Gallup has some good news and some really bad news for President Obama

Finally, some good news to please President Obama in a new Gallup Poll.

The survey finds that more Americans still identify themselves as Democrats (31%) than call themselves Republicans.

Now, the bad news:

That 31% ties the lowest annual average of Democrats since 1988, when fellow Harvard Law alum Michael Dukakis got thumped by the first Bush to become president.  

 In fact, in the 717 days since Beyonce sang "Moon River" or something to this dancing Democrat, the percentage of Americans identifying as members of his party has declined five points, or almost 14 percent, from where it was. No wonder he smokes cigarettes.

Worse, Gallup finds that the percentage of Democratic-identifiers has fallen to where it's now only two points above (whisper) Republicans.

Additionally, things have gone so well changing the harsh partisan tone of Washington, as Obama promised, that more folks are fleeing into calling themselves "independents" (38%). That's what Americans do when they're too embarrassed to say what party they secretly favor.

People can only speculate on the mysterious reasons for the Dem decline -- high....

Sunday shows: Rand Paul, Perry, Ryan, Bayh, Steele

ABC's "This Week with Christiane Amanpour": Sen-elect Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.), Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.), George Will, David Stockman, John Podesta and Amy Walter.

Bloomberg's "Political Capital" with Al Hunt: Michael Steele, chairman of the Republican National Committee.

CBS' "Face the Nation" with Bob Schieffer: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.).

CNN's "GPS" with Fareed Zakaria: Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak.

CNN's "State of the Union" with Candy Crowley: Gov. Rick Perry (R-Texas), Sen.-elect Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) and Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) with Mike Duffy and Karen Tumulty.

"Fox News Sunday" with Chris Wallace: Incoming House leaders Reps. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), Eric Cantor (R-Va.) and Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) with panel of Brit Hume, Bill Kristol, Mara Liasson and Juan Williams.

NBC's "Meet the Press" with David Gregory: Gov. Chris Christie (R-N.J.) and Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) with Marc Morial, Mike Murphy and Anita Dunn.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photo: Ed Reinke / Associated Press (Rand Paul).

Howard Dean's surprise presidential announcement

Howard Dean is not running for president.

A spokeswoman for the former chairman of the Democratic National Committee says that Dean 100% supports President Obama in 2012 and "has repeatedly said so publicly."

After all, why out of the blue would a former New England governor and liberal Democrat who was fired from his DNC job and denied a coveted Cabinet position hold any ill feelings toward the 44th president who arranged that? Dean should also publicly deny he has a temper, clear that up, too.

Joe Biden has already announced that he will be the Democrats' 2012 VP candidate. So the assumption is, of course, that Obama will accept Joe's partnership offer and seek at least one additional term, as is the custom for Chicago Democrats.

Remember back in 1966 everyone knew Democratic President Lyndon Johnson was a surefire re-nominee two years later? Faced with an unpopular foreign war, mounting....

Facebook predicts election results? We're not so sure

Facebook’s U.S. Politics page released a postelection study Wednesday that indicated three-quarters of the politicians with the most Facebook fans won their respective races for House, Senate and governorships. 

That’s perhaps unsurprising, but leaves much open to question. Especially any claim that behavior in online forums in any way can be be used to predict real-world voting habits. 

Out of 98 races tracked, some 69 candidates with the most Facebook fans won, while 24 candidates with the most Facebook fans lost. About five races are too close to call. 

Some 28 out of the 34 Senate races where results have been finalized -- or 82% --  were won by the candidate with more Facebook fans, with three races still to call.  

But three of the night’s most high-profile losers, California’s Meg Whitman,  Delaware’s Christine O’Donnell and Texas’ Bill White, each had Facebook fan totals that surpassed their opponents by a factor of three. It’s also hardly a triumphant night for President Obama, who has the most ...

'I'm not recommending for every future president that they take a shellacking like I did last night': Obama

Transcript of President Obama's news conference, Nov. 3, 2010, as provided by the White House

THE PRESIDENT: Good afternoon, everybody.  Last night I had a chance to speak to the leaders of the House and the Senate and reached out to those who had both won and lost in both parties.  I told John Boehner and Mitch McConnell that I look forward to working with them.  And I thanked Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid for their extraordinary leadership over the last two years.

After what I'm sure was a long night for a lot of you -- and needless to say it was for me -- I can tell you that some election nights are more fun than others.  Some are exhilarating; some are humbling.  But every election, regardless of who wins and who loses, is a reminder that in our democracy, power rests not with those of us in elected office, but with the people we have the privilege to serve.

Over the last few months I've had the opportunity to travel around the country and meet people where they live and where they work, from backyards to factory floors. I did some talking, but mostly I....

Who's giving props to who? DeMint, Huckabee, Boehner tweet congrats [Updated]

 (This post will be updated throughout the night)

Schwarzenegger (California) Just called to congratulate @JerryBrown2010. Looking forward to Maria & me getting together w/ him & Anne to talk abt a smooth transition.

johnboehner Congratulations to @WebsterCongress on his victory in #fl08!

johnboehner Congratulations to @RobertHurt on his victory in #va05!

johnboehner Congratulations to @SandyAdams4FL24 on her victory in #fl24!

JohnKerry (Massachusetts) harry reid!!!

timpawlenty (Minnesota) Congrats to @MarcoRubio - a transformative leader for a new generation. #2010 #election

timpawlenty Congrats to @electadam @robportman @Steve_Stivers @frankguinta @ayotte2010 @burrforsenate @stevechabot #2010 #Election

villaraigosa (Los Angeles)  Great news! RT @HamiltonSarah: LA Times calling CA Senate race for Barbara Boxer!

JimDeMint (South Carolina): Congrats to Marco Rubio. He knows America is exceptional and he's passionate about the principles of freedom. http://bit.ly/aH9YhI

JimDeMint Congrats to Rand Paul. Voters in KY said no to pork-barrel politics and sent an outstanding leader to the Senate. http://bit.ly/cndIKE

GovMikeHuckabee (Arkansas) Congrats to @MarlinStutzman on your win this evening! Indiana wins!

GovMikeHuckabee Congratulations to Huck PAC endorsed candidates Rich Nugent and Steve Southerland on their victories tonight.

GovMikeHuckabee Congratulations to @robportman and @DrRandPaul!

GovMikeHuckabee Congrats to @Boozman4AR! Arkansas wins!

GovMikeHuckabee Good friend Gov. John Hoeven wins his US Senate seat. Congratulations John!

OrrinHatch (Utah) RT @OrrinPAC: Congratulations @MarcoRubio, @Ayotte2010 and @RoyBlunt on your victories tonight. #FLsen #NHsen #MOsen

OrrinHatch  RT @OrrinPAC: Congratulations @Boozman4AR, @JimDeMint and @MoranForKansas on your victories tonight. #ARsen #SCsen #KSsen

Nan Hayworth (New York) Marco Rubio coasts in FL SEN! The Tea Party train is rolling now!

Nan Hayworth John Hoeven in ND chalks up 3rd GOP Senate pickup!

Kevin McCarthy (California) Congrats to Robert Hurt in VA-5 and Morgan Griffith in VA-9 on your victories!

Kevin McCarthy Congrats to Todd Young in IN-9 on his victory!

Rob McKenna (Washington) Congratulations to my friend Senator-elect Kelly Ayotte on her victory in New Hampshire tonight!

-- Craig Howie

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Image credit: James Edward Bates/Biloxi Sun Herald/MCT

 

Christine O'Donnell, Meg Whitman, Jerry Brown lead social-media chatter in run-up to midterms

Which politician is dominating chatter on the social-media networks in the run-up to the mid-terms, now just five days away? 

Surprise: It’s Christine O’Donnell.  

And though Delaware senate candidate O’Donnell trails opponent Chris Coons markedly in real-world opinion polls, her outlandish statements on the 1st Amendment, witchcraft and masturbation have generated online publicity that even California’s Meg Whitman can’t buy. 

It’s important to preface the latest online study on social-media trends by marketing firm Alterian by noting that voters’ behavior online bears little resemblance to real-world activity. We’ve noted before the wide disparity between gubernatorial candidate Whitman’s number of Facebook followers and her opponent Jerry Brown’s -- a nearly 75,000 difference -- yet Whitman still trails Brown in the latest polls of likely voters by a wide and increasing margin. 

The social-media study tracked online comments, or “chatter,” on senate races in Illinois, California, Florida, Delaware, Connecticut, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania; and gubernatorial races in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Massachusetts, Texas, Pennsylvania and New York.  The study gleaned its results from blogs, social media sites, mainstream media comments pages and online message boards. 

The data were collected from Sept. 18 to Oct. 25. The volume of traffic increased steadily as the elections neared, with a decrease in “chatter” at the weekends.

In number of  mentions of senate candidates, O’Donnell  of Delaware led nearest candidate ...

How low will he go? Obama approval hits yet another bottom and 54% now say, 'No second term'

It's too late to back out now because President Obama is already racking up frequent flier miles on his Western campaign swing, allegedly to help out embattled Democratic senators.

But a new Gallup Poll out this morning puts the top Democrat himself at his lowest approval rating ever and finds most Americans do not want the Real Good Talker to have a second term.

Other than that, Obama should be a real help to Washington's embattled Patty Murray today and Nevada's embattled Harry Reid and California's embattled Barbara Boxer later, trying to salvage the large Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress.

The new survey reveals that the more Americans get to know this guy, the less they like him. His ...

Social media wrap: California watchdog recommends Internet political campaign regulations

Meg Whitman and Jerry Brown should take note, as should Barbara Boxer and Carly Fiorina. Arnold Schwarzenegger, meanwhile, probably has little to fear (other than the looming specter of attempting to sign a budget before he’s termed out of the governor’s office).

Politicians nationwide who increasingly turn to Twitter, Facebook and YouTube to complement their traditional media campaigns also should pay attention: A California political watchdog group on Monday released a report that says standards that applied to “old media” campaigns also should hold true for new-media activity.

Top issue for the state’s Fair Political Practices Commission is likely to concern disclosure – i.e.,  has someone been paid to tweet or post to Facebook on behalf of the politicians or their fund-raising groups? Bloggers and independent social-media users, the report recommends, will not be targets (unless they are paid by a politically affiliated group up to a certain threshold).

The commission basically recommends that politicians’ Internet-based campaign literature stick to the same rules that  regulate slate mailers, direct-mail fliers and certain advertisements. It also suggests an update to California’s 36-year-old Political Reform Act, or PRA, is needed to include hitherto unthought-of technologies like the interwebs. 

And cast in the light of the great success, er, of campaign finance regulation in states and nationwide in the past and California’s sterling record, er, in enacting successful political initiatives, the recommendations may turn out to be toothless for this year’s elections at least.

But what does it add to simmering debates ...

Sunday shows: Holder, Netanyahu, Richardson, Bair

ABC: "This Week" with Jake Tapper: Obama advisor David Axelrod; Reps. Brian Bilbray (R-Carlsbad) and Luis V. Gutierrez (D-Ill.); George Will; Ruth Marcus; Reihan Salam; and Ron Brownstein.

Bloomberg: "Political Capital" with Al Hunt: Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. chairwoman Sheila Bair.

CBS: "Face the Nation with Bob Schieffer": U.S. Atty. Gen. Eric Holder.

CNN: "Fareed Zakaria GPS": George Osborne, British chancellor of the exchequer, and Anjem Choudary, leader of Islam4UK.

CNN: "State of the Union" with Candy Crowley: Axelrod, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz.) and Kenneth Feinberg, gulf oil spill claims administrator.

Fox News: "Fox News Sunday" with Chris Wallace: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) and Axelrod with a panel of Brit Hume, Bill Kristol, Juan Williams and Mara Liasson.

NBC: "Meet the Press" with David Gregory: Obama Press Secretary Robert Gibbs with GOP political strategist Ed Gillespie, former U.S. Rep. Harold Ford Jr. of Tennessee, MSNBC commentator Rachel Maddow, and New York Times columnist David Brooks.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Why wait until Sunday for politics? Click here for Twitter alerts of each new Ticket item. Or follow us @latimestot.  Our Facebook Like page is over here. And, btw, we're available on Kindle now with a free two-week trial.

Photo: Kenneth Feinberg. Credit: Associated Press