and interrupted her several times with cheers so loud that she could not be heard and had to pause in her speech.

On her final day on the campaign trail since life was turned upside-down with her VP selection Aug. 29, Palin today stuck meticulously to a simple jeans-clad image and a bare-bones economic message all day as she hop-scotched traditional red states that are in danger of turning blue.

“The time for choosing is near," she said. "And the choice could not be clearer.” Palin spoke this evening to thousands of boisterous supporters gathered on the south lawn of the picturesque statehouse here.

“Our country is facing tough times. Now more than ever we need someone tough as president. Only John McCain has the wisdom, the experience, the courage to get our economy back on the right track.”

Palin always worked the rope lines with hundreds pushing to touch her hands. But those opportunities were shortened due to the day's tight schedule that began in suburban Cleveland, jumped out to Jefferson City, Mo. and then up to Dubuque, Iowa, out to Colorado Springs and then Reno and on to Elko, Nevada before heading north, way north to vote in Wasilla Tuesday morning.

And then fly back down to join the McCains in Arizona.

Palin was hewing closely to an abbreviated version of her stump speech of recent days, criticizing Barack Obama’s tax proposals and outlining John McCain’s plans for the economy, national security and energy independence. She was no longer raising Obama’s associations with 60s-radical William Ayers or going off-script.

So unwilling was she to provide any possible alternate story line to the day, that Palin ignored reporters' shouted questions for her reaction to the presumably good news in late afternoon that an independent state personnel board had cleared her of impropriety in her firing last summer of the state's safety commissioner in the so-called Troopergate inquiry.

(UPDATE: Palin's lawyer did release a statement on her behalf available here.)

“This election is very much focused on domestic issues and the economy,” Eskew said.

--Seema Mehta

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Photo credit: Associated Press (top); Dave Ketterling / Associated Press (bottom Palin in Iowa with singer Hank Williams Jr.)

Barack Obama thumping John McCain in several key states, new polls report

"Wow," Barack Obama said the other day as he gazed upon an estimated crowd of 100,000 in St. Louis waiting to hear him speak.

"Wow," The Ticket said to itself today after two polling groups released results for several of the most hotly contested states in the presidential race.

John McCain, as part of the feisty underdog role he has taken on, likes to zing Obama for "measuring the drapes" at the White House. If these new findings are even close to being right, Obama can start taking contracting bids for that basketball court he wants to install at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

The jaw-dropping numbers come from the Big Ten Battleground Poll, which is supervised by two University of Wisconsin political science professors. The survey finds Obama ahead -- BY DOUBLE DIGITS -- in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota (as well as his home state of Illinois and Michigan, where McCain pulled up stakes a few weeks ago).

The error margin for the figures from each state is a relatively high plus-or-minus 4.2 percentage points. But even after subtracting Obama's numbers by that amount -- and increasing McCain's numbers by it -- the Democrat still runs ahead in every state. That includes Indiana, which no Democratic presidential candidate has carried since 1964.

Said Charles Franklin, one of the poll's directors: "In September, we saw virtually the entire Big Ten (region) as a battleground. Now Obama is clearly winning. ... The dominance of the economy as a top issue for voters is the overwhelming story.”

The polling institute for Quinnipiac University also shows Obama easily winning Ohio (by 14 points) and Pennsylvania (by 13 points).

One small bit of solace for McCain -- the Quinnipiac survey shows him down only 5 points in Florida; earlier this month, the group's polling found him trailing by 8 points.

Still, Peter Brown, the institute's assistant director, decided not to understate what the trends portend. "If these numbers hold up, (Obama) could win the biggest Democratic landslide since Lyndon Johnson in 1964," he said.

Might that be the final shock provided by this historic campaign?

-- Don Frederick

Barack Obama's spending far exceeds John McCain's and shows states he covets

Barack Obama bought $65 million worth of airtime last month, almost three times as much as John McCain, and shifted $7.6 million to Democratic parties in swing states to organize his campaign efforts.

Obama’s $65.5 million for airtime dwarfed the $22.5 million that McCain spent, according to disclosures filed with the Federal Election Commission. The media firm, GMMB, received the bulk of the money, $63.5 million, to buy airtime.

McCain benefited from spending by the Republican National Committee.

Obama raised a record $150.7 million in September, spent $87.5 million, and entered October with $133 million in the bank -- compared to McCain’s $47 million in the bank at the start of the month.

Obama’s receipts included $118 million raised directly into his campaign account, and $32.5 million from a joint fundraising committee he established with the Democratic National Committee that draw tens of millions in five-figure donations.

Obama’s spending on state parties shows the breadth of his campaign. The Democrat gave $1.7 million to the Florida Democratic Party, and $1.01 million to the party in Ohio. George W. Bush carried both states twice, capturing their combined 47 electoral votes.

Obama gave $821,000 to Michigan where McCain hoped to compete but abandoned earlier this month, and $601,000 in Wisconsin, where Republicans are on the retreat.

The spending also is underscoring Obama’s effort to capture states that virtually no expert predicted would be in play: $253,000 to Montana, with a mere three electoral votes, $257,000 in Indiana, with 11 electoral votes, $391,000 in Virginia.

More of the same is going on this month. After giving $10,000 to the West Virginia Democratic Party last month, Obama started airing television ads in the state that long has voted Republican.

-- Dan Morain

National electoral map: Obama gains two states, McCain one

With 20 days to go until the general election, new research on state polls by Karl Rove & Co. shows two more states moving into the electoral vote column of Sen. Barack Obama and one other state moving from tossup into the column of Sen. John McCain's states.

Obama in recent days (before last night's final debate) has gained Florida and Colorado, a total of 36 hypothetical electoral votes, to give Obama a new total of 313, well beyond the 270 necessary.

McCain gains Indiana's 11 electoral votes to give him a total of 174. Only 51 votes in four states remain in the tossup category, as shown in yellow on the map below, courtesy of Karl Rove & Co. The study's methodology and a chart showing weekly movements from July are available by clicking on the Read more line below.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Sarah Palin heads for Indiana Friday; not a good sign for GOP

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will campaign in Indiana on Friday.

Not a good sign for the Republican ticket.

The 44-year-old vice presidential candidate wows the faithful wherever she goes. She's mobbed by fans, especially young girls. She draws publicity. All good.

But the Republicans should not have to campaign in Indiana less than three weeks out from election day.

Latest state polls show the McCain-Palin ticket ahead by two points in the Hoosier state; Karl Rove's national electoral map, published regularly here in The Ticket, shows the Republicans just having regained Indiana from the tossup category.

But it's a measure of how the Obama-Biden campaign, rolling in money, has forced the GOP candidates to play defense far too long into the campaign. They've recently also been forced to shore up support in two other once-staunch-Republican states -- Virginia and North Carolina.

Even if the Democratic ticket doesn't take Indiana on Nov. 4, it's forced the Republicans to "waste" a precious day of candidate time defending the heartland state and not chipping away at Democratic states elsewhere.

Indiana hasn't voted Democratic in a presidential election since the year Palin was born.

--Andrew Malcolm

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Photo credit: Carolyn Kaster / Associated Press

National electoral map: McCain gains Indiana while Obama holds 277

Nearly two dozen new state polls in recent days show the Democratic Party ticket headed by Sen. Barack Obama holding strong with 277 hypothetical electoral votes, seven more than needed for election, but Sen. John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin have regained traditionally Republican Indiana from the tossup category.

This according to the latest state-by-state poll research compiled by Karl Rove & Co. and published in The Ticket by permission every few days.

With Indiana's 11 electoral votes, the first time since early September that the Republican ticket has gained, McCain-Palin now hold 174 electoral votes while another 87 remain in the tossup category.

A chart showing the weekly movements of this hypothetical electoral vote race is available after the jump, along with an explanation of the research's methodology. Click on the Read more line below.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Sarah Palin: Old hunting photo, new role hunting votes

By now you may have figured out -- because the magazines and online websites sure have -- that Alaska Gov. and Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin is surefire box office. No accident that there's so much attention paid to John McCain's No. 2.

Good or bad, she sells.

So, as our blogging colleague Elizabeth Snead points out, there she is on the Newsweek cover with editor Jon Meacham and columnist Karl Rove arguing inside about her strengths and weaknesses.

Over on her Dish Rag blog, Elizabeth has links to the articles. In this cover image, Palin has a shotgun over her shoulder, just as her father taught his daughter when they went hunting in her teens.

So since when has the hockey mom of five had time to go hunting this fall?

She hasn't.

As Newsweek honestly explains, it's a file photo from 2002, long before Palin knew such images might help with some outdoors-people votes in crucial swing states in about four weeks.

So what's next, do you think? Barack Obama in hip waders and orange hunting jacket bitterly clinging to a dead goose's neck in a bid for the small-town Pennsylvania vote?

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Barack Obama updates a classic Ronald Reagan formulation

Barack Obama is on the record with a prime contender for sound bite of the day (an aspect of contemporary campaigning at which he does not routinely excel).

Headlining a rally in Indiana, one of those states that normally would have long since been conceded to the Republican presidential candidate but where this year the Democratic ticket appears competitive, Obama focused on the obvious issue: the economy. And here's the remark that drew a chuckle (though perhaps an apprehensive one) from his crowd:

You know, back in 1980, Ronald Reagan asked the electorate whether you were better off than you were four years ago. At the pace things are going right now, you’re going to have to ask whether you’re better off than you were four weeks ago.

The lines weren't part of the prepared text sent out by the Obama campaign. Whoever penned it deserves a raise (unless, of course, the candidate himself came up with it).

-- Don Frederick

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No Dandy Dan (Quayle) Dancing with the Stars

Speaking of vice presidential picks, in this the 20th anniversary month of Sen. Dan Quayle's selection as the No. 2 presidential partner for Republican George H. W. Bush, we have official word from Quayle headquarters in Arizona.

The report that Quayle will dance his way across the stage in a pretend competition with other people who used to be sort-of famous for something else is an unfounded rumor.

According to a very polite and patient Quayle assistant, who was answering a stream of calls in the Scottsdale heat, the nation's 44th vice president was indeed invited to appear on the TV show and never even seriously considered it.

"We get all kinds of crazy requests for him to do things," she said. "He's busy with his work."

Apparently, if you can imagine such a thing, some show biz publicity types invite a famous person to appear, knowing full well they won't, and then leak erroneous word to celebrity writers just to get people to talk about their show. Judging by this item, it works. 

Quayle, the last vice presidential nominee to be announced during the actual nominating convention, is chairman of an international division of Cerberus Capital Management, the giant multi-billion-dollar fund that now controls Chrysler and GMAC Financial Services, among many other things in many places, which is what you can do when you control billions of dollars.

So what about Walter Mondale? Is he available to merengue, a dance that not many people know wasn't invented by a more recent vice president?

--Andrew Malcolm

Photo credit: Associated Press