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Category: Electoral Map

The call to Democrats hoping to build the party -- Go West!

August 4, 2009 | 10:39 am

The independent West

The West is different, as anyone who has ever spent time in the cloister of the Boston-Washington corridor can tell you. There is all that opportunity, untamed beauty and wide, wide open space. There is also the mythos that attaches to the West, embodied in words like freedom, self-reliance and rugged individuality. 

Some of it is actually true.

Over the last decade or so, the Mountain West has emerged, politically speaking, as one of the hardest-fought and most closely watched regions of the country, a cluster of swing states that, unlike those of the Midwest, still have that sense of the future about them.Half Dome

The Democrats, who have been on something of a roll out in the Rocky Mountain states, will host a first-of-its-kind gathering later this month in Denver, mustering 400 or so of the party’s top leaders, including Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, as well as campaign strategists, demographers and other political savants. Jim Messina, a Montana boy and the deputy White House chief of staff, will serve as an emissary from the Obama administration.

The event is being hosted by Project New West, a Democratic group that has been an important party builder in the region. The idea is to swap lessons from campaigns won and lost and to brainstorm “in real time, not looking back 20 years later, like we did in the South,” said Jill Hanauer, the project’s director.

To understand the political terrain, pollsters for Project New West took to the field to survey voters in several states that promise to be battlegrounds in 2010 and beyond.

Among the findings to be discussed in Denver:

-- Nearly three-quarters of the western voters surveyed display the American flag at home, work or on their car. That compares to 60% nationally in a Pew poll released in January 2007.

-- Roughly nine in 10 Western voters say they...

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Some Latinos, angry at Obama and Congress, threatening to boycott census

July 14, 2009 |  5:20 am

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson campaigns for Barack Obama among Latino voters

The Senate this week confirmed Robert Groves, a former census official and sociology professor at the University of Michigan, to run the Census Bureau. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke pronounced him ''a respected social scientist who will run the Census Bureau with integrity and independence.''

The appointment will hardly still controversy over the 2010 census.

To guarantee the most accurate count of the 300 million or so Americans, federal officials promise confidentiality. But now a group of Latino clergymen is charging that widely published census data is being used to crack down on illegal immigrants. And they're calling on people in the country illegally not to answer the census.

"Law enforcement has been very effective in areas where the data of census 2000 has been used," said Rev. Miguel Rivera, head of the National Coalition of Latino Clergy and Christian Leaders, a Washington-D.C.-based group of 20,000 churches, many of them storefronts serving undocumented workers.

Required by the U.S. Constitution, the census is used to apportion seats in Congress. With residents leaving amid a fiscal meltdown, California could lose a congressional seat. With new residents moving in, Utah or North Carolina could gain. And, beyond the politics of the thing, the census is also used to apportion more than $300 billion in federal dollars to states and cities. So, high stakes all around.

Disappointed that President Obama has not pushed harder for immigration reform to help the estimated 12 million undocumented Latinos in the country, Rivera told NPR that he hopes a boycott will put pressure on Congress to do just that. "If they don't want [a loss of]  funding for their constituents, maybe losing seats at the congressional level, then what they have to do is roll their sleeves and move forward with comprehensive immigration reform," he said.

Los Angeles activist Nativo Lopez is trying to convince the group he heads, the Mexican American Political Assn., to endorse the boycott. Latinos -- who helped elect Obama -- feel betrayed, he said, believing that despite great campaign rhetoric, the Obama White House is just continuing the Bush crackdown on illegal immigration while ignoring the impact of the recession on undocumented workers.

"There is no incentive for me to cooperate with the federal government to conduct this count unless we get relief from the federal government on the types of issues that are devastating our families socially and economically," he said.

In North Carolina, where a Latino undercount could seriously damage the state's chances of getting another congressional seat, Roy Crisanto, pastor of El Tabernaculo De La Uncion, a Pentecostal church, is telling members to join the boycott.

“The government wants to count people,” Crisanto told the Charlotte Observer, “but not give them the benefits that come with being counted.”

Other Latino groups are gearing up to fight the boycott, fearing that it could undermine the very count that helps the community with needed funds.

Arturo Vargas, head of the National Assn. of Latino Elected Officials, called the boycott "irresponsible," reminding his colleagues that an undercount would affect funding and representation for a decade.

"The irony is that the enemies of immigration reform, this is what they want," Vargas told the Wall Street Journal. "They don't want these people counted."

Catholic bishops have also joined the be-counted campaign. "It is important to get the word out because some of the populations we serve tend to normally be undercounted," said San Antonio's Archbishop Jose Gomez, an official in the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops. "The U.S. Census is a useful tool for learning about God's people, who and where they are, and many other facts that shed light on their lives, possibilities and struggles."

Census forms are to be mailed out in the spring. Between now and then, look for this debate to rev up.

-- Johanna Neuman

Photo:  New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson speaks to Latino voters during a rally in Denver in October. Credit: Associated Press

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Under Obama, Democrats plan a summer Western offensive

June 19, 2009 |  2:24 am

Reno Nevada Skyline

Back in early 2005 — when President Bush had a pile of political capital and Barack Obama was a rookie senator learning his way around the Hart Office Building — a group of forward-looking Democrats set their sights on the West.

John Kerry’s loss in 2004 was a disappointment, of course. But there were bright spots for them, as Democrats made significant inroads in the land of Reagan and Goldwater, gaining House and Senate seats and electing nearly three dozen state lawmakers across the region.

With an eye on 2008, party strategists set to work building on that progress, mindful of two trends running their way: the region’s growing suburbanization and the rising influence of Latino voters. Democrats placed their national convention in Denver (although that was largely symbolic) and, more significantly, granted Nevada one of the coveted early spots on its presidential calendar.

The moves, along with the dispatch of a ton of money and organizing talent, clearly paid off.

Once Obama cinched the nomination — after battling then Sen. Hillary Clinton to a draw in Nevada — he campaigned harder in the Rocky Mountain region than any Democrat in memory. His reward was....

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Mr. Crist coming to Washington?

May 12, 2009 |  9:23 am

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist welcomes President Obama at a town hall meeting in Fort Myers Feb. 10, 2009  

Florida's popular Gov. Charlie Crist made it official today: he's running for the Senate instead of for reelection next year, to replace retiring Republican Mel Martinez.

No sooner had the 52-year-old governor thrown his hat in the ring than Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Jon Cornyn endorsed his candidacy, a sign of GOP desperation to keep the seat in Republicans hands in a Senate where Democrats are already looking at a 60-vote, filibuster-proof majority. (Assuming Minnesota's Al Franken ever gets sworn in.)

With Florida tilting Democratic -- Barack Obama carried the state by a 2% margin, the first Democrat to win there since Bill Clinton's second-term victory in 1996 -- Crist's announcement also throws local politics into a tizzy.

For one thing, it gives Democrats their best shot at winning the governor's office since....

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Why Sid Voorakkara's vote for Obama matters more than yours

November 20, 2008 |  2:02 am

America strives to uphold the proposition that all men, women and votes, are created equal. But the archaic Electoral College requires that a group of extra-equal Americans cast their ballots before a president can officially take office.

That's where Sid Voorakkara and 54 other Californians come in.

Political Button 2008

The nonprofit health advocate and former Democratic political operative from San Diego will travel to Sacramento on Dec. 15 to cast his Electoral College vote for Barack Obama, who captured all the state's 55 electoral votes by getting way more popular votes than the Arizona guy and Alaska gal on Nov. 4, as The Ticket reported last night.

(A refresher for our many loyal Ticket readers abroad and some at home who didn't do too well in American Government:

(A state's Electoral College votes are the total of that state's elected U.S. senators (two each) plus the total of its U.S. House members re-apportioned every 10 years by population. The latter ranges from the minimum of one in Montana and Alaska to 53 in California.

(Yes, we know, it is arcane. But, hey, it was very hot in Philadelphia when the Founding Fathers argued this all out back in the 1700s.)

Few people will actually notice the official ...

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Still crunching the numbers on Barack Obama and John McCain

November 11, 2008 |  7:08 pm

One week after election day, the votes in the presidential race continue to dribble in (democracy remains a messy process).

CNN, on its Website, conscientiously keeps updating the popular vote totals. The last time we checked, it showed Barack Obama with more than 66.1 million votes. John McCain was just shy of the 58-million mark.

Democrat Barack ObamaOddly, at least to us, the CNN site has yet to reflect Obama's apparent victory in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District which, in that state, means he claims one of its electoral votes (the other four go to McCain).

Assuming the Republican retains his ever-so-small margin in the one state several news outlets have been reluctant to call -- Missouri -- the electoral count will come in at:

Obama -- 365

McCain -- 173

With the Show Me State emerging as the election's quintessential battleground, what, we wondered, were the sites of the biggest routs -- the bluest of the blue and the reddest of the red?

Setting aside the District of Columbia (which Obama carried with almost 93% of the vote), the president-elect's best showing occurred in his native state of Hawaii. The New York Times' results map gives him 71.8% of the vote in Hawaii (making it the only state where either candidate broke the 70% mark).

Obama recorded his second-best showing in Vermont, where he garnered 66.8% of the vote. On the one hand, that's no surprise.  Vermont, to many, is synonymous with liberalism. 

On the other hand, Obama's showing in the Green Mountain State underscores its amazing transformation from a bastion of Republicanism. In the 34 presidential elections between 1856, the first to feature a Republican, and 1992 (when Bill Clinton won it), the GOP candidate failed to carry Vermont precisely once -- in 1964.

In 2004, the bluest of the blue (again excluding D.C.) was Massachusetts; John Kerry won his home turf with 61.9% of the vote. That was the only state ...

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(UPDATED) Ticket Notice: Sunday shows -- Emanuel, Cantor, Reid

November 8, 2008 | 12:00 pm

(UPDATED: The ABC and CNN guest lists have been updated.)

ABC This Week: Rahm Emanuel, White House chief of staff-designate. George Will, Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Cynthia Tucker, Newsweek's Fareed Zakaria and former White House adviser David Gergen.Illinois Democrat Representative Rahm Emanuel former Bill Clinton aide now White House chief of staff for Barack Obama

CBS Face the Nation: Obama Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, New York Times' David Brooks and Politico's John Harris.

CNN Late Edition with Wolf Blitzer: Sen. Harry Reid, Senate Majority Leader; Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger; former British prime minister Tony Blair; former U.S. Civil Rights Commission member Mary Frances Berry and NBA player Grant Hill; roundtable with Jessica Yellin and Gloria Borger of CNN and Richard Stengel of Time.

Fox News Sunday: Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) and Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.).

NBC Meet the Press: Obama-Biden transition team co-chair Valerie Jarrett; House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.); Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.) and a roundtable with White House historian Doris Kearns Goodwin, Newsweek's Jon Meacham and Chicago Sun-Times' Mary Mitchell.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photo credit: Office of Rep. Rahm Emanuel


National map of McCain-Obama presidential voting by county

November 6, 2008 |  9:28 pm

Here's a good reason why more loyal Ticket readers should take a little time to wander around elsewhere on LATimes.com. Yes, we know the map was in the newspaper. But most of our readers don't get the LA Times, silly people.

So here's a wonderful map showing the 2008 presidential voting for John McCain and Barack Obama by county, no less. Which one is yours?

Enjoy.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Countyvotemap

Credit: LATimes.com and our Ticket buddy Ben.


All the TV networks make the Obama call at once

November 4, 2008 | 11:23 pm

Few things seem to happen officially in modern American life until they are somehow ratified by being seen on TV. And it sure didn't take long for the television networks, armed with their exit polls studied all day, to proclaim Barack Obama the 44th president.

In fact, all the networks did it at once -- at 8 p.m. sharp, just as the polls closed in California.

“An African American has broken a barrier as old as the Republic,” NBC anchor Brian Williams said. “An astonishing candidate, an astonishing campaign, a seismic shift in American politics.”

With plenty of time to prepare, all the networks made the call simultaneously, pronouncing with certainty what they had prognosticated throughout the night.

Our meticulous colleague Matea Gold and some of her media cohorts have the full details on the simultaneous call over on the Show Tracker blog here.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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John McCain's focus on Iowa turned out to be pointless

November 4, 2008 |  7:36 pm

The Ticket, more than a month ago, raised a question many others eventually posed -- why was John McCain campaigning in Iowa?

It didn't seem to make much sense in late September, with poll after poll showing Barack Obama with a solid lead there.

True, President Bush, after losing Iowa in 2000, had won it in his 2004 reelection bid. But since then, the state Democratic Party had staged a comeback. And more importantly, Obama seemed to have a strong hold on the state, which began in early 2007 when he started organizing for the Iowa Democratic caucuses.

It was his victory in those caucuses that set him on the path that will culminate in his presidential election later tonight, when the three West Coast states start reporting their vote.

The McCain camp, though, kept insisting that their own polling and the word from Iowa Republicans showed that the state remained competitive.

And so McCain kept dropping in on the state throughout October.

As it turned out, it was time wasted. As the independent surveys had indicated, the state was a slam-dunk for Obama. The moment the polls closed there tonight, every network reported that he would carry its 7 electoral votes.

-- Don Frederick



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