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On this, the first anniversary of our Top of the Ticket blog, we are reminded of the mercurial, unpredictable nature of U.S. politics -- part of what makes what we do so fascinating.
Our goal -- one of us on the East Coast and the other on the far more important or at least less humid West Coast -- was to write about Campaign '08 virtually around the clock.
Our second-ever posting, 12 months ago today, previewed an upcoming L.A. Times/Bloomberg Poll; later in the day, we detailed the results of the nationwide survey. The findings were in line with other polls of the time.
In the Republican presidential race, which then seemed the most likely to last deep into the primary season, Rudy Giuliani was perched in first place. His lead wasn't overwhelming, but it was strong enough that he appeared certain to remain a major contender.
His liberal record on social issues loomed as an obvious liability within his party, but his tough-on-terrorism message was attracting substantial support from moderates and GOP-leaning independents.
His major headache among rivals last June was an as-yet-undeclared candidate who was riding a wave as the great conservative hope -- Fred Thompson. He ran a strong second in the poll.
Lagging far behind were John McCain and Mitt Romney, each barely with double-digit support. In our preview posting, we were especially scornful of McCain, noting sarcastically (and foolishly, as it turned out) that in the poll, he found himself "in heated competition with the 'Don't Know' category."
Meriting no mention from us was Mike Huckabee, one of several back-of-the-pack candidates barely earning any support across the country.
The Democratic race, at that point, seemed so much more cut-and-dried.
Hillary Clinton was the clear front-runner; Barack Obama was just as clearly ...
Read more Top of the Ticket, the start of Year Two »
Barack Obama ultimately disrespected Kentucky even more than he did West Virginia; he at least made an 11th-hour stop (albeit a brief one) in the latter state the day before its presidential primary last Tuesday.
In the walk-up to Kentucky's nomination contest this Tuesday, the closest he's come to its borders was when he was at home in Chicago on Thursday.**
Since then, he's gone off to South Dakota, Oregon (which also has a primary Tuesday, and where he was greeted by a massive crowd, at left, on Sunday) and Montana (June 3). Tuesday night will find him in Iowa -- not only the site of the caucus win that first fueled his candidacy, but a likely key swing state come November.
Obama's hands-off approach to West Virginia and Kentucky is striking to us on two counts.
One, public protestations notwithstanding, his willingness to concede them to Hillary Clinton in the Democratic race is an unmistakable signal that as he and his aides look toward the general election, neither state figures in its Electoral College calculations. (They are not alone in this assumption -- an astute overlook of the electoral map posted on Salon.com late last week by Democratic pollster Paul Maslin did not include either on the list of 17 states he views as competitive, to varying degrees, in an Obama-John McCain match-up.)
Secondly, it caused us to hark back to the very early stages of the campaign and wonder: What if Clinton had followed the controversial advice of her then-deputy campaign manager, Mike Henry, and taken a pass on a full-fledged effort to win the Jan. 3 caucuses in Iowa?
It was almost exactly a year ago -- May 21 -- that Henry (who left the campaign shortly after Campaign Manager Patti Solis Doyle was replaced early this year) wrote an in-house memo ...
Read more What if Hillary Clinton had treated Iowa like Barack Obama has Ky. and W. Va.? »
Columnist George Will channeled his inner William Faulkner in reflecting on the dire straits Hillary Clinton faces in her pursuit of the Democratic presidential nomination. 
Pundits galore wrote words aplenty today on the same topic, but no others did so in a sentence (yes, a la Faulkner, a single twisting sentence) as audicious as the one produced by the erudite Will. We commend it to your attention, forthwith: After Tuesday's split decisions in Indiana and North Carolina, Clinton, the Yankee Clipperette, can, and hence eventually will, creatively argue that she is really ahead of Barack Obama, or at any rate she is sort of tied, mathematically or morally or something, in popular votes, or delegates, or some combination of the two, as determined by Fermat's Last Theorem,** or something, in states whose names begin with vowels, or maybe consonants, or perhaps some mixture of the two as determined by listening to a recording of the Beach Boys' "Help Me, Rhonda" played backward, or whatever other formula is most helpful to her, and counting the votes she received in Michigan, where hers was the only contending name on the ballot (her chief rivals, quaintly obeying their party's rules, boycotted the state, which had violated the party's rules for scheduling primaries), and counting the votes she received in Florida, which, like Michigan, was a scofflaw and where no one campaigned, and dividing Obama's delegate advantage in caucus states by pi multiplied by the square root of Yankee Stadium's Zip code.
The rest of the piece can be read here.
-- Don Frederick
** A theorem stating that the equation an + bn = cn has no solution if a, b, and c are positive integers and if n is an integer greater than 2.
Photo credit: ABC
If anybody thought the Ron Paul Revolution had expired, they need to rethink that one.
Clearly, the 72-year-old libertarian-minded Texas representative was not going to win the Republican Party's nomination this year with his 12, 20 or 42 delegates, whomever you believe. Sen. John McCain already has enough to win the GOP nod in St. Paul in September. So Paul has taken his well-funded campaign and gone rather underground to the local level where his loyal Paulunteers are organizin g and taking over numerous county party operations in several states.
Quietly, beneath the political radar of the Republican Party establishment and mainstream media, they're laboring at the local level. Last month Paul forces read the party rule book in Missouri and elected about a third of the delegates to the state convention that will pick the delegates to the national convention.
Last weekend in Nevada they drove through a rules change in the state party convention that halted the approval of pre-approved slates of convention delegates as a means to eventually substitute their own supporters to travel to St. Paul and boost Paul's delegate totals for platform and other struggles this fall.
Using sophisticated communications techniques on the Nevada convention floor in Reno, Paul supporters transmitted mass text messaging to maneuver and direct their troops. When Paul appeared to speak, the ovation was thunderous.
At other times they shouted down the convention chair, Sen. Bob Beers. Taken by surprise the convention organizers and the McCain camp, which for instance had no supply of campaign signs to compete with the blizzard of Paul signs, eventually adjourned the convention in chaos without electing any delegates.
The excuse was the expiration of the convention's contract with the host casino. No new convention date was announced. The Ron Paul crews move on to their next target.
--Andrew Malcolm
Photo Credit: RonPaul.com
Most Democrats remain squarely focused on the matters at hand: Who will win their presidential nomination and when will that be determined?
A cadre of party leaders, however, are looking down the road, mulling another conundrum: How can a repeat be avoided of the free-for-all atmosphere that surrounded the setting of this year's caucus and primary schedule?
Elaine Kamarck, a longtime party pro, is one of those whose attention already is turned toward 2012 (only partially, to be sure -- as a Democratic National Committee member, she's a superdelegate backing Hillary Clinton).
On Wednesday, Kamarck traveled to Washington from her current perch at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government and, at a gathering with a small group of journalists, discussed ways that a nomination calendar for the next presidential campaign might come together more easily.
Starting from the assumption that the immovable object and irresistible force in the process -- Iowa and New Hampshire -- will retain their starting-line roles, Kamarck said she would like to see definite dates decreed for these contests far earlier than they were in this cycle.
At the least, she said, there is strong motivation from many quarters to prevent the votes in Iowa and New Hampshire from again abutting so closely the holiday season (that, in and of itself, would be a gift for all concerned).
On the matter of "front-loading" -- the ever-growing and increasingly chaotic ...
Read more A few Democrats already have 2012 on their mind »
First they had the primary. Then they had the caucuses. And on Saturday, Texas Democrats will meet in local conventions to cast yet another round of votes for the Democratic presidential contenders, which we guess makes this the Texas Three Step -- with more steps to come.
All of which brings us to Bill Clinton, who called Hillary Clinton's Texas delegates Thursday night to shore them up ahead of Saturday's conventions. Bill Clinton, legendary for his flexible approach to definitions, sought to count Democratic national delegates another way -- delegates won in primary states, versus caucus states. As we saw beginning in Iowa, Barack Obama's focus on grassroots organizing has helped him win caucus states. But in the big primary states -- we'll leave out Illinois and New York, for obvious reasons -- Clinton has prevailed.
Bill Clinton sought to persuade the Texas delegates that means something, according to ABC News' Political Radar blog, which sat in on the call: "Right now, among all the primary states, believe it or not, Hillary's only 16 votes behind in pledged delegates and she's gonna wind up with the lead in the popular vote in the primary states. She's gonna wind up with the lead in the delegates [from primary states]....It's the caucuses that have been killing us."
Never mind the obvious point that caucuses matter, too. The focus on Texas is interesting because things remain unsettled there. Clinton won the primary vote but at the moment Obama appears to have more Texas delegates after winning the caucuses that came that same election night.
None of those delegates, though, are committed, as Political Radar points out. They can change their minds, and candidates. The final results aren't, well, final, until June 7, and the state convention. And depending on how the national delegates -- won in primaries and caucuses -- are lined up then, Texas could prove to be a crucial and last-minute battleground.
Imagine the lobbying then if one or the other candidate is riding a groundswell.
-- Scott Martelle
At least in Missouri. Apparently cadres of Paulistas read the Missouri Republican rule book and burrowed into the party structure from the inside this weekend -- at the county caucus meetings.
Usually attended only by party apparatchiks, the caucuses help set the official party platform and deal with internal rules issues. The kind of stuff most folks ignore. Not the Paulistas, who swarm ed meetings in St. Louis, Kansas City, Springfield and some rural counties and, as the St. Louis Post-Dispatch put it, "snagged roughly a third of the 2,137 state Republican delegates."
All of which would be yawn-inducing except that "those delegates will determine the state GOP platform this spring and help select the presidential delegates to the national Republican presidential convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul in September."
Also in the weekend caucuses, the Paulistas "won approval for some of their man's key positions, including resolutions for withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, and against the federal Patriot Act and warrantless wiretaps."
The biggest hit: A resolution to be taken up at the state party meeting in the spring to repeal the rule that all of Missouri's 58 delegates go to the winner, John McCain. "We're not holding out an illusion that Ron is going to win the nomination," said Debbie Hopper, Paul's national field director. "This is about calling the Republican Party back to its roots."
Some of the party regulars tried to call foul, saying that many of the Paulistas were Democrats, Libertarians or others ineligible to participate. But St. Louis city Republican chair Judy Zakibe gave credit where it was due. "Our people didn't come out," Zakibe said. "That's what cost us."
It's like the lottery ads say -- you gotta play to win. And the Paulistas played.
-- Scott Martelle
With most states having already finished with their primaries or caucuses for the 2008 presidential race, Texas Democrats are the clear front-runner for most poorly run contest of the year.
It's been more than a week now since the Democrats in the Lone State State conducted their much-publicized two-step process -- a primary by day, a caucus by night. And the second part of that dance card remains a muddled mess.
The Associated Press has been keeping tabs on the sluggish vote count and reported Tuesday that results from barely more than 40% of precinct caucuses had been reported to the state.
Barack Obama led Hillary Clinton, 56% to 44%, and if that holds up, the Texas delegation should be pretty much split down the middle (assuming they get this figured out by the time the national convention convenes in late August in Denver). Clinton won the primary narrowly, giving her 65 delegates to Obama's 61.
The basic problem surrounding the caucus operation was that vastly more numbers of participants showed up than officials were prepared for. One would think the stream of stories about record-shattering turnouts in some of the Democratic contests preceding Texas might have led to better preparation, but apparently not.
The AP story has some delicious detail on some of the other obstacles impeding the vote count. For instance, in Hidalgo County, along the border, the tally "has been stymied by the disappearance of county Democratic chairman Juan Maldonado, who changed his cell phone number after losing re-election and wasn't available for several days at his business."
You can peruse the rest of the story here.
-- Don Frederick
This one is for Ticket readers who are really, really into this Democratic delegate business. After all, why be a spectator when you can actually plan the unfolding history for one of the most dramatic presidential races in recent memory?
A whole bunch of our supremely smart Web tech folks have invented an online Democratic delegate designator for you to play with. You can go here and follow the instructions with check boxes and sliders and award your own party delegates for all the remaining primaries and caucuses, one by one. See how the totals mount for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton state by state.
Then change the numbers for one state and see how it affects the ongoing scenario, tally and race.
You can even throw in how you think the Florida and Michigan situations will finally be resolved and who gets those crucial combined 366 delegates. Also, which side you predict the rest of the superdelegates will line up on.
And it won't cost you one donor dollar.
Although if you want to shower the bloggers with some, that's not allowed.
-- Andrew Malcolm
Campaigning in Casper, Wyo., Friday night for the 12 delegates to come out of Saturday's Democrat ic county caucuses, Sen. Barack Obama refused the notion of becoming the vice presidential candidate on this fall's party ticket.
Obama was asked by a television reporter, "Can you ever see yourself on the same ticket as Sen. Clinton?"
And the freshman Illinois senator replied: "Well, you know, I think it’s premature. You won’t see me as a vice presidential candidate. You know, I’m running for president. We have won twice as many states as Senator Clinton, and have a higher popular vote, and I think we can maintain our delegate count."
Many Democrats have long thought of Obama-Clinton or Clinton-Obama as a dream ticket, offering both the first serious female candidate and the first serious African American candidate for the nation's top two political offices.
Clinton surprisingly broached the idea Wednesday morning after she won the popular vote in Texas and Ohio to regain some momentum after 11 straight ...
Read more Breaking News: Barack Obama rejects VP idea »
Here in the wonderful world of blogging, time is truly relative -- as in the past fades fast, the future is amorphous and the present is all-consuming. But for the rest of you, well, we know you're studiously staring at the computer screen trying to show the boss in the corner office how hard at work you are.
So waste some time with this: Slate's candidate tracker, which graphically shows where the candidates have been busy with appearances. It took forever to load on our workhorse of a laptop but once it does fire up it's fun to see how far this campaign has come. Especially when you look at the lists of the fallen on the right hand side, running alphabetically for the Democrats from Joe Biden to Bill Richardson, and for the Republicans from Sam Brownback to Fred Thompson. And note that the tracker still shows Ron Paul slogging away, even if he seems to have sent the horse back to the barn.
Ah, the memories.
-- Scott Martelle
If this is March and people are traveling willingly TO Wyoming, then there must be an election going on.
Sure enough, the nation's least populated state is the destination today for just about everybody who's left competing for a presidential nomination, both of them. And the spouse of one of them was there yesterday.
In fact, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will both visit Vice President Dick Cheney's hometown of Casper today, not so much to honor him as to honor themselves and to seek support in this weekend's Wyoming caucuses. The windchill in Casper this morning was 12 degrees, which is...
Read more Yee hah, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton hit Wyoming »
Actually, we heard rumors about this a few days ago. But now the Dallas Morning News has found some.
 They are tricky Texas Republicans. They have a choice in Tuesday's presidential primary election between Sen. John McCain of Arizona, who seems to have pretty much wrapped up his party's nomination with about a 700-delegate lead over former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas.
So if there's no real point in confirming McCain or throwing it away on Huckabee, is there anything else to do besides stay home? Yup. Go vote in the Democratic primary.
It's no big deal paperwise to switch over for a year or two. And this way -- wait for it -- these Republicans could vote for Sen. Hillary Clinton. Yes, that one.
Now, why would Republicans cast a ballot for a woman they've loved to hate for oh so long? The point would be to give her ...
Read more Do Texas Republicans plan a surprise for Clinton and Obama? »
Today, as The Ticket noted this morning, the big question was will the polls that show Sen. Barack Obama running very well in today's three primary sites -- Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia -- come true? Or will they be way off as they were when they predicted a big win for him in New Hampshire it seems like months ago?
The rapidity -- one minute after the polls closed -- with which CNN and other news agencies called Virginia for Obama tonight would seem to indicate he's in for a good night all around.
But not before an initial news screwup. Despite early numbers favoring Obama, the Associated Press sent out a preliminary story with the headline: "Clinton wins Virginia Democratic primary." This was quickly corrected.
Sen. John McCain and Mike Huckabee appeared to be in a close race in Virginia based on early results.
--Andrew Malcolm
Washington state Republican Party chair Luke Esser got himself a lecture via CNN a little while ago from Mike Huckabee, with the former Arkansas governor fuming over Esser's decision late Saturday to stop counting results in that state's very tight GOP caucuses.
With John McCain ahead by a couple of percentage points, the party stopped the tally at 87% counted. The Huckabees hollered -- including top strategist Ed Rollins -- and the Washington Republicans started counting again. The count apparently is continuing, and Huckabee obviously is hoping to catch up and land a clean sweep of the weekend Rpublican races.
The caucuses also gave continued life to Ron Paul, who, with 20.6%, was 5 points behind McCain in the incomplete tally. (Maybe the conspiracy theorists in that camp will argue Esser stopped the count to deny Paul a much-needed victory.) The folks at Talking Point Memo have more of the details, including other allegations of voter disenfranchisement -- gasp! Elbows were thrown!
You might say Huckabee was seeing red, but in this case it was a "red" flag.
-- Scott Martelle
Rep. Ron Paul, the oldest person remaining in the presidential race and the only one who's also simultaneously running for Congress (you know, on the off chance he doesn't reach the White House), came in second in the Montana Republican caucuses, right behind former Gov. Mitt Romney.
The 72-year-old onetime ob-gyn, who was the most successful fundraiser among all Republicans last quarter, got 25% of the GOP vote in Big Sky Country to Romney's 38%. Paul also beat Sen. John McCain, who got only 22%, and Mike Huckabee, who trailed with 15%.
In North Dakota, Paul, with 21%, fell behind McCain, at 23%, and Romney, at 36%.
Elsewhere, Paul, a strict constitutionalist who opposes the Iraq war and in 1988 ran for....
Read more Ron Paul makes his move »
Sen. Barack Obama surged into a large 3:1 lead in the first returns from very early Democratic Party primary voting.
In Indonesia.
Where Obama spent four years of his childhood.
At midnight Tuesday Jakarta time, about 100 members of Democrats Abroad began voting at the Marriott Hotel. Unofficial first returns gave Obama 75% of the vote to Hillary Clinton's 25%. "There is a bit of rooting for the hometown boy," Tristram Perry, a public diplomacy officer at the U.S. Embassy, told the Associated Press.
"It's the first time someone who grew up in Indonesia is running for president," he added. Probably a pretty safe statement.
Under a special Democratic Party arrangement, thousands of its voters can cast their ballots around the world in such places as a donut shop in Cambodia, a Starbucks in Thailand, a pub in Ireland and even online. Democrats Abroad will have 22 delegates and 11 votes at the August convention in Denver.
Republicans Abroad is less organized and unrecognized by that party. So it can only assist party members to write their home counties to obtain absentee ballots.
Some 6 million Americans living abroad are eligible to vote. But, alas, only a small fraction bother.
-- Andrew Malcolm
Former Gov. Mitt Romney convincingly won the Maine Republican caucus tonight with about 52% of the vote.
The current GOP front-runner, Arizona Sen. John McCain, is running a distant second with 22% and Rep. Ron Paul, the libertarian-minded longshot, is in a very close third with 19% of the vote. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is trailing badly with only 5%.
With nearly two-thirds of the votes counted, Maine Republican Party Vice Chairman Scott Kauffman said, "It is very sure that former Gov. Romney wins the contest."
Although Maine does not carry the political clout of many other states, it could provide a helpful psychological boost going into nearly two dozen crucial Super Tuesday contests this week for Romney's forces, who lost to McCain in Florida, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Nearly half the delegates necessary to win the Republican nomination will be chosen Tuesday.
In a statement tonight, Romney, who was campaigning today in the upper Midwest after attending the funeral of Gordon Hinckley, the president of the Mormon church, in Salt Lake City, said, "Today the people of Maine joined those from across the nation in casting their vote for conservative change in Washington."
The actual number of Maine delegates he won in the non-binding caucuses will be determined at a state convention in May.
It was a disappointing night for Ron Paul. The campaign of the 72-year-old, 10-term congressman from Texas with the well-financed campaign had hoped to pull an upset in independent-minded Maine. And he did come close to embarrassing McCain for second place, which Paul also won in the Louisiana and Nevada caucuses.
Maine Democrats hold their statewide caucuses next weekend.
-- Andrew Malcolm
This could be a big weekend for Rep. Ron Paul's longshot but determined campaign to acquire some Republican delegates in the race for his party's presidential nomination.
The 72-year-old, 10-term Texas congressman has been largely dissed and dismissed by party politicians and the media in this lengthening primary race. But his loyal followers have been more than generous in recent weeks, donating nearly $20 million in the last three months of 2007 to make him the most successful GOP fundraiser then and the only one to increase his donations every quarter last year.
According to Paul's website, supporters have given an additional $5 million-plus since Jan. 1.
On Friday, Republicans started three days of caucusing in Maine, a largely ...
Read more Ron Paul's big chance for a modest splash »
At last, the news we've all been waiting for. A new University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll just out has discovered that fully 86% of Iowans "had fun" during their recent caucuses.
Really. Isn't that wonderful?
According to a university news release, "Despite the chaos of a record turnout, long lines and crowded rooms, Iowans had fun at their caucuses on Jan. 3."
It's just so heartwarming to know that what the rest of us thought for so many months had something to do with choosing party nominees for president of the United States was, for a very large majority of the quarter-million Iowans who caucused, actually a whole lot of fun. Kind of like those summer fairs with the hog contests and that cow butter-carving that we heard so much about when politicians were working the sticky-handed crowds eating everything conceivable fried.
The random telephone poll of 306 Democratic and 223 Republican caucus-goers between Jan. 5-10 found, according to David Redlawsk, poll director: "Iowans didn't caucus just for the fun of it, but most seem to have discovered the fun factor in caucusing."
It was the first caucus for 46% of those surveyed, many of whom said they caucused to oppose one candidate rather than support one. Across parties, an overwhelming number (95%) said they attended because it was the "right thing to do," 89% came to support a candidate, 69% to support their party, 40% to support a particular issue, 27% to oppose a candidate and 19% because someone asked them to go.
While 86% reported having fun, only 26% listed fun as their reason for going.
Oh, and despite their more complex, often chaotic voting procedures, more Democrats (88%) reported "having fun" than Republicans (83%). Come to think of it, the Iowa caucuses, which seem like only a year ago, were just a whole lot of fun too for the rest of us to read about. And without the ice and snow.
-- Andrew Malcolm
LAS VEGAS -- Amid all the confusion of the Nevada Democratic caucuses, from people leaving in frustration to Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama each claiming separate victories, an interesting pattern emerged. And building on what happened in the "non-primary" that Democrats conducted in Michigan, it is going to make next weekend's South Carolina primary "verrrrry interesting," as Arte Johnson used to say.
Nevada's caucus was the first full Democratic presidential nominating contest to include a significant number of black voters, and Obama won overwhelmingly here in predominately black Precincts 4028 and 4461, reflecting what national polls show has been a significant shift in support by black voters from Clinton to Obama.
Obama was similarly strong in in last week’s Michigan primary. "Uncommitted" –- seen largely as votes for Obama and John Edwards, whose names were not on the ballot –- took 68% of the African American vote, with Clinton getting 30%, according to exit polls. But those results came in a race in which only half the candidates were on the ballot and no one was awarded any delegates, dampening turnout.
On Saturday, the votes mattered. Obama’s success among black voters wasn’t enough to give him the win. About 8% of Nevada residents are African American, compared with nearly 13% nationally. But Obama’s growing support among African Americans could shape ...
Read more It doesn't necessarily stay in Vegas »
LAS VEGAS -- Not sure what today's results from the Nevada caucuses and South Carolina Republican primary mean? Well, that's why they make the Sunday morning shows (and no, there is not a movement in Congress to rename it "Spinday").
On CBS' "Face The Nation," you get John Edwards and, in a lovely moment of irony, David Axelrod, who was one of Edwards top advisors four years ago but is working for Barack Obama this time around, along with Politico's Roger Simon to keep them honest.
"Fox News Sunday" has Mitt Romney, and "ABC This Week" has Rudy Giuliani. "CNN Late Edition" has what might be the most interesting panel of the day with South Carolina Democratic Rep. James Clyburn and Michigan Democratic Rep. Carolyn Kilpatrick, chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, who will probably be looking ahead to next week's South Carolina Democratic primary on the heels of the Nevada caucuses today and the party's Michigan non-primary last week. And Clyburn is part of a double-header -- he's also on C-SPAN'S "Newsmakers" show at 7 a.m. and 3 p.m. Pacific time.
And if that's not enough spin, we offer you this:
-- Scott Martelle
Boy, oh, boy! Hidden behind all the hoopla, headlines and the Nevada caucus victories of Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton is one little-noticed but stunning political development and number:
Ron Paul, the one-time Libertarian candidate and 10-term Republican congressman from Texas, was in second place. That's right, Second Place. The 72-year-old ob-gyn who's always on the end of the line at GOP debates or barred altogether, was running ahead of John McCain, Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, in fact, ahead of....
Read more Breaking News: A Ron Paul surge in Nevada »
LAS VEGAS -- Oh, irony of ironies.
As we all know by now, Michigan and Florida got themselves in a boatload of trouble with the national Democratic and Republican parties by trying to jump to near the head of the line of states that get to vote first for the presidential nominees.
It cost the Democrats in Michigan and Florida their convention delegates -- and, maybe more importantly, the presence of candidates campaigning. The Republicans in those states lost half their delegates. In both party's cases, they lost a lot of face.
But now, especially on the Republican side, it's beginning to look as though those two states may have done themselves even more of a disservice. Nobody could have foreseen this, but if there is no clear winner coming out of the massive -- and de facto -- national primary on Feb. 5, when more than 20 states vote, the states that hold their nominating contest after that could be in play as kingmakers.
See you in Montana, New Mexico (Republicans only) and South Dakota on June 3.
-- Scott Martelle
LAS VEGAS -- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid -- known hereabouts as the senior senator -- was one of the key players behind the Democratic National Committee's approval for Nevada to hold Saturday's caucuses.
Reid has been scrupulously neutral in the nomination race, which has boiled down to two current Senate colleagues -- Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama -- and one former colleague -- John Edwards. And Reid has maintained that the decision by his son, Rory Reid, to sign on as Clinton's Nevada campaign manager was not a family commitment.
So what is Reid going to do Saturday, when the caucuses begin at 11 a.m. (which is about when Vegas wakes up)? From the state Democratic party release: "Reid's precinct caucus will take place at the Community Center in his hometown of Searchlight. Because his position as Senate Majority Leader requires Reid to work with all senators to deliver results for Nevada, he will caucus as 'uncommitted,' rather than declaring support for a specific candidate."
Yep, still uncommitted. He should have moved to Michigan.
-- Scott Martelle
LAS VEGAS -- When the Nevada Democratic Party, with the national party's blessing, decided to move its caucuses to Jan. 19, voters in places like Elko were all atwitter. The reasoning was that as the main population center in northeastern Nevada, with 16,700 people (the security line at LAX might have more people in it), the major candidates would have to visit.
Someone, finally, would pay attention to the "rurals," as they're called here, which is pretty much everywhere across the deserts and mountains outside Las Vegas and Reno-Carson City. And a few politicians did come. But it wasn't the political lovefest they had anticipated.
Until now.
Beginning with a John Edwards rally at 8:30 tonight, four of the major presidential contenders will be holding rallies in Elko over a span of about 18 hours. On Friday, residents might as well take the whole day off work and watch the spectacle. Mitt Romney -- the only Republican spending any time in Nevada -- starts the day with a 7:40 a.m. rally at Adobe Middle School. (Will they need a hall pass?) Hillary Rodham Clinton has a rally at 1 p.m. at the Elko Indian Colony Gymnasium, and 90 minutes later Barack and Michelle Obama rally supporters and the curious at Elko High School.
And in a mark of how upside the whole process has become, Elko County Republicans outnumber Democrats 8,668 to 3,878, or more than 2 to 1. But Elkonans, if that's what they're called, will see three Dems and one Republican.
Which makes you wonder how the turnout will skew come Saturday.
-- Scott Martelle
Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd gave up his hopeless campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination earlier this month.
But he'd still like some more of your money.
In an e-mail sent to supporters headlined "Retiring" to get their attention, Dodd revealed that after some time off with his family from a grueling campaign that, he says, "changed the debate at home and abroad," he really isn't contemplating retiring from the Senate. LOL
It seems he needs to "retire" his campaign debt. He doesn't reveal how big the leftover campaign financial burden is, but the attached form is equipped to take anything from $25 to $2,300. Dodd said he's very busy right now restoring the Constitution, fighting "that terrible FISA bill" and working to put another Democrat in the White House.
But he sure would appreciate some donations here.
Who wouldn't actually?
--Andrew Malcolm
LAS VEGAS -- This feels sort of like those Wall Street guys who sell stocks short, then make a mint when the company -- or the economy -- tumbles. The folks over at Time magazine are wondering whether economic uncertainty, and fears of a recession, might salvage Mitt Romney's presidential bid.
In the first two major nominating contests, the Michigan native and former Massachusetts governor who made a mint as a venture capitalist kept winning the silver, as he put it, coming in second to Mike Huckabee in Iowa and to John McCain in New Hampshire.
Then came Michigan, where eight years of hemorrhaging jobs have led to a 7.4% unemployment rate, and Romney got his first significant gold. While many ascribed that to his roots in Michigan -- his father was a popular governor there in the 1960s -- his campaign in the state focused on the economy. Not all economists were impressed with his message, but enough Michigan Republicans were.
As economic fears spread -- tumbling shares on Wall Street both reflect and exacerbate that -- the economy has seized even more of the political stage for both the Democrats and the Republicans. In Michigan, exit polls showed that among Republicans concerned about the economy, Romney was the clear victor.
That won't help Romney in South Carolina, where evangelicals hold the key, but it could help him here in Nevada -- and likely explains why he's campaigning here among the gamblers rather than down South among the palmettos. (Word is the Las Vegas Review-Journal will release a poll tomorrow showing Romney with a big lead in Nevada.)
With Feb. 5 looming, the national polls in flux and all campaigns subject to the winds of narrative -- has McCain peaked? Did Giuliani's Feb. 5 strategy leave him out of the race too long? -- economic fears and a CEO's resume could help Romney.
But then, a turnaround on Wall Street and more suicide bombers in Iraq over the next two weeks could change everything.
-- Scott Martelle
A judge in Nevada has just ordered MSNBC to include Rep. Dennis Kucinich in Tuesday's Democratic Party presidential debate in Las Vegas or he will cancel the forum.
Senior Clark County District Court Judge Charles Thompson vowed to issue an injunction halting the nationally televised debate if MSNBC failed to comply. Kucinich had filed a lawsuit seeking to be included just this morning.
(UPDATE: Late Monday, according to the Associated Press, NBC indicated that if Judge Thompson officially signed his order Tuesday morning, it would appeal that decision to the Nevada Supreme Court, seeking to keep Kucinich out of the evening's debate.)
The judge ruled Monday it was a matter of fairness and Nevada voters would benefit from hearing from more than just Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama. Kucinich had been invited to participate in the 6 p.m. Pacific debate Tuesday, but that invitation was rescinded last week following the ....
Read more Breaking News: Judge says MSNBC must include Kucinich »
Rep. Dennis Kucinich has just sued NBC-TV in Las Vegas over his exclusion from the MSNBC debate among top Demcoratic candidates in Nevada tomorrow.
According to the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Kucinich filed his lawsuit moments ago seeking a temporary restraining order allowing him to participate in the nationally-televised debate among Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama. A copy of the lawsuit is available here.
As reported here over the weekend, Kucinich was originally informed that he was invited. But that invitation was later rescinded, prompting an outraged press release about giant corporate powers controlling voters' access to all candidates.
Kucinich's lawsuit claims, “Kucinich is a credible and serious candidate in Nevada, where he is actively and vigorously campaigning and has statewide headquarters in Las Vegas.” The suit could threaten tomorrow evening's debate.
It comes just days before the hotly-contested Nevada caucuses that has drawn all the Democratic candidates, seeking votes and endorsements. A District Court hearing was scheduled for this afternoon.
Kucinich's exclusion from Tuesday's debate is the ....
Read more Breaking News: Kucinich sues NBC over Nevada debate »
Bloomfield Hills, Mich. -- As if there weren't enough real-world primaries going on, the folks at MySpace and Facebook have been holding their own online primaries, as our colleague David Sarno writes in today's Calendar section. And while the online primaries are as meaningless as the Michigan Democratic primary, the results are interesting.
Any online poll -- and that's what these "virtual primaries" are -- relies on self-selected, and self-activated, participants. So the 150,000 people who took part in the MySpace primary reflect no meaningful political base. Near as we can figure, voters didn't even have to prove they were old enough, or a U.S. citizen. The results, though, indicate where the loyalties lie among that self-selected group of Internet users.
And there were no surprises. On the Democratic side, Barack Obama -- whose support is heavy among left-leaning upper-middle-class Democrats -- took 46% compared to 31% for Hillary Rodham Clinton and 8% for John Edwards. Among the Republicans, Ron Paul's net-revolutionaries clicked mightily, giving him 36% to Rudy Giuliani's 18% and Mike Huckabee's 16%.
In the real primaries and caucuses, Obama won Iowa and Clinton won New Hampshire. On the Republican side, Paul has barely figured in the final outcomes: Huckabee won Iowa and McCain -- who didn't place well at all in the online primary -- won New Hampshire. The MySpace results also contradict national preference polls. As indicators, the virtual primaries just aren't there.
So what lessons do such polls offer? First, sites like MySpace are keen to tie into political activism, and these polls have more to do with marketing and branding than with elections. But look beyond the vote breakdown and you get a glimpse of social and political networking. Political strategists have learned that the Internet is a great organizing and fundraising tool, able to move information to people quickly, and to provide an easily-accessed base of information on everything from events to how to get lawn signs.
But in the end, it's just a place to do a little research and have a detached conversation. Sure, you can rally the faithful there, but campaign strategists know that person-to-person contact is the best way to build a movement. Otherwise, why have all these offices?
-- Scott Martelle
Rep. Dennis Kucinich, the perennial Democratic presidential candidate who just as perennially loses, is fast becoming a perennial debate absentee too.
The former Cleveland mayor, who has been spending the better part of a year now campaigning everywhere but his home district, was left out of the Des Moines Register's debate last month because he did not have a separate campaign office in the state and didn't meet polling minimums. Then last weekend he was left out of the ABC-TV Democratic debate in New Hampshire, much as Reps. Duncan Hunter and Ron Paul were excluded from the Fox News Channel Republican debate the next evening. So Paul went before his own nationwide audience on NBC's "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno" and wowed that host.
Kucinich thought he'd made the cut for this coming week's MSNBC Democratic ....
Read more Dear Dennis, You re hereby uninvited to the debate »
The candidate wasn't within 1,500 miles, but Mitt Romney scored a victory just now. He won most of the first Republican delegates selected in Wyoming today, which had moved its county selection date up on the calendar to attract more attention from candidates who usually just fly over most of the Rocky Mountain states.
The Republican candidates did flood the state with campaign literature. But Romney, who lived next-door in Utah while reviving the Winter Olympics, did that and then also visited twice while three of his five sons also worked the state; one son, Josh, owns a ranch in southwest Wyoming. Romney has quietly made stops in several of the less-populated once-reliably Republican states including Montana and Wyoming. And today he was rewarded with at least a minor public relations victory, seven delegates, just four days after his disappointing second-place finish in Iowa.
"Today," Romney said in a statement to be issued shortly, "the people of Wyoming took the first step towards bringing true conservative change to Washington. From Gillette to Jackson and Riverton to Cheyenne, my family and I visited Wyoming many times, meeting with residents and addressing the issues most important to voters in the Cowboy State."
It's not big like the win in Iowa by Mike Huckabee, who got none of Wyoming's delegates, something of an embarrassment since former Wyo. Gov. Jim Geringer is a Huckabee national co-chair. Nor did big-city boy Rudy Giuliani win any. Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter, two conservatives who both campaigned in the Cowboy state, each won delegates, two for Thompson, one for Hunter. Ron Paul, a Texan who also campaigned there and beat Giuliani in Iowa, won none.
In one line of his upcoming statement sure to go down well in Wyoming, Romney added: "I will continue to campaign in this important state as the remainder of its delegates are selected and through to the general election in November. This is just the beginning." The candidate also vowed to fight for restoration of the half of Wyoming's total 28 delegates rescinded by the Republican National Committee as punishment for moving its selection date ahead of Feb. 5. Romney's Wyoming victory coincided with release of a new TV ad for New Hampshire, revealing some more rhetorical passion than other recent Romney ads.
All the GOP candidates were in New Hampshire for Tuesday's primary and focusing on tonight's ABC-TV debates and tomorrow's partial Republican debate on Fox News.
--Andrew Malcolm
We have to give Bill Richardson credit for trying to make the best of a bad situation -- and attempting to expand the political vocabulary.
The traditional saying is that there are "three tickets out of Iowa" -- meaning that a presidential candidate who does not finish first, second or third in Iowa's caucuses might as well mail it in. Richardson ran fourth in Thursday night's Democratic contest ... and insisted that being part of the "Final Four" was good enough.
Richardson, in his bid to become the nation's first Latino president, worked Iowa hard. He won some good press with some early ads that used wry humor to tout his credentials (the so-called "job interview" spots). During the summer, he showed some movement in the polls. But eventually, he became one of the afterthoughts in a race dominated by the intense jockeying among Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards.
Richardson got crushed in the caucuses, garnering only 2% of the vote. But that put him slightly ahead of Joe Biden and Chris Dodd (who responded to their poor showings by folding their tents). And it was enough for him to pledge to carry his White House quest on to New Hampshire.
With Richardson lacking an iota of momentum, we eagerly await how he will parse the results in the Granite State's Tuesday primary.
-- Don Frederick
Running for president is a tough business, as it should be. Candidates spend long hours wheedling money from people so they can ask others to please vote for them. And those crowds know they have the leverage and they grill the candidates and suck up to them and ask for endless autographs and photos and tell stories about their troubles. And the candidates listen, as they must and should.
And the crowds' cheers are great. And the laudatory introductions. But the days are long. And so are the nights flying somewhere new to start another long day very early. And the fatigue is great.
And only a few win of the many who try.
Delaware's Sen. Joe Biden knew the end of his latest presidential effort was near Thursday night as the Iowa caucus voting began. Biden has spent who knows how many days traveling Iowa and shaking hands and talking earnestly about serious subjects and inane subjects with people he'll never see again.
The chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee was visibly frustrated with how the long race had played out. The Times' Peter Wallsten asked the veteran senator why he and other candidates, such as Connecticut's Sen. Chris Dodd, with long records of government experience somehow could never find their way out of the bottom rungs of the Democratic race.
“This," said Biden, "is about celebrity. You’ve never given any of us a chance. You know in your heart I’m more qualified than any of these guys up top. I know you can’t say yes or no, but I know you know.”
He charged that The Times and other newspapers rarely mentioned him in political stories, ensuring his lackluster performance and obscurity. When a reporter suggested that Biden had a chance to make his case to Iowa voters, he shot back that it was a dishonest assertion.
“Don’t be a phony, OK?” he said.
Shortly after that scene, Biden (and Dodd) dropped out of the race. Biden issued this statement:
“I am not going away. I’m returning to the Senate as the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and will continue to ensure that we protect the nation’s security and show our country that Democrats know how to keep America safe, keep our commitment to our troops and restore our country’s respect in the world.”
-- Andrew Malcolm
OK, he didn't get the third place that Ron Paul said he thought his campaign might reach in Iowa. He got fifth, 10%. Which, as we noted earlier, is better than the 4% that Rudy Giuliani got. But then like most Americans, Rudy didn't put that much effort into campaigning in Iowa.
The next big test comes Tuesday in New Hampshire, where the libertarian-like license plate -- Live Free or Die -- gives Paulunteers hope they might score an even larger surprise. Everybody except good ol' boy Fred Thompson has put serious efforts into the Granite state.
John McCain, who won New Hampshire in 2000, seems to be closing in on Mitt Romney there. Rudy is trying hard. If he can tear himself away from being on one national TV show after another, Iowa GOP caucus winner Mike Huckabee will campaign there. But without the large cadre of resident....
Read more Ron Paul beats Giuliani but loses to Fox News »
While you were sleeping, the chartered jet of the third-place finisher in the Iowa Democratic caucus winged its way from Des Moines to Manchester, N.H. And it sounds like some decisions were made on that plane that may alter the course of that party's presidential race.
At her concession speech in Des Moines on Thursday night, Hillary Clinton was all gracious and determined and smiling. But hours later on that flight someone named Mark Penn, who happens to be her chief political strategist, ominously told a gaggle of reporters, including The Times' Peter Nicholas, that the campaign's focus needs to shift now onto, you might have guessed, someone named Barack Obama.
The Illinois senator happens to be the first-place finisher in those same caucuses and now Clinton, once the inevitable Democratic nominee, is playing catch-up. Things could get nasty with some pretty sharp media contrasts made in coming days, it would seem. "This has been very much a referendum on her,'' said Penn. "And people will take a harder look at the choice and the kind of president who will be needed in these times.''
Penn hinted that the Clinton campaign may be poised to mount a more aggressive campaign in New Hampshire than in Iowa. "Time and again in the Democratic primaries," he said, ...
Read more Clinton aides hint that now things'll get nasty »
What the Hill happened to her?
Hillary Clinton had everything on her side, it seemed. Name recognition. A nationwide network of political contacts from a generation of party work. Dozens of endorsements, albeit from aging singers, pols and athletes. A vaunted political operation from her husband's numerous successes. Her popular husband himself. A detailed grasp of policy. A steely determination. A sharp, calculating mind. More than $100 million. And, until Thursday night, a sense of inevitability about her Democratic nomination and even coronation as the next president, the first first lady to do that, and a triumphant return to the White House.
Now, BOOM! That's gone. She blew it.
But how?
Turns out, a lot of those alleged advantages were actually negative baggage. Every presidential election is about change. She tried to persuade a record 239,000 Iowan caucusgoers that she was the change agent, the anti-Bush, who would end the Iraq war but probably, maybe, likely not bring all the troops home right away. Then she tried to talk about our future by talking about her past.
Her "experience" was being first lady at the end of the last century, though the documentary proof of her active policy involvement remains locked in an Arkansas library. Then, the New York Times discloses...
Read more How Hillary Clinton blew it »
The Des Moines Register's last pre-caucus poll was, as always, eagerly awaited. But when it was posted late at night on New Year's Eve, those who didn't like its figures -- especially the Hillary Clinton and John Edwards campaigns -- quickly trashed it.
Although the precise final caucus results are not yet in, this much is clear: the newspaper's polling unit nailed it.
The survey showed Barack Obama up by seven percentage points in the Democratic presidential race, with Clinton and Edwards in a virtual dead heat behind him. That's how the actual caucus played out -- Obama with a solid win; Edwards and Clinton battling it out for second place (with the former first lady ultimately edged out for that spot).
The batch of polls preceding the Register's had mostly been favorable for Clinton. And none of those that followed gave Obama such a substantial lead.
The embarrassment among the last-minute polls was the survey by the American Research Group. Conducted Monday through Wednesday, it gave Clinton a nine-point lead.
In the Republican race, the Register found Mike Huckabee up by six points -- a result that came when a couple of other surveys conducted around the same time had shown Mitt Romney on the rise. Huckabee ended up scoring a slightly more impressive win (in this case, virtually all of the last-minute polls gave Huckabee roughly the same lead as the Register had).
Iowa's leading newspaper may not know how to orchestrate a vigorous candidate debate. But it lived up to its reputation for knowing how to predict a caucus outcome.
-- Don Frederick
Beyond the obvious matter of who wins, we're wondering:
* Can a candidate stiff Iowa and not suffer irreparable damage in future contests?
Republican Rudy Giuliani, after some cursory campaigning in the state, clearly surrendered earlier this week. One result: He has all but dropped off the radar screen of late. Giuliani hopes for a respectable showing in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, but a back-of-the-pack showing in Iowa could hinder that effort.
* Does organization -- and tons of money -- trump enthusiasm?
The face-off between the two main Republican rivals in the state, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, most obviously frames this question. As detailed by the Boston Globe here, the two campaigns could hardly be more different in their infrastructure (and in the personalities projected by the two candidates).
* Is relying on younger voters, less partisan ones and those who have not participated in previous caucuses a winning formula?
In previous campaigns, even broaching this scenario would probably have gotten a consultant fired. But Democrat Barack Obama and his advisors early on saw this as their best path to victory, ceding large numbers of activists -- and many older party members -- to Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. The strategy caused grumbling at times among Obama's financial backers, but recent polls have shown it could be vindicated. Then again, tonight's results may show that trying to predict a caucus through polling is a futile exercise.
* Will the Ron Paul boomlet -- so obvious in the passion among those who have embraced him and their willingness to donate money to the cause -- manifest itself in actual votes?
Paul's support has seemed more extensive in New Hampshire than Iowa, so to some degree this question may be more pertinent next week. Still, a poor Paul showing tonight -- say, something not close to double digits -- is sure to cause political traditionalists to keep wondering if there's any there there.
-- Don Frederick
The Iowa caucuses first gained a modicum of national attention in 1972, when a surprisingly strong second-place finish by Democratic insurgent George McGovern helped chart his course to a presidential nomination. Four years later, Iowa's profile spiked when Jimmy Carter built his early momentum there (though technically, he did not finish first in the night's voting).
Since then, the caucuses have been irrelevant in contested races only once -- in 1992. One of Iowa's own senators, Tom Harkin, sought the Democratic nomination that year, causing his rivals to cede the state to him and focus on New Hampshire. And among the Republicans, Pat Buchanan took a pass on the caucuses, choosing New Hampshire as the initial battleground in his ultimately unsuccessful bid to derail then-President George H.W. Bush.
Sometimes, winning in Iowa has proved only a momentary triumph for a candidate who eventually fell by the wayside. But the last time -- in both parties -- an Iowa winner in a competitive contest failed to capture the nomination prize was in 1988. Here are the results in those races:
DEMOCRATS
2004: John Kerry* (38%), John Edwards (32%), Howard Dean (18%), Richard Gephardt (11%) and Dennis Kucinich (1%)
2000: Al Gore* (63%), Bill Bradley (37%)
1988: Dick Gephardt (31%), Paul Simon (27%), Michael Dukakis* (22%) and Bruce Babbitt (6%)
1984: Walter Mondale* (49%), Gary Hart (17%), George McGovern (10%), Alan Cranston (7%), John Glenn (4%), Reubin Askew (3%) and Jesse Jackson (2%)
1980: Jimmy Carter* (59%), Ted Kennedy (31%)
1976: "Uncommitted" (37%), Jimmy Carter* (28%), Birch Bayh (13%), Fred R. Harris (10%), Morris Udall (6%), Sargent Shriver (3%) and Henry Jackson (1%)
1972: Edmund Muskie (36%), George McGovern* (23%), Hubert Humphrey (2%), Eugene McCarthy (1%), Shirley Chisholm (1%) and Henry Jackson (1%)
*Went on to win nomination
REPUBLICANS
2000: George W. Bush* (41%), Steve Forbes (30%), Alan Keyes (14%), Gary Bauer (9%), John McCain (5%) and Orrin Hatch (1%)
1996: Bob Dole* (26%), Pat Buchanan (23%), Lamar Alexander (18%), Steve Forbes (10%), Phil Gramm (9%), Alan Keyes (7%), Richard Lugar (4%) and Maurice Taylor (1%)
1988: Bob Dole (37%), Pat Robertson (25%), George H.W. Bush* (19%), Jack Kemp (11%) and Pete Du Pont (7%)
1980: George H.W. Bush (32%), Ronald Reagan* (30%), Howard Baker (15%), John Connally (9%), Phil Crane (7%), John B. Anderson (4%) and Bob Dole (2%)
1976: Gerald Ford* defeats Ronald Reagan (numbers not available)
*Went on to win nomination
-- Don Frederick
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