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Nearly five months after John McCain effectively locked down the Republican presidential nomination, many leaders of the religious right remain underwhelmed. A new Newsweek article asserts that McCain's candidacy has "tamped down" enthusiasm among these conservatives, "exposing fractures that make a rallying of the troops in the pews unlikely."
The recent L.A. Times/Bloomberg national poll spotlighted a pronounced "passion gap" in the presidential race, with fully 81% of Barack Obama supporters declaring themselves fired up about his candidacy and only 45% of the McCain backers feeling likewise about their man.
And here's an even more concrete sign of the difficulty McCain has been having rallying core Republicans, courtesy of a Gannett News Service story published Monday: "Of the more than 900 Hoosiers who contributed at least $2,000 to President Bush's re-election campaign, only about 50 had contributed to the Arizona senator by the end of [May], according to a review of campaign disclosure reports...."
McCain headlines a fundraiser in Indiana today, so he'll no doubt reel in some of those heretofore reticent givers. He then heads off on a short jaunt to Colombia and Mexico (a trip that The Times' Mark Barabak, in a Sunday story, termed part of the "unusual path" McCain is pursuing in his White House bid).
-- Don Frederick
Bob Zaltsberg is the editor of the Bloomington Herald-Times and back in April he got the idea to send one of his 12 reporters out on a big story, the passing through southern Indiana of the Barack Obama whirlwind.
They routinely cover campaigns when they're local, but this assignment involved traveling an hour away to Columbus, Ind.
James Boyd was the lucky fellow assigned to get himself over to Columbus, where he boarded the Obama campaign bus on April 11 for the 39-mile ride across to Bloomington and Obama's two quick stops there before Boyd jumped off the campaign to write his story.
The other day a bill arrived from the Obama campaign. It was expected. "We didn't want or expect a free ride," says the good-natured Zaltsberg.
What wasn't expected was the amount -- $438.74, which is about $11.25 a mile. No small sum for a smaller newspaper. (Or a larger one either these days!) For instance, Boyd had a turkey sandwich and cup of soup; cost for that $116.62. (He must have used the pepper to account for the extra 62 cents.)
The bus transportation -- $226.17 -- seemed a little large for less than an hour but it was chartered. Then, the paper got nailed for another $91.41 for something labeled "Files."
The facts are that the increasing costs of covering political campaigns in recent years and declining revenues for many news operations have seen the traveling news media contingents dwindle considerably, even from 2000. This, of course, reduces the independent coverage of candidates seeking the nation's highest elected office and the means of spreading the candidate's message.
With prorated airfares added in, it can cost thousands of dollars a day to maintain a full-time reporter with a major political campaign.
"This was a rare primary," says Zaltsberg, "and thus a rare opportunity for an H-T reporter to travel with a campaign, even for such a short distance."
The editor, who provides an itemized copy of the campaign's bill here, notes that Obama claims he will make Indiana a battleground state come fall.
But if that traveling circus does come back through his newspaper's area, Zaltsberg says, "We'll probably skip the all-inclusive bus package and drive along behind."
-- Andrew Malcolm
Much attention, understandably, is being paid to the notes Barack Obama sounds in his first general election television ad, which starts running Friday and can be viewed here.
Its emphasis on family values, self reliance and patriotism would have made Ronald Reagan's media shop proud. And in case anyone misses the point, the spot's title -- "Country I Love" -- says it all.
What really grabs us, however, is where the ad will appear (and, in one case, where it won't).
For the most part, the 18-state list is predictable. It includes the battlegrounds, large and small, that political analysts expect to watch through election day: Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico among them.
But the list also includes a handful of reliably Republican places where Obama aides have been saying they believe he can compete, based on strength he showed among certain voting blocs during the primary season.
The states in this category are Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Carolina and Virginia.
And then there are two states -- Alaska and North Dakota -- where the airing of the Obama ad demonstrates that:
A) His campaign knows something about these GOP redoubts that the rest of us doesn't;
B) When you're riding herd over an organization that raises massive amounts of cash seemingly without breaking a sweat -- and just today announced it was breaking free of the restraints imposed by the campaign finance system, as our friends at The Swamp write about here -- you can afford to take a flier on a couple of longshots, especially when the media markets are inexpensive;
C) It's always fun, when the November election still seems a long way off, to play in a few of your rival's backyards, if for no other reason than to cause some headaches on the other side.
Probably some combination of A, B and C explains the decision to advertise in Alaska (which President Bush carried with 61% of the vote in 2004) and North Dakota (which Bush won with 63% of the vote four years ago).
Looking at all seven states where the Obama ad buy raises eyebrows, here are some of the daunting historical facts ...
Read more Barack Obama ad targets include some shockers »
On this, the first anniversary of our Top of the Ticket blog, we are reminded of the mercurial, unpredictable nature of U.S. politics -- part of what makes what we do so fascinating.
Our goal -- one of us on the East Coast and the other on the far more important or at least less humid West Coast -- was to write about Campaign '08 virtually around the clock.
Our second-ever posting, 12 months ago today, previewed an upcoming L.A. Times/Bloomberg Poll; later in the day, we detailed the results of the nationwide survey. The findings were in line with other polls of the time.
In the Republican presidential race, which then seemed the most likely to last deep into the primary season, Rudy Giuliani was perched in first place. His lead wasn't overwhelming, but it was strong enough that he appeared certain to remain a major contender.
His liberal record on social issues loomed as an obvious liability within his party, but his tough-on-terrorism message was attracting substantial support from moderates and GOP-leaning independents.
His major headache among rivals last June was an as-yet-undeclared candidate who was riding a wave as the great conservative hope -- Fred Thompson. He ran a strong second in the poll.
Lagging far behind were John McCain and Mitt Romney, each barely with double-digit support. In our preview posting, we were especially scornful of McCain, noting sarcastically (and foolishly, as it turned out) that in the poll, he found himself "in heated competition with the 'Don't Know' category."
Meriting no mention from us was Mike Huckabee, one of several back-of-the-pack candidates barely earning any support across the country.
The Democratic race, at that point, seemed so much more cut-and-dried.
Hillary Clinton was the clear front-runner; Barack Obama was just as clearly ...
Read more Top of the Ticket, the start of Year Two »
Anybody who watches the guest interview parts of the Sunday morning political talk shows gets more than his or her weekly dose of carefully-crafted campaign talking points.
It sounds like the politicians are answering the question. But half the time, if you run the tape back and re-listen, it's the answer they wanted to give to a question they didn't want to get.
Sure, "The Daily Show" and "The Colbert Report" and Jay and Dave and Jimmy do their nightly best to offer comedic insights to our zany politics. But it's too bad that fans of politics must wait almost a full week for the real thing on the next edition of NBC's long-lived "Saturday Night Live." There's a reason for the long-lived part.
This clip, from this last Saturday, is a classic, featuring ''Hillary Clinton'' making the case for why she should be the Democrats' presidential choice to run against Sen. John McCain instead of what's-his-name from Illinois, who's trying to steal the nomination simply because he has more votes, delegates and states won.
Click on this video and enjoy.
-- Andrew Malcolm
Some people have been looking for signs of a graceful exit from the Democratic presidential race by New York Sen. Hillary Clinton. They probably should not be holding their breath.
Terry McAuliffe, her campaign chairman and himself a former head of the Democratic National Committee, made it clear Sunday that isn't happening anytime soon.
And Clinton's chief spokesman, Howard Wolfson, went on "Fox News Sunday" to state and re-state a firm belief that his boss would win and she was in the race until somebody got 2,209 delegates, which would mean counting Florida and Michigan.
McAuliffe was in there swinging too on both "Face the Nation" and "Meet the Press," arguing that Clinton still has a chance to win the party nomination.
It's a good time for her campaign to make that argument because, if you believe some state polls, Clinton is poised to crush Barack Obama in West Virginia in Tuesday's primary voting there, some suggest by as much as a two-to-one margin. Once a solidly Democratic state, it's gone to the GOP two straight times now.
And if the superdelegates are smart, McAuliffe suggested, they'll resist the Obama bandwagon effect, hold out and not do anything that might turn off the many....
Read more Don't push her! Clinton's campaign chair warns fellow Democrats »
Here it is again, our regular Saturday noon Ticket Notice listing of the Sunday morning TV talk shows, so you can choose who you're going to talk back to from your couch.
ABC's "This Week": Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.), McCain supporter a nd former CEO of Hewlett-Packard Carly Fiorina, and a round table with the Washington Post's Ruth Marcus, ABC News' Sam Donaldson, Cokie Roberts and George Will
Bloomberg's "Political Capital With Al Hunt": Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.)
CBS's "Face the Nation": John Edwards, McAuliffe and Politico's Jim VandeHei
CNN's "Late Edition": Reps. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez (Ret.), Iraqi Ambassador to the U.S. Samir Sumaidaie, and a round table with CNN's Ed Henry and Jessica Yellin
C-SPAN's "Newsmakers": Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.) will be interviewed by New York Times congressional reporter David Herszenhorn  and Damian Paletta of the Wall Street Journal.
"Fox News Sunday": Obama strategist David Axelrod and Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson; the power player is Ben Stein.
MSNBC's "The Chris Matthews Show": Ron Allen, NBC News Clinton campaign correspondent; Katty Kay, BBC American politics correspondent; John Heilemann, political reporter, New York magazine; and Michelle Cottle, senior editor, the New Republic
MSNBC's "Tim Russert": Barbara Walters, TV journalist and author of "Audition"
NBC's "Meet the Press": Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.), Clinton chairman Terry McAuliffe, and a round table with Washingtonpost.com's Chris Cillizza, CNBC's John Harwood, NPR's Michele Norris and the Wall Street Journal's Gerald Seib
-- Andrew Malcolm
Photos: Associated Press
"The Democratic race now moves to West Virginia," Jay Leno noted during his monologue Thursday night on "The Tonight Show." "Today, Hillary Clinton claimed she always wanted to be a coal miner. But those dreams were da shed when she was forced to attend Wellesley and Yale."
The political focus now does, indeed, shift to the Mountaineer State for its primary there next Tuesday. And then Kentucky and Oregon and Puerto Rico down to the very end in Montana on June 3 when springtime there is just weeks away.
The Times' not-so-old political pro, Mark Z. Barabak, had an interesting conversation with another not-so-old political pro, Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist who cut his presidential political teeth in the 1980 Jimmy Carter campaign. Later he worked in the unsuccessful presidential efforts of Al Gore and John Kerry. Devine is not involved with any candidate this time around.
But the way he sees the inevitable delegate math in favor of Barack Obama and the current Democratic race ending is, counterintuitively, the worst thing that could happen to the Illinois senator in....
Read more Why Barack Obama fears a sudden end to Hillary Clinton's campaign »
Did she, or did she not, play the "race card?"
That's the question being hashed over in much of political Washington concerning comments Hillary Clinton made to USA Today in making her case for soldiering on in her bid to draw to an inside straight and overtake Barack Obama in the Democratic presidential race.
Here's the passage swirling the discussion: " 'I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on,' she said in an interview with USA Today. As evidence, Clinton cited an Associated Press article 'that found how Sen. Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states (those voting in Tuesday's Indiana and North Carolina primaries) who had not completed college were supporting me.' "
"There's a pattern emerging here," she said.
Her defenders scoffed at the notion that she was sowing divisiveness, saying she was merely stating the obvious and that she resisted any mention of the almost monolithic support from blacks that has been central to Obama's successes.
Clinton herself, the article says later, "rejected any idea ...
Read more Hillary Clinton and the race card »
With the Democratic primary struggle between Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton possibly prolonged by Republicans crossing over to perversely support the New Yorker, conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh has unfurled a figurative "Mission Accomplished" banner on his radio program.
And although the bombastic broadcaster has absolutely no control over any of it, he has also officially urged two seemingly contradictory things: that Clinton should continue her now nearly hopeless struggle to win the Democratic presidential nomination -- "You've come too far to quit now; don't listen to the voices of surrender" -- and urged Democrats to nominate Obama, the freshman senator from Illinois.
"I now believe he would be the weakest of the Democrat nominees," Limbaugh said. "“He can get effete snobs, he can get wealthy academics, he can get the young, and he can get the black vote. But Democrats do not win with that.”
That's the showbiz point of Limbaugh's initially silly but then seriously serious Operation Chaos, not to pick any particular Democratic candidate but to help them both bloody each other to irreparably hurt the liberal cause for the fall campaign.
Limbaugh says he came upon the disruptive idea when it ...
Read more Rush Limbaugh proclaims 'Mission Accomplished' in Operation Chaos vs. Obama, Clinton »
The good thing about an exclusive political news story is that you're the only with it.
The bad thing about an exclusive political news story is that you're the only one with it. And that can sometimes be because you're dead wrong. Remember the botched state election calls in the 2000 presidential election?
The amount of Mylanta going down over at CBS News must have really gone up Tuesday evening after the initial euphoria of bein g the first network to call Indiana a win for Sen. Hillary Clinton. And the only one. And the only one. And the only one.
For five full hours. All alone out there in political TV land.
So why exactly did CBS News feel comfortable doing that so far in front of the rest of the media?
The network wouldn’t provide details today about what went down at its decision desk last night, except to say it felt confident in its call at 8:09 p.m. Eastern time. That's when CBS anchor Katie Couric broke into the “NCIS” sleuth show to report the network was projecting that Clinton would win Indiana and....
Read more CBS mum on calling Indiana for Clinton so early -- and correctly »
Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama just got through assaulting each other a few hours ago over delegates from Indiana and North Carolina. And now a bunch of Clinton supporters are pushing the idea of a "unity ticket" featuring both of them.
How likely does that seem right now?
But wait! They don't have to decide that right now. It's a long time until Denver in August. Several geological ages in this political cycle.  Do these two look like Democratic running mates or a couple beginning therapy?
The proposal is being pushed through a new website, founded by Adam Parkhomenko, called VoteBoth.com.
It's the much-talked-about-and-more-recently-ignored-especially-by-the-Obama-folks-idea of a so-called Dream Ticket. At the moment one might think that Obama would be on top, if he (and Michelle) would even consider the idea, given his vote totals, delegate totals, state totals and the feared sentiment among many Democrats if the first serious African American candidate was denied the top spot.
Not to mention the resulting ubiquitous White House presence of a certain ex-president who's said some divisive things in support of his Mrs. But, hey, this is politics, right? Bygones and all that for the good of the party come November.
The red, white and blue website with the title that flashes between Obama-Clinton and Clinton-Obama is currently not very full of press clippings on the effort. Maybe this will become a new one there. Maybe not.
But here's an interesting piece of background to get minds thinking and tongues talking: The website founder, Parkhomenko, used to be the assistant to Patti Solis Doyle, who used to be the campaign manager for Sen. Hillary Clinton.
How's that for coincidences?
-- Andrew Malcolm
Photo Credit: CNN
Just look at his face!
Doesn't William Jefferson Clinton look absolutely delighted with his wife's Democratic presidential primary victory in Indiana?
Sure the Clinton campaign (Hillary's) had hoped to do much better in North Carolina. It is difficult to put a happy face on a 14-point thumping down there by Sen. Barack Obama. But at least she tried -- "Thank you, Indiana!" -- even though Hillary didn't know when she gave her victory speech how close her opponent would come by night's end (1%) to pulling out a win in the Hoosier State as well.
Bill Clinton has arguably been helpful to his wife's now 15-month White House effort. The crowds are supposed to love him. And many do. But he's often stepped on her message, creating unwanted news of his own to detract from hers. In South Carolina, his controversial racial comments may well have cost her badly in that state's primary, and they might have hurt her again Tuesday in next-door North Carolina, where 9 out of 10 blacks voted against the wife of the man so popular with African Americans that he was once called the first black president. Instead, they voted for the man who may well be the first black president.
Professional political packagers often mute the sound on TV to just watch the real message seeping out from the moving pictures on screen. President Ronald Reagan's communications crew once sincerely thanked CBS correspondent Leslie Stahl for a devastatingly critical news report she'd done on his senior citizen programs because the pictures showed Reagan talking amiably with numerous fellow seniors.
Last night, as the Clinton campaign did after her disappointing third-place finish in the Iowa caucuses, the senator's political packagers let her down by allowing her husband (and daughter) onstage with her.
To be sure, by this point in virtually any presidential campaign, it is difficult for all but the most intimate staff to tell a candidate what he/she should do, so sold on themselves have the candidates become by hundreds of adoring crowds and the automatic subservience of virtually everyone around them. It is particularly hard to say "No!" to an ex-president and an ex-first lady who both think she should be president.
But Bill's glum puss, standing there right behind her, competing for the eyes of every television viewer everywhere, throughout the candidate's remarks visibly contradicted virtually every hopeful, positive word she said. As a veteran and successful campaigner for himself, he could know better.
It was the same after her Iowa defeat. (See photo below) There she was onstage before an immense banner -- "READY for Change!" -- and an enthusiastic crowd of fans who, however, went largely unseen on TV in the darkness in front of the stage.
And as millions of Americans at home watched the one-time frontrunner valiantly argue her case, what did everyone actually see? About two dozen glum faces of disappointed campaign workers surrounding her, no doubt invited there to share the spotlight and offer moral support.
But they looked more like an oversized grieving family at a memorial service (in fact, look how many are wearing black), including a whole pack of faces familiar from the 1990s -- Bill and Chelsea and, directly by Clinton's right elbow, Madeline Albright!
This is READY for change? Living reminders of the turbulent Clinton past. While running against the fresh face and rhetoric of the triumphant Obama?
By the next week in New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton or her communications advisors had learned their lesson. Click on Read More below to see that photo.
Read more Hillary and Bill Clinton in defeat and victory: When pictures tell the story »
According to the prepared remarks for his North Carolina victory speech Tuesday evening in Raleigh, Sen. Barack Obama was supposed to say, “I want to start by congratulating Senator Clinton on her victory in the state of Indiana.”
But Obama changed that line. And here's what he ended up saying, “I want to start by congratulating Senator Clinton on what appears to be her victory in the great state of Indiana.”
It may have been a hopeful move on his part, having won a big victory in North Carolina and, in the end, coming a whole  lot closer to putting Sen. Hillary Clinton away for good with a surprise win in Indiana. But by apparently coming within about 20,000 votes of also capturing the Hoosier State, Obama's campaign now says it plans a major change in direction.
On the Obama plane out of North Carolina tonight, his chief strategist, David Axelrod, apparently convinced that Clinton can no longer beat them, told The Times' Peter Nicholas that Obama will likely cut back his intensive primary campaigning in the remaining states; West Virginia is next Tuesday. And start his actual general election campaign almost immediately.
"We've got to multi-task here," Axelrod said enroute back to Chicago. "Superdelegates are a part of this and also a focus on the general election is important. Sen. McCain has basically run free for some time now. Everyone is eager to get on with this."
Of course, putting out such self-serving remarks may also help feed the impression that pervaded much of the evening's television chatter on how much longer Clinton could last and how graceful would be her exit. Right now, the campaigns' attention is focused on the less than 300 uncommitted superdelegates.
The fact is Obama scored so well in Lake County, Indiana especially among Gary's overwhelmingly black population, that he came within some 20,000 of scoring a huge upset.
Obama could start campaigning more against Sen. John McCain as a way of, in effect, marginalizing Clinton's continuing effort and convincing superdelegates it's all but over.
A major swing by a growing number of them could undermine Clinton's rationale for continuing, although no one underestimates the remaining fight in Clinton.
--Andrew Malcolm
Photo Credit: ABC News
ABC's "Nightline," in its wrap-up report Monday night on the Indiana and North Carolina primaries, just  couldn't resist.
Barack Obama was asked to respond to a controversial comment James Carville recently uttered about Obama's anatomical makeup and that of Hillary Clinton (who Carville favors in the Democratic presidential race).
If we've learned anything about Obama as the primaries have ground on, it's that he is slow to anger. But Carville can try anyone's patience, and he clearly has tested Obama's.
Said the Illinois senator: "Well, you know, James Carville is well-known for spouting off his mouth without always knowing what he's talking about. And I intend to stay focused on fighting for the American people because what they don't need is 20 more years of performance art on television. And that's what James Carville and a lot of those folks are expert at ... a lot of talk and not getting things done for the American people."
In the middle of an earlier flap sparked by one of his remarks, Carville made a point of saying he would quickly enlist in Obama's campaign if he ends up being the Democratic nominee. We imagine the Obama staff would be tempted to declare him 4F.
The full interview with Obama can be seen here.
--Don Frederick
Photo credit: Getty Images
Barack Obama already had come to rue the comment he made, while campaigning in Indiana in April, about the potential importance of the state's primary. And he probably rues it a bit more after Hillary Clinton and her crew threw it in his face tonight, conveniently skewing for their own purposes one key word.
In the days before the April 22 primary in Pennsylvania, Obama conceded that Clinton had the edge in that state, made himself the favorite in North Carolina (which joined Indiana in conducting a primary today) and said the Hoosier state "may end up being the tiebreaker."
Clinton, taking the stage in Indianapolis a few moments ago to claim what may end up a narrow win for her in Indiana (a key county expected to tilt toward Obama remained to be counted), immediately spotlighted his comment -- except she ignored his use of the conditional, saying he had predicted Indiana "would" be the tiebreaker.
Around the same time, her staff issued a memo that similarly tried to use the "tiebreaker" comment as a way to put the best possible spin on a day that was less than stellar for Clinton, given that her dual hopes of winning ...
Read more Clinton puts a word in Obama's mouth »
"Call it," the crowd of Hillary Clinton supporters gathered in a ballroom in downtown Indianapolis had been chanting Tuesday night, when she staked out a big early lead over Barack Obama in the Indiana Democratic presidential primary.
But with the exception of CBS News, the television networks and the Associated Press continued to view the contest as too close to call.
And, Times reporter Noam Levey tells us, the Clinton crowd grew increasingly quiet as the Indiana race grew increasingly tight.
-- Don Frederick
When Barack Obama took the stage to bask in his big victory in North Carolina's Democratic presidential primary, all but one of the television networks remained unwilling to call the day's other contest, the primary in Indiana.
 But Obama showed no such hesitation, saying early in his remarks that he wanted to congratulate Hillary Clinton "on what appears to be her victory in the great state of Indiana."
Maybe Obama has great confidence in the number-crunchers at CBS, the one network that had broken from the pack earlier and given Indiana to Clinton. But more likely, his comment was simply in line with the tone he clearly sought to strike -- gracious about triumphing in North Carolina by a comfortable, and politically important, margin and anxious to start healing fissures within Democratic ranks.
Perhaps the most significant aspect of Obama's speech was his reference to exit poll findings that a growing portion of his partisans and -- to an even greater degree -- some Clinton backers are saying they would be unwilling to line up behind the Democratic nominee in November if their choice does not prevail.
"I don't believe it," Obama said, launching into a brief discourse on the need for Democrats to remember which side they truly need to be on.
Even as he spoke, the race in Indiana got closer -- with about three-quarters of the vote in there, Clinton's lead had shrunk to ...
Read more Barack Obama willing to concede Indiana »
CBS News has called Indiana for Sen. Hillary Clinton. Sen. Barack Obama had already won North Carolina.
--Andrew Malcolm
That sigh of relief many in the political world just heard came from the Barack Obama presidential campaign.
The moment the polls closed in North Carolina, Obama instantly was declared the winner by all the television networks and the Associated Press. So he not only dodged his worst-case scenario -- losing both of the day's primaries -- but he may be headed to an impressive victory in North Carolina.
Hillary Clinton has maintained a lead in Indiana since all polls closed there at 7 p.m. (EDT), but the state has yet to called, in part because Obama strongholds have yet to report.
Assuming the final polls from Indiana proved correct and she wins the state, the night becomes a matter of watching the margins -- and preparing for the campaign to continue.
West Virginia -- very favorable turf for Clinton -- is up next, with a primary next Tuesday.
-- Don Frederick
Fox News Channel gave Rush Limbaugh a nod as it reported early (and subject to further adjustment) exit poll numbers showing that Republicans who cast ballots in the Indiana Democratic presidential primary broke for Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama, 52% to 46%.
The folks at Fox wondered if that advantage for Clinton might reflect Limbaugh's crusade for GOP-inclined voters to do their part to prolong the Democratic race (which then could cripple the party, come November).
Limbaugh's effect will be impossible to prove ... but no doubt he'll claim it was immense.
Other exit poll figures, via Fox (reiterating that they are subject to change): Indiana Democrats favored Clinton, 53% to 47%, while Obama had an edge among independents, 51% to 49%.
-- Don Frederick
If there's one sure thing we should have learned from the year's protracted Democratic presidential race, it's that waaaaaaay too much stock is invested in the predictive power of the early waves of exit polls. So perhaps it's just as well that the first reports on what these surveys show seem contradictory.
First, from the good news for Barack Obama/bad news for Hillary Clinton department. The venerable Matt Drudge blares this on his website -- "HILLARY'S 'DOUBLE DREAM' DASHED: EXITS SHOW EASY OBAMA WIN IN NC."
But then there's this report, on Time magazine's The Page website -- "Fox: Was Rev. Wright 'very' or 'somewhat' important? Indiana and North Carolina: 48% Yes."
That's a high number of voters with Obama's former pastor on their mind, which his camp can't feel good about.
-- Don Frederick
MERRILLVILLE, Ind. -- Hillary Clinton began her presidential campaign in pearls, assembling a team of fundraisers that included luminaries from New York's financial services industry.
She's ending it in pickup trucks, Dairy Queens and fire stations, taking a 2-by-4 to "Wall Street money brokers" and vowing to break up oil-rich OPEC.
No development in the 2008 campaign is quite so striking as Clinton's transformation from a front-runner policy wonk with deep pockets to a cash-starved populist staking her hopes in today's North Carolina and Indiana primaries on a promise to lower gas prices.
"If I were president, I would be jumping up and down in the White House" to cut gas prices, she shouted to a crowd of several hundred supporters at a firehouse here.
Necessity is the mother of Clinton's populism, longtime observers say.
"It's a highly effective argument in a primary during an economic downturn," says Doug Schoen, a former pollster for former President Bill Clinton.
"She's not a true populist -- not at all," Schoen says. "She wasn't getting white males ...
Read more Hillary Clinton: From pearls to populism »
Rush Limbaugh, the self-appointed Commander-in-Chief of Operation Chaos, is puffing on his immense cigar and gloating at this very moment in his Florida bunker. And preparing to celebrate two more grand and glorious political victories over Democrats today, no matter who wins the primaries in Indiana and Florida.
 Usually as shy and retiring as, say, P.T. Barnum, the influential conservative radio talk-show host is in his bombastic element these past couple of months, ordering many of his 12 million-plus obedient daily listeners to switch their voting registration presumably from the Republican party and go cast a ballot wherever they are for Sen. Hillary Clinton.
Not because he suddenly likes her after all these years of anti-Clinton rants. Nor, judging by what he's said on the air, because he's a huge fan of the presumptive Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain, who isn't conservative enough for the broadcaster.
Rushbo says he couldn't care less who wins the Democratic Party's presidential nomination. He just wants the two surviving candidates to beat up on each other as long as possible, hopefully...
Read more Rush Limbaugh says Clinton-Obama race is proceeding precisely according to his plan »
Early in the 1980s rising television star Oprah Winfrey was looking for a local church in Chicago. Not surprisingly, she like many blacks including four years later a community organizer named Barack Obama, was attracted to Trinity United Church of Christ and its dynamic, outspoken pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
That South Side church was THE place for upwardly mobile Windy City blacks to connect and it had an aggressive community ou treach program. And attendance continued Winfrey's childhood connection with black churches and their shared sense of community and support.
As The Ticket noted Sunday morning, the same reasons caused other black clergy to steer the young Obama there, saying he'd have more luck connecting with black churches in his urban organizing efforts if he actually belonged to one himself. Obama's friends later added that alighting at Trinity with its forceful male leader was also part of the mixed-race Obama's exploration of his black identity in the absence of his father.
Things went along fine for several years, as Oprah's fame and fortune exploded and as Obama laid the groundwork in local efforts and political connections for his political career.
But something began bothering Winfrey. By the....
Read more Why Oprah quit Jeremiah Wright's church and Barack Obama didn't »
In the unusual position of running ahead of schedule, Sen. Hillary Clinton took her campaign caravan by a local Dairy Queen in South Bend, Ind., Sunday afternoon, picking up a Blizzard and making a friend with one would-be voter.
Also at the DQ were Dylan Panzica, age 7, and his dad. In his fist Dylan carried a few dollars to buy himself an ice cream for his birthday -- along with a Barack Obama pin that a volunteer for the Illinois senator had dropped by the house earlier in the day.
But Dylan said he was having doubts about his choice to support Obama: "My mom got mad at me," he explained. "She said nobody likes women anymore."
Clinton sealed the deal as she was waiting to order. The New York senator signed her name over Obama's on Dylan's pin.
-- Noam N. Levey
The day Barack Obama first appeared in the church office of the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., more than 20 years ago, the pastor warned him that getting involved with Chicago's Trinity United Church of Christ might not be "a feather in your cap."
Obama was a community organizer then trying to build support for his group on the South Side of Chicago, and a friendly minister at another church had suggested that he'd have more luck with black clergy support if he actually joined a congregation himself.
"Some of my fellow clergy don't appreciate what we're about," Wright told him that day, as Obama would later recount it. "They feel like we're too radical. Others [think] we ain't radical enough."
Obama ended up joining, a story he tells in his memoirs, and later was influenced enough by Wright to derive the title of a subsequent book, "The Audacity of Hope," from one of the pastor's sermons.
Some have speculated that Wright became a father figure for Obama, whose father had left the family and returned to Africa. As The Ticket noted the other day, others believe Obama was attracted by Wright's cerebral nature, as opposed to other less-educated black ministers on Chicago's South Side.
But despite the warning, the association did not seem to be a terribly risky one for Obama, given the arc of the career he was beginning to craft even then.
He was carefully constructing his resume as a street-savvy community organizer while also applying for admission to law school. Within the walls of Trinity, he found a connection to the African American community he'd lacked as a child raised by his white mother and grandparents, an important cultural marker for a biracial candidate who later would try to appeal to black and white voters alike.
He'd share church membership with some of Chicago's influential thinkers and leaders, among them lawmakers, judges and Oprah Winfrey. And in Wright he would find ...
Read more Ticket Special Report: How and why Barack Obama allied himself with the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. »
A small but revealing shift today by the Obama campaign in the public packaging of its candidate, who's caught some flak in recent weeks for his elitist comments and references. (Not to mention Rev. Jeremiah Wright.)
Clearly that elite criticism touched an Obama nerve as the multimillionaire, Ivy League-educated lawyer Hillary Clin ton goes about the Rust Belt downing shots in urban taverns, talking about hunting and "buying" gas with a sheet metal worker. It paid off for her in dominating the recent primary results among the small working class towns of central Pennsylvania.
So Barack Obama and his surrogates began a barrage of seemingly casual comments noting he was the child of a single mother who once used food stamps. No more talk in possibly bitter small towns of Harvard, Columbia and the outrageous price of arugula in Hyde Park these days.
But now, instead of being introduced by the usual local politicians or officials at his public events as a reward in local publicity for their backing, the honor of preceding the candidate on stage and saying a few words to the crowd and cameras is being awarded to regular folks chosen by his advance teams.
The goal: to counter a perception among many that...
Read more Obama tweaks public events to stress regular guy but then came the roller rink »
A few minutes of lighter political entertainment on a Saturday evening before we have to get into all the heavy stuff on those political talk shows tomorrow morning, leading up to Tuesday's crucial votes in North Carolina and Indiana:  Click here.
-- Andrew Malcolm
Boy, have we got something new for you. See how excited even the former first lady is about it?
This is a two-part item:
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Click Follow. Enroll there for alerts on every new Ticket item AND our instant, breaking-news election results starting wi th the next election, which seems like No. 137, doesn't it? It's all free, of course.
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Once again, on election day Tuesday, like every election day, we're going to have election result updates all evening for our Twitter subscribers.
You can see here how happy Democratic presidential candidate and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton is upon receiving word that she's been accepted as a Ticket newsletter and Twitter subscriber.
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Click there to receive our nightly e-mail Politics newsletter. It's full of the newest LATimes.com stories and the freshest Ticket items posted since you fell asleep watching that warehouse in Kansas burn and woke up at 2 to the voice of Lindsay who's-its praising her favorite mattress. (By the way, if it's such a great mattress, why is she always awake at that hour?)
Click here to bookmark The Ticket and check us often. This is such an unusual and exciting election season, we're basically blogging The Ticket around the clock with all kinds of unpredictable items. You never know when we might find something fresh or funny and post it at any hour. (Just look when Don posted his Pennsylvania preview before us this morning!)
You don't want people to look at you strangely in the street and be thinking, "That sure doesn't look like a Ticket reader." You want to be as happy and informed as Hillary. And now it's even easier.
-- Andrew Malcolm
Fair is fair.
On the heels of Barack Obama's starring role Thursday in the Top Ten segment on the "Late Show with David Letterman," CBS has announced that Hillary Clinton will get the same slot on Monday's show.
Obama had delivered a Top Ten list back in January, but Clinton is a veritable mainstay for Letterman. The CBS release announcing her latest appearance notes that it will be the 11th time she's been a part of the program.
And, actually, perhaps there is a fairness question surrounding the chance Clinton gets for friendly exposure on a broadcast network on the eve of the North Carolina and Indiana primaries.
Got to give her campaign credit, though: It's getting better at this gambit. On the eve of the crucial Ohio and Texas primaries, in early March, her chance to soften her image was confined to cable -- a guest spot on "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart."
-- Don Frederick
We've learned from the start of his campaign cycle that the presidential polls have not been a reliable predictor of votes, and we offer this with the usual shroud of skepticism. Fresh poll aggregates on Real Clear Politics show solid support for Barack Obama in North Carolina, and strong reason for hope for Hillary Clinton in Indiana.
Which would make Tuesday yet another draw, with neither candidate likely to mount more than an incremental change in the delegate count. This begins to sound a bit like a broken record, but what else can you call this but a stalemate? There aren't enough delegates left in the remaining contests for either to seal the nomination.
Superdelegates -- let's just call them SuperDs, shall we? easier to type -- are watching, at least those who haven't committed. The SuperDs (imagine them in tights and capes) also have to be getting concerned that all that good mojo from the start of the campaign cycle, when everybody got along and made nice, might be gone for good.
The Democrats are very anxious to win the White House in the fall. But is all this discord setting them up for something akin to political self-immolation? From the pragmatic outside perspective, the nation's in the midst of an unpopular war and is dragged down by a dicey economy. The Republicans hold the White House and their presumptive presidential nominee, John McCain supports the war and has admitted economics isn't his strong suit.
If the Democrats can't turn that into a victory, then it might be time for little intervention. And a very large mirror.
-- Scott Martelle
Maybe Hillary Clinton should have stuck with whiskey. You know, screw off the cap and pour instead of hunting around for a buttons. Or, better yet, get the bartender to do it for you (helps the local jobs picture). This MSNBC-based video has had more than 700,000 views on YouTube.
-- Scott Martelle
It feels sometimes like there is no news item that can't draw a prepared statement from a political candidate. And the new jobless numbers prompted John McCain and Hillary Clinton -- or, at least, some enterprising members of their staffs -- to toss out statements this morning.
We'll warn you right now there's not a whole lot of innovation here, mostly just using the moment to score already familiar points. And while Barack Obama's campaign didn't issue a statement, he wove the jobs report into a prepared speech in Indianapolis this morning. It's interesting to line them all up. First, McCain: "Today's job numbers are another clear indication of the economic challenges facing our country. With Americans hurting, we must act to strengthen our economy for families and small businesses. We must help Americans now through gas tax relief, which provides immediate relief from rising energy prices. We must also help those facing home foreclosure by enacting a HOME plan. At the same time, we need to act to lower taxes, streamline regulation, lower health care costs, ensure energy independence and open foreign markets. To help those who have lost jobs, we must focus on promoting effective worker re-training programs.
"The wrong course for our country would be to follow Senators Obama and Clinton and their siren songs of higher taxes, bigger government, greater isolationism and a government-run health care system."
Mind you, the new numbers show fewer people out of work than analysts expected, and the unemployment rate fell a tick from 5.1% in March to 5% in April ...
Read more John McCain, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama talk jobs »
The fact that ever-red Indiana is playing such an important role in the Democratic presidential race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama is its own wonderful irony.
One of the keys to who will win Indiana will be the turnout of the vote in Marion County, the state's largest and one of few with a substantial African-American population.
So we turn to Brendan O'Shaughnessy of the Indianapolis Star for this take this morning: With nearly twice as many Hoosiers voting early as did four years ago, officials say voters in Marion County are requesting Democratic ballots 3-to-1 over Republican ones so far.
Spurred by intense interest in the Democratic presidential race, more than 10,000 people per day have been casting early ballots this week across the state. The more than 113,000 votes counted through noon on Thursday easily surpassed the 57,000 absentee votes from the previous presidential primary, in 2004.
Marion County Clerk Beth White said the nearly 9,000 people who have voted early already outpace recent elections, and she expects it ...
* Not "Indianans," as this read initially. We can take a hint (see Comments section).
Read more Spurred by Clinton/Obama battle, Hoosiers* voting early and often »
Every presidential campaign wants to turn its candidate into a likable human being, someone you wouldn't mind palling around with if you were a multimillionaire politician who travels on chartered jets and in armored SUVs driven by unsmiling Secret Service agents packing serious heat.
One way to do this is to plop the candidate onto TV shows with Ellen and Oprah and Tyra and the chatty gals over at "The View," who don't always all talk at once. Another way to reveal the human side is to dispatch a spouse to the same venues, unless the spouse's name is Bill.
Last fall we learned from Michelle Obama that Barack tends to leave his socks and underwear around the house and doesn't s mell too great first thing in the morning. Thanks for that.
Cindy McCain looked very comfortable last week with Barbara and Whoopi and Elisabeth and the woman whose parents named her Joy as a sarcastic joke on the world. So this week John McCain's campaign sent Cindy off to "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno" to win the millions of hearts of those sleepy American voters about to go to bed six months before the election.
She did get in that her husband is so healthy he's going to hike the Grand Canyon again this summer, which only makes him insane. But in the course of that one single appearance the Arizona politician's wife also revealed:
- that her 71-year-old husband is "not the best of drivers," so she takes the wheel most times.
- that when they met at a party, each lied about their age, McCain subtracting four years and Cindy adding four. And neither discovered the real 17-year difference until a newspaper published details from their marriage license.
- that at that same party the Navy flier kind of followed her -- except she used the word "chased" -- around the hors d'oeuvre table and the possible future first lady thought to herself, "This guy's kind of weird."
Next week the McCain campaign should get Cindy on "The Dog Whisperer" and she can describe putting their longtime pet down.
--Andrew Malcolm Photo Credit: Associated Press
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