Tuesday election results at a glance: Christie; McDonnell; Owens over Hoffman

Here's a quick summary of election results from around the country tonight:

Virginia governor -- Republican Bob McDonnell. Also Republican lieutenant governor and attorney general. (See video below). GOP also does well in House of Delegate races.

New Jersey governor -- Republican Christopher Christie.

New York City mayor -- Michael Bloomberg, Independent (though a closer race than expected).

St. Petersburg mayor -- Bill Foster, Republican.

Detroit mayor -- Democrat Dave Bing reelected.

Maine gay marriage measure repeals law that would have allowed such unions.

New York 23rd Congressional District -- Democrat Bill Owens beat Conservative Doug Hoffman, adding one more seat to the Democratic House majority.

California's 10th Congressional District -- Democrat John Garamendi held the East Bay Area district against Republican David Harmer and three minor candidates.

Ohio voters approved four urban casinos.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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A reminder: Most 'independent' voters aren't

When you think of an independent voter, you probably imagine a politically minded individual with no party affiliation, whose unbiased opinions will swing from right to left depending on convincing arguments and logical evaluation.

Think again.

According to online research magazine Miller-McCune, most "independents" don't fit the ideal definition of an independent-minded voter.

"There are an awful lot of people who call themselves independent because it's fashionable in some circles," Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, told Miller-McCune. "But their voting behavior is predictable. They are not swing voters."

The news media often follow the ebb and flow of so-called independents' voting habits, and report on them as if they reflect a shift in popular opinion.

The argument against the existence of the unbiased independent is hardly new. For example, the authors of ...

Is Las Vegas' famously flamboyant mayor going to run for governor?

Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman -- former mob lawyer, Bombay Sapphire pitchman and self-proclaimed "Happiest Mayor on Earth" -- will be termed out in 2011.

His next role: Gov. Goodman?

The Las Vegas Review-Journal reported last week that Goodman is mulling an independent bid -- and has consulted none other than former Minnesota Gov. Jesse "The Body" Ventura (the Happiest Pro Wrestler-Turned-Governor On Earth).

As with many things -- including telling youngsters that, were he stranded on an island, he’d want a bottle of gin -- Goodman’s seriousness is hard to determine. He’s publicly talked about a gubernatorial bid for months and even suggested that his wife, Carolyn, take over his old office at City Hall. (It’s unclear whether she would keep the faux horse’s head.)

Republican Gov. Jim Gibbons is so unpopular that he’s already drawn two primary challengers. And the Democrats expected to run -- Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley and Rory Reid, Clark County commissioner and son of the U.S. Senate majority leader — might cannibalize each other before the general election.

But Goodman has never mounted a statewide campaign. And does he truly want to 1) move from Sin City to Carson City and 2) oversee a potentially vicious budget war during the next legislative session?

Maybe he should talk to Arnold (formerly the Happiest Terminator-turned-Governor on Earth) Schwarzenegger.

-- Ashley Powers

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Photo: Oscar Goodman at his office. Credit: Luis Sinco/Los Angeles Times

Groundhog bites N.Y. Mayor Bloomberg, signals early arrival of pain

So everyone was gathered there on Staten Island for the annual Feb. 2 photo stupidity of whether the captive groundhog sees his shadow or not.

Good thing there's no economic or budgetary crisis in New York City or the nation to distract from such guff.

So Mayor Michael Bloomberg, the one-time-Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-independent, was presiding along with Charles G. Hogg, the zoo's live groundhog prop, party affiliation unknown.

Bloomberg picked up the groundhog and enthusiastically waved it on high for the crowd to see, which may not have been what the awakening creature had in mind.

Then, according to a report by Bloomberg's own Bloomberg news, Bloomberg teased the animal with a cob of corn, giving the groundhog a nibble and jerking it away, then offering it again and yanking it away. Lotsa fun.

That's when Charles G. Hogg bit the billionaire. On the left index finger. Right through the official mayoral glove. Drew blood.

Sporting a bandage later, the mayor described his furry attacker as "a terrorist rodent that might very well have been trained by al-Qaeda in Afghanistan." An embarrassed joke that may not seem as funny within New York City as without.

--Andrew Malcolm

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Photo credit: Spencer T. Tucker / Mayor's Office via Associated Press

Is there any doubt that Barack Obama will carry California? No

More than a million Californians have registered to vote since Sept. 5, pushing the state’s total to 17.3 million registered voters--the bulk of them, by far, Democrats.

In a statement issued Friday, California Secretary of State Debra Bowen reported that the number of  Democrats increased to 7.683 million, or 44% of the state’s registered voters.

That was an increase of 600,000 voters from May. It also reflects a gain over 2004, when there were 7.1 million Democrats, accounting for 43% of the state’s voters.

Overall, 74.56% of California's eligible voters are registered, a slight drop from the 75% four years ago, and down from 80.21% in 1996.

In the latest count, the number of Republicans fell to 5.42 million, or 31.37% of the state's electorate, down from 5.7 million four years earlier, Bowen said.

The Republicans’ loss was the gain of nonpartisans.

The number of California voters who declined to state a party preference remains the fastest-rising segment. There are now 3.44 million decline-to-state voters, or 19.9% of the electorate. That is up from 2.9 million and 17.67% in 2004.

The long-term trend is less than rosy for political parties. In 1996, 11.3% of the voters declined to state a party preference, while 47.2% were Democrats and 36.4% were Republicans.

In Los Angeles County, Democrats currently hold a 51.8%-24.06% edge over Republicans.

In Orange County, Republicans hold a 44.4%-31.82% edge over Democrats.

Alameda County is the most heavily Democratic county, with 57.59% Democratic. Lassen County in far Northern California has the smallest Democratic registration, at 28.66%.

--Dan Morain

To Barack Obama's delight, Swift Boat-like groups are playing a diminished role in 2008

With a few notable exceptions, the independent campaign ads that came to define the 2004 campaign -- notably those from Swift Boat Veterans for Truth -- have played a much less prominent role in campaign '08.

Perhaps it’s because the Federal Election Commission levied fines against many of the so-called 527 groups that became prominent in 2004 and 2006.

And Barack Obama’s lawyers have made a practice of aggressively challenging conservative groups that attack their candidate. Independent election law attorneys have warned that the fines could be much stiffer for malfeasance, given precedents that were established last year.

The amount raised by such groups playing on the federal and state levels remains impressive. But it has dipped, down to $407 million from $470 million in 2004, according to the latest count by Times researcher Maloy Moore and data analyst Sandra Poindexter.

While conservatives are much less active, organized labor is using the groups heavily. They are tailor-made for unions, which raise huge amounts of small donations from hundreds of thousands of donors.

In the election, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees and Service Employees International Union are the two biggest spenders on 527 groups -- $30.9 million by AFSCME and $26.3 million by SEIU. Much of it is being used to pummel John McCain.

A handful of individuals also are playing big, but not as big as in years past.

Wall Street billionaire George Soros has given $4.9 million in this election cycle, down from $18.4 million four years ago.

Hollywood producer Stephen Bing has spent $5.08 million on some of the same liberal organizations. He too has fallen off, from $13.4 million in 2004.

On the conservative side, Sheldon Adelson, billionaire chairman of the Las Vegas Sands, has shelled out $5.25 million, giving much of the funding for American Solutions for Winning the Future, a group founded by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

-- Dan Morain

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Crucial swing voters for McCain and Obama explained, sort of

As everyone who's ever followed presidential politics knows, this is about the time of each autumnal general election campaign when the media, bored with the running horserace story, starts looking for obscure nooks and crannies to explore.

One of the all-time favorites is the "swing voters," those unidentified people who are presumably uncommitted but can allegedly swing the election one way or the other by their late decisionmaking. The beauty for media people of talking about these faceless swing voters is that once everyone who's going to vote actually votes, there are by definition no more swing voters.

So who can contradict a stupid media report read four weeks before the election and already long-forgotten? It's the perfect waste of time, leaving no evidence to trace back.

So "The Daily Show" has examined this presently powerful political group.

--Andrew Malcolm

Here's the report:

With an appreciative hat tip to our pal James Oliphant over at the Swamp.

Back in Alaska, Sarah Palin's poll ratings tumble a bit

Sarah Palin may be the darling of the United Nations, but back home in Alaska, the bloom on the state rose is fading a bit.

New poll numbers show the Alaska governor's approval rating has taken its biggest hit since her election in 2006. "The Honeymoon Is Coming to an End," Ivan Moore Research of Anchorage said in its report.

True, Palin's approval rating of 68% surely must cause envy among President Bush (check out his numbers here) and members of Congress (go here).

But the new figure for Palin is down from a high of 82% in January, which she replicated in the days following her surprise selection Aug. 29 as John McCain's running mate.

Also, her disapproval rating in the survey of 500 likely voters conducted Saturday through Monday was at 27% -- double what it was at the beginning of the month. The survey's margin of error was plus or minus 4.4%.

Predictably, the biggest erosion in good feelings about Palin occurred among Alaskan Democrats. But there also was a measurable slip in her standing among independent/third-party voters.

Chalk it up to the bruising effects of a national campaign and all the harsh scrutiny that brings? Probably. And, Moore notes, lots of governors would be pretty happy with Palin's 68% approval mark.

That's "still pretty positive," he says. "But I suspect we've only caught the slump kind of halfway through here."

In other words, there may be more bad news awaiting Palin when she gets back home -- whenever that happens.

-- Kim Murphy

Barack Obama faces daunting hurdle, poll on race finds

When political scientists hash over the 2008 presidential election in the years to come, they will return -- time and again -- to race. Regardless of who wins, the results will be sifted, analyzed and sized up from every possible angle for evidence of the role racial attitudes did (or did not) play in the outcome.

A poll released over the weekend, which The Ticket mentioned briefly Sunday, gained much attention because it took a preemptive crack at probing this question. And here's the opening clause in the Associated Press story by Ron Fournier and Trevor Tompson: "Deep-seated racial misgivings could cost Barack Obama the White House if the election is close... ."

The article elaborated that according to a recent AP-Yahoo News poll, "More than a third of all white Democrats and independents -- voters Obama can't win the White House without -- agreed with at least....

Undecided over John McCain or Barack Obama? Maybe not

Our colleague Denise Gellene has an interesting story today on the minds of undecided voters, and a project by scientific researchers that suggests most undecideds really have made up their minds.

Researchers from Canada and Italy focused on a local political issue in Italy about the possible expansion of a U.S. military base, and discovered that 30 of the 33 self-described undecideds had already decided unconsciously one way or the other. The research (details are in Gellene's story) focused in the subjects' response time to questions that linked the proposal to a series of negative and positive words. They say they were able to predict the ultimate choice by the undecided with 70% accuracy.

And you think political polling calls are already annoying -- wait till they start playing the word association games over the phone at dinner.

-- Scott Martelle