Iowa determined to go first in GOP presidential nomination race

  

Herman Cain upset the Republican presidential apple cart with an impressive win Saturday in the Florida straw poll. Now it looks like the Sunshine State could once again disrupt the march toward picking an opponent for President Obama.

According to published reports, Florida's presidential primary could move to Jan. 31, more than a month ahead of schedule. A panel named by Gov. Rick Scott and GOP legislative leaders is expected to complete the move Friday, and that could put the state in hot water with the Republican National Committee.

(UPDATE: And the panel indeed did move the primary to Jan. 31)

According to RNC rules designed to prevent a chaotic rush during primary season, only Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina can hold elections before March 6.

But Florida, which will play host to the 2012 Republican National Convention, in Tampa, wants to have a more central role in picking the nominee. To achieve that, it would run afoul of the RNC, which will dock it about half of its 116 convention delegates.

Speaking to the Miami Herald, Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos (R-Merritt Island) said: "That's the price we have to pay. I feel bad for those folks who might not be able to be delegates. But ... we'd love to give the entire Republican Party membership in Florida the ability to have an influence on who the nominee would be."

Florida also pulled a similar move in 2008, moving its primary to Jan. 29, and helping to lock up the nomination for Sen. John McCain. Though all the Florida delegates made it to the convention floor in Minneapolis-St. Paul -- with about half being characterized as "honored guests" -- the RNC seems in no mood to make a deal this time.

Also speaking to the Herald, RNC spokeswoman Kirsten Kukowski said: "Any state that violates the rules will lose half their delegates. This is not a negotiation. These are the rules."

The current schedule has the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 6, followed by the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 14, the Nevada caucuses on Feb. 18, and the South Carolina primary on Feb. 28.

Determined not to be knocked off its perch as the first-in-the-nation caucuses, Iowa will do what it takes to keep its place of honor.

In a statement, Iowa Republican Party Chairman Matt Strawn said: "The four sanctioned, early states have been very clear that we will move together, if necessary, to ensure order as outlined in RNC rules. If we are forced to change our dates together, we will."

In a Sept. 29 interview on Fox News' "On the Record with Greta Van Susteren," GOP candidate Sen. Rick Santorum (obviously not a disinterested observer), said: "For the life of me, I don't understand what Florida's trying to accomplish, because whatever they're going to accomplish, they're going to fail. ... All you've effectively done is cut off one month of the lead-up time to this primary process."

He also defended the role of the smaller states, saying: "They've had a pretty good track record of taking the responsibility very seriously. ... These states are smaller states. It's manageable for them to meet the candidates, to kick the tires, to find out who these people really are."

Theoretically, Iowa could go as early as the first week of the year.

Democrats avoid all this hullabaloo by having their incumbent run unopposed (at least so far). But if former Clinton advisor Dick Morris is to be believed, the Democratic race could become as complicated as the GOP's.

In a Sept. 21 article on his website, DickMorris.com, the former Democrat strategist writes: "As bad news piles up for the Democrats, I asked a top Democratic strategist if it were possible that President Obama might 'pull a Lyndon Johnson' and soberly face the cameras, telling America that he has decided that the demands of partisan politics are interfering with his efforts to right our economy and that he has decided to withdraw to devote full time to our recovery.

"His answer: 'Yes. It’s possible. If things continue as they are and have not turned around by January, it is certainly possible.' "

Though Morris is leaning toward prediction territory, he's not the first person to publicly suggest the same thing.

On Sept. 18, Steve Chapman, a columnist for the Chicago Tribune (a sister paper of the Los Angeles Times, under the Tribune Co. umbrella), wrote a piece called "Why Obama Should Withdraw."

He wrote: "In the event he wins, Obama could find himself with Republicans in control of both houses of Congress. Then he will long for the good old days of 2011. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker John Boehner will bound out of bed each day eager to make his life miserable.

"Besides avoiding this indignity, Obama might do his party a big favor. In hard times, voters have a powerful urge to punish incumbents. He could slake this thirst by stepping aside and taking the blame. Then someone less reviled could replace him at the top of the ticket."

And who did he think that someone should be? The answer can be found in the picture at the top of this post, a shot from the New Hampshire primaries of 2008.

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-- Kate O'Hare

Photo: Hillary Rodham Clinton and daughter Chelsea visit Democratic supporters in Nashua, N.H., on primary day, Jan. 8, 2008. Credit: Joe Raedle / Getty Images

Rick Perry's underwhelming debates: Do they matter?

The news wasn't so good for the Republican presidential candidate who occupies the governor's office down there in Texas.

With their space-age podiums, cheering (or booing) audiences and their gotcha questions from media folks with their own makeup assistants, debates realistically have nothing to do with anything any president of any party would ever face in the Oval Office.

Debates do, however, have everything to do with how American voters perceive a candidate for president. How informed, well-spoken, straightforward, candid, quick, attentive do they look?

The Texas governor had suffered through two debate performances that could charitably be described as mediocre. He hardly looked presidential on the stage or up to the executive expectations that had pushed him to the front of the pack in polls.

Now came new polling showing his prime competitor surging to the lead in the important first primary state of New Hampshire.

Was this the end of his short presidential campaign? Or the end of the beginning in a very long presidential campaign for the White House?

No, this isn't the story of Gov. Rick Perry's presidential campaign, which turns 45 days old today.

This is a cautionary tale about reading too much into the early debate showings of any party's candidates, no matter how good or bad. Our esteemed and shall we say very veteran colleague Mark Barabak, calls our attention to a news story written almost 12 years ago, by him, as a matter of fact:

After his less-than-commanding performance in two presidential debates, George W. Bush faces a tougher race than expected amid growing signs of Republican discontent--including a new poll that shows major slippage in the key primary state of New Hampshire.

As it turned out, of course, John McCain did stay ahead of Bush in New Hampshire that cycle and whomped him good on primary day by about 15 points. The next morning, with aides vowing to get serious, the Bush campaign moved on to South Carolina, where the Texan won.

And the rest, as they say, is history that Barack Obama reminds us all about every few hours.

These campaigns are long and grueling, as they should be to determine the minds and mettle of the wannabes. John F. Kennedy announced his candidacy on Jan. 3 of that 1960 election year. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama announced in February, 21 months before the election.

Just as the substantial early TV audiences watch and study the 2011 debates, so do the candidates and their advisors. Besides the content, they're advised on how not to look bored, how and when to move a hand, when to point, how one particular expression dangerously resembles a sneer. (Remember Al Gore's infamous sighs from 2000?)

Watch Romney. This is his second rodeo. He's always paying attention to the others, often graciously grants part of their point and then moves to drive his home. Another respected colleague, Robin Abcarian, examined Perry's studied motions apparently mimicking Reaganesque movements.

Who's got a big enough DVR memory? But if anyone compared these early Republican debates to ones coming next winter, they'd see radically improved performances by the surviving candidates.

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 --Andrew Malcolm

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Photo: Mike Carlson / Associated Press (Romney and Perry joust in Sept. 12 debate); Tannen Maury / AFP (Bush and Gore debate, Oct. 18, 2000).

How to retire Dennis Kucinich or Marcy Kaptur: Put both Dems in the same Ohio district

Well, it looks like the new congressional redistricting will help Ohio get rid of at least one long-term Democratic representative in next year's House elections.

According to newly drawn district lines set to go to the Ohio Legislature any day, eight-term Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Cleveland and 15-term Rep. Marcy Kaptur of Toledo are both in the same new narrow district running along the southern Lake Erie shoreline. Both have announced their candidacies.

The Buckeye state is home to House Speaker John Boehner and is losing two of its current 18 House seats.

But it will remain a key Midwestern battleground state on the presidential level. No Republican has won the presidency in more than a century without capturing Ohio.

After losing the state's Democratic primary to Hillary Clinton in 2008 (53-45), Obama beat John McCain (52-47) in the state where the Arizonan introduced his VP running mate, Sarah Palin, to the nation. Obama has visited Ohio frequently as president, most recently this week.

However, since 2008, Republicans have fed off dissatisfaction with Obama and the state's economy to hold the old George Voinivich U.S. Senate seat (Rob Portman), and win control of the state Legislature (which controls redistricting) and the governor's office (John Kasich).

They also tipped control of the congressional delegation from 10 Democrats and eight Republicans to 13 Republicans and five Democrats.

For next year the GOP is targeting first-term incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown, who easily won Mike DeWine's seat, 56-44, during the Democrats' congressional takeover of 2006. Next year, however, Democrats must defend 23 of the 33 Senate seats being contested nationally.

You could tell Kucinich was excited about the remapping. In an email fundraising appeal Wednesday, he used two exclamation marks in the first two sentences: "We have a district! The race is on!"

Without mentioning Kaptur, the House's longest-serving female Democrat, Kucinich celebrated the demise of his old Cleveland district and the slicing off of its Republican areas to buttress other GOP districts.

For her part, Kaptur said the pair shared no hard feelings over their upcoming struggle. "We are friends," she said. "This is hard for us."

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-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photos: Rick Osentoski / Associated Press (Kaptur); Harry Hamburg / Associated Press (Kucinich); OhioHistoryCentral.org (state flag).

Kindly Dick Cheney's advice for Hillary Clinton: Run!

Ever eager to offer helpful political advice from his long Washington experience, former Vice President Dick Cheney thinks former first lady, former senator and current Secretary of State Hillary  Clinton should challenge Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2012.

Cheney is doing more interviews than he would like these days. He'd like to do zero interviews.

But he's selling a book, "In My Time," which as the former high school wrestler promised, settles some scores from that long Washington experience.

This time Cheney was on ABC News with Jonathan Karl.

Part of the silent understanding in these book promotion deals is that the author tacitly agrees to answer some questions that have nothing to do with the book but might make news in return for some questions that do have something to do with the book.

Karl asked Cheney if Hillary Clinton would have made a better president than the Real Good Talker who gets a national stage again tonight to talk to Congress.

Cheney acknowledged that she hasn't expressed any interest and called her a "pretty formidable individual," high praise in Wyoming.

He added:

I think she’s probably the most competent person they’ve got in their– in their cabinet. And, frankly, I thought she was gonna win the nomination last time around.

Maybe if the Obama record is bad enough -- and these days it’s not very good, given the shape of the economy -- maybe there will be enough ferment in the Democratic Party so that there will be a primary on their side.

Then Cheney added:

I think it'd be good for the country. It'd be good for the Democratic Party.

And then he added something else:

And it might even help the Republicans.

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-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photos: Michael Reynolds / EPA; Price Chambers / NBC Dateline.

Rick Perry grins, shrugs and swings away at Reagan Library GOP debate

 
Texas Gov. Rick Perry came under fire as Republican aspirants to Ronald Reagan's old job gathered under the wings of his former Air Force One tonight, for another debate aired on national TV.

Fresh from surveying wildfires in his home state, Perry was the shiny new toy at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley. It was his first presidential debate, and moderators Brian Williams of "NBC Nightly News" and Politico editor-in-chief John Harris called on him at most every opportunity.

And he didn't disappoint, particularly in pointed exchanges with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who was the presumptive front-runner until Perry entered the race on Aug. 13, the day of the Ames straw poll in Iowa.

Consider this exchange on the question of job creation:

Perry: "Michael Dukakis created jobs three times faster than you did, Mitt." (A grin and a "whaddya gonna do?" sort of shrug followed.)

Romney: "George Bush and his predecessor created jobs at a faster rate than you did, Governor."

Perry: "That's not correct."

Romney: "That is correct."

Williams: "Nice to see that everybody came prepared for tonight's conversation."

Or, when Rep. Ron Paul of Texas said Perry wrote a letter in the '90s "supporting Hillarycare."

Perry countered that he was his state's agriculture commissioner during the Clinton administration and that he was urging Hillary Rodham Clinton, then the first lady, not to forget rural healthcare in her proposal to overhaul healthcare policy. Then he looked at Paul and said, "I was more interested in the one you wrote to Ronald Reagan, saying, 'I'm going to quit the party because of the things you believe in.' "

"Oh," said Paul, "I need an answer on that!"

He went on to explain how he'd supported Reagan in 1976, and supported his....

She's baack! Hillary Clinton questions return to Obama White House

They've started again -- the Hillary questions.

Will the once-vanquished first lady, who's been the solid voice of administration foreign policy since Day One, challenge White House incumbent Barack Obama for the Democrats' presidential nomination a year from now in Charlotte, N.C.?

Of course, she and everyone will say no, no, no -- until the day they might say, well, actually, yes.

Or until the day the ex-state senator takes Joe Biden off the 2012 ticket and replaces the aging gaffemeister with her because Obama is in so much trouble and the party's big-money people from New York and California insist that the Harvard guy needs a woman's help. And they don't mean Oprah.

The Hillary question came up again Monday at the White House briefing. Jay Carney, with his Where's Waldo glasses, tried unsuccessfully to joke it off. Similar queries will ...

Joe Biden update: His GOP 'terrorists' quote reaffirmed

So, did Vice President Joe Biden really liken Republican House "tea party" members to terrorists during the debt deal roughhousing, just as President Obama was publicly professing a desire for political civility?

In a way, it doesn't matter anymore, because the belief that he did has hardened like cement (see the photo above, the protester on the right, all the way out in Iowa).

In an unusual move within the fraternities of Washington journalism, Politico, which broke the original hot story, issued a reaffirmation of the piece Wednesday, apparently in response to another Washington news organization questioning Politico's sources as "dubious."

To refresh your memory, hours after Biden met behind closed doors with unhappy....

Oprah volunteers for Obama 2012

Finally, an answer to the question several people have wondered about:

Has-been TV talk show host Oprah Winfrey is ready, willing and able to help reelect her fellow Chicagoan, Barack Obama, to the White House.

The billionaire made an atypical foray into politics back in 2007-08 when she supported and openly campaigned for the Illinois senator.

She helped pack the house at rallies for the newcomer and staged a glittery fundraiser at her Montecito house.

She paid a ratings dip price for her political involvement against Obama's main Democratic competitor, Hillary Clinton. But Oprah was winding down her long-run successful broadcast show by then anyway.

Now, it's dead and she's struggling to breathe energy into her OWN cable network.

About 2012, Winfrey told Politico, "If the campaign needs me, I’m happy to be of service. I’m in his corner for whatever he needs me to do.”

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-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photo: Kimberly White / Reuters, file.

Michele Bachmann has not yet clinched the GOP nomination, as best we can tell for now

Yes, yes, Mitt Romney is still in the Republican race. And Ron Paul. And Tim Pawlenty. And probably Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain and Rick Santorum for all any news consumers know.

It just seems like the men have been plunked down on some distant island set for "Survivor: Tampa Bay."

The guys are all gasping for media oxygen this week as Congresswoman Michele Bachmann rolls out her campaign for the GOP nomination. And Sarah Palin still doesn't.

Although we did get Sarah Palin at the Sarah Palin movie premiere with husband Todd. In Iowa, too. If you can believe the coincidence.

As it does with female political candidates, especially conservative ones, the media has focused on Bachmann's mis-speaks about the essential location of where a dead movie actor was born. Next come diminishing notations on her clothes, hair and what she can see from her front porch in Minnesota.

Maybe one day Bachmann will even refer to the president of Canada, which doesn't have one. Wouldn't that be stupid for a lawyer aspiring to the White House? Oh, wait. That was Barack Obama in a Democratic candidate forum back in 2007. Didn't get much coverage for some reason.

But the Bachmann camp has to be pleased with the initial rollout. She's virtually tied with Romney in last weekend's respected Des Moines Register Iowa Poll with a fraction of his negatives.

Following her impressive performance in the opening New Hampshire Republican debate earlier this month, Bachmann scored a media coup Tuesday on her first full campaign day.

From the same room in Manchester, N.H., she was on five (5!) morning shows, speaking directly to millions of Americans preparing for their day when the breakfast crowd doesn't so much watch TV as listen to it. And all for free.

Not only that but Mark McKinnon, the savvy state and national campaign veteran for candidates in both parties, gave Bachmann an excellent review in a widely-read Daily Beast piece.

And McKinnon warned her critics to ignore the media's reflexive gaffe-itis coverage and take the top House fundraiser seriously.

Meanwhile, Gallup reports Bachmann now enjoys a 69% name recognition, up from 52% in February. And she ties with Cain for the highest Positive Intensity Score of any GOP candidate Gallup tracks.

Our colleague Kate O'Hare will examine that quintet of Bachmann morning show interviews closer here in a few hours. But Bachmann parried other queries while getting out her bio message: long marriage, small business owner, mother of five, foster mother of 23, tax litigation attorney, legislator, returning Americans to control of Washington.

Then, she took her tea party message on to enthusiastic crowds in South Carolina, leaving in her trail a new Suffolk University Poll showing a significant gain for her. Bachmann surged from virtually nothing (3%) in May to 11% now, the largest gain by any GOP candidate.

She's still far behind the 36% of Romney, who gained only one point this month, and has begun to separate herself from other Republicans, none of whom are in double digits.

Meanwhile, a new Rasmussen Reports survey  of likely voters finds only 9% say they are unwilling to vote for a woman as president. Fully 82% now say they would. That's up from 71% in early 2008.

Interestingly, almost three-out-of-four (73%) now say a female U.S. president is likely within 10 years, when Hillary Clinton will be only 74.

Speaking of presidents, the current one felt the need to also be in Iowa Tuesday.

It seems that 66% of Americans believe their country is on the wrong track under his leadership, nevermind the unauthorized war against Libya.

So, in optimistic way-to-go remarks to aluminum workers, the Democrat pleaded for more time for someone to do something about creating hundreds of thousands of new jobs across the nation because things were so bad when he took over 2 1/2 years ago and promised immediate improvement with the humongous stimulus spending bill that was for sure going to keep unemployment below 8% but didn't.

Obama will have a hard time winning Iowa's electoral votes next year, which makes other Midwestern states even more important, although many now have Republican governors.

Speaking of Republicans, Sarah Palin -- who isn't running for anything, you understand -- felt the need to show up in Iowa too.

In little old Pella, which is southeast of Des Moines and southwest of Malcom, a lovely community that misspells its name. The occasion was the galactic premiere of the movie "The Undefeated" about the successful parts of Palin's life and career.

If Palin is not running for the Republican Party's presidential nomination, why would she ever choose to be in rural Iowa when the humidity can exceed the temperature? On the other hand, if she is running, why hasn't she contacted any party organizers or caucus workers?

Sounds like a mystery sequel.

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-- Andrew Malcolm

Don't forget to follow The Ticket via Twitter alerts of each new Ticket item. Or click this: @latimestot. Our Facebook Like page is over here. We're also available on Kindle.Use the ReTweet buttons above to share any item with family and friends.

Photos: Emmanuel Parisse / AFP / Getty Images (Bachmann in South Carolina, June 28); Brian C. Frank / Reuters (Palin and a young Palin fan in Pella, June 28).

Sarah Palin in Iowa for premiere of 'The Undefeated,' a new chapter in the politics of documentaries

 
 

Sarah Palin heads to Iowa on Tuesday, but whether or not electoral politics are involved is in the eye of the beholder.

Palin has to face jury duty in July in Alaska, but, according to the Christian Science Monitor, the former Alaska governor and her husband, Todd Palin, are first going to Pella, Iowa, for the June 28 premiere of "The Undefeated."

Filmmaker Stephen K. Bannon's documentary portrait of Palin and her political record goes into limited distribution by ARC Entertainment in AMC Theatres the week of July 15 (locally, it will be in the City of Orange, in Orange County).

Interestingly -- likely coincidentally -- President Obama will also be in Iowa on Tuesday, promoting manufacturing jobs in Bettendorf. No word whether the two have a date to split corn dogs, but we doubt it.

Approached by Palin's camp to produce short films for SarahPAC, Bannon decided instead....