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As Barack Obama and John McCain take their sweet time settling on running-mate choices, one result is that the net cast in the inevitable guessing game gets wider and wider.
As The Times' Doyle McManus aptly put it in a recent overview on the plethora of vice-presidential prospects: "Never in modern memory have so many eminent people been mentioned for a job that has been compared -- unfavorably -- to a bucket of warm spit."
In the spirit of such speculation, veteran political journalist Paul West this weekend spotlighted two possibilities -- one for Obama, the other for McCain -- who definitely would be surprise picks.
For the Democrats, West offered up Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island.
In a definite understatement, West writes that Reed "isn't flashy, and he wouldn't upstage the star." But here's the core of the case he makes for the lawmaker with virtually no national profile: "He's a Catholic with working-class roots (his father was a school janitor) and could enhance the ticket's appeal to those swing voters. He has expertise on issues at the center of the campaign debate: economics and the housing crisis.
"More important, he would offset Obama's lack of national security experience. Reed, 58, has a reputation as a serious thinker and is a respected voice on defense matters. He's a West Point graduate and Army Ranger with views that are right in line with Obama's. He voted against the 2002 Iraq war resolution and became an early critic of the way the war was fought while working to increase the size of the Army."
For the Republicans, West goes one better in the obscurity department -- dropping the little-known name of Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. He notes: "On a personal level, Huntsman and McCain both have adopted children from Asia. (Huntsman's are from China and India; McCain's is from Bangladesh.) Their moderate-conservative political views are in sync, and Huntsman has gone out of his way to praise McCain's stance on immigration reform."
West's complete piece, in which he also says that Bill Clinton's 1992 selection of Al Gore "is widely regarded by strategists in both parties as the best vice-presidential pick in at least 20 years," can be read on The Swamp blog.
--Don Frederick
It wasn't the sort of issue that John McCain (or Barack Obama) needed to prepare for Saturday in Washington when each courted Latino elected officials at their annual meeting. But Monday, at a McCain town hall meeting in Pipersville, Pa., a woman had a pointed question for the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, a query sparked by America's changing demographics.
 "Why, as an American, do I have to push a button to speak English or hear English?"
The audience, a sea of mostly white faces, erupted in deafening applause.
"I think you struck a nerve," said McCain, for whom this is a delicate issue, given his support in recent years of efforts to reform U.S. immigration law that included a "path to citizenship" for most illegal immigrants that was derided by its foes as "amnesty."
"I tell ya," continued the woman, "I really get ticked. I really do."
"I can tell," said McCain.
"And then you go into Lowe's," she continued, referring to the home improvement store, "and it says 'Entrada.' And every utility bill you got has got a foreign language on it."
Oh, and by the way, she added, would he autograph a copy of his book, a gift to her husband for his 71st birthday?
On immigration, McCain gave his now-standard reply, acknowledging ...
Read more John McCain gets put on the linguistic spot »
On this, the first anniversary of our Top of the Ticket blog, we are reminded of the mercurial, unpredictable nature of U.S. politics -- part of what makes what we do so fascinating.
Our goal -- one of us on the East Coast and the other on the far more important or at least less humid West Coast -- was to write about Campaign '08 virtually around the clock.
Our second-ever posting, 12 months ago today, previewed an upcoming L.A. Times/Bloomberg Poll; later in the day, we detailed the results of the nationwide survey. The findings were in line with other polls of the time.
In the Republican presidential race, which then seemed the most likely to last deep into the primary season, Rudy Giuliani was perched in first place. His lead wasn't overwhelming, but it was strong enough that he appeared certain to remain a major contender.
His liberal record on social issues loomed as an obvious liability within his party, but his tough-on-terrorism message was attracting substantial support from moderates and GOP-leaning independents.
His major headache among rivals last June was an as-yet-undeclared candidate who was riding a wave as the great conservative hope -- Fred Thompson. He ran a strong second in the poll.
Lagging far behind were John McCain and Mitt Romney, each barely with double-digit support. In our preview posting, we were especially scornful of McCain, noting sarcastically (and foolishly, as it turned out) that in the poll, he found himself "in heated competition with the 'Don't Know' category."
Meriting no mention from us was Mike Huckabee, one of several back-of-the-pack candidates barely earning any support across the country.
The Democratic race, at that point, seemed so much more cut-and-dried.
Hillary Clinton was the clear front-runner; Barack Obama was just as clearly ...
Read more Top of the Ticket, the start of Year Two »
San Diego usually is a fine place to be under any circumstances, but for a couple of days this July the political world will flock there for clues about one of the crucial questions in the John McCain-Barack Obama matchup: Whither the Latino vote?
The National Council of La Raza, a leading Latino civil rights and advocacy organization, announced today that both presidential contenders have accepted invitations to speak at its July 12-15 convention in San Diego. No details yet on when each will speak, but their appearances likely will be among the most important they make during the month.
For Obama, the mission is straightforward: Woo an ethnic group that is absolutely essential to his hopes of carrying several key states in November but which heavily supported his rival, Hillary Clinton, during the just-completed Democratic primary season.
Presumably his campaign already will be hard at work on this task before the La Raza get-together, but his speech will offer him a golden opportunity to try to connect with a voting bloc that so far has generally resisted his appeals.
McCain will face more of a balancing act when he takes center stage ...
Read more John McCain and Barack Obama each to address major Latino gathering »
Fox News Channel has released excerpts of Hillary Clinton's interview with Bill O'Reilly, before the airing tonight of the first segment of the talk (Part 2 broadcasts Thursday). Not surprisingly, the first topic spotlighted was the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
Here's the excerpt, which leaves it unclear whether she was addressing a specific Wright remark or the inflammatory tenor of many of his comments came after O'Reilly asked her: "You're an American citizen. I'm an American citizen. He's an American citizen, Rev. Wright. What do you think when you hear a fellow American citizen say that stuff about America? What do you think?" “Well, I take offense at it. I think it’s offensive and outrageous. And, you know, I’m going to express my opinion, others can express theirs. But, you know, it is -- it is part of, you know, just an atmosphere that we’re in today where all kinds of things are being said.
"And people have to, you know, decide what they believe. And I sure don’t believe the United States government was behind AIDS.”
It makes perfect sense for Clinton to condemn Wright, especially on the AIDS issue. We wonder, though, if at some point in the interview she cut Barack Obama the type of slack John McCain did on Tuesday.
Here's part of the quote McCain gave CNN on Tuesday: "I have made it very clear that I don't believe that Rev. Wright reflects the views of Sen. Obama, and I don't have anything more to say about it."
(Update: Clinton told O'Reilly that Obama "made his views clear, finally, and did what he had to do.")
Another Clinton excerpt seems to suggest ...
Read more Excerpts from Hillary Clinton's chat with Bill O'Reilly »
Much as Desi Arnaz often demanded of Lucille Ball on their famed sitcom, Barack Obama has some 'splainin to do.
Relative quiet on the political news front became anything but as word spread Friday of an item on the Huffington Post concerning comments Obama made at a private fundraiser Sunday in San Francisco. Blogger Mayhill Fowler was there with her tape recorder and, after setting up the payoff to her item with her own observations about Pennsylvania, related this quote from Obama as he sought to give his Bay Area crowd some perspective about a different part of the country: "You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing's replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. And it's not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."
Here's the entire post, which includes audio of Obama's mini-spiel. And that's the part that resonated -- and how.
Hillary Clinton campaign aides sought to stir up interest in it -- and then pounced when reports it started to seep into the mass media, clearly seeing the potential contretemps as ...
Read more Barack Obama's "small town" critique: Is this a game changer? »
Ever since it became clear, or semi-clear, that Arizona Sen. John McCain was not going to be bumped out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination by Rep. Ron Paul, The Ticket has received numerous comm ents from loyal readers wondering if the former POW was really a native-born American citizen.
And thus eligible to become president of these United States under the constitutional stipulation “No Person except a natural born Citizen … shall be eligible to the Office of President.”
Even the Big Guy, Gov. Ahnold from Austria, can't terminate that one.
The question arises because the 71-year-old McCain was born into a U.S. Navy family on-duty in the Panama Canal Zone, which seems kinda foreign to some folks, although it was under American control in 1936 when McCain first emerged.
Well, this just in from Washington and the mouth of the Cabinet secretary charged with enforcing federal immigration laws.
Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff was responding Wednesday to a question from Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy about McCain’s citizenship status.
“We've had some question on this committee to have a special law passed," said Leahy, who actually supports Democrat Sen. Barack Obama, "declaring that Senator McCain was born in the Panama Canal, that he meets the constitutional requirement to be president.
“I fully believe he does," Leahy continued. "I've never had any question in my mind that he meets our constitutional requirement.
“You're a former federal judge,” he said to Chertoff. “You're the head of the agency that executes federal immigration law. Do you have any doubt in your mind? I have none in mine. Do you have any doubt in your mind that he's constitutionally eligible to become president?”
Chertoff kept his answer brief: “My assumption and my understanding," he said, "is that if you were born of American parents, you are a natural-born American citizen.''
Case closed, it seems.
-- Matthew Hay Brown
Matthew Hay Brown writes for the Swamp of the Chicago Tribune Washington Bureau. Photo Credit: AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana
Just a few months ago, John McCain's White House hopes were barely on life support. The Republicans getting all the attention -- and the money -- included Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson; no one, it seemed, wanted to hear from the Arizona senator, whose campaign was almost broke (he fired many of his staff and flew on commercial flights by himself, in coach, to campaign appearances) and whose bipartisan work on legislation (including campaign finance reform and a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants) made him a pariah among the party's conservative base.
But in one of the most remarkable turnarounds in recent political history, McCain clinched the GOP presidential nomination last week. Now he's beginning another sort of campaign -- introducing himself to the American people not as the self-styled maverick on the Straight Talk Express, but as the presumptive leader of his party, hoping to knit its various skeins -- social conservatives, moderate pragmatists, immigration hard-liners, and so on -- into a tapestry that pictures him taking the oath of office on the Capitol steps in January.
To that end, he appeared Sunday on CBS' "60 Minutes" ...
Read more John McCain on '60 Minutes': Reintroducing himself, in a new role »
Our colleague Ashley Powers, the Times' Las Vegas bureau chief, spotted an item on the agenda Monday of a weeklong Laughlin, Nev., conference (beginning Saturday) that may be of interest to political junkies: "UFOs and the 2008 Election."
We've all heard the Dennis Kucinich jokes (in fact, we've made one or two ourselves) but a whole seminar devoted to UFOs and the election sets up a lot of possible punchlines. These folks are serious, though, so we'll be serious, too, which brings us to a later session on Monday that bears looking into.
In a seminar called "Confessions of a Turkish Ufologist," Farah Yurdozu will discuss the extraterrestrials who founded Turkey 5,000 years ago and who now live in New York City, obviously a key voting bloc there (and it would go a long way toward explaining Kramer, pre-meltdown). Topics include "how the aliens are watching and affecting the seat of world turmoil -- the Mid East -- right now, just as they have for thousands of years ... [and] evidence of how governments and institutions openly acknowledge our ties to a race from the star Sirius." Here we thought that was just a satellite radio company.
Yes, we mock, and we shouldn't. But we have to. If you go to the seminar at 2:30 p.m. Sunday, you'll probably learn why (something many of Ron Paul's Paulistas already believe): "Journalist and New York Times best-selling author Jim Marrs will bring conspiracy theories right up to date with compelling information about some of the greatest conspiracies prevalent today. Learn the inside scoop about the plots and intrigues that affect us all."
Nanu, nanu.
-- Scott Martelle
Much as we enjoy the occasional joke about Chuck Norris' toughness (i.e., "Some people wear Superman pajamas. Superman wears Chuck Norris pajamas"), he's got nothing on Arnold Schwarzenegger, who apparently is tough enough to move thousands of Ohio Democrats from Columbus to Cleveland.
It seems Columbus was in the running for next week's Ohio debate (where the unsecured Lake Erie border with Canada is not expected to be a dominant item, much to Lou Dobbs' regret; how do you fence that?). But "The Arnold" already had dibs on most of the hotel space. "The Arnold" in this case is the annual Arnold Sports Festival scheduled for later next week, and apparently there wasn't enough room in Columbus for Arnold and the Democrats. Our colleague Joe Mathews tells us that Arnold will be there in the flesh.
So the Feb. 26 debate is being held at Cleveland State University. And you have to pity poor Dennis Kucinich, who has represented the Cleveland area in the House of Representatives since 1997 and served as mayor of Cleveland in the 1970s. A presidential debate finally comes to him -- and he's out of the race and back running for reelection to his congressional seat.
-- Scott Martelle
Just as it's become increasingly clear that John McCain expects he'll be running against Barack Obama in the general election, so it is with the folks at the Republican National Committee.
Danny Diaz, one of the hard-working members of the RNC's communications staff, has been peppering the media with e-mails casting all sorts of aspersions at answers Obama has been giving during the debate tonight. Here are some sample headers: "Obama's Stance On Cuba Is Completely Inconsistent & Incoherent."
"Obama's Reckless Economic Policies Would Hurt The Economy."
"Obama Is Wrong On Key Immigration Issue."
These missives stacked up, without a single one targeting Hillary Clinton's answers. Finally, as the debate wound down, this one arrived: "Clinton's Pork-Barrel Hypocrisy."
Still, who would have ever thought an important arm of the GOP would treat her as largely irrelevant?
-- Don Frederick
The overall tenor of the first half of tonight's much-anticipated Democratic debate was summed up by Barack Obama's first comment as he followed Hillary Clinton in answering a question on immigration policy: "Well, this is an area where Sen. Clinton and I almost entirely agree."
Obama also became more spirited in his responses as the immigration issue was hashed over, getting in a well-received dig at the No Child Left Behind education program.
As the debate's second half began, questioner John King launched an effort to change that, asking Clinton about her increasing effort to depict Obama as more style than substance. And the effort succeeded as the issue of plagiarism -- i.e., Obama's recent use of speech lines first used by one of his staunch supporters, Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick -- was raised.
Obama dismissed the flap as part of the campaign's "silly season."
But Clinton wanted to engage on the dispute, using a line that obviously had been cooked up in advance.
Lifting "whole passages" from someone else's speech, she said, isn't "change you can believe in" (one of Obama's patented lines) but "change you can Xerox."
The barb didn't play well, at least with those in the debate hall -- it sparked some boos and hisses.
-- Don Frederick
After opening statements in which both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama invoked Barbara Jordan -- an icon in Texas politics, especially for women and blacks -- tonight's Democratic debate in Austin opened with a topical question, but one more pressing to Floridians than Lone Star State voters.
The two candidates were asked if they would be willing to sit down and chat with the expected new leader of Cuba, Raul Castro. The result was a flashback to a debate last year -- back when the stage was crowded with many more White House contenders -- that focused a lot of attention on Obama.
Clinton responded first, saying she would work to create momentum that might lead to a presidential visit with Castro, but only if there was evidence that the Cuban government was taking steps toward democracy.
Obama, as he did at the forum months ago, said he would be willing to meet with Castro and other leaders of rogue nations "without preconditions." But he also he stressed that he agreed with Clinton "that there has to be preparation" for such summits, a vague statement but one that served to mute any spirited exchange over the issue.
All in all, a tame start.
Few policy differences surfaced as they went on to two other topics -- the economy and immigration.
But a clear difference emerged in style. Clinton offered her answers with an enthusiasm and verve that hasn't always been evident from her on the stump of late. Obama was more subdued, in part, perhaps, because he's afflicted with a cold. A bit of bad luck for him there.
-- Don Frederick
California is so important to the faltering presidential campaign of Republican Mitt Romney that on the eve of Super Tuesday, the 60-year-old former governor flew all the way across the United States to give a 10-minute speech in Long Beach tonight.
He got at least one vote for his effort.
Then he got back on his chartered plane and is flying overnight now to West Virginia to address the state GOP convention Tuesday morning.
Romney told hundreds of raucous supporters -- and The Times' Seema Mehta -- in a chilly airport hangar that he feels a ...
Read more Breaking News: Mitt Romney makes last stab at California »
Results from Florida this evening will likely bring some clarity to the Republican presidential race. And perhaps not a moment too soon, given results from several questions in the recent nationwide L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll that highlighted how the candidates generally had failed to establish a strong, clear persona among the GOP electorate.
The survey questions asked Republican-inclined voters to single out -- regardless of whom they favored for the party's nomination -- the White House contender they thought would perform best on specific issues.
The issues: Social concerns (such as abortion and gay rights), achieving "change" in Washington, the economy, tax policy, foreign policy and illegal immigration.
The findings: Only on one front -- foreign policy -- was any candidate named by more than roughly a quarter of those polled.
John McCain easily led, with 39%, as the candidate with the greatest capabilities in foreign policy. "Not sure" ranked second with 16% -- a finding that underscored the apparent failure of Rudy Giuliani's message to resonate. He offered himself as the candidate best able to combat terrorism, yet only ...
Read more Identity lacking among GOP candidates »
With Fred Thompson out of the presidential race, who's a self-respecting conservative to go for? Could it be, maybe, perhaps, a certain Republican-libertarian from Texas?
That's one question perplexing California state Sen. Tom McClintock, possibly the second-most-famous California Republican currently in office after Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
McClintock created a stir two months when he endorsed Thompson’s presidential candidacy. Having run for governor, lieutenant governor and state controller, McClintock has shown that while he has not won a statewide contest, he can win GOP primaries, which conservatives tend to dominate. So heading into the Feb. 5 primary, McClintock’s endorsement is seen as important in California.
Now McClintock is mulling his choices. And it comes down to the basics: "Who will respect our Constitution, defend our borders, and reduce the burdens of government on our people?" McClintock said Thursday in Sacramento as the Senate wrapped up its week. "If I were to vote today, I probably would be casting a vote for Ron Paul. I’m not voting today."
Why Paul?
"I do believe he will respect our Constitu-" McClintock said, then stopped midthought. "I don’t want to go too far. I am still looking."
Why not former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney? "I want somebody with a consistent record," McClintock said. "I want someone who didn’t have to go through a political epiphany the day before he announced his candidacy."
-- Dan Morain
A group dedicated to fighting illegal immigration today launched an Internet effort to cajole one of the most vocal and well-known advocates of that cause -- CNN's Lou Dobbs -- into the presidential race as an independent.
The website (found here) was set up by the Americans for Legal Immigration Political Action Committee (ALIPAC), headed by North Carolina resident William Gheen. He was prominently featured in a recent Wall Street Journal article that summed up speculation about a Dobbs run -- and served to add fuel to such talk.
The 62-year-old Dobbs, who over the years evolved from a fairly traditional financial correspondent for CNN to a full-throated advocate of economic populism, told the Journal he wasn't planning on a White House bid, saying he did not have either "the personality or nature to be a politician."
But then, in the best tradition of politics, he left the door open ...
Read more Draft Lou Dobbs effort begun »
Manchester, N.H. -- Mitt Romney took his fair share of abuse at Saturday night's debate among the Republican presidential candidates (and may get heaped upon again at tonight's nationally televised forum). So perhaps it was only natural that today -- during his one public rally -- he decried what he characterized as "the partisanship and the bickering and the score-settling and the insult-hurling" that marks politics in Washington.
"I believe it's high time for someone to go to Washington who's focused on helping the people rather than just helping his or her party," Romney said to applause.
He made his remarks in Nashua, N.H., to a crowd of several hundred in a school cafeteria and, The Times' Michael Finnegan reports, he continued to press his new effort to portray John McCain as a Washington insider (which would be a bit of a makeover for his rival in the GOP race, who often charts his own course in the nation's capital).
Romney described McCain and another Republican opponent, former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee, as "the guys who've been around forever." (True enough for McCain; he first went to Congress in 1983. Thompson, though, served only about eight years and did not seek reelection in 2002; perhaps Romney was referring to the ubiquity of "Law & Order" reruns.)
Romney's line of attack ...
Read more Romney offers himself as a D.C. outsider »
John McCain's antipathy for Mitt Romney -- a distaste that goes beyond the normal bristling between highly competitive presidential candidates -- has been obvious for some time.
Back in the spring, even as his own campaign was short-circuiting, McCain barbs sparked by Romney's multiple position reversals carried particular venom. And last month, during the Republican YouTube debate, McCain's disdain for and disgust with Romney as they sparred over waterboarding -- as in, is it torture? -- was palpable. Here's a memory refresher (and note how McCain avoids even looking in his rival's direction).
On Friday, the chill between the two deepened.
As the McCain crew roused itself in New Hampshire, where its man has crept up in most polls, Romney was ready with a new television ad targeting him. After the spot's voiceover narrator praises McCain (calling him "an honorable man"), he then seeks to bury him, scolding the Arizona senator ...
Read more Romney-McCain sniping intensifies »
Well, it may have something to do with John McCain's comeback rise in the New Hampshire polls and his desire to close in even closer on the tail of Republican presidential opponent Mitt Romney, but the former Navy pilot is letting loose with however many barrels he's got left to fire in those old wings.
Today, under the senator's own name, his campaign released a rather strong statement, usually reserved for aides to keep the candidate cleaner and above the dirty ground fighting. Here's what McCain said:
"I know something about tailspins, and it's pretty clear Mitt Romney is in one. It's disappointing that he would launch desperate, flailing and false attacks in an attempt to maintain relevance. As the Union Leader said today, New Hampshire voters just aren't buying his act, and these latest attacks won't help him."
Earlier today the McCain camp issued a lengthy list of old Romney statements on immigration, once perceived as a McCain weak spot among conservatives who did not like his support of so-called amnesty for illegal immigrants last spring. But now McCain is on the offensive, citing how Romney appeared to endorse similar positions in numerous news articles from the past. Echoes of the old flip-flop attacks.
And in case you missed it, here's Sunday's opening shot on Romney from the McCain camp by the senator's advisor (and frequent co-author) Mark Salter, issued just before the Christmas truce went into effect:
"Welcome to Mitt Romney's bizarro world, in which everyone is guilty of his sins. He didn't support Ronald Reagan. He didn't support President Bush's tax cuts. He raised taxes in Massachusetts by $700 million. He knows John McCain is gaining on him so he does what any small varmint gun totin', civil rights marching, NRA-endorsed fantasy candidate would do: He questions someone else's credibility. New Hampshire is on to you, Mitt. Give it a rest. It's Christmas."
Other than that, the two are getting along just fine as the Iowa caucus (Jan. 3) and New Hampshire primary (Jan. 8) near.
-- Andrew Malcolm
You may remember among the really major news stories of Wednesday was the minor announcement by Republican presidential candidate Tom Tancredo that he would have a major announcement today in Des Moines.
Once everyone was reminded of who Tom Tancredo was -- the six-term Colorado House member who's really, really against illegal immigration -- there was immediate speculation that he was surrendering to political realities or, put another way, quitting the race for the GOP nomination.
Today in Des Moines, The Times' ubiquitous Maria LaGanga reports, at what was probably the biggest turnout for a Tancredo press conference of his entire campaign, the diminutive representative confirmed the end of his candidacy, which follows the previous departures of James Gilmore, Tommy Thompson and Sam Brownback.
His departure leaves the Republican field at seven -- two representatives -- Duncan Hunter and Ron Paul; one senator -- John McCain; and several former somethings -- Sen. Fred Thompson, Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Govs. Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee.
But Tancredo framed the event as a way to thank his loyal staff and get "everyone together for a surprise party...Thanks for coming." Today also happened to be Tancredo's 62d birthday, coming just two weeks before the Iowa caucuses.
Oh, and as for the GOP race itself? Tancredo added that as he was stepping down, he was throwing his inconsiderable support behind former Massachusetts Gov. Romney. Tancredo said Romney has the best track record on the issue that the Coloradan holds dearest: “the perilous consequences of massive uncontrolled illegal immigration.” And he later told Fox News Romney's "got the best shot."
Although Tancredo's bid barely registered in the polls, he said Thursday that it was worth it because, in all modesty, he felt he'd changed the shape of the contest itself.
“Just this month," Tancredo said, "the Economist, the New Yorker, the Wall Street Journal and even the New York Times have grudgingly accredited my campaign with forcing the issue of immigration to the forefront of the national stage.”
Not only that, he said, but he'd forced “nearly every Republican Presidential candidate to commit themselves to an immigration plan that calls for securing our borders and enforcing our immigration laws.”
What Tancredo did not mention, of course, was that being seen on national TV debates didn't hurt his exposure and statewide name recognition back home in Colorado, where he's fully expected to run for the vacant Senate seat next year. See how everything is connected?
--Andrew Malcolm
(UPDATE: Quoting a person close to Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado, the Associated Press reported late this afternoon that the Colorado representative would announce his withdrawal from the Republican race at an Iowa news conference Thursday.
Tancredo based his long-shot candidacy on his opposition to illegal immigration. He ran hard-hitting ads linking lax border security to terrorist attacks and other crime. But the six-term representative has consistently polled at the back of the Republican pack. He has announced his retirement from the House but hinted at a run for Colorado's open Senate seat next year.
Tancredo's departure reduces the GOP field to seven candidates.)
We had presumed that under-financed and infrequently written-about Tancredo would hang around the Republican presidential race, taking advantage of debate invitations to press his one-note candidacy. But the House member from Colorado may have a surprise for us.
His campaign has announced that he's got a "major announcement" to make Thursday in Des Moines (noon, PST) and it's hard to imagine that he would be cheeky enough to apply that label to anything other than officially ending his White House bid (in practical terms, it never really began).
Tancredo's "major announcement" will coincide with his 62nd birthday, so maybe he's detailing some party plans. If, instead, he's folding his presidential tent, he will no doubt decamp proudly, proclaiming that his relentless focus on what he asserts are the negative effects of immigration -- both illegal and legal -- dramatically shaped the dialogue among other GOP candidates.
We've gotten a taste of Tancredo's pride in his efforts already. During the YouTube-sponsored debate in late November, he beamed as he noted that several of the other candidates had sought to "out-Tancredo Tancredo" on the immigration issue.
He continued: "It is great. I am so happy to hear it. It is a wonderful thing. It's a good message, yes. ..."
He will also be remembered for one of the season's most hard-edged ads (which, given his lack of money, was on the air only briefly).
One note of caution: We've been fooled before by the "major announcement" gambit.
Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel used it to lure a big crowd of reporters to Omaha early in the year, only to say that he was continuing to mull his future plans (ultimately, he not only nixed a much-rumored presidential campaign, but decided to give up politics altogether).
Back in June, Tommy Thompson (remember him?) used the "major announcement" characterization to merely assure curious reporters that he was still in the presidential race (when he dropped out two months later, he spared us the "major announcement" buildup).
-- Don Frederick
While most of the political world focused today on Mitt Romney's effort to defuse rumors and pitfalls posed by his Mormon faith, the Pew Hispanic Center issued a detailed survey examining a subject with much greater long-term ramifications for future campaigns. And the results are not good news for Karl Rove, Ken Mehlman and other Republican operatives who have publicly worried that their party is stiff-arming an increasingly crucial voting bloc.
The poll of 2,003 Latinos at least 18 years of age, conducted this fall, found that among those registered to vote, 57% aligned themselves with the Democratic Party, compared with 23% for the Republican Party. The 34-percentage-point advantage for the Democrats compares with a gap of just 21 points a little more than two years ago.
The report duly notes that the political clout exercised by Latinos remains markedly less than it could be. While making up roughly 15% of the U.S. population, Latinos — based on eligibility to vote and past turnout rates — will make up only about 6.5% of those who cast ballots next November, according to the study.
Still, as strategists in both parties well know, the Latino vote has the potential to help pry away from the Republicans three states — with a combined 24 electoral votes — that George W. Bush carried in 2000 and 2004: Arizona, Colorado and Nevada.
One statistic underscores how the influence wielded by Latinos will only grow — perhaps dramatically —in the next few election cycles. As of this September, the report says, more than one-third of the estimated 45.5 million Latinos living in the U.S. were under 18. Some won't be eligible to vote when they come of age because they are not citizens. But many, many are — and before long will be registered.
Amid the glad tidings for Democrats in general, the poll sounds a discouraging note ...
Read more Pew study sees growing power of Hispanic vote »
By virtually any measure, the spotlight on the immigration issue is growing brighter and more intense in U.S. politics. And if politicians in both major parties often have been providing confused and tortured answers to questions on the subject, a new L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll shows conflicts among the public at large, as well.
We won't reveal the precise findings here; a story on the survey will post on our website about 4 p.m. (PST) and will appear in Thursday's print editions. But the poll reveals that public opinion is fractured on such matters as the impact illegal immigrants have on a community and the most effective measures to stem theit flow into this country.
The poll asked other related questions, including whether illegal immigration was one of the nation's most pressing problems.
The tricky nature of the immigration issue was driven home Tuesday for Republican Mitt Romney (as you can read here) and a raft of the Democratic presidential candidates (as you can read here).
-- Don Frederick
Rep. Duncan Hunter may take heart, we suppose, that he's moving in the right direction -- the new L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll found that among likely Republican voters nationwide, support for his little-noticed presidential campaign has gone from 2% in October to 3% now. Of course, taking into account the plus-or-minus sampling error of 5 percentage points, he could just be treading water in a shallow pond.
And even if there's the slightest of positive trends for Hunter, the survey seems to show that his numerous political handicaps include a pronounced gender gap.
Among male respondents who intend to vote in a GOP primary or caucus (a group that includes independents and a few stray Democrats), 4% were for him; among females, zip, nada, zero. Among actual party members, the chasm is even greater: He can claim 6% support from Republican men, 0% from women.
With a paltry campaign treasury and limited name recognition outside his House district in San Diego County, Hunter gets his main exposure during the periodic candidate debates. That may be part of his problem. As he rails against the U.S. trade deficit, recounts his efforts to combat illegal immigration and touts his expertise on defense issues, it is Hunter's nature to glower.
We don't expect that to change. But he might consider earth tones for his wardrobe.
Other -- more pertinent data -- from the new poll can be perused here.
-- Don Frederick
For Mitt Romney, the prospect of a few extra weeds turned out to be a small price to pay for striking a blow against illegal immigration -- as well as inoculating himself against future debate attacks.
Late this afternoon, his presidential campaign disclosed that upon learning that a company handling the landscaping at his home in Massachusetts "was employing individuals who are not permitted to work in the United States," Romney "took immediate action to terminate the lawn service company in question for failing to comply with the law."
In a statement, Romney elaborated:
"After this same issue arose last year, I gave the company a second chance with very specific conditions. They were instructed to make sure people working for the company were of legal status. We personally met with the company in order to inform them about the importance of this matter. The owner of the company guaranteed us, in very certain terms, that the company would be in total compliance with the law going forward.
“The company's failure to comply with the law is disappointing and inexcusable, and I believe it is important I take this action."
The company's failure also may reflect certain realities of the job market and the economic temptation to hire illegal immigrants, but we'll let others thrash that out.
The lawn service issue bedeviling Romney, you'll recall, was spotlighted ...
Read more Romney axes grass cutters »
"Muted Ad Messages in Vogue" read the headline for a Friday story on the presidential race by the Washington Post's chief media reporter, Howard Kurtz. But if muted marks the current battle on the airwaves, it doesn't necessarily apply to a more silent campaign tactic -- mail sent to prospective voters.
The candidates often convey their most pointed messages through these missives, and that certainly is the case with correspondence from Republican Mitt Romney that The Times' Michael Finnegan ran across during a swing through New Hampshire this week.
The mailings don't mention Rudy Giuliani, his main rival in the GOP contest, by name, but they clearly are aimed at undermining the former New York mayor.
"Cities like New York are rolling out the red carpet for illegal immigrants," a glossy Romney dispatch declares in a particularly unsubtle swipe. Its front features the Manhattan skyline, with a limousine and red carpet in the foreground.
Inside, next to a photo of the Brooklyn Bridge, the brochure laments "protections such as New York instructing its city workers not to provide information to the federal government that would allow them to enforce our immigration laws."
Several of Romney's television ads have spotlighted his family life. One of his mailers ...
Read more Snail mail thrives on the campaign trail »
Thousands of Americans got a personal e-mail today from Fred Thompson. With his photo and signature and everything.
Yes, yes, of course, it asked for money. Is there any other kind of political e-mail in the barely six weeks left before the Iowa caucuses and a front-loaded flood of primary elections?
Most of the polls you read about on the Democratic and Republican races focus on the candidates' standing. But look behind the numbers and those polls also show that many voters on both sides remain undecided (60% among GOP voters in one New Hampshire survey), even after nearly 11 months of campaigning and news coverage.
So, there's not much time to help a lot of minds get made up. Mitt Romney probably leads everybody in TV ads, except maybe Cialis, having spent more than $10 million on nearly 15,000 TV broadcasts. So Fred's got considerable ground to make up with his look-straight-in-the-camera-like-you-really-mean-it message of consistent conservatism.
Trouble is, TV ads cost money. So instead of just asking for money, this time Fred's asking you to buy a 30-second ad in Sioux City with a $70 donation. Or you could get him on the air in Greenville, S.C., for $250. "If you and your friends and family can combine to give $850 to my campaign," the former Tennessee senator writes, "I can buy a prime-time advertisement in Charleston, S.C." Why not make Charleston watch more political ads? What have they ever done besides pick the losing side in the Civil War?
Interestingly, the Thompson ad appeal only mentions Iowa and South Carolina among the early states. New Hampshire, where he's not been much and not gained traction either, is omitted.
The six-paragraph e-mail contains no less than six links to the same Fred08 donation page. It also contains links to his two ads that are already airing, "Consistent Conservative" and "No Amnesty." Maybe you can guess what they're about.
--Andrew Malcolm
Hillary Clinton, who was both for and against giving driver's licenses to illegal immigrants two weeks ago, came out against them again last night. Her latest decision came on the same day that New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer met in Washington with his state's congressional delegation (minus Clinton) and announced that he was abandoning his controversial plan to issue licenses to illegal immigrants.
"As president," the senator said, "I will not support driver’s licenses for undocumented people and will press for comprehensive immigration reform that deals with all of the issues around illegal immigration, including border security and fixing our broken system."
This was likely a vain attempt to take the volatile license issue off the discussion table heading into tonight's 5 p.m. Pacific CNN debate in Nevada, where her opponents -- primarily Barack Obama and John Edwards -- must continue to chip away at her standing. According to a new CNN poll, she holds a 51% to 23% to 11% edge over Obama and Edwards in Nevada. The Times' Scott Martelle examines campaigning for that state's caucuses here on this website and in Thursday's print editions.
Two weeks ago in the last Democratic debate, Clinton was doing her usual steady job as the front-runner until the last few minutes, when she stumbled over two issues -- her support for/opposition to the driver's licenses and whether she would open her first lady document files, which she says provided the experience that qualifies her to be president but won't allow anyone to see.
Moderator Tim Russert first asked her if giving licenses to illegals made a lot of sense, and ....
Read more After two weeks, can Clinton stop the slide? »
And it's not just the war.
The daily Poll Track column at the National Journal collates a few disparate surveys this morning and finds that, to quote another politician in another time, we're in something of a national malaise. As Poll Track points out: "A full two-thirds of respondents to a new Marist/WNBC poll said they believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, a 9-point increase from fall 2006. Harris' 'Alienation Index' has also risen slightly since last year, as more Americans told pollsters this month that they feel the nation's leaders don't care about them and are out of touch with the country at large.
"Considering such widespread dissatisfaction with the status quo, it's no wonder 58 percent of registered voters responding to a new Gallup/USA Today poll said the outcome of the 2008 presidential race matters more to them than previous elections. For many months the conventional wisdom had placed the blame for the public's angst squarely on President Bush and the Iraq war. But recent polls suggest that Americans are increasingly worried about traditional bread-and-butter issues, too."
And the butter has been melting. So it's a "pox on both their houses" mood out there, though other polls show that more people think the Democrats are better suited to straighten the mess out than the Republicans. Those sentiments won't mean much in the primaries and caucuses, but they will come next November. And of course anything can happen between now and then to change the current mood.
But you have to wonder what might have happened had the national elections been this week instead of next year, and how many babies would have gone out with the bathwater.
-- Scott Martelle
There's an interesting mention here about John Edwards picking up another brick to hurl at frontrunner Hillary Clinton. He's already gone after her on her vote to declare Iran's Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization, and her position on ending the Iraq war.
The new issue is a trade agreement with Peru, which Edwards opposes in keeping with his longstanding opposition to NAFTA -- a linchpin of the Bill Clinton administration and an issue that has been opposed by organized labor.
But the interesting line in the ABC Political Radar blog is this one: "Edwards challenge of Clinton on Peru is the latest effort to make the Democratic frontrunner appear as if she considers herself above the issues."
It's an interesting strategy, but it's unclear whether it will have legs. Clinton has been trying to ignore the competition for the Democratic nomination, and the last thing she wants to do is elevate one of the other campaigns by engaging in direct give-and-take on specific issues. But as a candidate you can only coast so long on name recognition and imprecise language.
-- Scott Martelle
We had speculated on the day of the vote last week that a special House election in Massachusetts might resonate even if, as expected, Democrat Niki Tsongas ended up being the candidate sworn into office. And two articles in major newspapers today pick over the strong showing by Republican Jim Ogonowski, interpreting it as a warning shot to Democrats anticipating nothing but blue skies in 2008.
The Washington Post follow-up spotlights illegal immigration -- which Ogonowski pounded on -- as the issue that propelled him to within shouting distance of Tsongas, 51% to 45%, in a traditionally Democratic district. Tsongas' "underwhelming victory," the Post writes, "has rekindled Democratic concerns" that the party's more liberal stance on dealing with illegal immigrants could prove an Achilles' heel for its candidates elsewhere in the country.
Buttressing that view is no less than Rep. Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, the architect of the Democratic takeover of the House in the 2006 elections. Illegal immigration, he says, has "emerged as the third rail of American politics" -- a phrase applied in the past to the political peril surrounding efforts to alter Social Security.
In the Boston Globe, Washington bureau chief Peter Canellos opines that Tsongas' "disappointingly small margin" underscored worries within the party "that the Democratic-led Congress was going off its rails."
Canellos details the frustrations Democrats have encountered in pursuing their agenda on Capitol Hill -- especially the push to rein in the Iraq war. And as evidenced by the election in Massachusetts, the columnist sees that as a looming problem for the party next year.
House Democratic leaders, it appears, are heeding the warning signs. The Hill, which specializes in covering Congress, reports today that Democratic leaders intend to "embark on a publicity blitz starting in November to combat a dismal 25 percent approval rating" in a recent poll.
Given the general contempt with which many Americans hold our esteemed lawmakers -- even in the best of times -- we can only suggest they not set their sights too high for a rebound.
-- Don Frederick
Here's a story that seems a little strange on the surface. The Congressional Steel Caucus, made up of members from steel-making districts, is charging that the new fence going up to protect the United States' southern border from illegal foreigners is being constructed with foreign-made steel.
Chinese steel, to be exact.
"It's outrageous, offensive and unacceptable," Pennsylvania Rep. Jason Altmire tells NBC's Mike Viqueira.
The Congress members say they were tipped off to the foreign-made steel by outraged American union workers and have confirmed with the Department of Homeland Security that specific Buy American provisions written into the law authorizing the fence were waived by the department.
San Diego Republican Rep. Duncan Hunter, who's also running for the GOP presidential nomination and is a frequent critic of Chinese trade policies toward American goods, noted that of the 854 miles of barriers that Congress authorized last year, only 70 miles of single fencing and five miles of double-fencing have gone up.
--Andrew Malcolm
In a few hours, we'll learn whether voters in Massachusetts' 5th Congressional District have decided to send the widow of onetime Democratic presidential contender Paul Tsongas to Congress. The most interesting aspect of the special election is that people are not sure whether Nikki Tsongas will win.
(UPDATE: Late Tuesday night, with most of the votes counted, the Associated Press reported that Tsongas scored a fairly narrow victory over her GOP opponent, 51% to 46%.)
Perhaps no other state in the nation is more identified with the Democratic Party than Massachusetts. The last time its 10-member House delegation included Republicans was in the mid-1990s. Martin Meehan, the Democrat who represented the 5th District but who stepped down this year to become a college president, ran unopposed in 2006. And in 2004, when he faced a GOP opponent, he won with 67% of the vote.
So, as we previously noted, it seemed safe to assume that the Democratic nominee to replace Meehan would have an easy time in today's balloting. So much for assumptions.
Tsongas got roughed up a bit in winning the Democratic primary last month, taking some flak because she has never held an elective office. That problem was pretty much neutralized when the GOP nominated Jim Ogonowski to oppose her -- he's also a first-time candidate. But he's proved to be a good one. And even if he only comes close to Tsongas in the final tally, many analysts ...
Read more A Massachusetts House race is closely watched »
A new advertising offensive was begun today by Mitt Romney, with the former Massachusetts governor taking direct aim at some in his own party and attempting to cast himself as the most electable agent of change.
With polls showing voters want a change and Republicans seeming on the defensive, much of the recent attention has been focused on Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. But the new 30-second Romney ad, titled "Change begins with us," which began today in New Hampshire and will show up in Iowa by the weekend, hits his Republican Party hard as big-government spenders with serious ethical challenges, and slips in a slap or two on the issue of immigration.
"If we're going to change Washington," Romney says, directly staring into the camera with a leafy green background, "Republicans have to put our own house in order. We can't be like Democrats--a party of big spending. We can't pretend our borders are secure from illegal immigration. We can't have ethical standards that are a punchline for Jay Leno."
The ad is part of a lengthy Romney advertising campaign in the early states that began with biographical sketches, and described his management and leadership skills in business and his rescuing the Salt Lake City Olympics and working as a Republican governing liberal Massachusetts.
Romney confronts head-on the corruption atmosphere many voters gave as a reason for electing a Democratic Congress last fall, and through his criticism of big spending tries to appeal to conservatives who feel President Bush went astray in that area of party orthodoxy.
The ad campaign has contributed to Romney's strong lead in Iowa and a smaller one in New Hampshire. In South Carolina he's trailing in fourth place behind Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and John McCain.
Romney, who's coming to California Sunday for a five-day swing, became the first GOP candidate to start running ads in South Carolina on Sept. 5 with what one advisor called a "significant" ad buy, and is going up with another in coming days. Both have previously run successfully in Iowa.
"When Republicans act like Democrats," Romney proclaims in one ad, "America loses. It's time for Republicans to start acting like Republicans. It's time for a change, and change begins with us."
--Andrew Malcolm
The new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll of voters in three states crucial to picking the next president underscores what has been evident by listening to the candidates -- the importance of the illegal immigration issue depends very much on one's partisan inclinations.
In a nutshell, the survey found that few Democratic-leaning voters in Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina rate the matter -- which consumed much of official Washington earlier this year -- as the top priority for White House contenders. By contrast, a healthy slice of Republican-leaning voters in those states give it that ranking.
The findings help explain why illegal immigration rarely gets a mention among the Democratic presidential candidates, either in their speeches or during their debates. Conversely, the results make clear why it's a hot topic in the GOP race. Indeed, it recently sparked what CNN termed "the first real clash" between Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, both of whom have mixed records on the issue.
The new poll found that in Iowa, 9% of those identifying themselves as Democratic voters chose illegal immigration as the numero uno subject the candidates should address. Among their GOP counterparts, the figure was 30% (putting it basically tied with the war in Iraq and protecting the U.S. from terrorists).
The gap was comparable in New Hampshire (5% of the Democratic electorate tabbed illegal immigration as the big issue, 25% of the Republicans did) and South Carolina (7% versus 23%).
A similar divergence was found on healthcare, but with the roles reversed -- especially in Iowa and New Hampshire. Many more Democratic voters than Republican ranked that as the main priority for candidates.
Also in those two states, Democratic voters -- by large margins -- singled out the war in Iraq, rather than guarding against terrorist attacks on the homefront, as the issue they wanted the candidates to focus on. But the GOP voters in Iowa and New Hampshire gave each subject roughly equal weight in their rankings.
For all the numbers on how those polled rate the issues, see question 37 here.
The survey was conducted Thursday through Monday. In most cases, the margin of sampling error was plus or minus 5 percentage points; among Iowa Democrats, it was 4 percentage points.
-- Don Frederick
The first in an upcoming series of issue polls of AARP members gives a very poor report card to the candidates of both parties for explaining their views on issues of importance to people over 50. Candidates beware because these are the folks who vote more conscientiously than others.
The poll, being released at this hour, covered 1,000 AARP members (half Democrats, half Republicans) in Iowa, Nevada, Florida, New Hampshire and South Carolina between July 24 and Aug. 16 with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points.
The results look volatile at this early stage. While they found Democrats following the primary races more closely than Republicans, they also found that 65% of Democrats and 78% of Republicans say they are at least somewhat likely to change their candidate preference before election day in November 2008.
But at this stage the respondents had very murky impressions of individual candidate positions on a number of issues like financial security for seniors or who can best break through partisan gridlock.
Both Democrats and Republicans agree that Iraq is the top issue and healthcare is No.2. But Democrats think the economy/jobs is third while Republicans list immigration and terrorism next followed by the economy/jobs. In specific states, immigration ranks second in Nevada and South Carolina Republicans while terrorism jumps to second in Florida.
According to AARP, exit polls last fall showed that voters over age 49 cast half the ballots. The group intends to continue the polls through the fall to track candidates' emerging positions on senior issues and the resulting shifts in members' candidate preferences. The complete results of the first poll are available here.
--Andrew Malcolm
This may be a first.
The opening ad by a major presidential candidate (Barack Obama) in a state of some importance in the nominating process (Nevada) is in a foreign language (Spanish).
Also, at a time when the mood in the country can hardly be described as pro-immigrant, Obama promotes the fact that his father was from Kenya.
"As a son of a foreign father who came to this country looking for a better life, Barack Obama learned that differences do not divide, but rather enrich," the ad says, according to a translation provided by the candidate's campaign.
The 60-second radio spot began airing today on stations in the Las Vegas and Reno markets. You can listen to the ad here.
Nevada is slated to conduct caucuses on Jan. 19, an early date pushed by Democrats to give a Western state more primary clout than in the past. As slotted, it was to fall between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, but that schedule now has been thrown into turmoil.
Latinos are expected to represent a major share of those attending Nevada's Democratic caucuses, and White House contender Bill Richardson, the Latino governor from nearby New Mexico, plans a major push to win the contest. But Obama's ad underscores that the state is likely to be a battleground, which is just what the Democratic National Committee had in mind.
-- Don Frederick
In the wake of the legislative wreckage of this year's attempt to rewrite immigration policy, at least one prominent Democrat is warning that any similar effort will have to wait --- until well into the next decade.
The Washington Times reports today that Rep. Rahm Emanuel of Illinois recently told a Latino activist from his state that Democrats in Washington would not grapple with the controversial immigration issue until the second term of a prospective Democratic president. That would push it into 2013, at the earliest.
The Washington Times says Emanuel confirms making the comment. And his judgment certainly deserves serious consideration. A former White House aide to President Clinton, he's a cold-eyed political realist who in 2006 oversaw the national campaign that achieved what the Democrats had failed to accomplish in several previous tries --- regain the majority in the House.
Emanuel's prediction speaks volumes about the tricky politics that surrounds immigration and the lack of anything close to a consensus on how to deal with it. It also makes one wonder about the prospects for resolving other complex and politically difficult matters, such as the rising cost of healthcare and the funding of Social Security.
-- Don Frederick
The back-and-forth over the immigration bill now in the Senate has been long, torturous and often confusing. It's easy to get lost, trying to follow it. Just ask President Bush.
 Bush met with various aides and staff members this morning, thanking them for their work on the legislation and bucking them up for the arduous effort needed to actually get it passed. As he has often in recent weeks, he sought to counter the argument that, in offering a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants after they pay fines and meet other conditions, the measure represents the dreaded A-word.
"You know, I've heard all the rhetoric --- you've heard it, too --- about how this is amnesty. Amnesty means that you've got to pay a price for having been here illegally, and this bill does that."
At that moment, CNN's Lou Dobbs must have been in seventh heaven, thinking he had FINALLY converted Bush to his view that the bill would reward lawbreakers, and therefore provide amnesty.
About three hours later, White House Press Secretar | |
