Bobby Jindal, a possible recall and political reality

Well, this has got to have some effect on the national political prospects for Bobby Jindal, the rising star from Louisiana. (Can a star rise from the South?) Jindal, the Louisiana governor, on Monday vetoed, after promising not to, a pay raise that the state Legislature had voted for itself.

We're not exactly talking big bucks here. The current base pay for legislators is $16,800, and the Legislature wanted to more than double it to $37,500.

Why does this matter? Well, voters tend to hone in on "flip flops" -- note the baggage Mitt Romney carries (see the comments on this post). So the specifics of whether Jindal should or should not have vetoed the measure Monday is less important than the fact that he was tacking like, well, John Kerry out windsurfing.

Why Jindal's change? An uprising among voters, in the form of a recall petition. The Times-Picayune sums up the brief history: "Jindal was widely criticized for failing to stop the raise before it was passed and his initial refusal to veto it. He said he had promised lawmakers that he would not use his veto, but he also pledged during his gubernatorial campaign last year to prohibit an immediate legislative pay raise."

So to recap, first Jindal promised to stop the pay raise, then told legislators he wouldn't stop the pay raise, then -- looking at his own political mortality -- reversed direction again and stopped the pay raise. Jindal fell on the sword Monday, thanking "the people for their voice and their attention" -- that would be the recall petition -- and added: "The voters have demanded change. ... I made a mistake by staying out of it."

But you have to wonder what the odds table says now about Jindal's chances for the co-pilot seat on the Straight Talk Express.

-- Scott Martelle

Obama hits Vegas today and he's got his lucky charms

The Barack Obama for president campaign rolls into Las Vegas today.

And the candidate revealed he's collected a whole slew of good luck charms, not for the tables but for the election. He told reporters he's got maybe 100 lucky trinkets of one kind or another. And each day he makes a selection to carry with him.

Mark Silva has the rest of the story over at the Swamp.

--Andrew Malcolm

Top of the Ticket, the start of Year Two

On this, the first anniversary of our Top of the Ticket blog, we are reminded of the mercurial, unpredictable nature of U.S. politics -- part of what makes what we do so fascinating.

Our goal -- one of us on the East Coast and the other on the far more important or at least less humid West Coast -- was to write about Campaign '08 virtually around the clock.

Our second-ever posting, 12 months ago today, previewed an upcoming L.A. Times/Bloomberg Poll; later in the day, we detailed the results of the nationwide survey. The findings were in line with other polls of the time.

In the Republican presidential race, which then seemed the most likely to last deep into the primary season, Rudy Giuliani was perched in first place. His lead wasn't overwhelming, but it was strong enough that he appeared certain to remain a major contender.

His liberal record on social issues loomed as an obvious liability within his party, but his tough-on-terrorism message was attracting substantial support from moderates and GOP-leaning independents.

His major headache among rivals last June was an as-yet-undeclared candidate who was riding a wave as the great conservative hope -- Fred Thompson. He ran a strong second in the poll.

Lagging far behind were John McCain and Mitt Romney, each barely with double-digit support. In our preview posting, we were especially scornful of McCain, noting sarcastically (and foolishly, as it turned out) that in the poll, he found himself "in heated competition with the 'Don't Know' category."

Meriting no mention from us was Mike Huckabee, one of several back-of-the-pack candidates barely earning any support across the country.

The Democratic race, at that point, seemed so much more cut-and-dried.

Hillary Clinton was the clear front-runner; Barack Obama was just as clearly ...

John McCain, Barack Obama neck-and-neck (in NCAA picks)

The two guys remaining in the presidential race gained a fair amount of press two weeks ago when they made a point of disclosing their picks in the NCAA college basketball tournament (Hillary Clinton did not fill out a bracket sheet -- at least not for public consumption).

So now that the Final Four matchups are upon us, how did Barack Obama and John McCain fare? Pretty well.

Neither foresaw that each of the No. 1 seeds would advance, but both picked three of the top dogs to survive. And that includes their mutual selection to win it all -- the University of North Carolina.

Obama, though, has a chance to edge out McCain for best showing, at least in terms of the remaining games. Along with UNC, he tabbed another team still alive -- UCLA -- to square off in Monday's championship.

McCain chose UNC to play the ultimate game against a No. 4 seed that failed to make it to the final round -- the University of Connecticut (perhaps his thinking was influenced by Sen. Joe Lieberman, who has broken with his Democratic roots to actively promote the presumed Republican presidential nominee).

The one pick by Obama that got left in the dust also was a No. 4 seed -- the University of Pittsburgh (perhaps, in this case, he had an eye on how his choices would play in Pennsylvania as its April 22 primary approaches).

The one No.1 team that Obama disrespected, by the way, was Memphis. On McCain's card, it was UCLA (and here we thought McCain was that rare GOP White House contender with a fondness for California).

-- Don Frederick

                                    Photo credit: Wally Skalij,  Los Angeles Times

A behind-the-scenes debate in the Romney camp

Here they are, these famous people, running, indefatigably running to become president of the United States. And they're learning all about these important issues and debating foreign policy and what needs doing to salvage Social Security, and on illegal immigration and so many other complexities.

And in between public appearances they're inside a small jet zipping around Iowa from Bettendorf to Cedar Rapids to Mason City and Des Moines just before the crucial Iowa caucus will determine the fate of several candidates, including possibly the one walking toward the back of the plane with a friend.

It's former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and his advisor Ron Kaufman. They look serious. They need help. They want the handful of reporters sitting there, including The Times' Robin Abcarian, to settle an important issue -- and $100 is riding on it.

"What movie was the song 'Que Sera Sera' from?" Romney asks.

"'The King and I'?" suggests Kaufman.

But before you can say Google, a young woman's voice pipes up from farther back, "The Man Who Knew Too Much."

As the two men walk away, Romney can be heard saying, "Put it on my tab."

-- Andrew Malcolm

Romney no gambling man

As The Times noted yesterday in Dan Morain's fascinating piece on politics and Nevada's gambling industry, Mitt Romney, a Mormon, is one of the few politicians who has ventured to Las Vegas this year and not accepted significant sums from the state's powerful gambling industry. What are the odds of that?

He did tap into the Silver State's developers, business owners and others to the tune of $400,000, with only one donor listing a casino as his employer.

However, last year during the former Massachusetts Governor's tenure as chairman of the Republican Governors Assn., gambling interests (in Nevada it's called gaming) poured $1.8 million into the RGA's campaign account. Harrah's Entertainment alone contributed more than a third of that total, $665,000, according to a Times review of finance reports.

Between 2002 and 2006, casino companies, tribes that own casinos, lottery companies and other casino-related businesses gave $8.24 million to the RGA.

— Andrew Malcolm

Photo: Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney; Credit: AP