Ron Paul: Could he win the Iowa caucuses?

Could the guy from Texas possibly win the Republican Iowa caucuses come January? And kick off the actual GOP nomination race with a surprising big bang?

By 'the guy from Texas' we don't mean Gov. Rick Perry, who announced his own candidacy before a gathering of conservative writers in South Carolina Saturday. He could well win it too.

But we're talking now about the other Texan in the Republican race, the elderly 11-term congressman named Ron Paul.

Once upon a time the libertarian-like Paul was considered a fringe candidate.

He still is.

The trouble for mainstream Republicans is that Paul's devoted disciples just keep on carving out apparent victories for the kindly old guy, whose son Rand is now a U.S. senator from Kentucky. The senior Paul is an Air Force vet and retired ob-gyn. He's now five years older than John McCain was when everyone said John McCain was too old to move into the White House.

History would suggest he has little or no chance of becoming the nominee, let alone the president. But history also suggests that a dedicated band of hardcore believers could in a crowded field produce an upset win for Paul come that chilled caucus night in January. It worked for Huckabee, who won the caucuses in 2008 after finishing second in the 2007 straw poll.

Most of the attention from Saturday's Ames Straw Poll has focused on another House member, Michele Bachmann of Minnesota via Iowa. With a gritty determination and fresh appeal, Bachmann captured the straw poll win, which is meaningless except from a PR point of view.

It thrust her onto five of the Sunday blab shows making rare forays outside the Beltway, giving her a national podium to reach millions of Americans. This week she's in South Carolina.

But less noticed was Paul's showing, second place, only 152 votes behind the media starlette. Think he would have been invited onto all five Sunday shows?

Uh, no.

But it's interesting to speculate on Paul's outlook. Since 2008, the issues and the electorate have moved in his direction.

Everyone agrees Tim Pawlenty is a really decent guy, accomplished as Minnesota's governor and well organized in Iowa. But he badly trailed Paul Saturday and dropped out Sunday. Why?

One good reason is Pawlenty's calm, reasoned demeanor did not reflect the high-octane....

Weekly remarks: GOP's Pat Toomey says regs kill jobs; Obama says new jobs his top priority

Weekly remarks by Sen. Pat Toomey, as provided by Republican Party leadership

Hi, I’m Senator Pat Toomey from the great state of Pennsylvania, and I’m pleased to have this opportunity to share a few thoughts with you today.

Like a lot of Americans all around the country, I’m deeply concerned about the lack of job growth and our stagnant economy. 

Now President Obama inherited a weak economy, but by nearly every measure, he has made the economy worse. Over two years ago, his administration told us that passing his $787 billion stimulus bill would keep unemployment below 8 percent.

Instead, since the stimulus was enacted, our economy has lost more than 1.3 million jobs and the unemployment rate has averaged over 9 percent.

Today, fewer people are working; gas prices are higher; home values are lower; wages are weaker; healthcare is more expensive; taxes are heading higher and our federal deficits are much larger than when President Obama took office.

Clearly, the policies of this administration are not working.

So, what went wrong? Well, a big part of the problem has been job-killing regulations. Every....

Obama on debt rating: 'Markets will rise and fall'; and they do

 

Seeking to show leadership and calm anxiety on the first trading day after the unprecedented credit downgrade for the federal government, a beleaguered President Obama made an 11-minute financial statement this afternoon that proved prophetic.

"Markets will rise and fall," the Democrat said, "but this is the United States of America. No matter what some agency may say, we’ve always been and always will be a AAA country."

The results: On the worst day since the 2008 financial crisis, all three major U.S. stock indexes dropped between 5% and 7% with the Dow plunging 633 points to close beneath 11,000 for the first time in nine months.

On Friday after the markets closed Standard & Poor's lowered the federal government's....

Geithner agrees to stay at Treasury, continue Obama's amazing economic policies

Finally, some promising economic news in what has been a steady recent stream of dismal data and developments:

Secretary of the Treasury Tim Geithner has agreed to stay in the Obama administration.

The master of finance who has so successfully assisted President Obama in boosting the national debt by more than $3 trillion, driving unemployment back north of 9% by spending only $787 billion in stimulus funds, corroding consumer confidence and presiding over the first federal credit downgrading in history has agreed to stick around to continue his impressive work for this Democratic administration.

Geithner is the sole survivor of President Obama's opening economic team. Obama is reported pleased.

So are Republicans. Rumors that Geithner planned to leave government after helping to prolong the debt debate had worried the GOP that Obama might pick a competent replacement who could have a positive economic effect before next summer when voters' impressions start hardening for the fall election.

To ensure the 49-year-old Geithner stayed, Republicans from Michele Bachmann to Speaker John Boehner have vociferously called for his firing. The White House confirmed Geithner's continued employment and Sunday he said, "I love my work."

Geithner added,"We still have a lot of work to do." Which could be a promise or threat.

Recent polls found Obama losing ground against any Republican opponent. The continued tenure of a treasury secretary who couldn't file his own accurate income taxes before being appointed should only help further.

Speaking of polls, a new one out late Sunday, widely overlooked amid concerns with sagging Asian financial markets after the U.S. downgrade, indicates an ominous disconnect between likely voters and those people they elected to government, on all sides.

Rasmussen Reports finds that only 17% currently think the federal government is operating with the consent of the governed. The fundamental question stems from the second paragraph of the Declaration of Independence:

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any form of government becomes destructive to these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness.

Nearly seven-in-ten likely voters (69%) say the current government does not have such consent -- and 14% say they are undecided or, more likely, don't know what any of it means.

That 17% is down from 23% as recently as May and is the lowest ever measured.

The results align with polls showing the job approval of Congress also at record lows -- 61% now rank its job as poor, a 9 point jump since June. In June, 8% appraised Congress' job as good or excellent; that number is now only 6%, basically down to the members themselves, their families and staff.

Members now on another month-long recess may hear some of this back home. But the continued pattern of profound unhappiness with all sides could be an early storm warning for any incumbent next year.

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 -- Andrew Malcolm

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Photos: Alex Wong / Getty Images (Geithner); Paul J. Richards / AFP / Getty Images (Geithner).

It's come to Michele Bachmann's attention that you have not responded yet about Ames

Michele Bachmann sounds as if she's getting a little impatient, what with the Ames Straw Poll just nine days away and millions of Americans not yet having RSVPd and/or donated to her Republican presidential campaign:

"Still haven't heard from you," said the representative's hands-on-hips, foot-tapping email Wednesday. Such persistence is one reason Bachmann is among top congressional fundraisers.

An Iowa native who now represents a Minnesota district, Bachmann also wanted to invite you and anyone you know or could come to know quickly that country singer Randy Travis will be the headline entertainer in her air-conditioned tent at the straw poll.

Iowa Augusts are great for corn and soybeans. Less so for folks who prefer to wear dry clothing.

So, an air conditioned tent with name entertainment could help draw a good crowd, which draws the media.

And if crowd members are over 18 and Iowa residents, perhaps they'd like to vote for Bachmann in what is an overblown county fair and the state Republican Party's major fundraiser each presidential cycle.

The straw ballots mainly matter as a fictitious measure of a candidate's mid-summer support seized on by news-hungry media members as a sign of something until more concrete evidence comes along. A good showing can help put a lesser-known candidate on the Hawkeye State map, as it did for Mike Huckabee four years ago.

He lost the straw poll to first place Mitt Romney then, but did better than expected and went on to win the ensuing winter caucus for his brief moment of campaign victory. Romney's not going to throw away more than a million dollars on the show this time.

The Paulistas of Ron Paul's campaign will no doubt be out in force, as they are at most straw polls. But much attention will be focused on the competition between Bachmann and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. Both need a strong showing at Ames to maintain momentum for Bachmann and to gain some for Pawlenty.

Also, did we mention Bachmann's tent will be air conditioned?

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Ron Paul dubs 'super Congress' plan 'monstrous'

Bachmann votes No on deficit deal, Yes on fundraising

Obama loses ground against any Republican opponent

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photo: Charlie Neibergall / Associated Press (Bachmann speaks at a July Iowa rally).

Ron Paul calls 'super Congress' plan 'monstrous'

Texas Republican Ron Paul is at it again with his silly common-sense approach to money, something he finds totally absent from this week's much-touted agreement to raise the debt ceiling.

The 11-term representative says, "You don’t get out of the problem of having too much debt by allowing Congress to spend a lot more."

Can you believe it?

Next thing you know he'll be quoting the Constitution again.

Paul voted against the debt ceiling increase that everyone from Barack Obama on one liberal side to Tim Geithner right next to him said was necessary to avert a national financial calamity beyond comprehension, possibly threatening the president's attendance Wednesday night at several Chicago Democratic political fundraisers.

Paul was talking with Lou Dobbs on Wednesday night on the Fox Business Network.

He said the bipartisan legislative cobbling "never made any sense to me. It just digs the hole much deeper and then it gets harder for us to get out." So, it became "a very easy vote for me."

The 76-year-old retired OB-GYN, who is seeking the GOP presidential nomination again, said he was appalled at the ad hoc 12-member bipartisan committee devised to find further federal spending cuts before Thanksgiving, what he calls "this super Congress."

According to this week's agreement, the committee, three members of each party from each chamber, must do the job Congress is supposed to do but hasn't or can't. And if it doesn't, then other automatic cuts occur by year's end. Not unlike legislative cruise control.

"Where in the world did that come from?" Paul demanded. "And where is that going to lead to? That is monstrous. I keep looking and I can’t find any place in the Constitution where we have the authority to create such a creature as the super Congress."

See how silly Paul is?

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-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photo: Dobbs and Paul. Credit: Fox Business Network

Obama gives fretting unions some facetime today

Some serious feigned fence-mending scheduled for this morning behind closed doors at the White House.

President Obama, according to his public schedule, will meet with the AFL-CIO Executive Council to "discuss issues important to working families, including how to continue growing our economy and putting Americans back to work."

Translation from the unions' POV: WTH were you thinking when you did this debt ceiling deal? The Senate will vote on the deal today. And the president is expected to sign it soon after.

It's one major measure of the political sea change in Washington this summer that President Obama's State of the Union message last winter hardly mentioned the word debt. And yet the D.C. debate ever since has been nothing but debt and spending cuts.

After increasing the national debt by $4 trillion on his watch, for a variety of reasons, Obama lost....

Gabrielle Giffords returns to the House floor -- and a standing ovation

An emotional and unexpected moment Monday evening as Arizona's Rep. Gabrielle Giffords returned to the House floor for the first time since her near-fatal shooting at a Tucson shopping center in January.

Her arrival prompted a bipartisan standing ovation and cheers from the gallery to acknowledge the almost seven-month rehabilitation of the three-term Democrat. In a statement released by her office, Giffords said:

I have closely followed the debate over our debt ceiling and have been deeply disappointed at what’s going on in Washington. After weeks of failed debate in Washington, I was pleased to see a solution to this crisis emerge.

I strongly believe that crossing the aisle for the good of the American people is more important than party politics. I had to be here for this vote. I could not take the chance that my absence could crash our economy.

Her husband Mark Kelly and the rest of the Endeavour space shuttle crew are scheduled to meet President Obama at the White House later today.

Twice before, in February of 2010 and December of 2009, Giffords voted against raising the debt limit. This time she voted in the affirmative, one of 95 Democrats to join 174 Republicans in the 269-161 tally.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photo: C-SPAN (Giffords acknowledges the standing ovation on the House floor when she returned for the first time on Aug. 1); Susan Walsh / Associated Press (Giffords takes the oath from Speaker John Boehner, Jan. 5, shortly before the assassination attempt).

Bipartisan debt deal draws bipartisan flak from Limbaugh, Krugman, Beck--and a Gallup warning

No wonder top Senate Democrat Harry Reid wants a quick vote on the bipartisan deficit reduction agreement:

Less than 24 hours in, opposition is jelling quickly. And it too is bipartisan.

Oh, and a new Gallup Poll now gives President Obama his lowest weekly approval rating ever.

Sunday night was all about legislators, who love making deals, having made a deal after making it look hard for weeks. Monday is all about explaining it. At least $2.1 trillion in spending cuts sounds good to many.

But wait, what? Cut $350 billion from defense? In this day and age. With a community patrol officer as president launching protective military attacks against Libya over what its dictator might do to civilians, while Syria's regime actually does kill them by the hundreds and draws wimpy warnings?

Some might see bipartisan unhappiness with the budget deal as a sign of a genuine compromise. Others that it might be doomed. And they could both be right.

Top radio talker Rush Limbaugh points out the maximum $2.4-trillion debt increase would be the largest increase in U.S. history on top of the previous largest increase ever ($1.9 trillion), both by the pen of Obama. Limbaugh predicts Obama will cite a failure of cuts next year and return to his tax increase demands.

Glenn Beck, who also doesn't hold elective office, pronounces:

Don’t be fooled. We’ve just been betrayed by Washington. A deal on the debt ceiling is near and Washington still hasn’t gotten serious about the fundamentals. It hasn’t gotten serious about default. It certainly hasn’t gotten serious about the future. When Harry Reid hails a “bipartisan compromise” you know we’re doomed.

Republicans and Democrats have just negotiated away the future of our children behind closed doors. The big compromise on Capitol Hill features elaborate triggers, tranches, Hornswogglers, Snozzwangers, Super Duper Commissions that will make the Snozzberries taste like Snozeberries, and a whole bunch of other convoluted gibberish that will, no doubt, come with loopholes and create entire new bureaucracies.

What it doesn’t do is fix the problem.

Over on the left, the White House was busy this afternoon trying to calm angry progressives such as bearded talker Paul Krugman. He says Obama surrendered and folded, and he urges a "no" vote on the "disaster."

Firedoglake is organizing calls to Congress to denounce especially the unconstitutional "super Congress" soon to be making further cuts outside the purview of other elected members.

And libertarian-like Texas Rep. Ron Paul joins Krugmen in blasting the agreement for its false promises. Do we hear a can being kicked down the road yet again?

On the polling front, Gallup this afternoon released a new survey finding Obama's weekly job approval is now at 42%, one point lower than his previous lowest.

Such a deal for everyone.

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Smiles on Capitol Hill but more bad poll news for the White House

-- Andrew Malcolm

Don't forget to follow The Ticket via Twitter alerts of each new Ticket item. Or click this: @latimestot. Our Facebook Like page is over here. We're also available on Kindle. Use the ReTweet buttons above to share any item with family and friends.

Photo: Andrew Harrer / Bloomberg (Reid); Nicholas Kamm / AFP / Getty Images (Joe Biden smiles gamely on Capitol Hill, Aug. 1).

More bad poll news for Obama as debt deal brings smiles to Capitol Hill

Lots of smiles and happy news from Capitol Hill late Sunday as legislators on both sides optimistically announced a debt limit-spending deal to avert a threatened government shutdown Tuesday.

Even Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid, who loves making deals, was glowering a little less.

The initial details of the bipartisan deal leaking out indicate that in return for driving his own job approval rating down to its lowest point ever, President Obama didn't get much out of the professed compromise.

He wanted new taxes; sorry, enhanced revenues. You know, those rich corporate jet owners, et al.

All he got basically, it seems, was an agreement to put off the next spending fight until after the 2012 presidential election. Republican legislators, who said they wanted to debate the debt limit again next winter, gave that up. Which helps them as much as the former legislator now in the White House.

Obama will, no doubt, have more to say about the deal today. See if he throws in more sour grapes as he did after the GOP won its Bush tax cut extensions in last December's talks. Back then, Obama, who promised to bring both sides together if elected in 2008, called his fellow deal-makers "hostage-takers."

We'll hear more too today from legislators on both sides; each caucus will be....