New poll shows Americans' confidence wanes in Obama's bid to halt H1N1 swine flu pandemic

With the H1N1 swine flu continuing to spread faster than the government's creaky distribution system can get out the vaccine, Americans' confidence in the Obama administration's ability to prevent a nationwide pandemic of the deadly illness is crumbling.

A new CNN/Opinion Research Poll of 1,018 adult Americans finds that a shrinking number are very or somewhat confident about the Democratic administration's plans, while those lacking confidence are increasing.

Although much of the popular media's attention has been devoted to the congressional struggle and vote over costly healthcare reform legislation — and then last week's Ft. Hood shooting that killed 13 and wounded dozens — the threat of a massive pandemic claiming hundreds of lives looms as the kind of public disaster for Obama that the Bush administration's poor preparedness was after Hurricane Katrina.

Last month Obama declared a national emergency over the H1N1 flu potential.

But steady delays in manufacturing the vaccine and the federal government's distribution have continued. Deliveries of millions of doses have gone way beyond the original schedule. So late are deliveries that some medical experts say an epidemic will be well underway or over before all the doses become available in late December.

GOP Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, never a fan of big new government programs, has called this year's H1N1 swine flu preparations a "total failure." His belief seems to be spreading like a virus as well, with several polls showing a majority of Americans now have no intention of getting the doses, even if and when they become available.

Now, the new CNN Poll, taken Oct. 30-Nov. 1 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points, finds that the proportion of Americans who are very confident that the Obama White House can prevent a pandemic has fallen from a meager 15% around Labor Day to a worse 11% now. The proportion of those feeling "somewhat confident" has dropped from 44% to 40%.

Meanwhile, the proportion of those lacking any confidence has jumped from 40% to 49%.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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It's official! Obama declares an H1N1 swine flu national emergency. So what?

President Obama declared an H1N1 swine flu national emergency today. (Full text below.) It even uses that scary word "pandemic."

With the potentially serious illness spreading rapidly around the country, people who are not occupied being sick in the bathroom expect the government to be on the case. Officials say 46 states now have widespread cases, about 20,000 hospitalizations since April and 1,000 U.S. deaths.

Actually, the president declared the national emergency last night with his official signature. But who's paying attention to anything but high school football on fall Friday nights? In politics and public communications, timing is crucial, and Friday nights are a time to release bad news.

So the White House held the announcement for release Saturday, usually a slower news day when a simple piece of proclamation paper will get more media attention like this, spilling over to the Sunday talk programs and possibly accomplishing two good things:

1) Perhaps persuade more skeptical Americans to get the vaccine that's late making its way around the country (only some 11 million doses have been shipped so far) and that so many seem to have serious doubts about.

A new poll -- see link below -- shows that 62% of adult Americans have no intention of getting the protection because they don't believe the danger, don't trust the government's urgings or its assurances of safety.

2) Show through strategic political communications that the Obama White House is right on top of the case from the very start.  (Do the names Hurricane Katrina and George W. Bush ring a bell here?)

It looks and sounds good. And, therefore, it is good.

But the practical effect of the Democrat's declaration has little effect on regular folks. It authorizes federal health officials to authorize hospitals to set up emergency healthcare operations in nonstandard ways and places (i.e. off-site treatment places to keep infected folks from infecting others). And it also waives certain federal bureaucratic yada-yada rules.

So, wash your hands again and go back to the game or waiting in line for the vaccine and sneezing into your arm instead of your hands.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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DECLARATION OF A NATIONAL EMERGENCY WITH RESPECT TO THE 2009 H1N1 INFLUENZA PANDEMIC
- - - - - - -
BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA A PROCLAMATION

On April 26, 2009, the Secretary of Health and Human Services (the "Secretary") first declared a public health emergency under section 319 of the Public Health Service Act, 42 U.S.C. 247d, in response to the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus.

The Secretary has renewed that declaration twice, on July 24, 2009, and....

Forget the rush on that H1N1 swine flu vaccine; 62% of Americans have no intention of getting it anyway

Kathleen Sebelius, the secretary of Health and Human Services, who recently taught Americans the federally-approved way to sneeze this season, was on Capitol Hill on Wednesday.

She was trying to explain widespread delays in the delivery of the H1N1 vaccine across the country.

Basically, of course, she said it wasn't the Obama administration's fault, that as soon as the vaccines come in, they're being shipped out immediately by the many thousands of doses.

You know how everyone talks about Americans not making things anymore, that so many manufacturing jobs, for instance, have been shipped overseas?

Well, Sebelius was essentially saying the same goes for flu-vaccine-making.

Four of the world's five makers are foreign. And we all think we know what that means.

Members of Congress could have been exploring this subject last winter when their latest automatic pay raises took effect.

Instead, Wednesday they expressed shock and dismay at the situation now that it's October and thousands are already falling ill with the H1N1 virus (see photo above, shown somewhat larger than life).

Also, Purdue University researchers reported the late deliveries may not matter because by the end of this year 63% of Americans will be infected anyway. So, too many doses, too late.

But wait!  There's more.

This morning comes word from a new ABC News/Washington Post poll that almost four parents out of 10 do not believe the vaccine is safe and have no intention of allowing their children to receive it.

More than 60% of adults say they have no intention of getting the vaccine either.

Using an open-ended question, the poll also found the overwhelming reason for rejecting the vaccine this year despite federal warnings and mounting concern about the illness' seriousness was concern about side effects and disbelief in its safety, especially suspicions that it has been inadequately tested. Other reasons included general ignorance and a belief the illness was probably less serious than the danger of the vaccine.

So much for the persuasive powers of the U.S. federal government. Think about that for a minute: A whopping majority of Americans (62%) would rather risk illness than believe in their government's urgings of necessity and safety.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photo: Associated Press (Sebelius demonstrates a federally-approved sneeze.)

Pot politics: Obama feds reverse Bush crackdown

In a major victory for advocates of medical marijuana, the Obama administration today issues new guidelines that will end Bush-era federal attempts to override state marijuana laws.

Under the new rules to be released today, federal drug agents and prosecutors will be instructed not to pursue pot-smoking patients or their sanctioned suppliers in the 14 states, including California, that allow medical marijuana.

With marijuana sales still the largest source of income for violent Mexican drug cartels, prosecutors will be reminded to go after people abusing state laws or using medical marijuana as a cover for other crimes.

But two Justice Department officials told the AP that with limited resources, it is not a good use of their time to arrest people who are suffering from cancer and using medical marijuana in strict compliance with state law.

Last fall, when the economy was collapsing and Washington was looking for ways to salvage the nation's economy, there was a boomlet of talk about legalizing pot to tap into a vast underground economy whose producers and customers are not now paying taxes. Stephen Easton, an economist at the Fraser Institute, estimated that a tax on marijuana sales, if patterned on the same model as cigarette sales, could bring in $40 billion to $100 billion in new tax revenue.

Now that's reefer madness. Hmm. Maybe if that deficit gets any bigger...

-- Johanna Neuman

Photo Credit: Getty Images

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Obama may visit ailing Ted Kennedy -- if the senator's up to it

Ted Kennedy, the patriarch of his famous political family and 47-year veteran of Congress whose passion for progressive politics has earned him the sobriquet "The Lion of the Senate," is ailing.

The 77-year-old Massachusetts senator, who's battling brain cancer, has lasted longer than doctors expected, according to his son Rhode Island Rep. Patrick Kennedy. Confined mostly to the Kennedy compound at Hyannisport, Mass., the senator goes sailing and sits on the porch of his seaside home, sharing stories about family and politics, talking to his children, according to the younger Kennedy. Last week he was too weak to attend the funeral for his sister, the founder of Special Olympics, Eunice Kennedy Shriver, or the Presidential Medal of Freedom ceremony at the White House at which his daughter Kara accepted his award. He has been described as "frail and failing during his brief public appearances."

Still, President Obama, who won the election last year after Ted Kennedy and Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg bestowed the blessings of Camelot on his candidacy, is hoping to visit during his week-long vacation on Martha's Vineyard with his family. (See an earlier Ticket item on the first family's Republican-owned digs.)

The Boston Herald is reporting that the Secret Service made a security trip to the compound -- perhaps they've been there before? -- to prepare, but cautioned that an Obama visit will "only happen if the senator is up to it."

-- Johanna Neuman

Photo: President Obama with Sen. Edward M. Kennedy at a Washington, D.C., charter school in April just before signing the Serve America Act, which tripled the number of AmeriCorp volunteers. Credit: Getty Images

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Town hall attacks on health care -- mob rule or democracy in action?

It's getting ugly out there.

Opponents of health care reform are disrupting town halls from coast to coast. As Ticket reported last week, protesters in Maryland hung a congressman in effigy. In Texas, anti-reformers held a sign showing a tombstone with Democratic Rep. Lloyd Doggett's name on it. And in Missouri, police arrested six people outside a health care forum with Democratic Rep. Russ Carnahan after protesters organized by the conservative St. Louis Tea Party clashed with pro-reform union workers.

Fighting back, the White House has set up a website -- whitehouse.gov/Reality Check -- and a new email address -- flag@whitehouse.gov -- so supporters can pass along rumors that seem, well, fishy. "Scary chain emails and videos are starting to percolate on the Internet, breathlessly claiming, for example, to 'uncover' the truth about the President’s health insurance reform positions," the White House blog said.

On the Hill, normally quiet during August, Democrats have set up a war room where members of Congress under attack can call for help. With protesters urging their supporters to disrupt the meetings -- “Become a part of the mob!” said a banner posted on the website of Fox talk-show host Sean Hannity. “Attend an Obama Care Townhall near you!” -- the Democratic National Committee is urging backers to skip the town halls and visit their representatives in their offices.

House Minority Leader John Boehner argues that the disruptions are evidence of "the widespread anger millions of Americans are feeling this summer toward Democrat-controlled Washington." "The Republican National Committee responded with an e-mail titled "THE MOB? Hey Democrats, They're Called The American People."

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi seems to be having trouble deciding what she thinks of all this. As the Ticket has reported, last week she said the protesters were exercising their democratic rights. Asked if they represented grass-roots opposition, she dismissed their cause as "Astroturf."

But today, in an op-ed with House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer in USA Today, she writes, "These disruptions are occurring because opponents are afraid not just of differing views — but of the facts themselves. Drowning out opposing views is simply un-American. Drowning out the facts is how we failed at this task for decades."

With President Obama scheduled to conduct his own town hall in New Hampshire tomorrow, let us know what you think -- is this democracy in action or mob rule?

-- Johanna Neuman

Photo credit: South Florida Tea Party

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Swine flu hits Senate pages on Capitol Hill -- maybe

Senate pages -- those high school juniors who come to Washington every year to get a first-hand introduction to politics by serving as interns in the Senate while going to school -- are in the news again.

This time, it's not a scandal, like the one that drove Florida Republican Mark Foley from office after it was revealed that he had been sending sexual messages to male pages. Amid the ensuing controversy, which helped propel Democrats back into power in the House in 2006, Foley resigned from Congress and the page board -- which is supposed to monitor the kids' dorm living conditions, schooling and work hours -- was reorganized.

The problem now? Swine flu. At least they think it's a possibility.

Senate Sgt. at Arms Terry Gainer said today that six Senate pages are sick with flu symptoms that could be H1N1. The dreaded swine flu killed more than 150 people in Mexico during an epidemic in the spring. But in this case, two of the pages are already back at work.

Doctors are "not overly concerned" about an outbreak of the virus on Capitol Hill, Gainer told CNN, adding that all 53 students in the Senate page program were told "not to panic," to "wash their hands" and to stay home from work if they don't feel well. That's the official line from health officials as they brace for a possible onslaught of swine flu cases in the fall.

In the meantime, Gainer's assessment: "The sky is not falling."

-- Johanna Neuman

Photo: Senate pages carry ballot boxes through Statuary Hall toward the House Chamber so electoral votes can be counted during a joint session of Congress on Jan. 8, 2009, to officially designate Barack Obama as president-elect. Credit: Getty Images

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Steny Hoyer predicts healthcare bill next week: What if he's right?

Not much equivocation over healthcare reform today from Rep. Steny Hoyer of Maryland, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's political enforcer as majority leader.

"We believe we will be able to pass a healthcare bill next week."

And:

"We are either going to get there through committee by the end of this week, and through the House by the end of next week, and into negotiations with the Senate over a conference report."

So you heard it first today on Fox News Channel's "Happening Now" and read it here now. Which brings up an unconventional but genuinely intriguing thought in terms of political strategy.

What if we're all being played here?

What if all this handwringing and professed hesitancy and Blue Dog worries and Senate Finance Chairman Max "Not Usually Captain Courageous" Baucus criticizing his party's president is part of a choreographed political pageant, capped by the president's energetic agenda-driving this week. To be sure, hard to believe for fractitious Democrats, who more often seem like a bodyless bird with 10 wings. But...

All staged by the savvy unconventional political team that turned a little-known Illinois frosh senator into the political upstart Barack Obama who overturned the unbeatable, inevitable Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton just last year. The same folks who may have convinced the D.C. media pack to issue its healthcare reform death pronouncements.

After all, there are ample Democratic votes to pass anything in both houses. The president persists in talking about "now is not the time to stop." No worry coming from his lips until now and not likely during tonight's presidential news conference either. Same unflappable pedal-to-the-metal demeanor as he displayed last year after riding high into New Hampshire from his stunning Iowa caucus win and Clinton found her voice and waxed him good up there.

Obama is, after all, a self-confessed long-haul kinda guy.

And next week when, miracle of miracles, Congress cobbles together some kind of healthcare reform, almost any kind of healthcare reform, before it takes yet another month off.

Then, what was unbeknownst to us already in the cards, emerges framed not as just a normal ho-hum win for the new guy but as an incredible, unexpected comeback and summer-saving victory to believe in that was, truth be told, already scripted to happen?

And the president coasts through August and his family week on Martha's Vineyard looking like, well, a successful powerful president, instead of a waning, ineffective one as George W. Bush appeared to be in his first White House summer. Before something called 9/11.

Just saying.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photo: Associated Press

Nah-nah! Obama gives California more flu-fighting bucks than anyone

Kathleen Sebelius -- the Obama administration's secretary of Health and Human Services nominee who did not have big back-tax problems -- announced this afternoon that she's sending $30,516,050 to California immediately to fight flu.

That's nothing to sneeze at. In fact, it's nearly 10% of all the flu money that HHS is distributing nationwide to those other puny states. See, there is a reason for having Nancy Pelosi. And Oprah, though she's only a California part-timer. Payback for those 55 juicy electoral votes last Nov. 4? And keep those Golden Staters healthy and alive.

(Or as loyal Ticket reader Kenneth tweets: "That leaves only 90% for the other 56 states.")

We weren't going to bother writing about such piddling chump change as millions, given the trillions we've moved up to discussing since January.

But that extra 50 bucks at the end pushed it over the top and clearly showed the transparent commitment to public health of both the Democratic president and Sebelius (shown above demonstrating how to spread a flu virus as quickly as possible).

In an additional multimedia sign of Obama's commitment to public health, Sebelius notes she's launched a contest for ordinary germy citizens to make their own anti-flu public service videos. After all these public health grants, however, there's only $2,500 left for a prize; talk about chump change. (And no prize for pro-flu videos.)

We were just enjoying the middle of summer when Sebelius warns, "With flu season around the corner, we must remain vigilant and do all we can to prepare our nation and protect public health. These grants will give states valuable resources to step up their flu-preparedness efforts.”

All right, it is chump change for the most populous state, given California's gabillions of dollars in red budget ink. But you'd think 30 mil would pretty much guarantee good health around California for everyone as long as we seal the border with Oregon. And maybe Arizona.

Perhaps some other less-important states would be willing to forfeit some or all of their federal flu-fighting funds so that Californians could avoid sneezing and continue to enjoy the sunshine that makes its way through the smog.

There's way too many numbers in the announcement to really bother with. Suffice to say, there are grants for public health -- L.A. alone is getting $8,510,041.

But, disturbingly, there are also immense grants for hospital preparedness. This would seem to indicate that the feds are not really counting on total prevention of the various flus that, according to media reports only a couple of months ago, threatened the human race with extinction.

Never mind washing your hands frequently. The only answer is obviously more money.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photo: Associated Press

Henry Waxman to be discharged from the hospital today, aides say

Rep. Henry A. Waxman (D-Beverly Hills), who was admitted to the hospital on Tuesday after fainting in his Los Angeles office, is being discharged from the hospital today and is expected to be back at work next week, a spokeswoman for the 69-year-old congressman said. She would not say what is ailing Waxman.

The 18-term congressman was taken to Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles on Tuesday and was kept there for evaluations and what was called “routine testing." 

Phil Schiliro, Waxman's former chief of staff (and the current White House liaison to Congress), said on Thursday that Waxman is "feeling fine and is in good spirits." Schiliro said he did not know what was wrong with Waxman but noted that "he takes great care of himself."

Waxman wields a great deal of power in Washington these days because he is chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, which oversees the energy and healthcare legislation crucial to President Obama's agenda. Waxman co-wrote an ambitious energy and climate-change bill that passed the House, 219 to 212, on June 26. And he is expected to help craft the chamber's healthcare legislation. 

We will keep you informed of updates on Waxman's health, when we hear them. In the meantime, check out the L.A. Times review of the congressman's recent book, "The Waxman Report: How Congress Really Works." The very complimentary review is written by the always erudite Times critic Tim Rutten (who rarely lavishes praise so freely).

-- Kate Linthicum

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Photo: Rep. Henry A. Waxman (D-Beverly Hills) with members of his House Energy and Commerce Committee in May. Credit: Matthew Cavanaugh / European Pressphoto Agency