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Democrats like to say that, this year, they finally will dig into the Republicans’ traditional advantage among evangelical voters. After all, social conservatives are skeptical of John McCain, and Barack Obama seems so comfortable talking about his faith (at least when his former pastor isn’t involved).
But a new analysis from the nonpartisan Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, finds that Obama is doing just as badly among white evangelical voters as his party’s 2004 nominee was at this point.
The report, based on a national Pew poll conducted last month, found that just 25% of white evangelicals support Obama, compared to the 26% who said they backed John F. Kerry’s candidacy in the summer of 2004. (Kerry wound up winning just 21% of that group, according to exit polls.)
The Pew analysis found McCain winning 61% of white evangelicals, and most of the remaining 14% of those polled said they did not know what candidate they would support. McCain’s big margin was not necessarily good news for the presumptive GOP candidate, since President Bush at this point four years ago was winning 69% (and, according to exit polls, took 78% in the end).
The bottom line is that neither Obama nor McCain is where they'd hope to be among this important voting bloc. And both are courting it heavily –- Obama with his recent speech endorsing government funding for faith-based social service agencies and McCain through his support for a California measure to ban same-sex marriage.
-- Peter Wallsten
There are always at least two sides to everything in politics. The up-side for Barack Obama of the persistent controversy over the Rev. Jeremiah Wright's black militancy and racist sermons was that it sure drove home the point to millions of thinking voters that the Illinois senator was attending a Christian church, which countered the even-more persistent online rumors about Obama being Muslim.
Remember the native costume photo that was or was not promulgated by the Hillary Clinton campaign way back when she thought she had a chance to win the nomination? It's still going around online.
But now comes another unwelcome development for Obama's camp.
The cover of this week's New Yorker magazine depicts Obama in one-piece Muslim garb and headdress fist-bumping his booted, Afro-wearing wife Michelle in camo clothes with an AK-47 and ammo-belt slung over her shoulder beneath a portrait of Osama bin-Laden while the American flag burns in the fireplace -- in the presidential Oval Office.
It's got everything incendiary except a vest bomb. Which is what should telegraph to most people that it's way over-the-top and, therefore, satire.
But politicians don't like satire because it's subject to differing interpretations.
Obama declined comment today, seeking not to elevate its importance. But, in a move that certainly drew more attention to a commercial decision with no hope of changing it, his campaign issued a statement by Bill Burton which Mike Allen of Politico.com reported as, "“The New Yorker may think, as one of their staff explained to us, that their cover is a satirical lampoon of the caricature Sen. Obama's right-wing critics have tried to create. But most readers will see it as tasteless and offensive. And we agree."
The McCain campaign immediately e-mailed a similar statement from Tucker Bounds: “We completely agree with the Obama campaign, it’s tasteless and offensive.”
Of course, the McCain people must say that, despite some staff no doubt chuckling behind closed doors over their opponent's new challenge. That's the problem with satire. A lot of people won't get the joke. Or won't want to. And will use it for non-humorous purposes, which isn't the New Yorker's fault.
A problem is there's no caption on the cover to ensure that everyone gets the ha-ha-we've-collected-almost-every-cliched-rumor-about-Obama-in-one-place-in-order-to--make-fun-of-them punchline.
So you'll no  doubt see this image making the internet rounds in coming months by people who don't want to see the satire. And won't include the magazine's press release saying, "“On the cover of the July 21, 2008, issue of The New Yorker, in ‘The Politics of Fear,’ artist Barry Blitt satirizes the use of scare tactics and misinformation in the presidential election to derail Barack Obama’s campaign.”
In that issue is a non-satirical piece by Ryan Lizza about Obama's political start in Chicago. The Chicago Tribune respected columnist Clarence Page, an African American, said he found the cover "quite within the normal bounds of journalism."
Little doubt the incendiary magazine cover accomplished its intent of attracting attention on an otherwise slow-news summer Sunday. It'll probably sell more magazines too. And more Mylanta for the Obama offices.
--Andrew Malcolm
(By the way here's the actual article that goes with this satirical/incendiary cover. Warning: It's very long.)
This is another in a continuing series of conversations between The Ticket and those people involved in many aspects of modern American presidential politics, which explore the inner workings of this complex business.
This item is the first of a two-part conversation with Ralph Reed, a Republican political strategist who's been involved in seven presidential campaigns, including as senior advisor to both campaigns of George W. Bush. He has not endorsed or donated to any presidential campaign yet, but is on the host committee for a John McCain event next month in Atlanta.
Reed was the first executive director 15 years ago of the Christian Coalition and currently runs Century Strategies, an Atlanta public relations firm that advises major corporations. He's also the author of a new book, a novel titled "Dark Horse," published by Simon & Schuster.
In this item, Reed examines the GOP side of the 2008 presidential race and talks about his surprise at the outcome of those primaries, the difficulties for the party in 2008, what McCain needs to avoid between now and Nov. 4, and the genesis of his book.
TOTT: What most surprised you about the outcome of the Republican primaries?
Reed: John McCain winning the nomination after essentially running out of money and laying off most of his staff in the summer of 2007 was amazing. His win in New Hampshire was a real Lazarus moment.
Mike Huckabee doing so well in Iowa and then winning a string of later primaries showed the continuing strength of the evangelical vote and underscored the importance of good candidate skills.
TOTT: McCain seems to have had some trouble gaining traction in this three-month general election head start. How do you explain this and do you see the latest reorganization in his camp having any effects, positive or negative?
Reed: Steve Schmidt, Mike DuHaime, Nicole Wallace and the rest of the people playing new and important roles at the McCain campaign are extremely capable. I worked with all of them in the 2004 Bush-Cheney campaign and found them to be professional, talented and smart.
They'll do a good job, but it's a tough environment for Republicans this year. If they let the election be about style, Obama will be hard to beat. The McCain campaign needs to make the election about issues and substance. If they do, McCain will win.
TOTT: Given the historical reservations toward Sen. McCain in the evangelical community, do you think most of them will or are coming around to him, given the Democratic alternative? Or is your reading that they'll likely sit this one out on Nov. 4? What should McCain do about it?
Reed: I think they're highly unlikely to sit it out because the stakes are so high. In fact, this election...
Read more Ticket Chat: Ralph Reed, author and GOP strategist, on the '08 race »
The prospect of a freewheeling approach to cobbling together the Republican Party platform this summer looms as a possible headache for John McCain, given a plan by conservatives, reported this week by the Washington Post, "to prevent his views on global warming, immigration, stem cell research and campaign finance from becoming enshrined" in the document.
Barack Obama, for his part, apparently is unworried that some liberals, restive in thinking that he is tacking toward the political middle a bit too much these days (a concern detailed most vividly in this New York Times column by Bob Herbert), will make for a chaotic platform-making process.
Indeed, today his campaign unveiled a plan that envisions "everyday people all across America" holding mini-platform meetings later this month.
 How better to deal with summer doldrums?
A release on Obama's website asserts: "Traditionally, the platform is written by paid professionals and then presented to the American people. This year, that’s going to change."
Maybe, maybe not. But we'd like to offer a tweak to the name the Obama folks have attached to the initiative.
They're calling it "Listening to America: the Democratic Platform for Change."
We much prefer the moniker coined by our Times colleague Bill Loving: Wiki-platform.
Perhaps "paid professionals" won't be writing the platform, but a party pro will be in charge of the committee that drafts it -- Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano (pictured above), the Obama campaign announced. (She gets mentions as a potential vice presidential nominee, though that isn't a particularly exclusive club at the moment.)
With the convention due to start in less than seven weeks, the real challenge for Obama doesn't involve a manifesto that virtually no one will read. Rather, as the Wall Street Journal reminded today (in a piece requiring a signup to read fully online), it is "whether and how" Hillary Clinton's name is placed in nomination at the gathering in Denver.
--Don Frederick
Photo credit: Associated Press
Well, now he'll have a date for the inaugural ball -- though there are still a few hurdles left to getting an invitation. But Charlie Crist, Florida governor and a high entry on most lists of potential Republican veep contenders, is getting married.
Our cousins at The Swamp and the Central Florida Political Pulse have the details. The
bride-to-be and
Crist's flame of the past nine months is Carole Rome, 38, president of her family's century-old costume business, where some of the costumes are of the variety not likely to go over well with the Christian right (may we direct you to Devilicious and Marie Antoinette). Rome and ex-husband, Todd Rome, CEO of Blue Star Jets, have two children, ages 11 and 9. Crist, 51, was married briefly in his early 20s and has no children.
Crist says they're planning a fall wedding in St. Petersburg, where he lives, though that calendar could get awfully crowded if John McCain taps him. And if the Republicans believe Crist on the ticket can land them Florida, you can bet they'll be lobbying hard, though the last word was that Mitt Romney was topping the contender list.
Crist, you'll remember on this day set aside for barbecuing, was one of the trio that McCain invited to his Arizona spread on Memorial Day weekend, the launch of barbecue season, for a little R&R and presumed political talk. Romney and Bobby Jindal were the other two touted guests, all considered to be under consideration by McCain as possible running mates.
-- Scott Martelle
Photo: Carole Rome with Charlie Crist; credit: Associated Press
Barack Obama got good reviews from some conservative quarters after his Tuesday speech outlining his plan for building upon the faith-based initiative established by President Bush.
But John McCain is getting better news from the right -- signs of a real push by conservative Christian leaders to coalesce on his behalf.
 First, a taste of the reaction to the Obama speech in Ohio.
During an appearance Tuesday night on MSNBC, Pat Buchanan said that although Obama wouldn't "win over the evangelicals," his embrace of the federal program that aimed to make it easier to funnel tax money to religious-based charities would "diminish some of the hostility" toward him among social conservatives.
Added Buchanan: "It looks like he's reaching out to them. ... It's a win for him."
And David Brody, senior national correspondent for the Christian Broadcast Network, said on CNN today that the reaction to Obama's speech within the community he covered was "relatively positive." Obama, he added, "has seemed to be one step ahead when it comes to this faith and politics intersection."
Brody, meanwhile, details on his website a huge step that a major figure on the religious right has taken to build support for McCain.
Phil Burress, head of the Ohio-based Citizens for Community Values, not so long ago said of McCain: "We don't like him and he doesn't like us." But, as Brody relates, Burress is now in McCain's corner, following a sit-down with him. Indeed, the evangelical honcho sent out a note to allies which wraps up by saying: "I was once one of those people who said 'no way' to Senator John McCain as President. No longer. The stakes are too high. And if Obama wins I need to able to get up on November 5th, look at myself in the mirror, and when I pray, say, 'Lord, I did all that I could.' "
Burress also was among about 100 conservative Christian leaders who met in Denver on Tuesday and "agreed to unite behind" McCain's candidacy, Time magazine's Michael Scherer reports.
In a comment comparable to the concluding line in Burress' missive, one of those at the get-together explained the backing for McCain partly as a reaction to Obama.
Mat Staver, head of a group called Liberty Counsel and a former Mike Huckabee supporter, told Scherer: "Collectively we feel that [McCain] will support and advance those moral values that we hold much greater than Obama, who in our view will decimate moral values."
The full story can be read here.
Noticeably absent from the meeting ...
Read more Religious right starts to consolidate for John McCain »
Our colleague Dan Morain chatted up American Values' Gary Bauer Tuesday about gay marriage and Barack Obama's letter stating his opposition to a California ballot initiative (John McCain supports it). Morain points out that two other states will have similar measures on their fall ballot -- Arizona and Florida. While polls show California pretty safe for Obama and Arizona similarly so for McCain, a gay-marriage fight in Florida could have scale-tipp ing consequences.
Bauer, founder of the conservative Campaign for Working Families political action committee, said he hasn't decided whether to donate to California's "incredibly important" measure. "If the pro-same-sex marriage forces cannot win in California and Florida, it means that the people of this country still are resistant to radical social change," Bauer said.
Bauer said he was "somewhat heartened when Barack Obama said … that it should be a state decision" but that given Obama's recent statements opposing the California measure, "the idea that he is agnostic about this question doesn’t hold up any more."
"It is a major difference between the two candidates," Bauer said. "Before it is all over, we’ll have a great debate on tax policy, on foreign policy and on this fundamental question of what is the status of marriage."
Bauer said that John McCain and Barack Obama "did not seem far apart a few months ago" on gay marriage. "Now they are quite at odds with each other. It is something that voters in other states are looking at. When you have a significant number of other states that have voted to preserve marriage, it is the sort of thing that could hurt Obama."
Most significant: Obama "has very much been making a play for evangelical voters, suggesting that there would be no reason that an evangelical should vote against him. It becomes harder to make that case."
-- Scott Martelle
Photo provided by American Values
With friends like these, why do rivals bother with opposition researchers? Rudy Giuliani was on CNN Tuesday talking about John McCain and the presidential campaign, and said that he still thinks he was the best choice to be president. Giuliani was there to buff up McCain and his foreign policy credentials in the w ake of the rock Wesley Clark tossed the other day.
When asked by interviewer John Roberts whether he thought he was better qualified than McCain to run the country, Giuliani said, "I thought I was best-qualified to be president." (The video is here, and this exchange comes around the 3:12 mark).
Now not many politicians would leave a race as Giuliani did and say later, "You know, the voters were right, I wasn't the best choice." Political egos don't cut that way. But the McCain camp had to wince, assuming they're getting CNN down there in Colombia. The idea behind sending surrogates out is to have them make you look good, not make you look like a consolation prize.
Throughout the interview, Giuliani sounded as much like a candidate as a surrogate, talking up his own political resume in a session that had a peculiar deja vu feeling to it. But Giuliani assured Roberts, "I'm not a candidate. I'm not a choice." Not at the moment, no, but ...
-- Scott Martelle
Photo: Gary Friedman / Los Angeles Times
Nearly five months after John McCain effectively locked down the Republican presidential nomination, many leaders of the religious right remain underwhelmed. A new Newsweek article asserts that McCain's candidacy has "tamped down" enthusiasm among these conservatives, "exposing fractures that make a rallying of the troops in the pews unlikely."
The recent L.A. Times/Bloomberg national poll spotlighted a pronounced "passion gap" in the presidential race, with fully 81% of Barack Obama supporters declaring themselves fired up about his candidacy and only 45% of the McCain backers feeling likewise about their man.
And here's an even more concrete sign of the difficulty McCain has been having rallying core Republicans, courtesy of a Gannett News Service story published Monday: "Of the more than 900 Hoosiers who contributed at least $2,000 to President Bush's re-election campaign, only about 50 had contributed to the Arizona senator by the end of [May], according to a review of campaign disclosure reports...."
McCain headlines a fundraiser in Indiana today, so he'll no doubt reel in some of those heretofore reticent givers. He then heads off on a short jaunt to Colombia and Mexico (a trip that The Times' Mark Barabak, in a Sunday story, termed part of the "unusual path" McCain is pursuing in his White House bid).
-- Don Frederick
We all remember John McCain's "bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran" mini-aria, and many of us have caught McCain during his late-night talk show appearances. He can be funny (though the laughs at his reworking the Beach Boys' "Barbara Ann" were far fewer than he may have anticipated). But can comedy kill the campaign?
Gawker has a piece (which includes some language inappropriate for this blog and which we want to warn readers about) on McCain's sense of humor and parallels to Ronald Reagan. It concludes McCain is no Gipper.
What strikes us as interesting is the issue of timing the piece raises. McCain made his "bomb Iran" joke more than a year ago -- before before his spectacular political collapse and resurrection. In many ways, McCain got a pass then. There was some backlash from people who likely wouldn't support McCain anyway, but the feeling was his campaign was moribund anyway, and the mini-flap quickly faded.
But what would happen if McCain cracked that joke now? Would that kind of stumble derail him? Or would it just further separate the pro-war from the antiwar votes?
Politics -- it's all in the timing.
-- Scott Martelle
So Mike Huckabee told the world the other day that if John McCain calls, he'd be happy to be his running mate, but that he doesn't expect McCain to call. Good thing Huckabee's not waiting by the phone. The folks over at Politico have a piece this morning saying the call could well go to Mitt Romney. But, of course, at this stage no one knows, as our colleague Doyle McManus points out with his own list of bandied-about names.
McCain doesn't need to rush. He doesn't need a r unning mate until the Republican National Convention, scheduled for Sept. 1-4, which comes after the Democratic National Convention, set for Aug. 25-28. Advantage goes to McCain, since he gets to see what the Democratic slate will look like before he makes his call. And yes, he can pick a running mate earlier to make himself look decisive and unconcerned about political ramifications (which ties into his Straight Talk theme) but, chances are, he'll keep his cards hidden until he has to play.
So why Romney? As Politico points out, he's gone through the media vetting process, has access to cash fountains through his business connections and fellow Mormons, and plays well in his birth state of Michigan, which could be crucial in picking the winner.
The downside? The chemistry between McCain and Romney isn't exactly "Let's spend the next eight years together, shall we?" It's more like: "Does he have to come to this meeting? Can't we just send him to a state funeral somewhere?"
The other top names on McCain's list, per Politico, are former Ohio congressman and White House budget director Rob Portman -- not exactly a household name -- and John Thune of South Dakota, who knocked minority leader Tom Daschle out of the Senate in 2004.
Now it's your turn. Who do you figure? And no, not Dick Cheney -- he's not in charge of the search committee. The comment section is open below.
-- Scott Martelle
Photo credit: Mark Boster/Los Angeles Times
MONTREAT, North Carolina -- Sunday morning, John McCain made a (relatively) last-minute stop in North Carolina to pay a visit to the world’s best-known evangelist, the Rev. Billy Graham, and his son, the Rev. Franklin Graham, in the Blue Ridge Mountains. There was also a cameo appearance by a country music star, which we’ll get to in a moment.
McCain planned the stop to pay homage to the man who has counseled every American president for the last half century. To say that the Graham retreat was out of the way is an understatement -- about a 45-minute drive from the airport, up a very windy road that did not look entirely suitable for a motorcade of brawny SUVs. The homestead, high atop a forested hill, was quite modest, at least from the outside (reporters were not invited in). The house is a large brown shingled cabin with a tall rough-hewn stone chimney, a screen door and an old iron wheel at the front door.
The visit came at the behest of the presumptive Republican nominee, who has had a somewhat rocky relationship with Christian evangelicals. We know McCain asked for the meeting because about 15 minutes after it ended, his campaign released a statement from Franklin Graham saying just that: "Sen. McCain’s office had requested a meeting …and we appreciate the effort he made to travel to my father’s home," the younger Graham said. "I was impressed by his personal faith and his moral clarity on important social issues facing America today."
Graham added that both he and McCain have sons in the military and both have a common interest in aviation. The Grahams, as ministers, do not endorse candidates. And McCain didn't even ask for their vote, he told reporters later during an impromptu press conference on the tarmac in Asheville.
"We had an excellent conversation," said McCain, as five reporters put their voice recorders about three inches from his face to catch what he was saying, since his Gulfstream jet had already fired up its engines. "Bill Graham recalled that during the Vietnam War when I was in prison, he visited my parents in Hawaii twice and he and my mother and father prayed together for me, and I expressed my appreciation for that a long time ago.…I am very grateful for the time they spent with me."
The meeting generated no news but McCain got a handy souvenir photo of himself sitting between the Grahams, and that certainly won’t hurt him with evangelicals, some of whom don’t find him suitably conservative and are still offended by what some believe was his calculated attempt to garner moderate votes in 2000.
McCain then condemned Pat Robertson and the Rev. Jerry Falwell as "agents of intolerance" during the campaign. By 2006, however, with his eye on the White House again, he’d changed his tune, telling Tim Russert that he no longer would apply that label to Falwell. A short time later, McCain gave the commencement speech at Falwell’s Liberty University.
Oh, about that country music star. A half-hour into the senator’s visit, singer Ricky Skaggs -- a bearish middle-aged guy with gray hair -- pulled up the driveway and made his way into the house. He was scheduled to have lunch with the Grahams. A short time later, Franklin Graham and Skaggs stepped onto the small porch to bid the senator goodbye.
-- Robin Abcarian
Photo: LM Otero/Associated Press
Some real sharp arrows in the Republican quiver there in Washington.
GOP members of the House of Representatives, worried over a growing fundraising gap with Democratic members of Congress, commissioned a study to figure out why they had unexpectedly lost three recent special House elections, including the suburban Chicago seat held so long by former speaker R. Dennis Hastert.
One reason: The Democratic candidates got more votes. Check.
A second reason: Customary Republican campaign themes did not resonate with local voters this time. Check.
And third: The candidates could not overcome "the negative perception of the national party" in the three special elections in once-safe Republican districts in Illinois, Mississippi and Louisiana. Ouch.
The report suggested Republican candidates this fall demonstrate "deep empathy towards the voters" and rely more on local issues than national ones. Imagine that, local voters more concerned about local issues than national ones far away.
According to the report by Associated Press Special Correspondent David Espo, GOP members are also worried over fundraising numbers, which show the National Republican Congressional Committee has $6.7 million in the bank, compared to $47.2 million for the Democrats.
Other than that, a historically unpopular president, the continuing Iraq war, excitement generated by the long Democratic presidential primary struggle, millions of new voters, high gas prices, a sagging economy and declining numbers admitting to be Republican, things look really pretty good for the party of Lincoln come Nov. 4.
--Andrew Malcolm
Mike Huckabee says that while he'd love to be asked -- and would accept -- he doubts John McCain will pick him for his running mate. And on the other side, he figures Barack Obama isn't likely to ask Hillary Clinton, either.
Huckabee gave his predictions to Reuters during a trip to Japan (the video is below), and it could be he's just warming up, spring training-style, for his new gig as a political commentator for Fox News. But a voice from the trenches is always worth a listen.
On McCain, Huckabee sounded like a true loyal party figure. "I want him to define how he's going to win, and I want to help him win," Huckabee said. "That may not involve me [as a running mate]. And I'm not sure that I'm the right fit for him. That's something only he can know."
Huckabee, you'll recall, was the last speed bump McCain hit on his way to sealing the Republican nomination-- well, except for Ron Paul. And Huckabee was the favorite, for a time, of the party's once-powerful social-conservative wing, despite some misgivings over his tax-and-spending policies as governor of Arkansas.
So why doesn't Huckabee think Obama will pick Clinton? "There's some real tension, not just between the two principals, but between their inner circles and down in the ranks of their supporters that would be very hard to overcome in a short period of time," Huckabee said. "People who voted for Hillary will end up voting for Obama generally, but I'm not sure that they're ready to just have the wedding and, you know, cut the cake."
-- Scott Martelle
Photo credit: Jay L. Clendenin / Los Angeles Times
John McCain has been trying hard of late to link Barack Obama with Jimmy Carter in the public consciousness, hoping that the "ineffectual" label that many voters affix to the former president will prove transferable.
 But Grover Norquist -- the conservative activist who specializes in promoting an anti-tax agenda and, more generally, revels in the role of agent provocateur -- is offering a different comparison.
Norquist dropped by The Times' Washington bureau today and, as part of his negative critique of Obama's liberal stances on economic issues and other matters, he termed the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee "John Kerry with a tan."
Since Norquist isn't running for anything, he can get away with such remarks; we doubt McCain will be incorporating the line into his speeches anytime soon.
Norquist's clout on the right is such, however, that McCain and his aides will pay attention to his thoughts on who would fit well in the second spot on the GOP's presidential ticket. And in his chat with Times' reporters and editors, he was especially high on Bobby Jindal, the recently elected governor of Louisiana.
Norquist touted Jindal's success in pushing through tax-cut and ethics reform legislation during his short tenure as Louisiana's chief executive (no mention was made of the flap surrounding the governor for failing, so far, to live up to a promise to block a pay raise for state legislators).
Nominating Jindal for vice president also would generate a mother lode of contributions for Republicans from Americans of East Indian descent, Norquist predicted.
Another recipient of kind words as a veep prospect was Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota; Norquist praised his record on taxes save for one "mistake" -- approving a hike in state cigarette taxes in years past.
Norquist's most recent book is entitled "Leave Us Alone," which makes the case that Republicans can put together a post-Ronald Reagan governing coalition by appealing to voters who want government to stay out of their affairs.
Along those lines, he predicted that one reason conservative radio talk show hosts will rally behind McCain -- who many of them have been cool toward -- is that some Democratic leaders are advocating a return of the "fairness doctrine." That's the abandoned federal rule that required broadcasters to give equal time to opposing political viewpoints.
[UPDATE: John Kartch, Norquist's director of communications, e-mailed Friday with "two concerns" about the post. "One, it suggests that Grover was singling out Kerry. The entire statement was that Obama had no policy differences with Carter in 1980, [Walter] Mondale, [Michael] Dukakis, [Al] Gore or Kerry. 'Kerry with a tan,' was simply Kerry was the latest of the string. Two, to be fair to Kerry, Grover pointed out that even Kerry's reputation as a snob never went as far as Obama's contemptuous comment on middle America "clinging" to its guns and faith.]
-- Don Frederick
Photo credit: Associated Press
This is the eighth and final episode of our new video chat with Matt Welch, author of a new book exploring the personal and political personas of Sen. John McCain, the presumptive presidential nominee of the Republican Party.
This discussion focuses on McCain's thinking and the possible choices for vice presidential running mate. And a couple of the names Welch mentions may surprise you.
Here are the other video chat chapters: Part I of our conversation with Welch is available here, Part II is available here, Part III is here, Part IV is here, Part V is here, Part VI is here, Part VII is here.
And samples of Welch's past writings as a Times staffer are available here.
Thanks to our top-notch videographer Jeff Amlotte and director Michael McGehee for lending their skills. And thank you all for watching these videos over recent days.
Let us know below what you think of this occasional feature. Should we do more? Whom would you like to see chatting here on The Ticket?
--Andrew Malcolm
This is the seventh and second to last chapter in our video conversation with former Times writer, Matt Welch, who's written a new examination of the personal and political personnas of the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, Sen. John McCain of Arizona.
In this episode Welch discusses what he calls "McCain's Ron Paul problem," a smallish but very dedicated splinter group of libertarian Republicans who back the 10-term congressman from Texas. Paul captured about 1.1 million GOP primary votes this season while collecting nearly $35 million, more than McCain had for a while.
Welch sees McCain's policies of a strong federal government, though with curbed spending, combined with McCain's enduring support for the Iraq war and Paul's antipathy to what he sees as empire-building as prohibiting any kind of real rapprochement between the two camps for the Nov. 4 election.
Also McCain could risk loss of support among independents and moderates if he was to taxi too far to the right to accommodate Paulites. In a close election the Paul group's votes or their absence could make the difference between a McCain or Barack Obama presidency, as some of them are likely to drift over to Bob Barr and the Libertarian Party, although that too is split.
Part I of our conversation with Welch is available here, Part II is available here, Part III is here, Part IV is here, Part V is here, Part VI is here. Part VIII will be published on The Ticket Wednesday.
Samples of Welch's writing as a Times staffer are available here.
--Andrew Malcolm
Religion has been no small issue in the 2007-08 presidential campaigns and that's unlikely to change in the dwindling months remaining until the Nov. 4 decision day.
Many Americans have strong religious beliefs, according to a new study. But the majority remains open to interpretations of the teachings of their faith and believes in more than one way to salvation, according to the new research from the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life.
Seventy percent of people surveyed with a religious affiliation reported that many religions can lead to eternal life.
Researchers examined Americans' religious beliefs and political attitudes in the second part of a huge study on major religions in the United States.
"The fact that most Americans are not exclusive or dogmatic about their religion is a fascinating finding," said Luis Lugo, director of the Pew Forum.
"Most people will be surprised that a majority of adherents in nearly all religious traditions, including a majority of evangelical Protestants, say that there isn't just one way to salvation or to interpret the teachings of their own faith."
The study also found that politics and religion is intertwined, with Mormons among the most politically conservative and Jews, Buddhists and Hindus among the most liberal.
Katie Fretland has a full version of this study over at the Swamp.
-- Andrew Malcolm
O.K., it's the first day of summer. There's still something like 134 days until The Election. No tornadoes in sight. The annual hurricane controversies have yet to form wherever they start. Lots of lakes and sunshine outdoors. And blizzards of blabber on TV.
Hope the traffic wasn't too bad getting home. Here's a reverse birthday gift from The Ticket: What you didn't miss today:
SO MUCH FOR SUMMER IN MONTANA: Tom Brokaw will pause in writing his next book on our grandfathers and take over moderating "Meet the Press" through the election. Not Tim Russert, of course, but wise and he won't talk about the Bills who are hopeless until poor Jim Kelly returns. (See video below.)
If NBC is not going the blonde-in-short-skirt route like over at Fox and since Bob Schieffer is under contract elsewhere, our top permanent nominee is Chuck Todd, (not pictured here) who clearly knows everything about politics and says it succinctly. Seriously.
WHY NOT JUST ARM EVERYBODY ON AIRPLANES? Our blogging colleague James Oliphant over at the Swamp has joined the periodic chorus wondering about Virginia Sen. James Webb as the running mate for Barack Obama.
Webb, you'll remember, is the guy who packs personal heat everywhere, which does tend to diminish disagreements on the street. Obama does need a military mate because he's talked so much about opposing war and the simple peacemaking power of sitdowns with dictators. Also, he seems unlikely to pick Geraldine Ferraro.
Being a turncoat Republican and former Reaganite will surely....
Read more Ticket Takings: A Sunday full of Richardson, Webb, Daschle, Fiorina and Richardson »
We're in the thick of a pretty intense presidential campaign, but that doesn't mean all the scores from the 2004 election have been settled.
Veterans who served with John Kerry during the Vietnam  War released a letter and documents this week that they hope will put the lie to claims that Kerry's Navy service was anything less than exemplary.
The missive was delivered Thursday to Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens, who said in November that he would pay $1 million to anyone who could disprove even a single claim made against Kerry by the "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth."
That group launched a series of television ads against the Massachusetts senator and 2004 Democratic presidential nominee that undercut a crucial piece of his biography -- that he was a courageous war hero. Many Democrats felt the accusations helped kill Kerry's chances of defeating President Bush, so much so that they created a new verb form for unfair political attacks -- "Swift boating."
In their letter to Pickens, 10 of Kerry's comrades in arms said they were providing conclusive proof that the opposition group "lied about our skipper's and our service in Vietnam and in so doing, damaged our reputations and attacked the quality of our service to country."
The 15-page letter and 42 pages of Navy reports and other documentation focus principally on a 1969 engagement in which three boats under Kerry's supervision counterattacked after an ambush on a tributary of the Bay Hap River.
Kerry won a Silver Star for his actions, but critics contended he had exaggerated the incident and his own heroism. In this week's response, Kerry's crew offers details, after-action reports and the medal citation to prove that Kerry led with valor.
One of the most telling rebuttals to the anti-Kerry camp came from Bill Rood, who commanded one of the other swift boats that day. Rood, who went on ...
Read more John Kerry's Swift Boat pals to T. Boone: Cough up $1 million »
This is Part II of The Ticket's first video chat series, an eight-part conversation with author Matt Welch on his new book, "John McCain: The Myth of a Maverick."
The book is not a biography but an exploration of the McCain persona, an intriguing combination of independence, military discipline and rebellion, with a strong whiff of bad boy. In this video episode Welch, a former L.A. Times writer, describes how he came to discover much about McCain through the serial confessions the senator makes about himself throughout his own books. And what that revealed about the Republican nominee's personal way of thinking.
Part I of this conversation with Welch can be seen by clicking here. Other parts will be published on The Ticket in coming days.
-- Andrew Malcolm
Ross Perot, the little guy with the big ears from the big state who helped ensure the 1992 reelection defeat of Pres. George  H. W. Bush, is back.
And the Texan's still got his charts, just like the ones he used to prop up on TV during his expensive vanity presidential campaigns of 1992 and 1996.
Our brother blogger Tom Petruno, over at the informative Money & Co. blog, reports that Perot has just launched a new website because he's worried about government budget deficits and, he says, time is running out.
The 77-year-old Perot (gee, that's even older than Nader or Paul!) calls himself the father of fiscal charts. Tom's got the whole story right here right now.
-- Andrew Malcolm
Photo credit: AP
As consumers of politics, Americans watch these campaign events unfold before their eyes on TV or in person and they can only imagine the countless hours of planning behind each one. They probably don't even think about that part.
But as part of a broad remake of its Web operations in recent days, the John McCain campaign has launched a new blog, The McCain Report, which posts several items a day. It includes everything from a surprising tribute to Sen. Hillary Clinton's Democratic campaign to taking a documented shot at a specific New York Times reporter for "carrying water for Team Obama again."
Right on the redesigned website's homepage in the middle upper right is a tab called "Strategy." Click on that and watch a 15-minute PowerPoint demonstration led by Campaign Manager Rick Davis.
It fits in with the McCain Straight Talk image because campaigns are not normally comfortable laying out such detailed presentations for just anyone to see. These are the kinds of demonstrations that go on daily inside campaign conference rooms -- and they're stopped if anyone other than the invited walks in.
Whether or not you like McCain as a candidate, the fast-moving video is....
Read more A video view inside the campaign strategy of John McCain »
(UPDATE: Though Ron Paul stopped short of telling supporters in Texas Thursday night that he was quitting, his campaign website posted a statement overnight that he is indeed packing it in. "It is time now to take the energy this campaign has awakened and channel it into long-term efforts to take back our country," Paul said.)
Throughout yesterday afternoon and evening news reports flashed all over the Internet that Republican Rep. Ron Paul was going to officially end his hopeless presidential campaign.
ABC News said the campaign, "a pugnacious, ideological crusade against big government and interventionist leani ngs in the Republican party, will officially end Thursday at a rally outside the Texas GOP's convention."
A European wire service that we won't identify (we'll call it AFP) said: "Maverick Republican White House candidate Ron Paul, a rival to his party's presumptive nominee John McCain, announced late Thursday he is dropping out of the U.S. presidential race."
A certain Washington blog about the campaign Trail reported last night: "Texas Rep. Ron Paul is officially ending his presidential campaign." Even keen observer and enthusiastic Ron Paul supporter Lew Rockwell appeared to give up hope.
But just you wait one Texas minute! We know better than that here at The Ticket.
Once before, three months ago, Paul put out a video message to his hundreds of thousands of supporters saying he was "winding down" his campaign. And we fell for that one, hook, line and libertarian sinker. We wrote that the 72-year-old, 10-term congressman "appears to be....
Read more UPDATE: Hold on! Ron Paul did NOT quit the GOP presidential race »
On this, the first anniversary of our Top of the Ticket blog, we are reminded of the mercurial, unpredictable nature of U.S. politics -- part of what makes what we do so fascinating.
Our goal -- one of us on the East Coast and the other on the far more important or at least less humid West Coast -- was to write about Campaign '08 virtually around the clock.
Our second-ever posting, 12 months ago today, previewed an upcoming L.A. Times/Bloomberg Poll; later in the day, we detailed the results of the nationwide survey. The findings were in line with other polls of the time.
In the Republican presidential race, which then seemed the most likely to last deep into the primary season, Rudy Giuliani was perched in first place. His lead wasn't overwhelming, but it was strong enough that he appeared certain to remain a major contender.
His liberal record on social issues loomed as an obvious liability within his party, but his tough-on-terrorism message was attracting substantial support from moderates and GOP-leaning independents.
His major headache among rivals last June was an as-yet-undeclared candidate who was riding a wave as the great conservative hope -- Fred Thompson. He ran a strong second in the poll.
Lagging far behind were John McCain and Mitt Romney, each barely with double-digit support. In our preview posting, we were especially scornful of McCain, noting sarcastically (and foolishly, as it turned out) that in the poll, he found himself "in heated competition with the 'Don't Know' category."
Meriting no mention from us was Mike Huckabee, one of several back-of-the-pack candidates barely earning any support across the country.
The Democratic race, at that point, seemed so much more cut-and-dried.
Hillary Clinton was the clear front-runner; Barack Obama was just as clearly ...
Read more Top of the Ticket, the start of Year Two »
Our colleague Robin Abcarian has a good piece over on The Times' Campaign '08 page and, being the great writer that she is, she sums it up best herself with her lede: "They loved to hate Hillary Rodham Clinton. They loved to hate Teresa Heinz Kerry. And now, it appears, conservative voices are energetically taking on Michelle Obama."
Abcarian delves into the Tennessee Republican Party's Web video mocking Obama's "For the first time in my adult lifetime, I am really proud of my country" comment and how it will echo through the fall election. More significantly, the piece raises the question of whether a candidate's spouse is fair game. There are several ways to slice that up, but you have to figure that if a spouse is out t here on the campaign trail, the spouse -- be it Obama, Bill Clinton or Cindy McCain -- is fair game, for | |
